My reflections on one of the biggest political wipeouts in history, plus a word of thanks.
Unusual and Appreciated Introspection
Sincere Thanks to Tom.
The Very Unexpected
“I have to hand it to you Mish. Your predictions were spot on! Not to my liking mind you but very accurate. You should run a prediction/polling market. Oh, note to self, bet on Mish’s predictions in the future!”
That is not an easy thing to say.
On my end …
Personally, I thank @NateSilver538, @Kalshi, @Polymarket
Nate and I disagreed on a minor things. I edged him out on my House calls and the likelihood of SC flipping. He was right on Alaska odds.
My best call, was very early call before anyone: Republicans would lose every close race. I led everyone on that.
I am not cheering socialists. I am cheering the demise of Trump. There’s a difference.
That last sentence is very important. Trump surrounded himself with sycophants.
His only requirement for any position at any time was 100 percent loyalty. That gave the country Hegseth and a war.
Sycophant J.D. Vance twisting his way to explaining a war he says he did not want.
Sycophant Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent had to defend Trump’s idiotic comment that foreign nations pay tariffs many times.
Trump aligned with racist Stephen Miller, Deputy Chief of Staff setting immigration policy that likely cost Texas Governor Greg Abbott his job. I have not heard anyone else make that call yet.
I have an article already written with that idea. I will post it later.
Paxton was enough to sink the Senate, but it took something extra to revolt deeply Red Texas enough to put a governor in the state mansion. Deportations caused a Hispanic revolt and deservingly so.
Sycophant Pulte illegally investigate Fed Governor Lisa Cook on behalf of Trump. A criminal investigation is warranted.
Sycophant Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, firmly stood behind one of the most idiotic economic projections in history, that tariffs could replace income tax as a source of revenue.
The number of people on Twitter who praised Trump over over tariffs replacing the income tax was stunning. I was shocked at the stupidity and I don’t shock easily.
One person I highly respected wondered what happened to me.
“To me?,” I thought.
Since he muted me, I doubt he see this.
Scores (no make that hundreds) of people who would have laughed at Biden for years had he said anything close to what Trump said on the economy, suddenly became cheerleaders for some of the most economically illiterate ideas in history.
Q: Why
A: That is what the cult demanded.
Up and down the line, if you disagreed with Trump on anything you were primaried out of government.
Rep Thomas Massie went down. MAGA cheered.
Senator John Cornyn went down. MAGA cheered.
Senator Thom Tillis stood down. MAGA cheered.
Senator Joni Ernst stood down. MAGA cheered.
Senator Sue Collins went down. MAGA wanted that.
MAGA is now after Senator Tom Thune.
Across the board MAGA got what it wanted.
Here’s a flashback for you.
May 27, 2026 MishTalk: Trump Got What He Wanted in Texas Senate Primary, But So Did Democrats
Trump is gloating now over Ken Paxton. But he’s gloating over a loss.
I was mocked over that post for days.
But guess what’s happening now.
I got a few emails from people like Tom. Here’s another that I am very proud of.
That is the best thing anyone on X ever said about me.
Q: O.K. But what’s happening?
A: MAGA is not blaming Trump.
MAGA is blaming John Thune for not passing the SAVE Act.
MAGA is blaming RINO Carl Rove
MAGA is blaming RINO Senator John Cornyn
MAGA is Blaming RINO Senator Thom Tillis
Trump personally blames RINO governor Greg Abbott
Trump personally went after RINO senator Lisa Murkowski
MAGA still want to get rig of Thune
Why Trump Won in 2016 and 2024
Trump won in 2016 because people hated Hillary more than him. But it still took a last minute bombshell from Comey to pull it off.
Trump won in 2024 because people hated Biden’s inflation and they believed Trump’s lies.
Trump is no genius marketer. He barely won percentage-wise against the two worst Democrat candidates in history.
Reflections on Being a RINO
There is zero introspection by MAGA. But there can’t be. As soon as anyone disagrees with Trump on anything, they are labeled a RINO and drummed out of the cult.
Core MAGA now supports wars. It supports socialist $5,000 vote buying, highly inflationary dividends. It cheered adding hundreds of complex pages to the tax code to buy votes from part-time workers.
MAGA cheered extreme Tariffs. MAGA cheered the idea of taking Greenland by force.
In the unbelievable category, MAGA cheered making Venezuela a US state, while protesting Democrats would make Puerto Rico a state.
Anyone who does not embrace such idiocy is labeled a RINO.
For calling out the blatant stupidity of everything above, I was jeered as a socialist or communist.
But I could see and feel the change.
Energy dissipated on X. MAGA crowds got smaller and smaller as Trump devoted his time to men’s bodies, his vanity projects, and defending the war.
His rants were no longer funny. Crowds barely laughed. And the harder Trump tried to get laughs, the fewer he got.
That’s when any sensible person knew it was over. I could feel it. Trump could no longer bring in the crowds. Poor jokes and personal attacks stopped working.
My Model
With every rally and ridiculous tirade, more and more non-MAGA republicans had enough.
That’s what the polls showed.
MAGA didn’t believe the polls. I did. More accurately, I believed the polls before they even happened.
My model starting January was simple. Republicans would lose every close race and then some. I trounced Cook Political and Sabato’s Crystal ball on that simple premise.
The Problem
The problem is MAGA and MAGA is Trump.
MAGA is now a smaller piece of what’s become of the Republican party. Core MAGA was something like 50 percent of the party, perhaps more. It’s now 25 or 30 percent of the party.
MAGA eroded at the fringes. Unfortunately, it is still calling the shots.
Let’s see how fast that changes, or if it changes.
But if it doesn’t, and soon, the big problem is going to be a Democrat trifecta in 2028.
Trump’s Legacy
Trump’s Legacy: A stupid, arrogant man, started a stupid war. The result was one of the biggest political wipeouts in History.
I made that comment earlier today. This post expands on the idea.
A Word of Thanks
I thank those of my followers who stuck with me.
My goal was (and still is) to influence public opinion. I doubt I succeeded. But I did the best that I could.
Many readers didn’t stick with me. I lost a lot of readership over the past year by going after Trump.
They told me to “stick to the economy” because my political calls “were going to be wrong”.
How is the war not related to the economy? How is birthright citizenship not related to the economy? Inane tariffs? Making Canada the 51st state? Abandoning allies?
The first irony is that I never stopped writing about the economy. All of those things are far more important that the latest nonsense from the BLS.
The second irony is that I did not make these “clickbait” posts for readership, as I was accused. I made these posts because it was the right thing to do.
I vowed not to let Trump get away with what he did. To the extent my posts damaged my readership, so be it.
A bit of thanks to AI as well. It created the lead image in seconds. AI did not know that I am a Libra and I love those scales of justice.
To Hell with Political Parties
I am a Libertarian, free market, fiscal conservative, anti-war, MMOB person, no matter which political party is in power. I support ideas, not parties or persons.
That is what you are always going to get on MishTalk.
Related Posts
November 3, 2026: The Big Referendum on Trump’s Presidency Is Now Underway
November 3, 2026: Congratulations to Trump for Turning Texas Blue. No Mere Mortal Could.
I Congratulate President Trump for Major Victories Tonight
November 4, 2026: Top 10 Reasons Republicans Lost the Midterms through Trump’s Eyes
I compiled this list as a spoof over the course of the last month. How’d I do?
Immigration down, crime way down.
Great job once again Mish! You give it to us with no BS,! You did not “go after Trump” IMHO. You lay out the facts, and you expertly back up your analysis and then at times sprinkle in your opinion (which I really look forward to). Not your fault Trump is a loser on so many levels! Congrats to you on “nailing it”! Keep up the stellar job please!
Mishtalk is my first read each morning because I usually like what he has to say and the comments he generates. I like to read the for and against arguments to question my views. Keep doing your usual Mish and stir up the MAGA crowd along with all those whose brains are locked – I love the backlash.
Oh yeah – congrats on your election call.
Vetted immigration is the process of verifying that those admitted can (1) be net contributors economically and (2) assimilate to the rules and customs that define the country. There is nothing racist about vetted immigration.
There is still a range, assessing who “can assimilate.” The information asymmetry immigrants are under (their distance from assimilation when they arrive) incentivizes them (1) to work cheaper and harder, to the benefit of our society, and (2) to work to assimilate, erasing that asymmetry, to take full participation in societal benefits: to move up a ladder.
Being too stingy up front in requirements of who “can assimilate” erases those behavioral and economic benefits to us. Yes, there is risk there, with some losses inevitable, as there is in any fruitful enterprise.
Mish, I commented on a previous post of yours, but, it was late in the thread and didn’t get much action.
So, I’ll rephrase and posit the premise again, in hopes of getting some thoughts back!
While listening and reading peoples opinions, all over the internet and TV, I found that right wingers had a lot of things to blame (the war, inflation, affordability, tarriffs, “The Media”, etc). But, for the most part, the right wingers and right wing media that I saw held back from blaming Trump himself and Trumpism (the cult).
I can’t help but imagine that republican politicians still in office, though, do blame him completely. Yet, so far, I don’t really see or hear anyone putting any distance between themselves and Trump.
What do you think? Don’t you think that some of the more rational and not slavishly cultish members, who are still in office would want to explicitly blame him and begin to walk away from him, in public? Hope to hear the thoughts of other commenters as well.
Those clingers have a big psychological investment in Trump as a savior (and a corresponding complex of fear and loathing for the straw persons they fear and loathe). Once installed, it doesn’t vanish in a day.
I have been reluctant to directly criticize leaders I liked, but later came to see more as having at least substantial incompetence. It is, as Trump is spectacularly loathe to do, admitting i was wrong,or at least gullible.
Been reading you a long time way back with your first site. One thing is for sure, you’ve been consistent in your analysis and reasoning the entire time over multiple politicians. You also admit when you get it wrong and why.
Thank you! I have totally enjoyed your analysis.
Trump represented something beyond the actual orange moron.
To many, he represented hope for a break with the
Hope to escape from a system with a playing field tilted against them.
Political parties are private corporations who have monopolized representative government, collecting cash/favors from oligarchs and delivering on their preferences.
The despair and desperate hope for a change has not disappeared with Trump’s demise.
Im not a fan of the far left or the far right. I hope the dem blue wave is so big they do not have to make deals with the far left to get things done.
Start with campaign finance reform.
Maybe to contribute to a politician you have have to be a registered voter for the election at hand. And have an amount limit.
2nd no stock trades and other shady business. Make the punishment stout. 20 years in prison for any violation. That should shake out a good chunk of those who are there for the wrong reason.
3balance the budget. Each department gets a basic funding. You want to go to war. Well the bill gets added to individual tax return with itemized .
Ex at your tax bracket the share you owe for iran war is (). Its easy to spend other peoples money when they dont see the bill.
Re adjust the tax bracket to pre 1984.
What majority of democrats were campaigning on those issues in their campaigns? Texas incoming governor voted against the law making it illegal to establish sanctuary cities or making illegal immigration a state crime so they could get a handle on it. Those are past actions and indicative of future actions. She believes border enforcement is theatrics. Doubtful she will be stopping the next 15,000 person caravan. Texas’s New Democrat Governor Vowed To Stop Helping ICE. However that is what they voted for.
Great job of analysis and prediction!!
I would go even further on this statement: “Trump aligned with racist Stephen Miller, Deputy Chief of Staff setting immigration policy that likely cost Texas Governor Greg Abbott his job. I have not heard anyone else make that call yet.”
Hispanics everywhere especially the younger voted as swing voters having a hand in the wipeout.
Now the hard part is cleaning up the mess and let’s hope Congress is up to the task.
The voting isn’t over yet, there are petitions on change.org to dump Jeffries and Schumer from any key role in the new congress.
https://www.change.org/p/house-democrats-choose-a-new-speaker
I hope they both get dumped.
Chuck could try to make the cheeseburgers at The Billy Goat Tavern.
Lot of euphoric idealism but not being very realistic since seniority is a real thing and most are probably compromised in various fashions.
I very much enjoy your economic reports.Keep up the good work on all fronts..
Mish, great summation. You staked a lot on this, followed your conscience and intellect, and you were right. Watch all the mockers slink into the shadows, with no apologies. This rightness, and this contribution to the recent debates, is its own reward.
The gleam may be off Trump. but of all the factors you cited, I think energy prices trickling into everyday prices were overwhelmingly the broad determinant. That is not a shift in political beliefs or in intelligence.
I do not underestimate the tendency of the public to veer back into its default stupidity and fad pursuits.
As for the Texas flip, an alternative explanation based on trade and demographics is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CczsmrzZPRk
Well done, Mish. You’ve been principled throughout. For me, I could never support a man that used lawfare to try overturn the election of 2020 (by seeking to invalidate all votes from Pennsylvania – among other monstrosities?!?!). After that, I saw my Republican friends abandon their principles when Trump introduced tariffs (both an excess of Presidential authority, and on economic principles), quasi-colonizing Venezuela after killing hundreds of untried men in international waters, starving an already-hungry Cuba, then on to picking pointless fights with international allies, subsidizing industries hurt by the tariffs he created, and on an on… And a Republican Congress refusing to do uphold its constitutional duties for fear of being individually primaried. Republicans deserve this debacle. I hope we can learn from it. And I hope Dems don’t overinterpret their mandate and take equally egregious reactions.
I completely agree.
Biden lost because of wide open borders.
When they take over, the Democrats should revive the bipartisan Border Act of 2024. I think they could get Republicans to vote for it now, and it would go a long way toward retaining the Republican voters and Independents who flipped blue this time. I even think that Trump would sign it and take credit for the whole thing.
If the Democrats go back to wide open borders, they will lose again.
I think Biden (Harris) lost primarily because of the economy. The borders were important but secondary.
Depends on who you talk to. If you ask centrist Republicans, the border was the biggest issue. Same with many Independents. If you ask firm Democrats then other issues come up, such as the economy.
My point is, if the Democrats want to build on their control and maintain it, they must get onboard with at least some kind of tighter border control than we had under Biden (such as they did with the Border Act of 2024).
It would have passed, except that Trump got it killed so he could maintain it as a campaign issue. Trump is now effectively gone, so if Democrats want to reassure those who are concerned about the border and keep it from becoming a campaign issue in 2028, they have a golden opportunity to get a win and keep that issue on the back burner.
President Donald Trump opposed the bipartisan 2024 Senate border security package primarily for the following reasons:
• Political Strategy and Reelection Focus: Trump wanted to keep the southern border crisis a prominent campaign issue for the 2024 presidential election rather than allowing a legislative compromise to pass under President Joe Biden, which he argued would be a “gift to Democrats” and help Biden politically.
• Preference for Stronger Measures (H.R. 2): Trump and conservative hardliners demanded stricter enforcement concessions and backed the tougher, House-passed legislation known as H.R. 2 rather than the Senate’s bipartisan compromise.
• Separation from Foreign Aid: Trump urged Republicans to reject combining border security measures with foreign aid packages (such as funding for Ukraine and Israel), pushing instead for separate or more hardline enforcement action.
• Insufficient Enforcement Thresholds: Critics aligned with Trump argued that the Senate bill’s emergency authority—which would have allowed border restrictions only when daily crossings exceeded a 4,000-to-5,000 threshold—was too weak and effectively normalized unacceptable levels of illegal crossings rather than shutting them down completely.
Supposedly, corruption finally and deservedly became a real issue.
As the Brits say, “maths”.
Hey Mish, keep up the good commentary. It’s always coming from a practical, reasonable standpoint. You call out the stupidity on both sides. Let’s hope someone sensible gets elected President in 2028. These last 10 years have been the biggest stretch of incompetent leadership from both parties.
I too think you are honorable and decent. Your criticisms of Trump are always correct. I wish you would add “macho BS” because that was part of the attraction for younger men and probably some women. That so much of it involved white supremacism needed to be called out. Reagan had machismo, too, but with decency. This is a lesson for the Dems (along with a dozen other things like controlling spending).
Always a great impartial read. Thanks.
You have occasionally set out your views on things but I would love to hear your fuller manifesto as libertarianism always seems only half thought through. Would honestly appreciate being educated.
Mish,
Congratulations to you are in order. I’m not accusing you of being in favor of whatever disasters come next, so please bear that in mind.
I was for Massie against Trump. As for the others, I don’t know enough about them to have an opinion. I was sorry for Marjorie Taylor Green.
I don’t think you should write off the MAGA people yet. They have had a loss, but like the Labour (Labor) parties in Britain and Australia, they will probably keep coming back. They may not know much, but they do know that everybody in the establishment lies to them, more or less all the time. For the first time since (I gather) Irish immigrants in New York rioted because they were being conscripted into the Civil War, ordinary white people are attempting to stand up for themselves. I imagine that after the bad feeling about illegal immigration dies down, a lot of Latins will want to join them.
Civilization may not last long enough for another win by the people who created it all, or at least had it created on their backs (the white working class), but if it does, I kind of hope the retribution will be terrible.
Trump certainly does have a nasty vindictive streak about him, but in my experience, a lot of leaders do have that. As for all the people you say are sycophants, I suppose the followers on the other side do look like that to you. To me, there is nothing more sycophantic or corrupt than a member of the judiciary. They obtain their positions largely by a long career of sucking up, and once they attain their positions, they get their own back by insulting and degrading the public. All their pretenses founder on the fact that the law they administer is arbitrary, capricious, and has no regard for the concept of individual liberty. They, and all the other people who exposed their true natures during the Chinese flu epidemic, are enemies of society.
Trump still has two years as President. He should be able to prevent some of the worst excesses of the race-mixers and sexual perverts during that time. Hopefully, by the time he leaves office, the sick people will have moved on to some other obsession, less damaging than those they have been pursuing. And in the meantime, President Trump has prevented Persia from developing and putting into place advanced missile systems that could threaten not only Israel but also Europe. I’d say that is something he deserves thanks for, not that he will get it. The real builders never do.
Anyway linked below is dear old Arthur calling the children on Epstien’s island “little hookers”. Just so everyone remembers that the person speaking is a self professed pedophile who doesn’t think real child rape victims have had enough. Jojo said the same too, actually. Wonder where he went?
https://mishtalk.com/economics/does-president-trump-have-any-idea-what-passports-are-for/#comment-449328
Been reading your stuff since 2006 and the people who say you’ve changed or have TDS just haven’t been around long enough to judge your track record of objective observation. I personally have found your analyses refreshing over the years when it seems people are losing their minds to whatever the current noise is. Please keep this oasis of objectivity and original thought just same. And thanks again, i appreciate your efforts
“When a fool wins power, the first thing he does is silence the wise, the next thing he does is gather other fools around him, and the final thing he does is destroy the nation”
Whether red or blue, this is politics. Midterms usually swing to the minority party. Happens all the time. After the 2024 elections, everybody was claiming the demise of the Democratic Party was at hand. GOP is wounded, but not dead. Most likely MAGA supporters and Trump’s cronies are on life-support, never to awaken. Trump made some awfully dumb moves, but I think his foray into Iran at Bibi’s request sealed his coffin. Hopefully we can extricate ourselves, not only from Iran, but from all foreign incursions.
George Washington in his presidential farewell speech warned that the US should avoid foreign entanglements. He was very astute over 200 years ago.
He also warned about splitting into 2 political parties. Shame we ignored him.
I joined plenty ago, and even donated when I had the funds back in the FOFOA days. That was a fun rabbit hole and learned a lot.
…and established by self-IRA, holding precious metals without a regret at all.
Thank you, Mish. You’re still on my default news page every day.
(and you took some great pics of my old stomping ground in the Porcupine Mtns, IIRC)
Thanks Yes, I love the Porcupine Mountains
Amen to that Mish, that’s what I’ve been reading this blog for since 2009. Keep up the good work!
I don’t always agree but do always appreciate that sound reasoning is provided when you make a point!
I’ve never been a MAGA, but I cheered when Cornyn went down. Only I didn’t cheer that as much as when Paxton went down. Not a fan of either Talarico or Hinojosa, but they replaced two establishment apparatchiks. Next, Cruz.
“I am not cheering socialists.” The kneejerk wisdom is with this election the Dems moved to the left. I don’t think so. The number of centrist Dems who won in red states outnumber the hard lefties that got elected. Blue Dog coalition doubled in size overnight. Problem Solvers also saw big gains. Hamilton, Talarico and Turek are all centrists.
I had made the point that MAGA is like a wildfire, burning everything around it and there is no sense in talking to a wild fire, it simply has to burn itself out after it consumes itself….and here we are today, the largest blue wave in half a century.
And 3-star Mishelin awards is what you will get as long as you keep it real.
By the way, the market has lost $500+ billion today, another Trump/GOP induced market crash but the worse it yet to come.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_k2og1ZmZhw
Mish you do a great job. I have been following you for a long time. You deserve kudos for remaining in sound mind.
I would welcome some posts about gold, land, critical resources, AI, drones, self driving vehicles, recovery of oil, geo-economic shifts (the Euro … hint hint) – any chance of some of those in the near future?
One of the immediate problems we need fixing is deportations.
Health Care too.
I do have those coming up. Already written in fact.
Well done, Mish. This is why I’ve been following your blog for nearly 20 years. High conscientiousness, good humor, and lately, artistic sophistication.
Thanks Mish. It took courage to stand up to MAGA bullies.
Thanks, Mish…overall some great reading here and I really like our mutual friends here. This is a great forum. Even when we disagree, people are generally polite.
Well put. I enjoy the information and am looking forward to more.
I am moved to Canada not US. Maybe this will approve my comments awaiting approval
Nicely written. I’m a libertarian myself who tends to vote Republican because I lived through the Newsome nightmare in California. That being said, I’m sick to the gills of Trump and an looking forward to putting him in the rear view mirror. The market is really getting crushed today and the chatter is about the moratoriums the Democrats are talking about imposing in multiple States. Apparently, a whole bunch of junk bonds are behind a bunch of the planned builds. I’m hoping you can do an analysis of the AI selloff with that in mind now that the election is over.
Consistently excellent analysis…
which explains why I have checked your blog daily…
for decades.
Thank you Mish.
You were right Mike. I was a Trump fan in 2016 but gradually turned sour.. Stupid tariffs and antagonizing Canada (I am an immigrant from the UK) finished me off.
Only a minor quibble. I’m not sure the vote percentages mean MAGA is all that reduced. People were reacting mostly to inflation & oil prices, which go up and down. It’s a poor basis for making a decision, even if the outcome is warranted by a stupid war that made gas prices go up. The xenophobia and (un)Christian right are still there.
Reduced some? Sure. Still quite potent? Absolutely. Enough to continue to drive bad candidates like Victor Marx in CO and Paxton in TX? Yeah, probably.
Man, I’d love to believe its down to just a third of the party. I’m not seeing it here. One case where I’d be overjoyed to be wrong.
MAGA followers are usually on a “… poor basis for making a decision,”
People get triggered when I point this out but the vast majority of republican voters are old non-productive people and they are dying out fast. This is a key component of the “demographic death spiral” I keep commenting about that neither political party can fix.
https://www.npr.org/2026/11/04/nx-s1-6028080/voter-polls-midterms-demographics
This last election cycle it seems more older people were coming to their senses but it was likely fear of social security and medicare being cut.
Young people swung toward Trump in’24 and away now. That carried weight. Trump’s fake promises to them turned out to be obvious mirages. As in Europe, they want some coherent path toward a future. Leadership had better address that.
Those elders will be dying by the tens of thousands per day soon enough. Think of the resources released! The price drops!
The Silent Generation likewise had a lot of elders around, relative to their numbers. It happens.
We are all free to digest any commentary that we want to. I personally am an economic libertarian, I ran my own construction company for 45 yrs. Socially I am WAY left, if it doesn’t cost me too much. I like it here because many have courage to say what they think, its the backbone of democracy, little “d”. I shoveled shite for 20 yrs in my animal pens, I don’t like the human BS, it’s gross. Right On Mish!
Well done.
Mish,
I never knew what mensch meant until now, but I agree that you fit the bill.
TD