Please consider a Conversation With Renowned Short Seller Jim Chanos on Hedgeye TV.
The videocast is a bit over an hour long, but well well worth the time.
Topics
- An Explanation of His Investing Process
- China: Cyclical Recovery Pending or Secular Slowing?
- Chanos’ Top Short Ideas Right Now
- Tesla and Netflix
My Notes
- Chanos most often focuses on serious fundamental business model flaws. True fraud is rare.
- Lots of things fail for reasons that should be obvious, but somehow aren’t.
- Wall street has a long history of believing 2+2=5.
- China is still the biggest real estate bubble in history.
- No bubble or fraud is the same, but the fundamentals and parallels repeat.
- Similarities between Japan in 1980’s and China Today.
- At the 32 minute mark, Chanos discusses Tesla.
- Tesla remains one of Chanos’ biggest short positions
- Run the numbers on Tesla you get a stock market value of zero.
- The rest of the car industry, notably Porsche, is catching up on technology
- Tesla Model 3 demand Is plateauing
- Tesla gross margins not improving.
- Solar panel assets are really liabilities.
- Pro-forma accounting share-based comp hiding in plain sight – In general, not just Tesla
- Netflix has become what it once disrupted. It is now creating shows and that changes its business model dramatically. Netflix is a fraction of the digital disruption it once was.
Inquiring minds may also wish to consider Mish in the Arena with Hedgeye: Hiding Out in Gold and Treasuries
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
We have the 2nd most expensive market in history, storm clouds pointing to a recession (depression in my view). That being said, who knows if it wont go higher? Its a mad world, the Fed propping up the market and Trump wedding the market with an election coming up. I had a good laugh after reading this comment on the Luke Gromen blog.
“If stocks fall on a sustained basis, this trade war is over by the end of the month. We make a deal with the Chinese, we give them whatever they want, and we come home…”
What else can they come up with to prop it up for at least a year?
If they can get it from below 10k to almost 30k over 10 years then propping it up for another year isn’t unbelievable. I think they did recently mention a future plan was buying stocks themselves. Since a full on blow up would mean their demise then expect nothing short of insanity. You and I might end up on skid row but limo rides for these jerks will keep rolling.
All fine and dandy but the average person could easily become “renowned broke-ass” trying to fight the insanity. But whatever. I agree with what he says totally but who knows how long the printing press is going to prop this crap up and what if the Fed start buying stocks(or even more)? Be funny if even the Fed wouldn’t want to own this crap.
Tesla, Netflix, Facebook, Uber, Lyft, WeWork … the whole unicorn network is just a lot of hot air. Pets.com remakes
I just saw Tesla’s pickup truck. Ugliest thing I’ve ever seen. Looks like a military vehicle. It will be Musk’s equivalent of the Homer Simpson car.
Anybody knows Chanos’ investment return rate over the last 3,5,10,15,20 years?
Chanos was onto the Chinese debt problem before most of Wall Street took notice. Says a lot about his abilities.
There is no housing bubble and there will be no recession in the next 12 months https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2931&v=fLJsckdrl1g&feature=emb_logo