Democrats Take Over 250 House Seats in Huge Power Shift

The counting is still not over. I am eyeing 262 minimum.

Live Midterm Updates

Please consider Live Updates courtesy of the New York Times.

The party’s growing tally approached the result in 2008, when Barack Obama captured the White House. Democrats also held leads in the uncalled Senate races in Mississippi and Alaska.

The Democratic House majority surged past 250 seats on Thursday as the party seized its biggest majority in nearly two decades by flipping more seats, including in Montana, where a former smoke jumper disrupted decades of Republican dominance. The last time either party held so many seats was 2008, when Democrats swept to power behind Barack Obama.

The latest race calls by The Associated Press continued to strengthen Democrats’ hold on the House, though they also hoped to add to their margin in the Senate with seats in Alaska and Mississippi, where their nominees held narrow leads over the Republican incumbents.

In Montana, Sam Forstag, a union leader who used to parachute into remote areas to battle wildfires for the U.S. Forest Service, won a longtime Republican seat by running on a pro-labor platform that earned endorsements from progressives like Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

Democrats’ Senate Wins Defy Their Wildest Expectations

Cook Political reports Democrats’ Senate Wins Defy Their Wildest Expectations

Democrats may win every race in our Toss Up column — flipping Ohio, Kansas, Texas, Iowa and Maine — with Alaska still outstanding. In the upset of the night, they also flipped South Carolina, with Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews ousting appointed Sen. Darline Graham, who replaced her late brother Lindsey Graham. Andrews even flipped longtime GOP strongholds like Greenville County on her way to a four-point victory, giving Democrats their first Senate seat there in nearly 30 years.

Not Precisely Wild Expectations

Well, I never thought that was wild. +6 was my base case with +7 next. I also said +8 was more likely than +3.

And the only reason why I was not +7 as my base case is I did not see the last AtlasIntel set of polls that included Iowo.

So, “wild” is in the eyes of the beholder.

Democrats Flip at Least Five Governors’ Mansions

Democrats will have a majority of the nation’s governors for the first time since 2010, flipping several GOP strongholds for the first time in decades. So far, there are five flips on the board — Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Texas — and Alaska could add to that count, potentially bringing them to 30 governors nationwide. The country will now have a record-setting at least 17 women governors —- including three new Democratic women of color in New Mexico, Georgia and Texas.

Texas was the biggest surprise of the night, with Democrat Gina Hinojosa denying Republican Gov. Greg Abbott a fourth term despite being outspent by nearly five-to-one; she will be the state’s first Latina governor. In Georgia, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, despite being outspent nearly four-to-one, defeated Republican self-funding businessman Rick Jackson to become the country’s first Black female governor.

Republicans had hoped to at least pick up the open Democratic-held Kansas seat, but Democrat Cindy Holscher, propelled by Adam Hamilton’s Senate victory, is currently leading Republican Ty Masterson.

In Ohio, former state health director Amy Acton will be the state’s first Democratic governor since 2006, beating Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, who faced major blowback for airing a last-minute ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother.

Democrats had massive successes at the state legislative level as well, flipping at least 10 state chambers from red to blue — including in Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Wisconsin — and breaking 10 GOP supermajorities.

Mish House Expectation Update

I did a quick glance at the 28 undecided seats. I expect Democrats will win 12 of them.

Consider it 10-12. That would make the number of seats 262-264.

I only considered leads with no analysis of where the outstanding votes are. I merely presumed all leads would hold, regardless of party.

Following the 2008 elections, Democrats held 257 House seats in the 111th United States Congress.

I am confident Democrats will beat the 2008 total, perhaps easily.

In case you missed it, please see Trump’s Legacy and a Word of Thanks to MishTalk Readers

My reflections on one of the biggest political wipeouts in history, plus a word of thanks.