That’s what Powell keeps saying. 
Powell FOMC Statements
- The Fed is in a good place.
- Inflation expectations are well anchored.
- Services inflation heading lower.
- Refused 4 questions on the US dollar.
Wait until we see the impact of health care on services inflation. Then we can discuss point three.
That will be in just a few weeks.
And since oil appears to have bottomed, let’s see what happens at the pump and with energy prices.
Then in March and April huge tax refunds will do two things. The first is add to the deficit and the second is add to inflation.
Nonetheless, there were two dissents today in favor of rate cuts.
Silver
Copper
Dollar Collapse
Am I mistaken or do things look disorderly?
Related Posts
January 14, 2026: The Fed Has Missed Its Inflation Target on Ten Different Measures
The Atlanta Fed tracks various inflation targets. Let’s have a look.
January 28, 2026: Fed Holds Interest Rate Steady at 3.5 to 3.75 Percent. Two Dissents for Cuts
No surprises.
January 27, 2026: Trump Cheers a Plunge of the US Dollar “I Think It’s Great”
“Look at all the business we are doing,” says Trump.
And for a look at what health care will do to the PCE price index, please see Expect a Big Divergence This Year Between CPI and PCE Inflation
Rent and Healthcare go different ways in 2026. Plus there are huge timing issues.
Addendum
Gold and silver reversed hard, but oil went strong up. Energy will add to inflation.
The Fed is not in a good place.
Starting to wonder if POTUS is going to declare bankruptcy on federal debt writing it off.
not going to argue with the commodities comparison. But for the currency comparison that is cherry picked data to fit the trump bad narrative.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Dollar was at an all time high at the beginning of the year.
Here’s a 2 year comparison against those currencies in that last tweet:
Krona: +16.75$
Peso: -0.52%
Swiss Franc: +10.65%
Krone: +7.37%
Rand: +18.05%
Real: -6.06%
Euro: +8.70%
Pound: +7.34%
Aus Dollar: +4.75%
Can Dollar: -1.98%
Yen: -6.11%
See previous link for comparison to more currencies.
When you have such an enormous debt,the only solution is to bring the dollar down.You can either print and expand credit,either cut the rates down or do it all.
In an election year,i guess Trump will do all.
Inflation is never a problem if you lie on numbers.
Powell’s holding the rates might be an act of defiance by him and his supporters.
it will take decades to repair the reputation of usa and trust. after MAGA is gone. if history is our guide to similar episodes in world history
Once lost, trust is very hard to earn…
…and you can throw in a pending Government shutdown just to make sure the pot it well stirred.
I told you so, inflation will run up dramatically as I said here months ago. The rate cuts are a grave and deliberate error. Now they have to start from scratch raising rates from a far higher level. These idiots don’t know their ass from their elbow & if they think they will get away with it they’re dumber than dirt.
Sure,with such a pile of dept,just rise as much as you want rates and you will be definitly cured.
Interesting to see some countries from the Global South decreasing their demand for dollars.
Lots of precious metal mining occurs in the Global South. In a post colonial world, we’re going to have to start playing in those countries by their rules.
Nonsense the ledger move up or down depending of the need of said country…what this means goods in or out there is no other currency for trade…
Nonsense. Brazil settles only 80% of its imports in USD.
Well I guess you don’t know what you’re saying…
Russia settles trades with India and China in own Currencies or The Yuan. And others like Dirham etc.
Electricity and computer memory costs also soaring. The dollar collapse is no mystery. No one trusts Trump, and Trump is the face of the USA.
Biden froze Russian assets and that is main reason for the loss of Trust. Trump just accelerated it. with his eccentricity. And the EU not only followed suit. But us is trying to steal Russia’s assets enjoying the interest accrued from them.
Pl eeas “But is trying”, instead but us is trying
It’s the debt,not Trump.when you live such a long time on debt,you pay for it one way or the other.It’s true for individuals as much as for countries.
You need to keep inflation high to kill the debt.
Fun facts: The total world wide estimated weight of all above ground gold is 190,000 metric tons.
The total value of all above ground gold in 31 trillion dollars.
The 2025 US GDP is also around 31 trillion dollars.
The National debt is 38 trillion dollars and growing.
The market cap of the Mag 7 is 22 trillion dollars.
The Mag 7 is valued at 2/3 all world wide gold.
I would rather own gold than Mag 7.
All of these assets are priced at the margins. If everyone tried to sell at one prices would drop dramatically as there is not that much money floating around to buy it.
The same small fraction of shares and ounces are churned everyday, all though there has been an uptick lately in ounces.
As Chicken Little always said “The Sky is Falling” but the sky that does fall always evaporates.
Every commodity buzz fizzles when a new buzz takes it’s place.
The dollar is designed to be kept in scarcity. Numbers will grow but scarcity will continue proportionally, you can rest assured.
When investors get squeezed and need dollars, assets will be sold.
The total amount of above ground gold would fit in a cube with 68 foot sides.
If the world is on the gold standard and your country doesn’t have much gold then, historically speaking, a good strategy would be for you to take over a country with lots of gold but relatively unprotected. It worked very well in the ancient world. For example the Roman Empire had a big trade deficit with India and China (silk, jewels and all that). When the Spanish mines ran out of gold and silver ran out they took over Dacia. When that ran out specie became scarce because it was being sucked out of the Empire to India to exchange for luxury goods eventually resulting in the coinage to contain less and less of silver and gold.
The same pattern played out later. Spain had a balance of payments problem so when they heard Mexico and Peru had gold and silver they took them over. In the 1500s when Morocco needed gold they sent an expedition headed by converted blue-eyed Spanish eunuch to Mali and containing European firearm specialists, conquered it, packed up the gold and sent it to Marrakesh.
Now if the Gold Standard comes back as Mish wishes, I wonder which country has a lot of gold that is badly protected? Any ideas?
Gold is so much a small portion of the world’s wealth that it is amazing that people think it is such an important unit of measurement. The only thing valuable about it other than scarcity, appearance and, and some industrial applications, is that it has a specific weight to volume ratio that allows it to be used as a tally stick for a record of collateralized hypothications.
Are you referring to gold in the mines, or stored gold?
switzerlan!Trump needs to send aircraft carriers near the coast of Switzerland!
That is a land-locked nation!
was joking.lots of people dont know where is really Switzerland .
Mish agreed tax cut hole in deficit. But as to personal finances, a good portion may go to pay down debts accrued before they get too out of hand.
That copper thing is total BS based on a miscalculation in a report. Amazing that people are still trying to run with it https://investinglive.com/news/the-500000-ton-typo-why-data-center-copper-math-doesnt-add-up-20260113/
Not that I think that the Fed has done a great job but the extremely chaotic executive branch “policies” makes the Fed’s job even more difficult.
correct
When was the last period of time the Fed was good at its job? Pre-bernanke by how many decades?
many decades
Gold and stocks have been going up in tandem, first time this has ever happened.
Simple explaination is that both are bubbles which will inevitably pop.
US dollar is oversold and will rise again. A lot of people in AI and gold will get their bumbs smacked.
Many commentators are keen to emphasise de-dollarisation as it plays into their hatred for Trump. They are taking it personally and losing objectivity.
The key indicator for a bubble is that it starts to develop narratives along the lines of this time is different. For gold, it’s de-dollarisation and central bank buying (the latter now going down). For AI, it’s this technology is the most revolutionary of all time (reports now showing not really). Tech like Robin Hood has been more impactful by enabling mass retail speculation than AI.
Tesla is now an AI company so it’s SP has risen.
Soon Coca Cola will start calling itself an AI company.
BIS has written a very good paper on this.
The Fed has a lot of responsibility for creating this endgame scenario by keeping rates too low for too long, they should have tapered rates and QE by 2016.
Be that as it may, USD is still the only viable reserve currency and this won’t change until it is no longer the world’s no 1 superpower.
Sometimes it is different.
You should listen to the large man abroad….the money train has left the station and it moved to Europe and Asia. Were you on it?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRLYeuNlB94
I live in Europe. In many ways nicer to live here than USA but economically it is going nowhere. It has aging population bad demographics and high taxes all of which restrict economic growth.
USA has world’s financial capital in NYC, tech capital in Silicon valley, and defence capital in Washington.
As for Asia, there is dynamism but it’s too corrupt, China throws billionaires in jail if they don’t tow the party line. But they can copy American innovations and iterate on them so yes the future longer term may be Asia.
Trump has an antic disposition but there is method in the madness and besides the USA has constitutional blocks which will reign him in. Last time I checked he hadn’t invaded Iraq like George W with only the UK on his side and nobody was speaking about de dollarisation then.
Also a good article on the FT today titled dont bet on de dollarisation.
I’m calling a top today on PMs and also us tech!
Have not seen the FT article on de-dollarization but likely agree
My take – very slow over time – and mostly exaggerated now.
China not dumping US treasuries – they are disguised in European holdings
An interesting commentary here on AI bubble
https://www.gmo.com/europe/research-library/valuing-ai-extreme-bubble-new-golden-era-or-both_viewpoints/
If it blows up I expect a dash to cash although one of the author’s has recently argued that gold may be in a paradigm shift (but I think the recent blow up in prices suggests it’s more likely in short to medium term bubble territory).
The grand irony is that Trump is pursuing mercantilism while the rest of the world moves on to do trade deals. Your comments thinks about the past not the future and that’s where you need to focus.
It’s easy to see how China can win the AI war as they build gigawatts of energy (from all sources) while Trump wants to run America on coal.
Good call.
I have lived on and off in Europe for a few decades and am there now and I remember Europe in the 80s, 90s and the beginning of the 2000s was going gangbusters. Growth was strong and there was optimism and then it just all went away. What happened? Maybe the Euro or the present form of the EU or probably a combination of both. Europe lost its mojo. Now it way behind in AI, Robotics and Space which is the future any way you look at it and I don’t see how they can catch up.
The US is a mass market, so you can scale companies quickly. You can’t really do this in Europe. Plus there is much more risk-aversion.
I think Europe in the 80s and 90s was still benefiting from the economic miracle of the 60s, which itself was based on the reconstruction of the continent after WW2. Plus all the baby boomers in the workforce.
America is just better at doing capitalism; it is a more capitalist country, whereas Europe has always had strong socialist and redistributionist tendancies.
This is where I resonate with Trump (I disagree with the way he goes about things), but if the US ends up like Europe, then you will soon be dealing with the permanent stagnation that afflicts the whole continent. I was on holiday in Italy recently and the lifeguards at the pool were in their mid 40s – there simply aren’t many decent job opportunities. Compare that to some friends in the US who are earning twice as much and able if they wish to retire to Europe and live very comfortably.
Italy has 40 yr. old lifeguards because there aren’t any 20 yr olds.
Demographics very bad that’s for sure. People aren’t having kids as they can’t afford them due to lack of stable middle income jobs that started disappearing in the 90s.
I recall that Europe was affected by the GFC. You may have to look at each country separately…..
I know Ireland had a bad property crash around 2007-8. Young people started leaving Ireland again, IT growth stalled, and they began leaning heavily on tourism.
people that call tops or bottoms in economic markets are for sure fooling themselves. or trying to delude others, or perhaps both…….it’s gambling. more buyers or sellers…. the world is a big place and humans have been migrating and changing systems forever. the only constant is change. including immigration patterns and alliances and empires….
I called the top yesterday in gold and silver. Just look for a hockey stick on graphs.
“The Fed has a lot of responsibility for creating this Endgame Scenario”
10 Years Of Almost ‘Zero’ Percent Interest Rates To Save Too Big To Fail/Jail Corporations + Banksters.!
Small Business + MomNPops Left To Die.!
Lock Her Up (2016) – NO ONE At The Top Gone To Jail/Prison Yet!
The Only Growth In The Economy Right Now Is The Building
Of The ‘Digital’ Prison – Billionaires Dragging Everyone Into:
‘AI Skynet’ – Total Surveillance – Digital ID.!
It started with Greenspan who favored the housing bubble.
There wasn’t equivalent housing bubble in Europe but the fall out from the GFC led to austerity and credit crunch on the continent but it was in a weak place to start with.
USA far stronger so was able to recover. Alas not so Europe although Spain doing OK these days.
LOOKS LIKE dollar confidence is falling faster than gold is rising and the miners going down. I don’t think I have ever seen this with USD. not sure this is correct assessment. please comment girls and boys. nazis included.
off topic from ZH
====
President Donald Trump announced on Jan. 27 that farm equipment maker John Deere will invest $70 million to build an excavator factory in North Carolina.
=======
there was famous Russian-Ukraine author from 19th century named N. Gogol
one of my favorite . same category as London, O Henry, etc
====
so he wrote story called =notes of madman=
each time i read Trump it only comes into mind!
to put into perspective
US fed.gov spends about $ 20 bil per each effing day, and 1/3 of that amount is borrowed!
and this madman is proud of measly 70 mil!!
jesus!!!!!!
HAHA
He’s innumerate. Million, billion what’s the difference?
Considering that US companies stopped making them in the US itself and made them overseas, the fact that John Deere decided to build them again in the US is something important because it is the only one building them in the US. Volvo also decided to build a plant in the US too. Something about tariffs I think.
looks like the miners are dropping now, due to the currency swaps, for USD holders of the stocks, while metals are roaring ahead. not sure, but smells this way today
What happens to all these indices when Trump attacks Iran and they respond harder than last time – including against American bases in the region?
It’s almost FAFO o’clock
THE MODERN AMERIKAN MEN FOR THE PAST 3 GENERATIONS HAVE BEEN RAISED AND BRED AND BRAIN WASHED TO BE SNIVELING BOOTLICKING EMPLOYEE AND GOVERNMENT, NIT WITS AFRAID OF THEIR OWN SHADOWS. borders were wide open for centuries………….
If you can’t stop eating crayons, we’re going to take them away.
pithy sweetie. do you need a hug.
There is a third option. People take their tax refunds and invest them in the stock market. This will to trumps looking as he only sees the Market .
Not possible.
Seriously it is impossible.
For every buyer there is a seller.
Same with Gold and Silver
Unless it’s gold or silver in paper only.
Unless it’s an uncovered option.
All of this points to the undervalued Mining companies that see their margins explode when copper, silver and gold go parabolic.
Copper and Gold are often found together along with other co-products, this drives costs down as there are multiple revenue streams.
All In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of gold is around $1,500 per ounce and silver is $10 – $15.
Do the math!
Their margins blow away companies like TSLA, NVDA etc.
which miners do you like today, Frosty ? thanks in advance
All of this points to massive inflation, the Fed forced to raise rates, bonds crashing, equities crashing and massive profits for those positioned or hedged appropriately.
National debt is rising faster than GDP. This will come home to roost. Too much effort is spent on Usary. Lenders will eventually get their clocks cleaned and lending and borrowing will adjust. We are not used to this natural cycle because massive measures have been taken to delay it. Maybe there is a rabbit or two left in the hat, but they won’t be cute, they never are.
There are ‘smart’ people that are now living on the beach abroad that gained 1600% on GameStop in 2021 in three weeks.
These gold and silver profit margins are peanuts in comparison! LOL
They usually set their selling prices in advance.
Per Supreme Court (SCOTUS) precedent based on the Tenth Amendment’s anti-commandeering doctrine, local police are not required to help federal agents with federal law enforcement, such as immigration enforcement. States are sovereign, and the federal government cannot force state or local officials to enforce federal laws or, typically, use local resources. THE SCOTUS AND CONSTITUTION WAS SHREDDED MANY DECADES AGO. BUT A CALLER ON CSPAN POINTED OUT THIS OBVIOUS. BULLY BULLY
The reasoning is they don’t have immunity like the FEDS have. US navy has immunity if they bombed Minneapolis or Dallas. No doubt the commander in chiefs will be making those orders in the next few years.
They also don’t have the money. If they started doing this the Fedd would just bury them.
This is government theft from the local communities. It’s also stealing resources away from what the local law enforcement is responsible for.
This alone is sufficient for everyone to be a Sanctuary City.
Look at the marijuana industry. There is a multi-billion dollar industry that exists in this country and it’s completely illegal. The feds don’t have the capacity to do anything about it. You can open up a dispensary faster than you can shut it down.
And the states will absolutely not enforce the federal laws because they have already made it legal in their neighborhood.
At which point, I’m beginning to wonder if the term Sanctuary City is really just smoke like the cat & dog dinner special in Ohio
all government paper and computer currencies go to zero. it’s not and if. just a when.
I thought the 10th Amendment was the 1st part of the Constitution that the Supreme Ct. ruled unconstitutional. 😉
HA HA. the Constitution. it’s been a nonbinding resolution my first 65 years. it’s malarkey
One of the nice things about driving an electric vehicle is there’s no catalytic converter to steal. On the other hand, the home charging station has a nice long copper filled cable.
IN PHOENIX in the depression 2007 to 2012, they would climb on roofs and take the copper out of people’s AC……….a few nights i chased some off my properties………
You can replace them with aluminum if copper prices itself out of the market.
The repricing (=downgrading) of the dollar across currencies since Trump took office is striking. Even Brazil and South Africa had their currencies rise 15 percent against the dollar. It looks like the world has decided to move on without the chaotic and unpredictable US.
Mexican Peso 2nd place. Can’t get more humiliating for the US. But fully deserved. Good riddance to the USD.
Got out of my last USD holdings last week, bought as a hedge a year ago thinking they can’t get crazier than the war-mongering lunatics in Brussels and with German economy intentionally going down the drain, good luck with France and Italy financing the EUDSSR + their Ukraine commitment. Wrong. Never assume anything (ass u me)
I still have a bunch of dollars locked in a 401k, but, in a few years, they’ll be the first in line to be drawn from for retirement. Real assets are at the end of the line.
I have seen the Dollar as weak as 1.60 vs the Euro and I have seen it almost at parity all in the last 15 years so I don’t get worried much over its moves.
Agree. Still no real replacement for the USD in sight. Happy to bail out all the same, avoiding the 1.20-1.60 range i.e. another 30% debasement vs the Euro. However, fundamentals in Europe being what they are the Euro only has one direction to go vs GLD / SLV / hard assets. Question of time only
If you devaluate the dollar ,you devaluate the debt
You are not mistaken. I’ve been commenting on various things “breaking” like the expected rumored defaults on metals delivery on contracts sometime in the upcoming months.
The fluctuations in the bond markets of Japan and US are like tremors before the big quake.
Now that the Fed didn’t cut rates, the 1.5 trillion in CRE loans that have been playing the “extend and pretend” game are going to go to default land. Even worse with big layoffs that will reduce the need for office space and AI ain’t helping either.
But the biggest sign something is wrong is when the Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair go on TV and have to reassure everyone that everything is fine.
Huge deliveries of Gold and Silver are occurring right now in what is normally a non-delivery month at the COMEX. 4.7 million ounces of silver left the COMEX yesterday.
China put export restrictions on silver as of January first and the flow of metals out of the US is what shifted the balance of trade last month.
Who does Trump work for?
Why does he have a picture of him and Putin on the wall of the White House?
At some point they will run out of metals. Rumors say April but who knows…..
thanks for this info girls and boys
GREAT ANALYSIS THERE MISH. THANKS FOR THOSE POINTS. HAT TIP FOR THE EDUCATION
The labor and bond markets are THE primary votes against the Feral Reverse since they are are the only two policy objectives. 6 interest rate cuts failed prevent layoffs. If anything, layoffs are increasing. The bond market refuses to be dragged lower after 18 months of rate cutting. The idea a single lever can control more than one independent output has always been mathematically false, and yet those in charge think they are smarter than the laws of math that flew airplanes, landed men on the moon, and balanced Segways.
the dual mandate is BS. just marketing to please the nitwits in pax dumbfuckistan. pro tip, the NYFED is privately owned by guess who?
MAGA Billy, THERE ARE NOW TRUMP UNIVERSITY online courses on deepthroating uncle sam
looks correct. gold is money. the rest is currency.
A weaker dollar is GOOD for Corporations and bad for consumers. SOUNDS LIKE BUSINESS AS USUAL, right?
yea sure. all those companies do great in argentina when they print like drunk sailors ever 20 years and go belly up.
Trump is running the economy “hot” say the butt boys on Fox. I say, we are no longer capitalists when the President runs the economy.
well. it’s not like this is anything new. perhaps for people living in boxes or something. we are fascists imperialists. just a little nit pick. capital is an economic term. not political. if you are talking less government involvement in economy, yea. the ancient egyptians and romans and communist chinese use capital. sorry to nit pick. but it’s important. the modern amerikans are so mixed up the past 3 generations on basics of money and empire and capital
See the definition of “Fascist”.
better yet. read what mussolini wrote eloquently about what his policy was. socialism turned on it’s head. profits up to the industrialists……..and so much more. it’s corporatism. make money on warfare. pro tip. amerika has been a fascist world wide imperial democracy for many years. uniparty, too. i mean FFS kids, Trump was a lifelong D and is running econ policies that liz warren would agree on………….uniparty is fascists. bottom line. the blue v red hooey is silly.
The DXY isn’t much a measure of the condition of the dollar, comparing fiat is meaningless. However, comparing gold prices to the dollar is a good index of the value of the dollar. Gold sits at $5600 as I type. Interest rates must rise and fiscal austerity is needed.
Spot on! Also the debt continues to increase unless spending is less than revenue. As the deficit increases the budget cut must increase above it to make any improvement in the debt situation. Devaluing the dollar is a gimmick that does not change that fact. Devaluing the dollar also devalues the wealth of the private sector, the tax base we depend upon to finance the country which eventually cuts into the tax revenue stream.
“America’s business is business.” (Calvin Coolidge)
Or did you think the US were a democratic republic or something like that?
POWELL will look like a champ, in a year and ten years. we are going Weimar and Argentina and Italian Lira……………folks. as an aside, Seems Pretti was a successful test case for the Palantir database of left wing radicals. 100% a targeted assassination. palantir, and CIA and Mossad, for sure knows where all your guns are maga billy.
Yeah, that video of him kicking in the fed’s taillight and scuffling with agents after spitting on the vehicle. A friend used to say-“Marines want to die”. Maybe Alex had the same wish?
Sure, but you’re not supposed to give a crazy guy whatever he wants. Those agents have wisely lawyered up.