Advance Retail Sales Key Points
- Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $677.7 billion, an increase of 0.9 percent from the previous month, and 8.2 percent above April 2021.
- Retail trade sales were up 0.7 percent from March 2022, and up 6.7 percent above last year.
- Gasoline stations were up 36.9 percent from April 2021
- Food services and drinking places were up 19.8 percent from last year.
- The February 2022 to March 2022 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent to up 1.4 percent.
US Treasury Yields
Treasury yields of middle and long-end duration rose on the data.
Advance Retail Sales Detail
The three “free money” Covid stimulus jumps in April of 2020, January of 2021 and March of 2021 are clearly visible in the above chart. Retail spending did not cool after those jumps.
A big picture helps explain inflation.
Advance Retail Sales 1992 to Present
Covid seems to have accelerated retail sales.
In reality, it was all the free money, eviction moratoriums, increased participants on SNAP (food stamps), and a stock market boom, now fading.
These numbers are not really good news. The Fed will have to get in more rate hikes than I expected if spending holds up.
This brings us back to Tweets of the Day: The Fed’s Policy Is to Hurt and Credit Words of Warning
It’s more than that, Danielle. He is ready to go full on Volcker if that is what it takes. Credit is going to reprice HARD here. We are hundreds, maybe 1000’s of basis points away from a pivot.
— Stimpyz (@Stimpyz1) May 12, 2022
This post originated at MishTalk.Com.
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