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Expect a Deep Recession to Start This Quarter or Early Third Quarter

June 2, 2022

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7:18 pm

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98 comments

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Economics

GDPNow Data from the Atlanta Fed, Chart by Mish

The GDPNow Forecast was at 2.5 percent on the May 17 retail sales report. It’s now 1.3 percent and falling fast.

This snip is from June 1.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on June 1, down from 1.9 percent on May 27. After this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, and this morning’s construction spending report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 4.7 percent and -6.4 percent, respectively, to 4.4 percent and -8.2 percent, respectively.

Stall Rate

1.3 percent is below the stall rate. However, Real Final Sales is the number to watch.

That’s the true bottom line number for the economy. The rest is inventory adjustment which nets to zero over time.

The GDPNow estimate for Real Final Sales is a very respectable 2.9 percent.

Why the Recession Call?

On April 28, I reported GDP Declines 1.4% in First Quarter of 2022 Sounding Recession Bells

Economists missed the mark badly as GDP shrunk along with real final sales.

Real final sales was negative in the first quarter and I expect a repeat in the second quarter because I do not believe retail sales will hold up.

On May 17, I noted Retail Sales Easily Beat Expectations, US Treasury Yields Jump in Response

However, the next day I noted Target Plunges 25%, What About Yesterday’s Big Retail Sales Blowout?

The advance retail sales reports by the commerce department were stunning. Reports by Target and Walmart strongly suggest something else.

Car sales in April were also a disaster.

Automotive News reports Market loses more steam; SAAR tumbles to 2022 low

May U.S. auto sales: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Subaru post declines behind choked supply chains, tough comparison to robust May 2021

Add it all up and retail sales are crashing. A recession is now on the near horizon.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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98 Comments

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david halte

4 years ago

The government and Fed’s intent is to reduce Q3 inflation. Q3 determines increases in SS and other social services. If the government and BLS can massage the numbers, and bring inflation down to 6 percent (see falling corn and wheat prices – subsidies?), statistically negative “real” GDP may not happen until early 2023.

In October 2014, Yellen announced the end of QE. She continued to drive long-rates to their lows until the end of year. Real GDP increased in the first 2 quarters of 2015, although yields on Treasury Notes started to rise. It wasn’t until Q4 2015 that real GDP fell below 1 percent. Real GDP remained positive because of distorted 2 percent inflation.

Jojo

4 years ago

Looming Price Hikes on Food Set to Hit Americans This Fall

Higher inflation could force Fed action, leading to a ‘deeper recession’

Updated: May 31, 2022

In its effort to contain inflation, the Federal Reserve has begun what many expect to be a series of interest rate boosts, which are already taking a toll on stock and housing markets, with job losses likely to follow. While Americans grow weary of record high gas and grocery prices, however, another round of price increases is making its way through the food supply chain and is expected to reach consumers this fall.

“People don’t realize what’s fixing to hit them,” Texas farmer Lynn “Bugsy” Allen said. “They think it’s tough right now; you give it until October. Food prices are going to double.”

The 8.8 percent increase in food prices that Americans have already seen doesn’t take into account the dramatically higher costs that farmers are now experiencing. That’s because farmers pay upfront and only recoup their expenses at the point of sale, months later.

“Usually, what we see on the farm, the consumer doesn’t see for another 18 months,” said John Chester, a Tennessee farmer of corn, wheat, and soybeans. But with the severity of these cost increases, consumers could feel the effects much sooner, particularly if weather becomes a factor.

…

https://www.theepochtimes.com/looming-price-hikes-on-food-set-to-hit-americans-this-fall_4498663.html

Lisa_Hooker

4 years ago

Reply to Jojo

If you think food prices are bad news, wait until you see what it’s going to cost to heat your home this winter.

Jojo

4 years ago

Reply to Lisa_Hooker

No worries. Everyone’s wealthy now from money made in the market, government stimulus payments, home asset expansion, etc. As they say around here, “a Tesla in every pot”…

oee

4 years ago

Yes , the economy created 390000 jobs in May. That is not a sign of recession. The economy will slow down from 5.40 % , but no recession in the horizon.

worleyeoe

4 years ago

Reply to oee

As much as I want to see a recession, I’ve been saying since April that I think 1st Qrt 2023 is a better estimate. There’s still way too much energy / momentum in services. A slowdown in the housing market doesn’t matter until there’s enough job losses which eventually leads to foreclosures, neither of which are in the cards right now.

TechLover1

4 years ago

Reply to worleyeoe

Many experienced employees have retired early during the pandemic. They might not come back to the workforce.

My worst fear is that we will have a bad recession with high demand for employees leading to price increases. Prolonged stagflation with tanking asset prices and spiraling increases in wages and prices. That will be a real wealth destructor and leave both asset owners and workers worse off in the long run (in real money terms).

worleyeoe

4 years ago

Reply to TechLover1

The latest reports suggest that 25% of potential retirees are now considering delaying retiring.

I have a strong feeling that a significant number of the ~11M job openings are for companies wanting to grow their business. If so, these jobs will vanish, once a recession arrives.

Don’t worry though, with 1.35M illegal immigrants over the last 16 months, we’ll have all the labor we need. We’ll just have to figure out a way to teach them English ; )

Rogue_Onesie

4 years ago

Reply to oee

employment is a super lagging indicator and the least used for recession measures. do a little research before posting …the interwebs are 90% unsubstantiated inaccuracies and falsehoods, why join this? recession is upon us … https://twitter.com/businesscycle/status/1532731318190104576

worleyeoe

4 years ago

I sure hope so. Moderate recession = tamed inflation

Christoball

4 years ago

Many sectors and industries are already in recession.

Nasty Edwin

4 years ago

Stock market still way overvalued, massive amounts of debt and soaring interest rates, Stimulus has worn off, housing in a massive bubble, economy rapidly slowing. The can has been kicked as far as possible. All the stimulus, QE and debt was borrowing from the future. Time to pay the Piper. Not excited about it but being real.

worleyeoe

4 years ago

Reply to Nasty Edwin

With all the chatter about how bad things have gone this year, the DOW is still above 33K. Agreed, that’s way overvalued. Let’s talk when it breaks through 20K and then “maybe” we can pop our heads up looking for the bottom that still might have 15K as the downside.

Jackula

4 years ago

Interesting! And China’s zero Covid policy is about to go full train wreck as Omicron explodes there. This little bounce in the US equities shouldn’t but seems to be giving the FED enough courage to continue rate hikes thru Sept. What could possibly go wrong?

Sunriver

4 years ago

L shaped recovery and how long for recovery to ensue? Six months (like a run of the mill bear market) or say 10 years? I’m not liking this setup given how far from the ‘trend line” stocks are. Amazing rallies followed by long ‘gutterish” downturns? Probably. Liquidity has indeed dried up.

8dots

4 years ago

Russian tankers switch oil with Chinese tankers near Create. Putin sell at elevated wholesale prices, China, retail. Putin isn’t complaining. Bypassing the west will cure the high oil prices. Natgas is something else. NatGas might blowup European fake unity.

RonJ

4 years ago

Reply to 8dots

I was reading that selling LNG to Europe will cut natgas supplied in the U.S. driving the cost here in the U.S. How happy will U.S. consumers be with higher heating and electricity bills be, this winter, assuming supplies can’t be ramped up?

Anon1970

4 years ago

Reply to RonJ

It serves us right for meddling in Ukraine’s affairs. We had no business encouraging the Maidan revolution of 2014.

SyTuck

4 years ago

Reply to Anon1970

Keep in mind it goes far beyond Maidan lane. The US has been encouraging Ukraine to kick sand in Russia’s face for almost a decade now.

War was the plan all along. Good job boys. You finally succeeded.

Jojo

4 years ago

Reply to Anon1970

Putin’s invasions, in the past and in Ukraine currently, should be an affair of the whole world.

MPO45

4 years ago

The “working class” has been in a recession since covid started, the “professional class” has been doing just fine. Microsoft announced a cut to forecast not because of demand but because of the strong dollar. Go figure. We’ll see if there is any impact to the pros but the working class is about to get the shaft a bit harder.

bring on the recession, I am gushing with cash ready to invest in good opportunities in stocks and real estate.

Casual_Observer2020

4 years ago

Reply to MPO45

The recession I’m afraid is only the beginning. I’m not even sure a recession will bring prices down that much. And a L shaped recession means asset values going down but it does NOT mean commodities will also retreat.

PapaDave

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

Because commodity prices are based on global supply and demand. A US recession has only a minor impact on global demand.

Casual_Observer2020

4 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

The US consumer is still the largest driver of goods that require energy to be produced. That shoe has yet to drop but I predict it will by the end of 2022.

PapaDave

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

Yes. US consumers are big spenders, but there are still only 0.33 billion vs 7.5 billion in the rest of the world. And they all have to consume food and energy.

Casual_Observer2020

4 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

You must not know the average consumer in the US consumes about 70% more than the average person outside the US. If you compare some developing countries to the US, it is actually much worse (about 7 to 1). Raw population will tell you nothing.

PapaDave

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

I am very aware of US overconsumption. I am also aware that the impact of US overconsumption on worldwide commodity prices is declining every single year as standards of living keep increasing around the world and their consumption skyrockets.One simple example: Number of registered vehicles. Over the last 11 years the US has added 25 million vehicles while China has added 222 million and India has added 192 million. That is a lot of increased consumption outside of the US.

US 2010: 250 million

India 2010: 128 million

China 2010: 78 million

US 2021: 275 million

India 2021: 320 million

China 2021: 300 million

Mish

4 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

Expect a global recession

EU likely in one already

PapaDave

4 years ago

Reply to Mish

Indeed. It is good to be prepared for what is coming. The difficulty, as you know, is to get the timing right.

I sold all my tech and other growth stocks long ago to raise cash. In fact I sold a little too early, but of course, no one gets their timing perfect.

I am left with my core position in oils, banks and utilities. And my trading position which is taking advantage of the volatility.

What are you holding? I always like to hear what others are investing in.

Casual_Observer2020

4 years ago

If prices are going up during a recession you know we need a depression for prices to go down. Putin really is doing a number on the West and the central banks of the world. There appears to be no way out without killing the entire global economy. CTRL+ALT+DEL.

ColoradoAccountant

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

Was it Putin or the sanctions that are doing the number? “Not our war!” said the Founding Fathers.

Jojo

4 years ago

Reply to ColoradoAccountant

If you want to worship and follow the Founding Fathers, then everyone needs to do so in all instances. That means that guns were only for neighborhood militias simply because the USA did not have a standing army back then. Since we now have an army to protect us, there is no need for guns to be kept in people’s houses.

RunnerDan

4 years ago

Reply to Jojo

No, Jojo. Here is a refresher:

“Second Amendment Bearing and Keeping Arms

A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”

Note the “free state” depending on an armed citizenry and the lack of “we only are allowing you to have guns because we don’t have a standing army…”

Jojo

4 years ago

Reply to RunnerDan

You failed English and reading comprehension in school, yes?

radar

4 years ago

Reply to Jojo

“The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government.” — Thomas Jefferson

“Let your gun therefore be the constant companion of your walks.” — Thomas Jefferson

“Those who hammer their guns into plows will plow for those who do not.” Thomas Jefferson

“The Constitution preserves the advantage of being armed which Americans possess over the people of almost every other nation…(where) the governments are afraid to trust the people with arms.”James Madison, The Federalist #46.

“Firearms stand next in importance to the Constitution itself. They are the American people’s liberty teeth and keystone under independence.”George Washington.

“No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms.”Thomas Jefferson, Proposed Virginia Constitution (1776), Jefferson Papers 344 (J. Boyd, ed. 1950).

“The great object is, that every man be armed…Everyone who is able may have a gun…”

Patrick Henry, 3 Elliott Debates 386.

“Arms discourage and keep the invader and plunderer in awe, and preserve order in the world as well as property. Horrid mischief would ensue were the law-abiding deprived of the use of them.”Thomas Paine, Thoughts on Defensive War (1775).

“Guard with jealous attention the public liberty. Suspect every one who approaches that jewel. Unfortunately, nothing will preserve it but downright force. Whenever you give up that force, you are ruined.”Patrick Henry, during Virginia ‘s ratification convention (1788).

“Before a standing army can rule, the people must be disarmed; as they are in almost every kingdom in Europe . The supreme power in America can not enforce unjust laws by the sword, because the whole body of the people are armed, and constitute a force superior to any band of regular troops that can be, on any pretense, raised in the United States.”Noah Webster, An Examination Into the Leading Principals of the Federal Constitution (1787).

“To disarm the people; that it was the best and most effectual way to enslave them…”George Mason, 3 Elliott Debates (on the Constitution) 380.

Jojo

4 years ago

Reply to radar

You can extract all the out of context quotes you want but what the founders wrote applied to single load muskets at the time, the state of technology then and yet AGAIN, was only necessary because we did not have a standing army. Look up “originalism”.

JRM

4 years ago

Reply to Jojo

It seems you do not comprehend the ENGLISH Language!!

“the right of the people to keep and bear Arms”

Zardoz

4 years ago

Reply to Jojo

Foreigners aren’t the people I’m concerned about at this point, so the army doesn’t matter. The cops won’t protect me either, if there’s any danger to themselves involved.

If we didn’t let teenagers and crazy people have guns specifically designed for killing lots of people, they wouldn’t be such a problem. It boggles the mind that Texas cut mental health funding and lowered the purchase age to 18. What did they think was gonna happen? What do they think is gonna happen if they don’t raise the age back up?

It’s just so spectacularly stupid and stubborn. Is this for real, or some ridiculous teleplay by the puppetmasters?

RunnerDan

4 years ago

Reply to Zardoz

Not nearly as dumb as not following procedures, like locking a door.

Zardoz

4 years ago

Reply to RunnerDan

Oh yes, he would have just given up and gone home to play video games if only that door had been locked.

Spectacularly Stupid.

jiminy

4 years ago

Reply to Jojo

We need weapons to defend against goverment. The bill of rights was added to protect the individual from the government. Check out the whiskey rebellion.

Zardoz

4 years ago

Reply to jiminy

You all believed that your obese messiah got cheated out of his rightful throne, and did precisely nothing with your guns about it.

Under all the noise and bravado, you all know the military would destroy you.

Jojo

4 years ago

Reply to jiminy

Your puny weapons cannot defend against a government military force. If this were not true, then Ukraine should have been able to have kicked Russia out of the country by now, no?

Casual_Observer2020

4 years ago

Reply to ColoradoAccountant

It was Putin because he had knowledge of what happens to energy and commodities when he invades. He anticipated the sanctions because the west has been imposing different sanctions on Russia for awhile. I recall reading somewhere Putin carefully saw how the US behaved during the Iraq War and studied this very carefully as part of his strategy on how the US would behave.

Jmurr

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

The inflation did not start with the war it was occurring prior to that. If you want to blame someone blame Biden and Trump.

Casual_Observer2020

4 years ago

Reply to Jmurr

I blame Congress and the Fed too. They after all control more policy than any President. The President signs or doesn’t sign but Congress and the Fed dictate far more monetary and fiscal policy than the President.

whirlaway

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

So, now you are blaming Putin for the screw-ups of the US empire establishment??!! LOL

Casual_Observer2020

4 years ago

Reply to whirlaway

Putin is a screw up himself. He could have governed differently and still gotten in the good graces of Ukraine but he chose unwisely. Eventually the global economy will be brought to its knees and Russia will collapse. He underestimated the West’s resolve to suffer and overestimated Russia’s abilities. Think of it this way. Things are nowhere near as bad as the financial crisis/global depression of 2009 but they are in Russia and getting worse everyday.

whirlaway

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

“… underestimated the West’s resolve to suffer…”

LOL. The rampant inflation and the coming (ongoing?) recession is going to lead to regime change in many of the US empire countries. Practically all of them are ruled by neoliberal warmongering parties of the right or the pseudo-left (like in the US).

So, where are the voters going to turn? Not the *actual* left, because in almost all of these countries, the real left has been sidelined and/or severely sabotaged.

Therefore, the only option remaining is the populist right. Of course, when that happens, you can fully expect the sh*tlibs and their media buddies to lament that nobody could have seen it coming!

whirlaway

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

“…. underestimated the West’s resolve to suffer”

LOL. Just wait until the West is really bit by the inflation and recession. That will lead to regime change in a lot of these countries over the next 2-3 years. In the US, it is sure to happen in 2024.

8dots

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

USSR was hit by a Dutch Disease and collapse.

killben

4 years ago

Reply to ColoradoAccountant

We needed to show Putin who is the boss. It does not matter if you put citizens under the bus by way of inflation.

Like the savers were put under the bus by the “Arsonists & Firefighters” Fed during the last decade.

At least the savers have the company of asset holders this time around.

I would love it if the inflation engulfs the Fed. It would be just desserts for the criminal act (of making anyone and everyone get on to the risk bandwagon and eviscerating savers) for over the last decade.

PapaDave

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

There is a way out. Time.

The main driver of the current inflation is shortages of energy, agricultural products, other commodities, and labor. Given time these shortages will naturally disappear through increasing supply and decreasing demand. As is often said, the cure for high prices is high prices.

Once prices rebalance at a higher level, inflation reverts to much lower levels from that point forward.

Jojo

4 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

“Once prices rebalance at a higher level, inflation reverts to much lower levels from that point forward.”

Yes, but the prices are still high and many people are not able to pay these newly high prices, given that so many here live paycheck to paycheck.

As I like to state, bread used to be 10 cents the loaf in 1935. Now it is at least $2/loaf and more generally in many supermarkets, $3-$5/loaf!

RunnerDan

4 years ago

Reply to Jojo

Bread from the bakery is still $1 at Walmart. Most everything else has gone up though, for sure. So, given we have limited resources, how should they be allocated? We have two choices: do it fairly or not.

If not fairly, then whom shall we disadvantage?

Progressive Answer: “Disadvantage those who most likely won’t vote for us!”

Jojo

4 years ago

Reply to RunnerDan

SOME bread is at that price, mostly what appears to be the spongy [uneatable to me] white bread that is pumped up full of air. The vast majority of loaves are still past $2 though.

https://www.walmart.com/search?q=bread&sort=price_low

PapaDave

4 years ago

Reply to Jojo

Yes. Living standards drop by the level of inflation. And it does hurt lower income people disproportionately. But so does a depression.

I was just stating an alternative to a depression, which you were suggesting was the only way to stop the current inflation.

radar

4 years ago

Reply to Jojo

You have to remember though that the average wage in 1935 was around 20 cents an hour. Bread may have been more expensive then than it is today.

Jojo

4 years ago

Reply to radar

This is true and it introduces much complexity into the discussion. Bread and everything else) increased in cost. These increases cause some workers in some industries to get raises to compensate while others get nothing or take years to get something, falling behind their paychecks for extended periods and often never catching up again. Yet prices continually increase, rarely ever going the opposite direction.

The median income for a single person in 2021 was around $51k. I started out in my first computer job as a mainframe system programmer working for a non-profit at the grand rate of $11k/year! A few job changes later with a move into working for a mainframe vendor and by 1983 I was at $45k. Through the mid-90’s, working for a variety of different vendor companies in the technology industry and I never received a base salary greater than $62k. I transitioned to technology sales and made a good deal more but ales is a hard slog.

Today, I read the following story about a guy getting paid $450k as a Sr. programmer who doesn’t look older than 25 years old. And he was bored. So he quit! Something you can easily afford to do if you save a good amount of such an income for a few years. Google. FB, Microsoft, etc apparently pay their programmers a minimum of $250-300k these days. It’s crazy. This is the root of inflation! Too much easy money circulating increases the cost of everything.

I quit my job as a Netflix engineer making $450,000 a year. The money wasn’t worth the boredom.

Jun 1, 2022, 6:51 AM

– Michael Lin joined Netflix in 2017 as a senior software engineer. At first, he enjoyed his role.

– After two years, Lin wanted to go into product management but found no clear pipeline to follow.

– He lost motivation and eventually received his preemptive severance package in May 2021.

….

https://www.businessinsider.com/quit-job-at-netflix-senior-engineer-boredom-six-figures-2022-5

Captain Ahab

4 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

This is not true if markets are controlled. For example, high fuel prices should induce more drilling for oil. ‘fraid NOT with President Cluster Fudge.

PapaDave

4 years ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

Higher prices encourage less demand and more supply. But since supply is so constrained by a lack of capex spending for so many years now, it is mostly demand that will have to adjust.

Lisa_Hooker

4 years ago

Reply to PapaDave

The main driver of inflation is the immense piles of money and assets laying around.

Thank you Congress, the Pres and the Federal Reserve.

Folks with money and assets far above what they need for survival can afford to pay for what they want, bidding up prices in the process. Frugality is not required.

PapaDave

4 years ago

Reply to Lisa_Hooker

I disagree.

While excess US dollars can drive up US house and stock prices, the same cannot be said for worldwide commodity prices. Worldwide markets for these commodities are many times the size of US markets.

The price of basics like food and energy are driving the current inflation. A year from now, food and energy prices will still likely be at these levels, which will begin to drop the yoy US inflation numbers.

Lisa_Hooker

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

Sometimes CTRL+ALT+DEL simply does not work.

You then have to pull the plug or remove the battery completely.

Subsequently sometimes it fails to boot.

Casual_Observer2020

4 years ago

Reply to Lisa_Hooker

Replace drive and motherboard and start again.

Lisa_Hooker

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

You could use a live Linux or BSD CD and try a fix. 😉

RonJ

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

“Putin really is doing a number on the West and the central banks of the world.”

A mass formation psychosis. It does a number on a large group of people.

Apparently, Fauci admitted the mask mandate was about about preserving authority. The Russian sanctions are the same thing. The U.S. is in charge of the “world order.”

In 1980 Saddam invaded Iran. That was acceptable to the U.S. government. In 1990 Saddam invaded Kuait. That was not. Yanukovich was not acceptable to the U.S., Yats was.

Lisa_Hooker

4 years ago

Reply to RonJ

“Yats is our guy.”

Jojo

4 years ago

Reply to RonJ

Alameda county here in the SF Bay Area reinstituted their indoor mask mandate today. If this spreads, his will definitely go against the Dems in the next election.

Zardoz

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

The global economy has been staggering around with a hatchet in its skull for over a decade. It was gonna tip over sooner or later.

Jojo

4 years ago

Reply to Casual_Observer2020

How about if someone just kills Putin?

Six000mileyear

4 years ago

Suppose the cargo ships arrive at ports and are instantly unloaded. There is still a potential problem with electronic components. The more advanced ones are highly susceptible to moisture and heat. Despite being sealed with desiccant to absorb the moisture, such prolonged exposure to heat and humidity at sea will push the package and humidity control to its limits. Once the package of chips are opened on the factory floor, the manufacturer will find some humidity indicator cards to be unacceptable humidity levels. At that point the chips might have to be baked or thrown out. This will cause delays and or decreases in supplies. If manufacturers ignore the humidity indicators or choose not to bake the exposed parts; then those components may crack under the extreme temperature change that takes place in a reflow oven. Worse yet, boards that have been weakened, but passed quality inspection, may fail when used by customers. There are still many known risks that financial media is not reporting.

Lisa_Hooker

4 years ago

Reply to Six000mileyear

Customer failures aren’t a problem anymore. Just give ’em a new one and shut ’em up.

shamrock

4 years ago

I wondered about that paragraph from GDPNow because it doesn’t seem to make any sense. The 2 reports mentioned, manufacturing and construction, were both higher month over month and higher than consensus predictions. And with that info they drastically reduced estimates for 2 seemingly unrelated indicators. smh. Not buying it.

SAKMAN1

4 years ago

Reply to shamrock

I cant get a contractor to call me back in so cal right now. Doesnt feel like a recession.

Mish

4 years ago

Reply to shamrock

The actual numbers do not matter.

For GDPNow what matters is the reports vs what the model expected. Even though ISM beat economists’ expectations, some set of numbers came in less than the model expected.

shamrock

4 years ago

Reply to Mish

Yep, understood. But just seeing those ridiculous revisions from +4.7 to -6.4 and +4.4 to -8.2 on now real news at all sort of make me lose faith in the model.

8dots

4 years ago

In May : SPX, DOW, NYA and IWM monthly are all green. NDX was red, but who cares, because NDX already reached Monthly DM #12, leaving SPX and the DOW behind. if June end up in green good things might happen in Q3. No recession in 2022.

Mish

4 years ago

Reply to 8dots

No recession in 2022

Thanks I’ll make a note

Captain Ahab

4 years ago

As gloom and doom draws steadily nearer…

1) When will the Fed push the ‘PANIC NOW’ button, moot though it is?

2) How many trillions will the Democraps throw away in order to buy votes?

3) Will the US go to war to preserve the Democrapic Majority?

Did anyone notice how Yellen ‘adroitly’ skirted responsibility for economic disaster by admitting she misjudged inflation (not transitory) and supply chain effects?

Doug78

4 years ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

Admitting that she was wrong about inflation is not skirting responsibility but rather accepting responsibility. I find it refreshing because it is rare for a public official to say they were wrong about something very important. Normally they try to blame factors supposedly “out of their control”.

Captain Ahab

4 years ago

Reply to Doug78

What is coming down the ‘pike will make current inflation rates look ‘good.’

vanderlyn

4 years ago

Reply to Captain Ahab

stagflationary decade ahead. potential bust up of empire too. i doubt we will have but one or 2 more presidential elections before it’s back to pre 1860 states rights…….

Lisa_Hooker

4 years ago

Reply to vanderlyn

Hope springs eternal…

Zardoz

4 years ago

Reply to vanderlyn

We need it desperately. Too many variations of crazy in this country to live under one set of rules.

Business Man

4 years ago

Picture Joe Biden on his knees in front of Carrie Fisher (U.S. voters) with an “assault weapon” aimed at him:

“I ran out of gas! I got a flat tire! I didn’t have change for cab fare! I lost my tux at the cleaners! I locked my keys in the car! An old friend came in from out of town! Someone stole my car! There was an earthquake! A terrible flood! Locusts! IT WASN’T MY FAULT, I SWEAR TO GOD!”

What excuse will they present next?

(Blues Brothers reference is gratuitous, but I’m in a Blues kind of mood)

Zardoz

4 years ago

Reply to Business Man

This has been building since they papered over the recession at the end of Bush II’s term. Biden is a newcomer.

Captain Ahab

4 years ago

Reply to Business Man

Actually, Biden has been looking at the Pornhub link Hunter sent him two years ago.

Maximus_Minimus

4 years ago

Reply to Business Man

A shrewd election advisor would keep Biden quiet as if not involved in this election, and bet Trump will do more damage than good.

Business Man

4 years ago

Reply to Maximus_Minimus

That was the same strategy as last time.

vanderlyn

4 years ago

Reply to Business Man

biden is an abomination of course, but his revival of the very successful but little used “front porch campaign’ of 2020 was brilliant. i suspect the Rs taking over congress will help sleepy joe for 2024. the junk that biden will veto will make him look ready for mt rushmore. of course he’ll blame infltion on R congress.

JRM

4 years ago

Reply to vanderlyn

Biden will step down for health reasons after Nov!!!!

Cause the left will be gunning for him after they are punished in Nov elections!!

vanderlyn

4 years ago

Reply to JRM

no way he steps down. challenged in primaries. sure. very possible.

Zardoz

4 years ago

Reply to Maximus_Minimus

Hire a couple trolls to poke his ego to get him going…

Doug78

4 years ago

Reply to Business Man

Great film!

Karlmarx

4 years ago

I was recently asked on a news show if the country was going to go into a period of stagflation. I commented that we already were – the Stag part is -1.5 percent and the flation part is 8.4 percent. How is that not the definition of stagflation!

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Expect a Deep Recession to Start This Quarter or Early Third Quarter

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