Fantasy of the Day: The U.S. Consumer is Holding Up Well

Please note  Consumers Keep Paying Higher Prices for Detergent, Toothpaste

Consumers continue to absorb higher prices for Pampers diapers and Tide detergent, boosting quarterly sales and profit at Procter & Gamble Co. PG as businesses and households battle elevated inflation.

The company raised prices by about 10% across its various brands in the March quarter from a year earlier. It was the second straight quarter with a 10% year-over-year increase as the global company passed along higher costs and widened its profit margins.

“The U.S. consumer is holding up well,” Chief Financial Officer Andre Schulten said on a Friday call with analysts. 

European customers, on the other hand, are trading more into private labels on the back of price increases, Mr. Schulten said. They represented a significant drag for P&G in the quarter and will continue to be a drag on the volume of products P&G sells.

But Is the U.S. Consumer is Holding Up Well?

On a nominal basis it appears so. On a real (inflation-adjusted basis) the story looks different. 

In 8 out of the last 10 months, consumer spending did not keep up with inflation.

Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Percent Change From Year Ago

In four out of the past 5 months, year-over-year retail sales were negative. In the two prior months, sales were barely positive.

And Existing Home Sales Resume Slide After a Big Bounce in February.

Slow Progress

Nonetheless, Fed governor Christopher Waller Chimed in on April 14 with his speech Two Tools for Two Problems

So far, tighter monetary policy and credit conditions are not doing much to restrain aggregate demand.

I interpret these data as indicating that we haven’t made much progress on our inflation goal, which leaves me at about the same place on the economic outlook that I was at the last FOMC meeting, and on the same path for monetary policy. Because financial conditions have not significantly tightened, the labor market continues to be strong and quite tight, and inflation is far above target, so monetary policy needs to be tightened further. How much further will depend on incoming data on inflation, the real economy, and the extent of tightening credit conditions.

Another implication from my outlook and the slow progress lately is that, as of now, monetary policy will need to remain tight for a substantial period of time, and longer than markets anticipate. 

There’s a solid vote for turning more screws. 

70 Percent of Americans are Financially Stressed, 58 Percent Live Paycheck to Paycheck

Dear Mr. Waller are you not aware 70 Percent of Americans are Financially Stressed, 58 Percent Live Paycheck to Paycheck

The US LEI Still Signals a Recession Over the Next 12 Months

Meanwhile, The US LEI Still Signals a Recession Over the Next 12 Months

Finally, please note The Sharpest Money Decline Since 1934

Somehow, I sense we are going to see a “lot of progress” all at once, and on many fronts. 

This post originated at MishTalk.Com

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