Cook Warns on Fed’s Ability to Counter AI-Driven Unemployment
Bloomberg reports Cook Warns About AI-Related Job Losses.
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook warned the US central bank may not be able to counter rising unemployment driven by adoption of artificial intelligence.
“If AI continues to raise productivity, economic growth could remain strong, even as churn in the labor market leads to an increase in unemployment. In a productivity boom such as this, a rise in unemployment may not indicate increased slack,” Cook said Tuesday in Washington.
“As such, our normal demand-side monetary policy may not be able to ameliorate an AI-caused unemployment spell without also increasing inflationary pressure,” she said.
Cook’s comments are the latest in a string of recent speeches by Fed policymakers on how AI could influence monetary policy in the coming years. A few of her colleagues have recently suggested that a productivity boom spurred by AI could boost the so-called neutral rate of interest that keeps the economy stable.
In her remarks, Cook offered some factors that could push it in the other direction.
“With investment contributing to strong aggregate demand, it is possible that the current neutral rate is higher than before the pandemic,” she said.
“This could reverse when the AI productivity gains are more fully realized or if the labor market transition leads to a rise in income inequality, such that well-off consumers receive a larger share of income, which could lower the neutral rate, all else equal,” Cook said.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller, speaking Tuesday at a separate event, said the report overstated the potential impact on employment.
“AI is a tool. It’s not going to replace us as human beings,” Waller said. “This is kind of an overstated thing.”
AI Scare Trade as IBM Drops Most in 25 Years
Also consider Taleb, Citrini Fuel AI Scare Trade as IBM Drops Most in 25 Years
The artificial intelligence “scare trade” erupted again on Monday as growing concerns about the disruptive power of AI dragged down shares of delivery, payments and software companies, and sent International Business Machines Corp. to its worst plunge in 25 years.
It began after a bearish report was published over the weekend by a little known firm called Citrini Research.
The report, released on social media Sunday, outlined the potential risks to various segments of the global economy, using hypothetical scenarios set in the future, specifically calling out food delivery services and credit card companies as ones facing trouble.
Then AI startup Anthropic said in a blog post Monday that Claude Code tool can help with modernizing COBOL, a dated programming language that’s mainly run on IBM computers.
And finally came a warning from Nassim Taleb: investors should brace for escalating volatility and even bankruptcies in the software sector as the AI rally enters a fragile phase.
IBM shares closed down 13%, the biggest one-day drop since 2000. DoorDash Inc., American Express Co., KKR & Co Inc. and Blackstone Inc. all slumped by at least 6%. Shares of other companies name-checked in the article, including Uber Technologies Inc., Mastercard Inc., Visa Inc., Capital One Financial Corp. and Apollo Global Management Inc. all fell by 4% or more.
“The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that’s been relatively underexplored,” a preface to the article, which was published Sunday, said. “Hopefully, reading this leaves you more prepared for potential left tail risks as AI makes the economy increasingly weird.”
Let’s dive into the futuresque article.
Finally, please consider The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis by Citrini Research.
The Consequences of Abundant Intelligence
February 22nd, 2026June 30th, 2028The unemployment rate printed 10.2% this morning, a 0.3% upside surprise. The market sold off 2% on the number, bringing the cumulative drawdown in the S&P to 38% from its October 2026 highs.
Traders have grown numb. Six months ago, a print like this would have triggered a circuit breaker.
Two years. That’s all it took to get from “contained” and “sector-specific” to an economy that no longer resembles the one any of us grew up in. This quarter’s macro memo is our attempt to reconstruct the sequence – a post-mortem on the pre-crisis economy.
The euphoria was palpable. By October 2026, the S&P 500 flirted with 8000, the Nasdaq broke above 30k. The initial wave of layoffs due to human obsolescence began in early 2026, and they did exactly what layoffs are supposed to. Margins expanded, earnings beat, stocks rallied. Record-setting corporate profits were funneled right back into AI compute.
The headline numbers were still great. Nominal GDP repeatedly printed mid-to-high single-digit annualized growth. Productivity was booming. Real output per hour rose at rates not seen since the 1950s, driven by AI agents that don’t sleep, take sick days or require health insurance.
When cracks began appearing in the consumer economy, economic pundits popularized the phrase “Ghost GDP“: output that shows up in the national accounts but never circulates through the real economy.
In every way AI was exceeding expectations, and the market was AI. The only problem…the economy was not.
AI capabilities improved, companies needed fewer workers, white collar layoffs increased, displaced workers spent less, margin pressure pushed firms to invest more in AI, AI capabilities improved…
It was a negative feedback loop with no natural brake. The human intelligence displacement spiral. White-collar workers saw their earnings power (and, rationally, their spending) structurally impaired. Their incomes were the bedrock of the $13 trillion mortgage market – forcing underwriters to reassess whether prime mortgages are still money good.
[Mish note: the author does not understand negative feedback look. Hardly anyone does.]
How It Started
In late 2025, agentic coding tools took a step function jump in capability.
A competent developer working with Claude Code or Codex could now replicate the core functionality of a mid-market SaaS product in weeks. Not perfectly or with every edge case handled, but well enough that the CIO reviewing a $500k annual renewal started asking the question “what if we just built this ourselves?”
It wasn’t until ServiceNow’s Q3 26 report that the mechanism of reflexivity became clearer.
SERVICENOW NET NEW ACV GROWTH DECELERATES TO 14% FROM 23%; ANNOUNCES 15% WORKFORCE REDUCTION AND ‘STRUCTURAL EFFICIENCY PROGRAM’; SHARES FALL 18% | Bloomberg, October 2026
SaaS wasn’t “dead”. There was still a cost-benefit-analysis to running and supporting in-house builds. But in-house was an option, and that factored into pricing negotiations.
What else were they supposed to do? Sit still and die slower? The companies most threatened by AI became AI’s most aggressive adopters.
This sounds obvious in hindsight, but it really wasn’t at the time (at least to me). The historical disruption model said incumbents resist new technology, they lose share to nimble entrants and die slowly. That’s what happened to Kodak, to Blockbuster, to BlackBerry. What happened in 2026 was different; the incumbents didn’t resist because they couldn’t afford to.
Agents went looking for faster and cheaper options than cards. Most settled on using stablecoins via Solana or Ethereum L2s, where settlement was near-instant and the transaction cost was measured in fractions of a penny.
MASTERCARD Q1 2027: NET REVENUES +6% Y/Y; PURCHASE VOLUME GROWTH SLOWS TO +3.4% Y/Y FROM +5.9% PRIOR QUARTER; MANAGEMENT NOTES “AGENT-LED PRICE OPTIMIZATION” AND “PRESSURE IN DISCRETIONARY CATEGORIES” | Bloomberg, April 29 2027
Mastercard’s Q1 2027 report was the point of no return. Agentic commerce went from being a product story to a plumbing story. MA dropped 9% the following day. Visa did too, but pared losses after analysts pointed out its stronger positioning in stablecoin infrastructure.
American Express (AXP US) was hit hardest; a combined headwind from white-collar workforce reductions gutting its customer base and agents routing around interchange gutting its revenue model. Synchrony (SYF US), Capital One (COF US) and Discover (DFS US) all fell more than 10% over the following weeks, as well.
Their moats were made of friction. And friction was going to zero.
AI has created new jobs. Prompt engineers. AI safety researchers. Infrastructure technicians. Humans are still in the loop, coordinating at the highest level or directing for taste. For every new role AI created, though, it rendered dozens obsolete. The new roles paid a fraction of what the old ones did.
U.S. JOLTS: JOB OPENINGS FALL BELOW 5.5M; UNEMPLOYED-TO-OPENINGS RATIO CLIMBS TO ~1.7, HIGHEST SINCE AUG 2020 | Bloomberg, Oct 2026
The hiring rate had been anemic all year, but October ‘26 JOLTS print provided some definitive data. Job openings fell below 5.5 million, a 15% decline YoY.
INDEED: POSTINGS FALL SHARPLY IN SOFTWARE, FINANCE, CONSULTING AS “PRODUCTIVITY INITIATIVES” SPREAD | Indeed Hiring Lab, Nov–Dec 2026
White-collar openings were collapsing while blue-collar openings remained relatively stable (construction, healthcare, trades). The churn was in the jobs that write memos (we are, somehow, still in business), approve budgets, and keep the middle layers of the economy lubricated. Real wage growth in both cohorts, however, had been negative for the majority of the year and kept declining.
AI got better and cheaper. Companies laid off workers, then used the savings to buy more AI capability, which let them lay off more workers. Displaced workers spent less. Companies that sell things to consumers sold fewer of them, weakened, and invested more in AI to protect margins. AI got better and cheaper.
A feedback loop with no natural brake. [That is correct usage]
The irony of this was that the AI infrastructure complex kept performing even as the economy it was disrupting began deteriorating. NVDA was still posting record revenues. TSM was still running at 95%+ utilization. The hyperscalers were still spending $150-200 billion per quarter on data center capex. Economies that were purely convex to this trend, like Taiwan and Korea, outperformed massively.
The Battle Against Time
The first negative feedback loop [incorrect use] was in the real economy: AI capability improves, payroll shrinks, spending softens, margins tighten, companies buy more capability, capability improves. Then it turned financial: income impairment hit mortgages, bank losses tightened credit, the wealth effect cracked, and the feedback loop sped up. And both of these have been exacerbated by an insufficient policy response from a government that seems, quite frankly, confused.
The system wasn’t designed for a crisis like this. The federal government’s revenue base is essentially a tax on human time. People work, firms pay them, the government takes a cut. Individual income and payroll taxes are the spine of receipts in normal years.
The output is still there. But it’s no longer routing through households on the way back to firms, which means it’s no longer routing through the IRS either. The circular flow is breaking, and the government is expected to step in to fix that.
The Intelligence Premium Unwind
For the entirety of modern economic history, human intelligence has been the scarce input. Capital was abundant (or at least, replicable). Natural resources were finite but substitutable. Technology improved slowly enough that humans could adapt. Intelligence, the ability to analyze, decide, create, persuade, and coordinate, was the thing that could not be replicated at scale.
Human intelligence derived its inherent premium from its scarcity. Every institution in our economy, from the labor market to the mortgage market to the tax code, was designed for a world in which that assumption held.
We are now experiencing the unwind of that premium. Machine intelligence is now a competent and rapidly improving substitute for human intelligence across a growing range of tasks. The financial system, optimized over decades for a world of scarce human minds, is repricing. That repricing is painful, disorderly, and far from complete.
This is the first time in history the most productive asset in the economy has produced fewer, not more, jobs. Nobody’s framework fits, because none were designed for a world where the scarce input became abundant. So we have to make new frameworks. Whether we build them in time is the only question that matters.
But you’re not reading this in June 2028. You’re reading it in February 2026.
The S&P is near all-time highs. The negative feedback loops [Again wrong] have not begun. We are certain some of these scenarios won’t materialize. We’re equally certain that machine intelligence will continue to accelerate. The premium on human intelligence will narrow.
As investors, we still have time to assess how much of our portfolios are built upon assumptions that won’t survive the decade. As a society, we still have time to be proactive.
The canary is still alive.
Negative Feedback Loops
Well that was an amazing look to say the least.
The author does not mean “negative feedback loop“.
Negative feedback loops are stabilizing forces. The author means a positive feedback loop with a hugely negative impact.
Feedback loops aside. Lisa Cook is correct that the Fed would be powerless to counteract such an event.
I will side with Waller “AI is a tool. It’s not going to replace us as human beings.”
Sure, there is going to be some implication. There always is with creative destruction.
The good news is we are supposed to find out by June 30th, 2028. I still expect to be blogging. I’ll let you know.
AI Will Take Every Job
Meanwhile, it seems like Elon Musk agrees with Citrini Research, at least regarding the job losses.
For discussion, please see Elon Musk Backs Universal High Income Fearing AI Will Take Every Job
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In reruns of “Food Factory”, automation replaced millions of assembly line workers. The development expanded the economy without the Fed. This was before the Fed’s arrogant dual mandate expansion in 2012. More recently, desktop publishing replaced millions of employees in multiple trades. It was celebrated sans Fed complaint. Followed by the e-commerce revolution, that was proclaimed to make brick and mortar stores obsolete. Greenspan’s Fed was instead focused on mortgage rate QE, which created the liquidity crisis recession, and actually caused millions of job losses. Hysterics over AI this time, is over redundant white collar middle management office workers that are on the chopping block. The highest concentrations are found in bloated, overpaid, in debt government.
We know how this goes, the Fed will print like mad and reduce rates to 0%. Buybacks will soar on the excess liquidity and the markets will also soar.
I don’t know if anyone at the Fed has mentioned this yet, but lower rates won’t “save jobs” or “increase hiring”. Lower rates will have precisely the opposite effect, providing capital to companies to make the investments into AI, effectively accelerating the pace of job losses. If the Fed truly wants ” maximum employment”, then they will hold rates exactly where they are, or even hike one or two times, over the next three years, to dampen the AI job loss transition.
I have heard rumors that the Fed may not be able to counter the seasons or gravity.
A positive feed-back loop in a negative direction would be better called a doom loop.
Positive feed-back loops are often called thermal run-aways in my profession. If you have one you might end up the topic of a Chemical Safety Board report. That is never a good thing.
AI can widen the gap between the earnings a tiny group of ultra-rish people and the rest. Now as good libertarians we shouldn’t mind the gap as long as developments benefit all, more or less. However, as the money gap increases, so does the power gap. My fear?
My fear would be to have my grandchildren wake up in a world where AI-empowered government and semi-government keeps track of everything you read, write, say, hear (cradle-to-grave texts fit on a USB stick), then later even see, detects any “misbehavior” including critizising those in power, military drones available everywhere that can kill any “terrorist” within seconds, basically a 1984++ with no way to even organize/start any resistance. Of course, your granddaughter may be taken to an island at the age of 14 – do not dare to protest.
And for the righteous right, your king Trump is supporting Palantir to help achieve what you just described. Congrats.
King Willem-Alexander for me, but still 🙂
Is Lisa Cook sending a message to president Trump that the faster AI develops and deploys the bigger problem with uneployment is going to fall on shoulders of the Administration? It is pretty clear that FED can’t solve problem of large structural unemployment with monetary tools it has in its toolbox.
How far is the Administration with abolishment of Department of Education? DoE is probably rather useless organization but who is going to co-ordinate retraining of several million people who lost their middle class jobs? President Trump through is executive orders? Or is he going to force them into newly opened factories ? How many jobs will newly built factories provide? I have lots of doubts because of high degree of automation, many factories will open in smelting and chemicals which do not need that many staff anyway. Neither gas fired powerplants do need much staff.
Why was 2008 crisis so severe? Because it hit lots of 20% top earners. These days top 20% earners represent 63% of US retail spending. AI is eventually going to replace many of them as they are way too expensive. AI is not going to replace plumbers and electricians.
For whom are all the plumbers and electricians going to work? Sheetrockers and bricklayers?
Excellent post here on the AI subject! Moore’s law being repeated and accelerated. As I say, buckle your seatbelts.
One more note, Mike I think you will agree. There are 2 parts to successful writing so that people actually want to read: 1) coming up with ideas to write about and 2) researching the ideas and actual writing. If 1) is given to AI, all is lost. If AI is used as described in 2), it could enhance writing and productivity.
The word that is missing is CREATIVITY. Intellect is NOT equal to Creativity!!!
even thought THAT SOME 12 or 20 PEOPLE (= FEDS directors)
could even try to drive/manage USA economy w. 350 mil people is beyond stupid!!
USSR tried this. we know result!
Mike, here’s a note from a long-time reader: whenever you are going to switch over to AI writing your posts instead, we WILL notice! So, please, just carry on and your readers will be happy, AI would lose the readers quickly!
USA 1 year running deficit is now $ 2.5 trln and rising from $2.2 /2.3 trln a few months ago
all you need to know.
buy gold,bitch11es
alx
=Cook Warns on Fed’s Ability to Counter AI-Driven Unemployment
no offense Mish. but if you are paying a single second of your time WHAT THAT WOMEN knows/think about AI. you are your /our wasting time!
======
she is DEI. dumb as bag as rocks.
SHE KNOWS NOTHING AGAIN NOTHING about AI and-or economy!
“Useless as tits on a boar hog”
alx
ps
stand corrected. she knows how to milk system and she was engaged in some scheme for housing loan!
So every black woman person is DEI.
= off topic
tried to watch laura ingramm/fox… jesus!
that vividly reminded me USSR times in end of 80x
economy is booming. her exact words and some bullshit gdp numbers
I checked debt. USA 1 year running deficit is now $ 2.5 trln
and rising from 2.2 /2.3 a few months ago
alx
Cook indirectly makes a case for infinite printing of the dollar as the only solution for displaced workers. Gold and silver turned up during Trumps deranged speech so investing in the mining companies remains a reasonable thing to do. Most investors continue to have no exposure to PM’s.
A little physical gold goes a long way when printing goes parabolic. Trump failed to mention that our debt is 122% of GDP and rising at an accelerating pace under his team of perverts and protectors.
The JOYS of human interaction is missing in these discussions. NO ONE imagines a world of fewer humans being served by BOTS. The joy we have here in Southern Europe are that I see people enjoying SUNSHINE, Have a Glass Of Vihno, having he best seafood on earth, and running into friends for a laugh (this is a “Village Life” we are living here).
Now imagining this BEING ERASED SUDDENLY with the human component replaced by a BOT that brings out my Wine and Lulas….the joy disappears. It would be the worst possible outcome.
And, the worst possible outcome is what they are planning. INSANE!
Actually Trump does imagine a world with far fewer humans.
His first term brought us the Covid hoax (1.6 million dead Americans).
Term two is looking far worse for our nation & species.
Precisely!!! Meaning all those investing in that kind of future will be fools going against human nature!
What if the bot is dressed up as a human?
Gates next pandemic that he warned we would notice will take out billions of people. He’s still preparing for it today via the WHO treaty, pathogen sharing annex, etc. He should have that finalized in May 2026 to solve the upcoming mass unemployment issues for the global regime.
If anyone believes that Gates and the other global regime leaders plan to allow useless humans to consume limited planetary resources, you’re a fool.
And if you actually believe Bill Gates is working on killing billions of people with pathogens/vaccines you’re a moron.
of course monetary policy can’t counter job losses in the millions. who even thought it could??
—-
I would argue that most people did, and many still do.
The prevailing assumption has long been that existing government institutions such as the Federal Reserve System can manage large scale employment shocks via interest rates, liquidity programs and fiscal coordination. That belief is exactly why, despite mounting evidence, so many remain confident that the system will self-correct.
Yet the evidence is accumulating against such a possibility and is in plain sight.
An increasing number of college graduates are struggling to find stable employment. Gig work is being displaced as autonomous vehicle platforms like Waymo expand. Major firms openly discuss reducing white collar headcount as they integrate AI systems. Humanoid robots are beginning to enter factories and potentially the military battlefield.
Each of these developments signals the same structural shift: over the next 10 to 20 years, AI and robotics are likely to perform a growing share of economically valuable labor, with ever increasing upward pressure on human unemployment.
What is the purpose of monetary policy? That primary purpose is to smooth economic fluctuations. It is not designed to counter a structural reallocation of labor where human input becomes progressively less necessary. Lowering interest rates does not create durable demand for workers if machines can perform the work more cheaply, more reliably, and at scale.
As I have argued before, the long run endpoint may be a post scarcity environment in which goods and services are produced at near zero marginal cost. In that world, money itself becomes less relevant because access to necessities is no longer constrained by production limits. The central issue, however, is not the endpoint. It is the transition.
As unemployment rises and fewer people can afford housing, food, and healthcare, society faces an either/or (binary) choice.
One path leads to violent reactionary resistance: a political backlash against AI, echoing themes common in science fiction and risking severe economic destruction. The other path is society acceptance and institutional adaptation: governments acknowledging persistent structural unemployment and implementing mechanisms such as universal basic income or direct public provisioning to maintain social stability.
This inevitable transition will likely be volatile. Large economic restructurings always generate conflict. Those who are employed will resent supporting a growing non-working population. Those displaced will view the system as having failed them. The friction between these groups could create tremendous tension.
Twenty years from now, the global order may look unrecognizable. It could resemble a highly automated equilibrium where material needs are met without traditional employment.
Or it could devolve into fragmentation and conflict, potentially sending us back to a world of hunting and gathering, as all modern structure is destroyed.
In other words, Lisa Cook is saying the problem is structural, and no amount of rate cuts will have any effect on hiring decisions when the competition is AI. Even more simply stated, rate cuts are useless, so the Fed should focus on inflation vs jobs.
I totally agree with Lisa Cook, as she warned the US central bank may not be able to counter rising unemployment driven by adoption of AI. Look at the past 2-3 Years of “True” Min. wage growth, due to simply bodies being needed. AI will instantly destroy many of these jobs. In fact, it has been in a test run for quite awhile now. Not uncommon to see the beginnings have entrenched themselves already.
AI, once it gets going and fully utilized, will be an epic game changer for Jobs imo. These Jobs are not job creating jobs either, but rather once human Job skill needed jobs, now gone forever, and many more behind them. What I don’t admire about this technology, is that it’s being used nefariously imo. I watched from the start of the movement, and then watched the wages (min but not by law) rise exponentially at the same time.
I am not saying it was a bad thing in terms of entry level workers jumping up to 40K per year overnight, while it was extremely unusual, but great for these folks and their Families. Who is going to tell the family with 2 Adults and 2 Kids that they just lost there 70K-80K combined jobs, to AI, and everybody saw it coming, and this was part of it perhaps? With no true skill set, to demand 40K jobs, this is going to sting hard! That could cause things to get real messy. “Follow the Money” as they say, and you will find the answers to all of this imo…
What will this do for the Low Income? For the Single Mom or Dad? For the Youth trying to get a start in the real world, with a job communicating with people, and handling money, responsibilities, timeliness etc. Where do all of these skill sets come from now? They were robbed along with incomes. How many cell phone planted faces do we already see? This will not spur a productivity boom, as the loss of jobs alone would offset any increase they may provide. “AI is a tool. It’s not going to replace us as human beings,” Waller said. “This is kind of an overstated thing.” Hmm… I honestly thought that this WAS the entire intent from the start, and still appears to be IMHO…
One thing clear from this article and the responses, as with all similar articles is the fear of the future that is radically different from the past and a gross inability to imagine economic or social systems different from the one we have now.
Most people seem unable to envision anything beyond a lifetime of labor, 30 to 50 years spent earning wages to pay bills, accumulate assets, and signal status. The assumption is that our current economic model must continue or society collapses. Technology may displace workers, but new industries will appear, as they always have, and the cycle goes on.
That old bargain was simple. Each generation expanded the workforce, produced more, consumed more, paid more taxes, and supported larger governments and longer retirements.
But that assumption is now under pressure from two forces: rising labor costs and rapidly advancing AI. If machines can perform both physical and cognitive work as well as, or better than, humans, then human labor is no longer the limiting factor in production. Machines do not retire. They do not demand wages, healthcare, or cost of living adjustments. They operate continuously.
In such a world, money will not be be necessary to allocate basic goods. Survival will not depend on employment. Housing, food, and material needs will be met without direct cost, freeing human time for art, learning, recreation, or nothing at all.
Many reject this not because it is impossible, but because they cannot imagine it. And that failure of imagination triggers much of the resistance to an AI-driven future.
sure, we can spend all day on the holodeck, playing chess with Data, beaming al lover the universe.
I agree that “ Fear of the Unknown” can be terrifying for some. AI Fear is the unknown of how far it will actually go. Built into this technology and its end goal, is as far as it can take itself. That is a tad fearful, and add into that, it’s all depends what the “Programmers” wish it to do in some cases. Other technologies are being looked at, to work along side AI. A powerful group of infrastructure run behemoths, without the need for supervision?
I don’t agree labor is needed for a lifetime, but many now don’t retire until they have to, need to, or simply get pushed out. They love the humans interaction, the sharing of their lives, and become more than simple co-workers. What’s AI going to be, other than AI? I think the assumption is more taxes, more money, and more government is what’s occurring. More assistance, care for, etc. Much More “Digital Control” too… New industries appear, but along side existing ones hopefully. These will be replacing any new industry, as it’s continued power will do all of that as time moves on. This could very well “Crush” the next expected cycle, and more and more ahead will fall as well perhaps?
What machines can’t do is be people. Human interaction cannot be replaced, long term. Humans can obviously work side by side with technology, but need wisdom and real life experience to truly meet the needs of the opposing party. It is what it is…
“Machines do not retire they do not demand wages, healthcare, or cost of living adjustments. They operate continuously.” Yes, and that’s a problem long term. Think jobs replaced forever, and how many of those can be replaced with new ones, and a similar skill set needed?
Money will always be needed. Maybe not Fiat, but Gold, Silver or the likes. Recall Tulip bulbs were once, as were other odd things, over the years. A form of currency to work for, and be achieved is special. Many things have been used, but hold in your hand money is the one repeat customer. Utopia is a myth, and working in silos would be prison like. I am not a nay sayer, but just can’t fathom it working out very well for many, and especially the lower class ironically enough…
While not entirely impossible, i am highly skeptical of the manner, and use of technology. When we don’t need to work, who works the Farms? Where do we find a Doctor if needed? Does this mean we do away with all school systems as AI can easily teach it all, and from home too. Self driving cars so not much needed to get around. Gas nope, electricity a Boatload but newer technology always coming etc. we shall see, and I will jump onboard, if it makes sense to do so!
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said on Monday evening that AI jobs displacement “may happen “faster than we can adjust to” and advised the government to begin working with business to devise policies that can address the fallout.
https://www.investors.com/news/ai-jobs-wipeout-us-government-policy-needed-jpmorgan-chase-dimon/
Ha ha ha! The FED will be powerless against the AI juggernaut! There will not be any need in the future for the FED when the AI takes over (or is chosen to lead by a dissatisfied populace) and the concept of money is retired to history.
How would Trump deal with life in a world where his money and power are meaningless? Would he suicide?
Just out on CNN
Dozens of FBI records apparently missing from Epstein files, including Trump accuser interviews
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/24/us/epstein-files-trump-accuser-missing-files-invs
Obstruction of justice by the DOJ? Destruction of evidence by the FBI? A coverup by congress.
Trump sycophants are a criminal lot aren’t they…
Just like their leader…
Sounds like a opportunity for government to introduce universal basic income
that’ll work this time. you’ll see. also, the shuttle will be landing anytime soon.
I mean you can have it one of two ways: AI does all of this magical stuff and no one has to work so UBI does work; or AI doesn’t do any of this so UBI never happens because this hype is stupid. I’ll let you guess which one is more realistic.
=basic math
lets say it is 1000$ per month. lets say 2/3 of ppl applied
it is about 200 mil people (incl old ones and kids)
it is $200 bil per month, or 2.5 $trln per year
double of current deficit!
alx
Your $1000 per month is way short even by today’s standard.
For 2026, the federal poverty level (FPL) for a single individual in the contiguous U.S. is $15,960 per year ($1,330 monthly), and for a family of four, it is $33,000 per year ($2,750 monthly).
If this metric isn’t at least doubled I predict millions will organize and destroy AI and the infrastructure that supports it.
actually , lets say they voted basic income.
most people WOULD stop working . WHAT FOR?
so prices would drop, lack of demand!
====
it would be same sh1it as in great depression .
all those people lost jobs, got poor, did not have money thus falling DEMAND!
Thanks for offering your opinion Mish. It’s very difficult teasing apart the hype from the reality. There are trillions of reasons (dollars) why people are hyping up AI.
I had to read this one and the comments twice before commenting.
It is pretty easy to “Project” ones perspective, fears or dreams into this open to interpretation debate on what AI is or isn’t.
Fears: It is pretty easy to conjure up a world of intelligent unemployed people displaced from their jobs by AI. Robots that take the place of housekeepers and all sorts of newly unemployed roaming the streets and countryside. Hungry ones at that!
Living dead on a large scale with the common man no longer having any usefulness to the corporate overlords.
Dreams: With a universal income, education and the arts could become a venue for survival and fulfillment. Heck, pianos might become common instruments in homes and average people enjoying the rich fulfillment of creativity through music.
Art and education as a priority to develop creativity and reward curiosity? Neural network growth contests?
😉
But of course I am projecting and rambling…
Got copper stocks? Got silver stocks? The electrical build out will have to be spectacular if our population is going to grow along with AI…
So far most of research reports come to conclusion that in majority of companies AI hasn’t increased productivity of labor or increased it just a bit. I have read few of them, the last one covered 6500 companies in several countries incl. USA, UK, Germany. AI is still in its infancy and it will need more time to develop and profitably deploy (this will be bigger issue). I would push 2028 to 2032 or so.
Who is going to suffer now will be college and university graduates as they have no competitive advantage against AI. Think of junior jobs like business analyst. Assistants too, replaced by AI assistant. On the other hand email didn’t kill DHL and UPS, they got bigger.
What is missing in those loops is AI=energy. Where will energy come from in 2028/2029? Will that put 1/4 of US manufacturing out of business because nat gas will get more expensive too? Next, there is no AI competition in the loops. Chinese are not far behind the US in AI development and their models are much cheaper. If AI Made in USA keeps top 20% of global market and Chinese models occupy bottom 80% then how many big, general US AI companies are going to survive? Three? That would mean huge credit and investment losses.
Where will the final punch come from? My guess is private equity. There are $3.5 trillion of assets which are financed at 8%p.a. up to 12%p.a. It is very hard to sell those overleveraged companies to strategic buyers – Chinese are not allowed to invest in USA and Europe, in some industries there are just few US/EU players and they don’t need to buy overdebted competitor and local investors don’t care about legacy industries. It is tough to place them on stock market for obvious reasons (they are losing money). One day PE investors will call their money back or PE funds will reach maturity date and if it is the time when some AI companies go bust and uneployment moves over certain threashold, then good luck.
Fed Reserve Gov Cook is not just warning about the effect of AI on the economy, but giving the Fed Reserve an excuse to RAISE rates or pop the AI bubble. AI could replace the Fed Reserve’s existence, and that’s an existential threat to the entire banking cartel.
This article from Cintrini is a good example of the problem with AI: A lot of people writing about it have no idea what the hell they’re talking about. We’ve yet to see the “record setting profits” or any real indication of use beyond what we already knew AI could do: Search things good.
“But it can diagnose c-” No, it can search a database of pictures and reference that when trying to pick out cancer in imaging.
“But what about accounting?” It can search through accounts, check that against data it’s trained on, and tell you what it thinks. It does not understand the numbers any better than a missile understands it’s job is to explode things. You still require human oversight to make sure the results don’t snarl into a bird’s nest of issues from one oversight that went unnoticed. It is a tool, not an employee.
“Why are they firing people then?! Gotcha!” This is the easiest question of them all: Our economy has been built out of paper mache since the pandemic, when the powers that be oh so wisely decided to print and distribute shitloads of cash to anyone and everyone to offset the real damage that the pandemic had done. Turns out, companies can’t just magically support an extra 10-15k employees they hired on with money they didn’t have to fix an employment collapse rooted in long standing bad habits. Pretending that AI is making these jobs – THAT DIDN’T HAVE ANY REASON TO EXIST – go away, is magical thinking in service of the end goal that we should never ever have to deal with our dumpster fire economy. I could end this post here, because this is the real problem. We screwed up in handling the pandemic and neither our government nor big companies want to pay the piper. Simple as.
Everything this article fantasizes, from SaaS being eliminated and crypto replacing credit cards, doesn’t exist in real life and people who understand software engineering or the backend of finance can just plainly tell you that. Is AI useful for coding? Sure! Is AI replacing all coding? No! A lot of what it puts out doesn’t like to work together with other systems, and needs tweaking in order to make a successful project with. As for crypto, it’s still stuck with the issue of how you use it in a remotely timely manner without paying expensive fees. You know, like you would with a credit card, but shittier overall.
It’s all smoke up asses all the way around in this monster of a bubble. Every AI utopian/dystopian promise always seems to be couched with phasing like, “it’s already happening!!!” Regardless of any facts suggesting otherwise. This is, of course, a way to drum up hype around AI even if the hype is negative. Because we all know the minute that hype dies out, our shambolic economy dies with it.
This is the main problem with AI and I will say it over and over again. AI is good at pretending to be smarter than it is, and that gets you morons thinking they can replace smart people with it. I assume this is why you keep seeing case after case of people going nuts and killing themselves or others after their chatbot says they’re a special smart pumpkin, not like the others! Anthropic can scream about how it’ll replace COBOL, but conveniently can’t tell you how that works in reality because who needs a plan for transitioning some of the world’s most critical systems? Not us!
Also, 10% unemployment? Please, America would burn to the ground. We already saw this during the pandemic, and that was in much calmer times with much lower unemployment. The elite have been taking a shit on average joes for over half a decade now, and the mood seems to be quite sour regardless of political party. Americans won’t be living in Hoover shanty cities this time because they’ve lived their whole lives experiencing a decent first world existence that they are right to expect as the norm.
People often forget that the guilded age of the 20s ended in a spate of violence where bosses were being dynamited and shot down by their own communities. Adding that to America’s current near pariah state would not be a good mixture. It is time for the elite to admit they screwed up with this economy and eat humble pie. Hopefully before it’s served cold.
Addendum, since it’s kind of unrelated:
Almost all problems in America can be chalked up to the aggressive avoidance of any kind of negative consequences for dumb actions. Not even the Soviets could have dreamed of living in the kind of denial where a country is creeping up on 40 trillion in debt but insists on dumping non-existent cash into bad oil, nonsensically designed naval ships, and a gestapo to get rid of the only people doing hard labor anymore.
It’s easy to blame the idiots in the stock markets and boardrooms, but I think the parent is more to blame than the child here. For the last few decades the American government has aggressively bankrolled even the dumbest of private ventures from the oligopoly. And if/when those ventures fail out? We just print out some more monopoly money and bail them out! I don’t want to hear about China weaponizing its economy when the situation at home is even more rotten. At least China’s implementation is getting results like sustainable autarkic energy, good infrastructure, and a rising standard of living. Meanwhile the exact inverse is happening across the Pacific where we award grants to people who build exploding cars because he may or may not have connections to a global pedophile cabal.
What you see here is a master class of “I’ll gladly pay you Wednesday” on an international level.
We may have reached Peak Stupid.
I don’t really agree with that either because we were just as dumb back in the 1920s last time the economy got swallowed by people running from their consequences. It’s just human nature to not want to pay debts if you can avoid them.
How many years ago did strategic think tanks begin anticipating the singularity? Surely, they prepared advice to instruct the regime to close borders and reduce immigration, as the moment nears.
TPTB probably prefer to limit the unemployed homeless within the borders, because it’s more distasteful to kill “their own” paupers than those across a border.
They anticipated the singularity. That’s not what’s happening.
AI is good enough to discourage young people from learning a trade, but not good enough to do the jobs reliably.
3 Generations from now, multiplication will only be taught at the graduate level, and we’ll all be dependent on thousands of randomly hallucinating AI systems.
This is the Stupidularity.
Yes. … Mike Judge is a visionary!
He ripped off Cyril Kornbuth’s story “The Marching Morons”… from back in the 50s.
Perhaps ICE will be the federal police to suppress the unemployed homeless and put them into FEMA camps.
I’m half serious, half dead serious. /s
They sure are building an awful lot of detention centers. 38 billion worth, in old warehouses and big box stores. Places where Americans used to go to get consumer goods.
Now they will do without those goods, because they are too expensive, and if they get salty about it, they get stuffed in the big box store permanently.
It has an eerie temporal rhyme to it.
Wasn’t Dawn Of The Dead set in a mall?
>> Places where Americans used to go to get consumer goods.
What shall I do
To fill the empty places
Where we used to talk?
How shall I
Complete The Wall?
…
– Donald Drumpf
> They sure are building an awful lot of detention centers. 38 billion worth
My cucktard 2A friends used to warn me about Obama building those. I should ask them about that. (But what would be the point? “It’s over, Johnny.”. People will continue supporting the uniparty league and voting their team.)
Seriously, what are they going to do with these new detention centers.
How could they ramp up the number of people being pulled off the street?
Are they holding the detainees longer?
Are they planning on expanding who they detain?
They’re gonna be like roach, motels, they check-in, but they don’t check out.
At the end of the day isn’t AI akin to a next generation Indian call center?
One thing for sure, Citrini Research doesn’t understand who holds mortgages. The banks won’t be taking any losses because after 2008 they don’t hold mortgages any more. Those are all packaged into bonds for investors OR held by the tax payer via Phony and Fraudie.
Having Visa/Mastercard collapse and die would be a net positive. Their 3% vigorish is a subtle but huge drain on local economies that no one talks about. 30+ years ago everyone paid cash for minor transactions so if you spent $20 at a farmers market and that farmer spent the 20 at a restaurant and the restaurant owner spent the 20 on a haircut the 20 remained worth 20 at each step of the way and the money remained in the local economy. But now if you all use credit cards each time there is a hidden 3% removed by Visa/Mastercard so that by the time the Barber gets the money its worth only 18.25 cents because of that drain. Debit cards only partially help because everyone is still charging 3% more to cover that credit card fee (few places give cash discount). This is why the rapid adoption of using cards everywhere instead of cash has made everyone poorer.
I’m with Mish. AI is our tool. Not our replacement.
It’s both. I use it at work as a software engineer. It’s like one or two junior engineers. They need close supervision, but they get the job done. But they are one or two just grads that I didn’t hire, costing me around $200 a month. In my case, AI is a tool that replaced one or two engineers. So much so that I wouldn’t recommend high schoolers to go study Computer Sciences. And the BS graduates should seek an MS or higher in some other field.
I don’t even ask it for code anymore. Too many subtle bugs that took forever to find, and the code part is fairly trivial compared to architecting how the thousands of classes and assets work together. I asked Claude to analyze my project, and it told me it has a limit of 30 or so files. My project has thousands of files.
It’s great for telling you how to do stuff, though, and that has the built in check of “ok I did this, and it didn’t work”. I also like to ask it “if I do it this way, how can it bite me in the ass”.
It makes me smarter. Tells me things I didn’t know and wouldn’t have gone looking up, and I find that very valuable.
What people are claiming it’s gonna do is a long, long ways from there though.
Not true. Claude wrote a multi-architecture C compiler that passes 99% of the gcc compiler torture test suite — in two weeks! It compiles a playable version of the game Doom. The best compiler writer (or even team) in the world could not write a compiler that hits both of those marks in two weeks. A professor ran the compiler through his code originality test software he specifically uses to detect AI code, and the generated compiler scored high for novelty.
Everything up until the above achievement was a Mechanical Turk. This new achievement, completed just this month, is the first flight at Kitty Hawk, a 120 foot flight in 1903. In 1905, the Wright brothers flew 24 miles, nonstop.
Sooo many people dismiss AI based on what they’ve seen and suggest the next great advances won’t come if ever, even though it’s gone from “niche” to “widespread” use within 10 years.
More people using it doesn’t change what it is.
It had dozens of compilers to study, and I seriously doubt that the compiler it generated has been rigorously tested. Ask it to build something that has never been made before which is what software engineers do, and it falls on its face pretty quick..
The best, most efficient group of expert compiler writers would have the exact same information the AI had, if they were handed this same task. Only a couple of compilers in the world can pass 99% of the GCC torture test suite after years, or even decades, of human development. The C compiler was written in Rust by Claude in two weeks. If you think this could be completed in two weeks by a human (team) with less bugs and deficiences than Claude AI, across three computer architectures, you are kidding yourself.
I actually read the code produced by AI. My boss finds it amusing, but, as I said, AI is like a junior engineer, with fresh memory of textbook solutions and no notion of what is the most appropriate solution. I’m far ahead of it, because I’ve for decades of experience. I don’t know and I don’t care who’ll be the experienced engineer driving it after I retire. It definitely will not be the junior engineer that AI replaced and wasn’t hired fresh out of college.
I asked chat gpt about some scenarios in Omaha 8 (poker game) after about 15 minutes of incorrect answers and flaws involving the basic rules of the game I gave up. Chat GPT is a lousy poker player.
Essentially every Silicon Valley executive has pencilled in layoffs at their companies in the near future.
That’s not new though. The model has always been to offshore to India Malaysia Ireland and Poland.
Correction, every Si Valey CEO will paper over their failure grow the business by cutting personnel with AI. That should do to guarantee their bonuses for a couple of years.
Trump is a much larger problem than AI. So is our National Debts. A highly educated Luddite, is still a Luddite.
I asked perplexity what jobs the “Internet” eliminated.
The internet has eliminated or drastically reduced several jobs by enabling instant access to information, digital distribution, and online services.
Key Jobs Disrupted
Encyclopedia salespeople: Door-to-door sellers of print sets like Britannica became obsolete as free online resources like Wikipedia took over.
Yellow Pages deliverers: Physical phone directories lost demand with search engines and online maps replacing lookups.
Music store employees: Digital downloads and streaming (e.g., Napster, Spotify) gutted retail sales of CDs and vinyl.
Travel agents: Booking sites like Expedia and Google Flights handled reservations, shrinking the need for human intermediaries.
Bank tellers: Online banking, ATMs, and apps reduced in-person transactions, though some roles evolved.
I then asked what jobs AI will eliminate:
Job Category Why Vulnerable Timeline
Customer service reps Chatbots handle inquiries 24/7 with no fatigue. Next 5 years
Bookkeepers/accountants AI processes data faster and error-free. By 2030
Factory/warehouse workers Robots with machine vision pick and sort autonomously. Ongoing now
Paralegals/data entry Tools like Harvey analyze docs at 90% accuracy. Next 2-10 years
Basic coders/copywriters Generative AI (e.g., GPT, DALL-E) outputs code/content rapidly. By 2035
I think the timeline is too slow, I think most of those jobs will be gone by end of next year. All delivery jobs are certain to be mostly gone by 2028. I also think most corporate functions will be automated too. Why do you need an HR team when AI can do most of the paperwork. Interviews? Just let AI ask the questions and test a candidates capability.
Accounting is toast.
Procurement is toast.
HR is toast.
Finance is toast.
Legal is toast.
Operations – Only people doing physical onsite work keep their jobs.
IT – Only a few people for hands on work.
Sales & Marketing – Only people that have a customer facing role survive for servicing old timers requiring a “human” touch.
Customer Service – Mostly toast.
And then there is Management – the most over paid of the group that exists to “manage” the army of people listed above. This gets reduced to nearly nothing since there is nothing to manage but AI.
I continue to shift my investment portfolio from anything tech to what they call “HALO” High Asset, Low Obsolescence. And since AI is going to rule the world, investing in the things AI needs to function: Electricity, Chips, Copper, Silver, Gold and some other secret sauce stuff (do your own research).
The profits will be amazing but those not prepared or re-aligned will be miserable.
I agree with your focus on the areas that will be more affected. But not on the extent of the effect. I liked you post though.
Most warehouses will be unaffected by AI or significant automation even in a decade. There is plenty more warehousing and logistics beyond Amazon.
HR, AI interviews it is already happening. And applications are already using AI. It is a vicious circle than doesn’t seem to benefit anybody. Good HR (if that isn’t an oxymoron) will be still required.
Legal. No way you will still require professionals to give professional and advice. But it certainly can eat away massively at the paralegal world.
….
I’m just glad I’m an experience professional in Structural Engineering. AI is helpful but it won’t replace us anytime soon.
Regarding HR – the Benefits section often has empathic-type duties, best done by humans.
It would be fun watching AI hire people.
If you’ve tested the job market in the last couple of years, you’d have already watched it.
Would it be like the Indians it replaces and give preference to AI candidates?
Don’t be too certain about a slow pace in warehouses. Did a job last year on a cold store under construction. Will hold 135,000 pallets in a structure over 100 feet tall. Fully automated setup so no fortlift drivers to load, rack or reload. Massive setup with a small office. Have seen similar structures going up for non cold store pallets so the economics must favour them.
And for pick packers there is more automation going in and that will take away many low skilled jobs.
I’m interested in the breakdown of the large at scale warehousings vs small. I’m not heavily involved in logistics so I can’t claim to know directly the small vs large facilities. But I believe there are vastly more small facilities than large ones.
I figure the modern and largest warehouse will me adopting automation rapidly if they haven’t already. For every large warehouse there are probably a hundred small warehouse or logistics workers.
I work in a small/medium design/manufacturing & construction firm. Neither my for or the larger firms we service which are heavily involved in logistics are about to automate their warehousing.
One of the industries I am involved in is food. My city of 5 million has two grocery warehouse that largely service the 65% of the state of 7million people. These are ripe for automation.
But before the grocery items get there they got through key logistical steps. And afterwards they go through at least one.
I work for big multinational brands and at the point of production there is plenty of automation. Think production lines of easter eggs and chocolate bars. But not particularly at the warehousing stage.
TLDR; CONCLUSION:
The big warehouses are the small but concentrated step in the logistics chain. They are ripe for automation before and afterwards less so.
Structural engineering will be impacted, like most engineering disciplines. You should see the tools that vendors are developing.
Did you ask perplexity what jobs AI would create?
If you paid attention to my original comment, you should already know the answer to that question. It’s in the last paragraph before the last sentence.
I’m glad somebody’s asking the important questions.
What do you consider to be a delivery job? No way the Amazon / FedEx driver or pizza driver etc is disappearing by 2028.
HR isn’t all toast. It will be reduced but can’t go to zero because you’ll always need some human interaction for complaints etc. Esp if they involve sensitive things (harassment) that could end up in lawsuits. Same with walking an employee to the exit when they are let go.
But yeah much of what you outlined will definitely get reduced to a fraction of what it once employed even though it won’t go to zero.
Incidentally Perplexity missed one of the biggest things the internet eliminated. Newpapers and Magazines. They’ve essentially disappeared.
Don’t be so sure about Fedex and UPS drivers gone. not all of them of course, there is always a residual need. Heck we still have horses and carriages in major cities as tourist attractions.
My gut is telling me that corporate office jobs will become the new “burger flipping” jobs paying $15/hr or so. I think all the jobs I listed, including lawyers, will have their wages go down not up over the next decade. I already know a ton of people using AI instead of actual lawyers for contracts, etc. but trial lawyers may still be in demand since you have to appear in court.
I’m just glad I got paid a nice six figure + salary for the past 20 years doing office work. I fear that the golden age of that is gone forever.
Then you have all the musicians, actors, and entertainment ecosystem vaporize with AI.
Don’t take my word for it, the stock market is always forward looking and just take a look at cyber security stocks, enterprise software stocks, logistics stocks, etc. Only the very big cash rich firms will survive. We’re watching it in real-time.
I agree with what you wrote. I’d also add large chunk of CRE will be obsolete. No office staff means no need for office blocks, no need for staff parking, no need for staff break rooms, no need for janitors to clean up staff toilets.
That also means all the retailers in the CBD that support those office blocks be they coffee shops, fast food shops and office workwear. And also companies that launder work clothes and supply anything like janitorial supplies.
Your analysis is only first-order. The decimation, nay annihilation of so many elements of the economy will similarly annihilate the wealth generated by the former “scarcity of human intelligence.” What will prop up the value of your investments? Will there be reinvention of the economic/monetary system? Will there be mass extermination of an unnecessary population? Please have at it, just saying we need to position ourselves in “good investments” leaves out some key predicates.
All of the dead industries you listed were dead long before AI came along, and are you really going to put an AI in charge of your banking? One hallucination can destroy you, and hallucinations are very very common.
Excellent post! But as I keep saying, money won’t be used in the future. Everything will be provided free of charge by the AI/Robot workforce. Your gold and other assets will be of no value in that future.
Robotization or robotics automation ai and other technologies are sure to be an economic bitch slap or pimp hand to the American working man and working women.
We already have too many workers not in the workforce anymore job losses are going to create KAOS AKA CHAOS!! Plus ai pollution and driving up our power bills shows that ai will F**k us all up and the fed is not going to do anything about it nor did I expect them to,!
When enough are unable to work to generate their income, UBI will arrive. What other option will there be to keep GDP growth positive? Diluting the dollar to functionally zero is the other option I can think of quickly.
Let’s remember that GDP is an iffy measure. I hope we start paying attention more to % of humans eating well, % of homes heated or cooled adequately, happiness, sqft living space, crime-free days, hours of play, days without bombs dropped or countries threatened… Let’s devise measures and targets we want to meet.
Nice comment! What a pleasant surprise…
Humanoid robot police forces will keep the rabble in their places. I expect we’ll all end up living like the prawns in district 9.
The wealthy, as they always have, will do their best not to let a single drop trickle down
I was watching an Italian movie the other day (“La Grazia”) and in a passing shot on a street in Italy there was a Boston Dynamics “Spot” model patrolling autonomously. I thought it was make-believe but just looked it up and apparently there are thousands of them in use around the world for various jobs including police patrols.
Hyundai owns that company now.
You can get them for under 10k. I’ve been tempted, but you can’t ride them.
Where will that pie in the sky money come from? Andrew Yang! ubi is a scheme that will destroy the value of our money if implemented
Marx and Engels may get the society they wanted. True communism not by desire but by necessity, generated and controlled by AI.