In a rambling Speech, Trump signals out Canada.
At the 2:50 mark Trump mentions “Car plants coming in from Canada who ripped us off at 30 percent of our market.“
It’s easy to fact check nonsensical claims with actual trade data dating back to 2002.
The lead charts shows that excluding oil, the US has had a trade surplus with Canada for 18 years.
US Trade With Canada Goods Only
Chart Notes
- Red Line: Total Balance
- Blue Line: Imports from Canada
- Green Line: Exports to Canada
Dashed lines are the same, but oil only.
For 2025, the total balance with Canada was – 53 billion. But the oil balance was -84 billion. Excluding oil, the US has a goods trade surplus with Canada of 31 billion.
Q: Why exclude oil?
A: Because the US needs Canadian oil and gets it at bargain prices too!
U.S. Refineries and Canadian Crude Oil
Please consider the Institute for Energy Report on U.S. Refineries and Canadian Crude Oil emphasis by the IER.
U.S. refineries, with a capacity of 18.4 million barrels per day, play a significant role in international trade—importing crude oil from Canada and Mexico while exporting high-value refined goods to regions such as Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas. Overall, the industry generates over $688 billion in annual economic activity and supports nearly 3 million jobs.
The last major oil refinery built in the United States was constructed in 1976. Many U.S. refineries were built to process heavier crude grades because, at the time, many believed U.S. oil production was in long-term decline and didn’t foresee the shale oil boom. The assumption was that any increase in crude production would come from heavy oils in the Middle East, Latin America, and Canada. When you combine this with the proximity of Canada and Mexico, crude oil from these countries remains a vital resource for several U.S. refineries, helping to produce liquid fuels and other petroleum products for both domestic use and international export. On top of that, Canadian oil is often priced at a discount, typically 15% or more lower than U.S. crude, due to factors like transportation costs, quality differences, and a more limited buyer pool. This discount plays an essential role in the economics of our domestic oil refineries as their profits are determined by the margin between the cost of crude oil and the revenue generated from selling the refined products.
A proposed 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would seriously disrupt the supply chain U.S. refineries rely on to produce the fuels and petroleum products Americans use every day. Even with upgrades to existing infrastructure, many refineries simply aren’t built to accommodate such a significant tariff on Canadian crude. Given the long timelines for planning and permitting the necessary changes, plus the fact that refineries depend on refining margins to stay profitable, it would take several years for refineries to adapt to the changes in oil trade flows brought about by these tariffs.
In the meantime, many refineries would struggle financially and many might be forced to shut down.
The greatest impact would be felt in the Midwest, where refineries are uniquely designed for heavier-grade Canadian crude to produce transportation fuels, and these fuels are primarily used for domestic consumption. In the Midwest region (PADD 2), Canadian crude accounts for 100% of crude oil imports, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Refineries in the Midwest are set up to process nearly 70% of the heavy-grade Canadian crude imported into the U.S. Therefore, consumers in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Ohio would face the greatest impact from the expected higher prices due to these tariffs.
Energy Synopsis
- The US gets Canadian oil at a 15 percent discount, and it’s oil that our refineries are built to handle.
- The US exports West Texas Intermediate, a higher grade of oil, at a higher price.
- Excluding oil, the US has a trade surplus with Canada for 18 years.
Q: What About Services?
A:The US runs a constant services trade surplus with most of the world.
The BEA does not include services in its download and services data lags. Otherwise, I would create more charts.
For 2024, the US had a services surplus with Canada of 33 billion. Thus, excluding oil, the US has goods and services surplus with Canada of 65 billion for 2024.
Rather than buy Canadian oil, for which pipelines and supply chain are already in place, at a 15 percent discount too, Trump would rather get oil from Venezuela.
And Trump claims Canada is ripping us off. Heck, Trump is ripping off Canada and the US, while stealing oil from Venezuela.
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There are huge flaws in the Section 122 tariff idea.
You are ignoring the fact that Canada uses more than it share of the “u”, Eh.
Actually it was the US that misused $’s Reserve Currency status to not only rip off the whole world but resort illegal Sanctions ,imposing trans-national actions by the US Treasury and DOJ.
Let’s pause a moment, and smell the maple syrup dripping over the poutine fries.
Isn’t Trump already a lame duck? What actual policy objective promised has been achieved besides pardoning the J6ers and closing the border (which was easier than beating Joe Biden at Scrabble)?
Maybe he can send the Canucks one of those Yuge and Beeeutiful hospital ships so they won’t have to euthanize all their elders, eh?
Trump has just started his fight over USMCA trade deal because there is a window when it may be amended or cancelled in summer 2026. He tries to scare Canadians to death. His favorite tactics.
People spend too much time locked in Trump frames which are thrown up with no regard facts. Reciprocal tariffs, ripping off, the external revenue service, national security in the Baffin Sea … these are all red herrings — just don’t even try to talk about it, it’s all mired in dishonesty and ignorance.
As long as Trump cannot wrap his mind around such things as average weighted tariffs, you may as well talk about the state of the world.to an earthworm in your backyard.
Is the aircraft carrier toilet thing a psyop to back away from Iran?
@Mish,
You gonna give us a preview of tonight’s SOTU? How batsh!t crazy is Trump going to go?
No matter what happens, I’m sure some volatility will come out of it.
I expect just incoherent rambling, to the cheer of professional sycophants, so I won’t waste my time.
Here is my bingo card for Trump’s speech.
Lapdogs (reference to SCOTUS)
Tariffs (mentioned at least 5 times)
Self-aggrandizing (hugest/bigly/greatest trade deals and/or himself)
Elections (mentioned at least 3 times)
Fraud (mentioned at least 3 times)
Iran (mentioned at least 3 times)
Loses chain of thought at least twice
Incoherent at least three times
Bonus wild card – unplanned bowel movement.
At some point he’ll either bring out the Mens gold medal team or reference them in the speech as ‘winning’ and insinuate he was responsible for that in some way.
So add that to the Bingo card.
You forgot something incoherent about China and wars that the Tramp stopped, including in the Ukraine, because he’s got a hard on Putin.
don’t forget “woke” and “transgender”
So, was there anything new for Mish to respond too? I didn’t watch, but from what I read, you covered it perfectly, lol.
All well and good but the Trump syndicate is not getting its “fair” share from Canada. And there are no Trump properties in Canada either. They refuse to bend the knee and will darn well pay the cost of spurning the king.
Nero is always claiming injury nothing new….
We have peaceful border with Canada they are trade partners we can’t afford to lose! This regime is collapsing our economy and it looks like it is on purpose
US Canadian trade goes both ways it is a win win situation
Somebody tell the regime that the war of 1812 is over and this hurts our economy extremely
MAGA will say you are Anti Trumpmedic but they will never say you are a liar.
They will however, lie right to your face, rape your daughter and laugh as they walk away from any deal they made.
No point in dealing with Trump at all. Carney has pretty much told Trump to F-Off!.
Who does Trump work for?
Maybe there is vid of a russian hooker peeing on him.
He only cares about himself and family wealth. Think it was chris rock back in the day. Said behind every great fortune is a great crime.
Canada sells oil at a discount because there is no suitable infrastructure in place to meaningfully move that oil elsewhere. Canada has relied on the US refiners for decades. Complacency has costs.
I do not know if u r correct about the oil but who cares we get an excellent discount
With and API of 40 and high sulfur content it is not great feedstock. That said, it is far better than Venezuela’s 14 API sludge. Canada sold the first 20 years of LNG production to China right after Trump early second term tariffs. That gas was anticipated to go to California to lower their costs while loan offshore was shut down.
Trump screwed Americans on that one and now Canada is resuming construction of another large scale pipeline to the west coast to export crude to China.
If Trump hates Americans so badly why did he want to be President? Is it just a power trip like exploiting underage girls?
Oh the joys of having a Malignant Narcissist as leader.
And now featuring Temporal Dementia!
The problem with die hard Trump supporters is that you can provide them with facts, but you can’t read them for them or understand them for them.
There is nothing like a false allegation or outright lie to make a former friend or trading partner hate you.
Welcome to the “Dark Ages of Trump”
The Stupicannce?
Trump is absolutely right. Canadians are maniacal, evil, manipulative monsters. They knew that if they made the price of their oil cheap enough that America would retool all of its refineries to only take Canadian heavy sour oil. They intentionally did this much like a pusher hooks the user. Canada needs to be punished for this and should now be forced to give away its oil for free to America to redress the shamefull exploitation of hopelessly gullible Americans.
You didn’t do very well in school, did you. You need to work on your reading comprehension skills.
I don’t even think this a real person and if they are, they are working in a bot farm in southeast Asia given their command of the language.
You guys are just funnin. Yall must have gone to the Eveleen Wood Head Sped Reddin Skool of Leerin and Comprension, They say bein edumacated is nedded to Comprend Sargassum.
What if John had added a “/s” to his post, without you rethink what you wrote? BTW, I think that an “/s” is implied in his post.
you are correct Augustine, I is is I who cannot read. But then again I am man enough to admit I made mistake.
Well played Mountain Man Bridger, well played
I see what you did there.
Great summary Mish!
The US has been “using” or “taking advantage” of Canada for a long time now. Canada willingly sells us their natural resources, often at a discount, and we process them into higher value finished products and sell them back to Canadians for a nice profit.
I am not sure why Canadians accepted this rather one-sided relationship. Perhaps it was because it was easier to accept selling at a discount to their next door neighbour (who spoke the same language and had similar legal and commercial structures) than do the hard work of selling to countries at great distances with different languages and cultures.
This relationship is now changing.
Trump has spent the last year insulting, belittling, and pissing off Canadians. And it’s had a big impact.
Trump dramatically changed the outcome of Canada’s last election. Instead of the pro America, pro Trump Conservative Party winning an expected landslide election, Canadians flipped the script and elected yet another Liberal government with the priority of reaching out to the rest of the world.
Since then, Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney has been crisscrossing the world, expanding Canada’s trade relationships with as many countries as possible. All with the goal of reducing Canada’s dependence on the US. He has warned Canadians that this will take time, but they seem willing to let the process play out. Particularly whenever Trump opens his mouth to insult them yet again.
It is beyond stupid for Trump to spoil this relationship with Canada. America will be weaker as a result.
A few points of order…
We never accepted it. We were forced in to it. Whenever a canadian company would develop something that was competitive against the US, the americans would come in a buy it to take over it’s production, or dissolve it so they didn’t have to compete.
Here is where you MSM bias starts trickling in. All parties have a long history of being Pro-America (because US money talks VERY loudly up here). The Poilievre conservatives are perhaps the least American friendly party we’ve had in a long time. Trump has even said so himself.
The Trudeau/Carney liberals made matters much worse by shutting down pipeline projects to the coasts (with protesters largely sponsored by American interest groups, including the US oil Majors). The Trans Mountain finally got made by the government (at 10X the cost) at the point of sword of Western Canada and Canadian conservatives nation wide.
btw there’s a long history of fossil fuel interests in the US bankrolling indigenous protest to various energy projects across this country.
Don’t collectivize this, most Canadian’s are very angry at how Trump effectively hijacked our elections. We didn’t elect another liberal in, Gen-Z and the Elderly elected Trump out.
Again, this is spin. If you actually listen to Carney’s words, especially that Davos speech, his goal is a “New World Order”. All his actions point to a weaker, more fractured canada, that will be more dependant on the US as we lose the ability to handle our own affairs because of mass immigration, unproductive green initiatives, and growing socialism and censorship.
Oh and as for those trade agreements, even if they came through 10 fold, they wouldn’t put much more than a marginal dent in our trade equation with the US. It takes a lot of middle powers across oceans to add up to one superpower at our doorstep.
More media spin. The ground work for Canadian self-reliance could have be laid on Day Two of office. The world has been begging for our energy for 10 years now. Striking off the pipeline and tanker ban would immediately put us on the right track.
If you notice what Carney has done in the last year, is implement all kinds of new laws that don’t correct the Fossil fuel restrictions, but instead work around them. So that effectively the laws don’t actually matter to him and he can approve and decline things at his whim. Fine for when it’s a tanker ban or LNG terminal, but what about when it’s a conflict of interest law? A foreign interference law? A property rights law? A law on controlling boarders?
As it currently stands, Canada is un-investable not because of Trump, but because of a mountain of Liberal regulations, fees, and taxes. It takes several years just to get something simple like a housing subdivision approved in Canada, let alone built.
And here we definitely agree. Trump had a willing and passive vassal state at it’s disposal. Now he’s kicked up anger that previously was only simmering under the surface.
However to think that the liberals have anything to offer to counter act American imperialism is to misunderstand who the liberals are up here and how much they are actively against exploiting the very few advantages Canada has over the US.
Carney lost me at the end of his speech when he was in a way joining the EU doubling down on the NATO agenda. He was doing well, but methinks that he’s controlled opposition.
A NATO commitment he is apparently going to fill with an army of foreign peasant mercenaries. What could possibly go wrong.
“Remember: Service means citizenship”
“ The Poilievre conservatives are perhaps the least American friendly party we’ve had in a long time.”
Lol! Are you joking?
Poilievre never criticized Trump or America during the entire election campaign for fear of alienating his own voters, many of whom would show up to his rallies wearing MAGA hats and shirts, while carrying Trump signs and American flags.
Meanwhile Carney’s Liberals ran anti American “elbows up” ads, saying that Canada would never become the 51st state.
Which is why they won and the Conservatives lost.
First and foremost, the Liberals are for the Liberals. If it helps the country, too, that’s good, but not essential.
Pd any thoughts on ca gas prices.
Please clarify.
Canada or California?
Natural Gas or Gasoline?
Regardless politics, trade policies, and all other factors:
Most places in Canada are closer to Americans across the border than they are to other parts of Canada, so there is natural intercourse of people and goods and vacations and conferences and schooling and interest and sports competitions along the north-south axis.
Nothing in the world will ever change this geography.
The geography won’t change. But the attitudes have.
https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20251211-where-are-all-the-canadians-going
“Canadian oil is often priced at a discount, typically 15% or more lower than U.S. crude, due to factors like transportation costs, quality differences, and a more limited buyer pool”. The part about limited buyer pool is about to change as Canada is twinning an export pipeline to the west coast for marine shipping to Asia and designing a pipeline to its own refineries in the Great Lakes region to offset refined imports from US Midwest refineries. More 4-D checkers, I guess.
Since part of the Intelligence Community’s reason for attacking Iran is to control/hobble the oil supply to China, I wouldn’t put it past the CIA to attack Canada’s pipeline. Are there any Kurds in Alberta to partner with?
No but Aberta sepratisit will do in a pinch
Ah, the Northern Cousinfucker, Such resplendent plumage!
We could send some javelins to the Free Alberta Army hidden in trucks loaded with oranges.
wot is a sepratisit?
Put this VERY firmly in the “Believe it when shovels hit the ground” department.
These are all “Memos of Understanding”. The very big caveat to them is the softly spoken wording that “ALL” affected parties must agree.
Ask Mish about the European Union and clauses that require Unanimous Consent. It never happens
Carney knows this and it’s his plan. He is ideologically opposed to all fossil fuel development, but for political reasons has to appear to support it. Listen to his talks and speeches. Any time he mentions something fossil fuel related, it is always coached in non-committal language or pie-in-the-sky green tech.
Simple fact: Carney did flip on oil production and when the Kitimat LNG terminal came live in July 2025, the first 20 years of cargoes went to China instead of the anticipated California. Now Cedar is funded and being built as quickly without interference and it shows how quickly things have changed since Trump alienated your nation.
I personally benefit from good relations with Canada but my friends from there will no longer travel to the US and are selling their properties here as quickly as they can.
Carney is a banker, less liberal and less conservative than the fringes of both would prefer. Bankers think differently than most politicians do.
Canada is on the right track as long as Trump is in office and for the foreseeable future thereafter.
Enjoy!
The limited buyer pool refers not to pipeline availability but rather the type of oil.
The US is importing heavy crude at discounts because it’s lower quality oil (you get less gas per barrel when refining it) AND because only a few places on earth can refine that type of oil.
The pipelines to the coast that will go to Asia will contain the higher quality oil that Asia prefers and normally gets from the middle east.
Nope. The TMX carries mostly heavy crude from Canada’s oil sands to the west coast for export. China is buying 70% of that crude. They have no problem refining it.
Now wait a minute, if the tariffs were passed to us and companies sue to recover then what the hell?
“What the hell”
YOU got screwed is what. And now that people have gotten used to paying higher prices, companies will keep charging them.
It is great to be an asset holder and reap those profits in share appreciation or dividends though.
With Trump it’s all projection. Since he himself has ripped off people all his life, including now his own voters, he truly believes everybody else must be ripping off everybody else.
To include 4 bankruptcies that I’ve heard about: my understanding is bankruptcy was intended to be a means to a fresh start, not a business plan for ripping off lenders and investors.
Canada should oblige and halt oil exports to the US and grant them an instant trade surplus. Bingo!
That would crush midwestern farmers!
Fuck midwestern farmers and other MAGA creatures.
Lot’s of midwestern family farms going bankrupt this year. Funny thing is that many of them have big ass Trump signs along the roadside.
I like to buy whatever comes on the market that borders one of my landholdings directly from the bank.
Trump voters have to be the most gullible people on the planet!
As a Canadian reader of this blog, my question is simple. Why isn’t the US media pushing back against this false narrative??
Most Media is afraid of Trump
They own Trump and control the narrative… As long as he promotes Israel, the military complex and fossil fuel industry he can shoot people in the head and not lose any voters.
Why do you think 3 million pages of evidence of rape, murder and child sex trafficking plays second fiddle to a spokesmodels mothers disappearance?
Is there truth in ANYTHING the Government reports – – especially as represented by TRUMPCO?