If Hamas accepts the deal, Netanyahu has no choice but to go along since it was Israel who proposed the deal. But a deal could topple his government. Details below.
A Moment of Truth
Eurointelligence sums up the situation as a Moment of Truth.
Hamas has until tonight to respond to the Egypt mediated proposal of a hostage deal. If they agree to the deal, Benjamin Netanyahu would have no choice but to accept. But Netanyahu is also playing for his own political survival. After bowing to the pressures of members of Israel’s war cabinet to agree on a hostage deal with Hamas using the invasion of Rafah as leverage, Netanyahu flipped yesterday by assuring his far-right ministers Itamar Ben Givr and Bezalel Smotrich, who oppose the deal, that they will go into Rafah anyway, that this is not the end of the war, and that they will not accept any deal. The Biden administration is now floating the idea of suspending certain arms deliveries if Israel were to go into Rafah.
That is more that a bit contradictory. Allegedly Netanyahu would have no choice but to accept the deal, while simultaneously telling his coalition partners he won’t honor the deal.
And there’s Biden, proposing more red lines on military aid that he won’t honor.
It is a tragedy that Israel’s attempt to teach Hamas a lesson caused such a collateral damage, not only for Palestinian lives, but also for how Israel is seen in the world. Rafah would cross the line for many countries. There is already talk of an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, and Netanyahu’s plea to Joe Biden to prevent this as if the US could do anything about it. Student protests in the US also signal that US support for Israel may no longer be so steadfast in the future as it has been in the past. There is also a question of how much longer Arab states can hold on to the promise of normalisation if Israel crosses this particular red line. The moment of choice between realpolitik and ideological warfare is about to come.
European and Arab foreign ministers, meanwhile, met in Riyadh on the sidelines of a two-day World Economic Forum event to discuss how to join forces in advancing the two-state solution. As one of the organisers of this meeting, Norway’s foreign minister Espen Barth Eide, put it:
“If we want to move this two-state solution forward it will not happen from the parties. I do not believe that Israel is ready to negotiate at this point, and I do not think that the US is ready to take the necessary leadership.”
Biden has proven he has no leadership, on anything.
Josep Borrell [High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy] invited Arab leaders to present their proposals for a two-state solution, and wants EU countries to invite them to Brussels for discussions, writes Euractiv. His hope is that a proposal from the Arab states would force European countries to overcome their divisions and work towards a joint solution. Several EU member states are also expected to recognise the state of Palestine soon. So far, eight of the 27 EU member states recognise Palestine, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia, Sweden and Cyprus. France’s foreign minister linked the question of recognition to a strategy towards a two state solution.
On three occasions, Netanyahu has crossed Biden’s red lines, only to be rewarded with Biden seeking more military aid for Israel.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson delivered enough Republican votes for the legislation to pass.
What’s in the Hamas Deal?
We finally have some details as explained by the Wall Street Journal.
- The first stage would involve the release of at least 20 to 33 hostages for a period of calm that could last up to 40 days.
- The pause could then be extended at a rate of one day for each hostage released. Israel in return would release 20 Palestinian prisoners for each child, civilian woman, elderly person or wounded hostage. For each female soldier freed, Israel would release 40 Palestinian prisoners, with half of them serving life prison sentences.
- A second phase would include at least a six-week cease-fire during which Hamas and Israel would agree on a larger hostage release and an extended pause in fighting that could last up to a year.
What’s with this “period of calm” phraseology? How does it differ from a truce?
Regardless, this looks like a good deal for Hamas. If Israel does not honor it (or if it does) Netanyahu may be ousted. He is hanging by a thread.
Hamas should take the deal. Then it will be up to both sides to honor it.
What Color Are Biden’s Red Lines?
On March 10, I asked Are Biden’s Red Lines to Netanyahu Really Yellow or Green?
Presumably you know the answer now, but if not, please consider this idle threat: Biden Threatens Sanctions on Israeli Soldiers Yet Wants More Money for Israel
If you are going to have red lines, I suggest they should be red.
Regarding red lines with China, please see China Crossed Biden’s Red Line on Ukraine, So What?
no chance, Netanyahu wants his genocide…
When the marxists crazies in Seattle declared their autonomy from the US government, burned police stations and federal court houses… CNN called that “mostly peaceful protesting” (with flames and chaos in the background of their broadcast).
When a bunch of idiots paraded, unarmed, through open doors at the US capitol building, while armed capitol police watched with arms folded and a bored look on their faces — that was supposedly an insurrection.
Now a bunch of violent marxists at UCLA have again declared autonomy from the US government. They are physically assaulting students who attempt to enter campus to attend classes – unless the students salute a cause they probably don’t know about and definitely don’t care about. UCLA administrators have tolerated and now created an unsafe environment for students, while appeasing insurrectionists who have formally declared autonomy against the US government.
Are we expected to take Merrick Garland and the US department of justice seriously? Formally declaring one’s independence from the US government and threatening violence is OK … but making an admittedly stupid form of protest about a dubious election is somehow insurrection? (I am saying there were a lot of anomalies in the voting, I suspect an honest count would have been very close to 50/50 and who knows which candidate actually “won” the 50/50 tie breaker).
More third world, banana republic legal system bullsh!t
Both the US and Israel are known for not keeping their word. (NATO/Ukraine). How can anyone trust these two parties?
What the &*#( does that have to do with marxists rioting and committing insurrection at UCLA?
You @William_King have a serious reading comprehension problem
Willie Nelson II has a serious “can’t comprehend TV News problem.” Peaceful demonstrators at UCLA, ‘protesting’ against Israeli slaughter, rape, and baby-killing in Gaza, were attacked by pro-zionist Zionist rioters while being denied police protection.
Are you sucking on the copy of the US constitution you piss on, Willie?
That is, ‘pro-genocide Zionist rioters,’ the ‘Jews for Genocide’ mob.
According to police in LA municipality, according to UCLA college, and according to students trying to get to class – the marxist protesters are using violence. And most of the marxist have no ideas about Israel or Palestine; they are just trying to cause problems in the USA. The Palestinians (if there are any actual Palestinians in the group?) are foolishly allowing marxists to hijack the Palestinian protest and turn it into chaos.
I spoke against violence in LA. I said nothing pro or con about the situation in Gaza. Do you believe that throwing a temper tantrum and writing insane comments is going to get anyone to support your side? With your behavior, are you trying to convince otherwise neutral Americans that the Israeli’s are right, that you are crazy?
I am going to stick to the bad situation in LA. I don’t have a strong opinion about Gaza, but if anything your comment makes me wonder about the Palestinian cause. The Palestinians might be OK people, but you are crazy
Agitators on college campuses want their universities to divest their holdings of companies involved with Israel. If I’ve learned anything from reading MISH is that this is the hoot of the day sanctions logic.
Universities divest. Jewish alumni stop all donations to universities and put that money into companies targeted by Universities. Jewish alumni stand to make money. Nothing has changed for companies. Universities now have less money going into their endowments.
You are forgetting the part where the universities get sued in civil court for breach of contract, failure to ensure a safe environment, and forced coerced speech (being forced to take a position on something you don’t know about and don’t care).
Minimum, the universities will owe billions in tuition refunds.
Considering the reasons universities were first made tax exempt, their tax exempt status is going to come into doubt too.
UCLA may have some protection as a state school, but that doesn’t make them exempt from federal charges. Private schools are in far more serious trouble.
Biden is also reportedly considering taking in refugees from Gaza. What is to stop that from being another Mariel or Saigon?
Biden is not taking them in, you are, citizen.
“taking in refugees” means facilitating ethnic cleansing. That is, Israel gets rid of the millions of Arabs it despises, and moves them to Western countries that it also despises. Two birds, one stone.
I was talking about what’s going on at US universities last night with the misses over dinner.
I told her that it reminded me of the Vietnam anti-war protests in the late 60s. With things growing increasingly violent I said I expected this to all end with another ‘Kent State’ moment.
Let’s hope not. Another Kent state moment would likely lead to riots all over the country. Or maybe that’s what they want.
All it takes is one Barney Fife to take his bullet out of his shirt pocket…
I was attending Ohio State at the time, and rioting because it was fun and all that. Then after Kent State it wasn’t a game anymore and it got me thinking about why I was doing it.
Kent State lead to the veitnam war ending, these protests have revealed how owned america is by zionism, both good things.
“There is already talk of an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, and Netanyahu’s plea to Joe Biden to prevent this as if the US could do anything about it. Student protests in the US also signal that US support for Israel may no longer be so steadfast in the future as it has been in the past.”
RATIONAL BEINGS DO NOT BELIEVE IN JEWISH FAIRYTALES
68% of Gen Z do not believe in 2500 year old Judo Christian Fairytales.
The world will be a much better place without belief in said Fairytales.
2000 years of fairytale justification for mass murder, enslavement, biological warfare, continental depopulation like the 100 million in the Americas and colonialism is quite enough.
Rational beings retain the capacity to understand this.
Fervent “True Believers” do not.
Gen Z does not generally believe in the holocaust as reported and 30 some percent don’t even know what the holocaust is.
Gen Z will never EVER volunteer to fight for the MIC.
Why would a rational person do this? They won’t.
Only the irrational will volunteer and the rational are continuing to influence the irrational with genuine peer concern.
Gen Z @ 70 M = Gen A @ 40 M
110 M who think murderous boomers and their ideological fairytales are full of shit.
The problem for tyrants?
It is impossible to defeat rationality, all they can do beat it into submission or physically kill it. Plato, Socrates and Pythagorus with Egyptian rationality are a good example of this
Gen Z is not protesting being drafted like the Selfish boomers – they are protesting irrationality. They can see what is happening without it being colorized with illusions of fairytale biblical grandeur. You can’t believe in “gods chosen people” if you don’t believe in Jewish fairytales. Thuggish assholes are just thuggish assholes. Its right in front of you.
Gen Z doesn’t drink or smoke weed they’re not masking the pain of “illusion suppression” with drugs.
This is potentially the most encouraging development is human history.
“Gen Z doesn’t drink or smoke weed they’re not masking the pain of “illusion suppression” with drugs.”
I don’t know about the drinking and smoking habits of Gen Z, but they certainly do mask the “pain” with anti anxiety/anti drepression drugs. They are the most anxious generation alive today.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/mental-health/4234365-over-60-percent-of-gen-z-have-an-anxiety-disorder/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/943832/us-mental-health-treatment-by-generation/
Hamas does not have the hostages is my educated guess or they are so wretched that a release will incriminate them totally. Hence this is kabuki theater. Rafah is doomed as is Nettyyahoo.
Biden desperately needs this Gaza situation resolved and in the rear view. This is splitting his Democratic coalition. On a side note Trump has made recent moves supporting Mike Johnson’s sellout of MAGA supporting more $$$ for Ukraine etc…it’s hilarious watching Trump’s actual moves becoming more establishment. Biden and Trump are both creating a highway to the White House for RFK if he is adroit enough to exploit it.
He’s terrified of going to jail. More desperate, conflicting actions coming up, and the faithful will justify each and every one.
Watch… it’ll turn out “Mike Johnson wasn’t such a bad guy after all… it was a liberal smear campaign that made us think so, but now we know the truth!”
There is n need for Hamas to negotiate. The Israeli lies and cheat and will never honor any agreement. What can one expect from a genocidal regime?
Yes, Hamas is a genocidal regime. You’re finally getting it.
Israel has been propping up Hamas for decades. Jews say it openly in articles and op-eds in Times of Israel, the New York Times, Haaretz, etc. Apparently, Christians are unwilling or unable to say it aloud. It’s why I’m a former Christian and don’t believe in it anymore. I’ve never heard a Christian pray for anyone the USA has bombed or for even the Christian children killed in Gaza. It’s a racially segregated cult, not a religion, at least in the way it’s practiced in the USA.
Wrong, its Israel to has been found guilty of genocide by the iCC.. hopefully Nutty Yahoo will be caught and hanged for his mass murder.
More babble above from the pro-Tehran lobby.
Nope, I’m American and don’t like my country acting like a shill for a parasitic, nasty nation aka Israel. Wise up to the fact that your government is more concerned about Israel than you or your family. That’s because AIPAC bribes our politicians and Epstein other mossad agents create honey pot yo blackmail those that don’t take the bribe.
I wouldn’t trust either of them… ESPECIALLY if I was one of them. They have 80 years of burning hatred built up, and nothing is going to fix that but genocide of one or the other.
European way of negotiations.
Funny!
Why does Palesine need Israel’s concurrence to exis. Did the Israeli’s ask the Palestinians if they could take their land and form Israel? Karma’s a bitch!
First of all Israel didn’t take their land. The problem has always been the Arabs in that area from multiple countries (AKA Palestinians) had a great chance for a state multiple times, which they rejected over & over.
Also please check your spelling.
A reminder that Palestine was 96% Muslim before Jewish immigration and Zionism began in the late 1800s. Jews immigrated (fleeing persecution elsewhere), then demanded a state. Then they expelled a lot of people. Yeah, Israel created a state from what should have been a Palestinian state. Pretty close to “stole” if you ask me.
Actually, yes. If you know your history, in 1947 the UN offered a two state solution. Isreal accepted and Palestine rejected it.
Palestine: “What?? We’re the vast majority of this country. Why do we have to give up 45% of it to the new immigrants?”
Israel: “I know we just got here, but we’d like a country carved out of what would be yours. We have none now, so half sounds pretty good. We’ll take that now and when you attack us, we’ll take more.”
Um, where exactly is this Palastine of which we speak?
I think it was stole by what is currently Israel.
Israel left Gaza in 2005 & look what happened to it since. That’s the real crime.
People are being willfully dishonest in ignoring and hiding the fact that Israel propped up Hamas this whole time. It’s written about openly in the Times of Israel, Haaretz, etc. But “Christians” can’t bring themselves to be honest about it. The Christians in Gaza can, but at least 18 of them are dead because they’re in a racially segregated religion where the white “Christians” in the USA cheer their demise.
Does “left Gaza” mean control over airspace, coastal territory, bombing the airport and threatening to do it again… And destroying Gaza every time the Gazans fight back?
Here’s the deal. Palestine belongs to Palestinians. The native Semites of Palestine have been living in the Jewish concentration camp for seventy five years and are owed reparations. The Ashkenazi invader’s facade has worn thin in Europe and US universities.
Land belongs to whoever is strong enough to take and hold that land. It is what it is and all the whining in the world will never change that fact.
I assume that you hold that same opinion for ‘migrants’ in America.
Settlers: Whites who settled the USA and are settling in the West Bank.
Illegals & terrorists: People who do what the settlers do but they have brown skin.
Yes. Deportations should be immediate.
I agree, and it also doesn’t come with reparations.
“Might makes right” is not a good moral standard. It has not worked out well for minority groups, especially Jews. We need a better standard of justice than who has more guns.
600,000 Jews were ejected from multiple Arab countries in ’48 with two suitcases to their name. Thank goodness Israel took them in. Over half of Baghdad was Jewish.
How many of the 23 surrounding Arab countries will take in the Palestinians as citizens? None.
Israel encouraged the migration to populate their new biblical theme park.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Million_Plan
Condemnable, 100%, even if after and in retaliation of Jewish expulsion of Palestinians. Which should also be condemned, no?
Separately, check your history. Jews lived in many of these countries for many years. Some states restricted Jewish emigration… they wanted to keep their Jews. Other Jews wanted to go to Israel because of Zionism. Yet the Grand Rebbe of Baghdad was opposed to Zionism as late as 1947/8. He rightly pointed out that Jews and Arab had lived together for 1000 years. It was Zionism that was splitting Iraqi Jew from Arab. Not so black and white is it?
Lastly, your implication that no one will take in Palestinians is 1. irrelevant because they are from Palestine (“arabs” aren’t fungible) and 2. could also be said about Jewish refugees, with horrible outcomes in the 1940s. (See the Evian Conference.) Not wanting to accept immigrants is not a marker of undesirability as you imply. That’s kinda racist…
Ashkenazis are less than 20% of Israel’s population. The majority of Israelis are Arab Jews from places like Iraq, Yemen, Morocco and Libya. Then there are Palastinian Jews that trace their roots far further back than the muslims.
There is a synagogue just a few blocks from where my wife was born in Misr El Gedida (Cairo). Hadn’t been used in decades as Nasser drove them into exile. Same probably happened in dozens of countries so now the Jews returned to their homeland.
BTW their used to be Palastinian Jews in Gaza in Gaza’s Jewish Quarter until an Islamist pogrom wiped them out in 1929 with the survivors descendants now in Israel. I bet they want their stolen lands in the Jewish Quarter back but Israel won’t let Jews reclaim that land.
Ashkenazi are closer to 45% of the pop and were very high proportions of the Zionist movement. Most Mizrahi came to Israel in a retaliatory expulsion. Regardless, Palestinians are mostly descended from Jews (and Christians) who converted to Islam. Jewish history belongs to Palestinians just as much as to the Jews and for the same reason.
Can we condemn the Arab expulsion of Jews and the Jewish expulsion of the Palestians? Aren’t both wrong??
This deal does not solve the core problem: Hamas still has influence in Palestine.
FJB!
Hamas can’t take the deal because those hostages are either no longer alive or in such a condition that their release would show the world what monsters Hamas is.
Hamas only needs to come up with 30. That they can do.
I think its a big assumption that any hostages are still alive unless they are being used as concubines or something like that. Very often kidnappers float ransom demands when the victim is already dead (Lindbergh, Jon Benet).
Maybe there are not even thirty.
That is only good for the initial pause. What happens when that period ends? A pause just means the IDF doesn’t advance or respond to aggression. Both sides will use the pause to regroup but there is only limited options for Hamas to rebuild in a month and when the pause ends and Hamas cannot meet the one hostage/ day release then Israel will want blood for all the dead/ missing hostages and will no longer need to pull punches in fear of killing hostages as there won’t be any or many.
At best Hamas can only hope the pause allows international pressure to get Israel to back down permanently. Possible but how likely?
Killed in indiscriminate bombardments maybe? Which reminds me of some released hostages telling the press they were treated well….the footage being removed asap of course…
I love the hide button.
How is it that Hamas can identify with pinpoint precision and imagined accuracy the number of dead Gazans, but it can’t identify how many hostages it has, where they are, and if they are alive or dead? Clearly most of the remaining hostages are dead, or worse than dead …
The same way a Jew-hater can live with the “cognitive dissonance” of Hamas being a liberation organization.
An eye for an eye izza called
Pretty sure the condition of everyone in Gaza these days is exceedingly poor. So would be surprising if the hostages looked any better than the local populace.
I also think quite a few have died from the overall conditions and that far fewer are alive which is why the Hamas leadership isn’t sure how many they have to exchange.
I doubt everyone in Gaza is in a poor condition. Hamas leadership amassed billions in wealth and lived in comfort so don’t you think that they still get to eat first of whatever aid shipments enter Gaza? Multiple reports that aid shipments have been siezed by not just Hamas but by various clans and gangs such that the average person gets little to none. No different to Washington.
The blood of every dead Jew and Arab in this conflict is on Netanyahu’s hands (and mine too as a US taxpayer) for funding and propping up Hamas all these years.
No. It is 200% on Hamas’ head. Don’t try to play the “both sides are equal” card bullshit.
Didn’t Israel start the conflict by demanding a state in a Palestinian muslim land? The rest is retaliation and back and forth violence. Yes, let’s condemn all killing of civilians. I don’t need to check their religions first.