The Fed issued a short statement. But its forecast is for higher inflation. 
FOMC Statement
Press Release: The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:
The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.
Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.
Central Tendencies
- Fed Funds Rate 2026: 3.6–4.1 percent up from 3.1–3.6
- Fed Funds Rate 2027: 3.1–3.9 percent up from 2.9–3.6
- PCE Inflation 2026: 3.5–3.7 percent up from 2.6–3.1
- PCE Inflation 2027: 2.2–2.5 percent up from 2.0–2.3
- PCE Core Inflation 2026: 3.2–3.5 percent up from 2.5–2.8
- PCE Core Inflation 2027: 2.3–2.6 percent up from 2.0–2.4
More Hikes
The central tendency is a half-point higher on the low and top end from the March forecast.
Powell did not vote on the projections
FOMC Press Conference
The Fed expects more inflation and so do I, barring a demand collapse due to recession.
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As expected.
Once again, we see a limit, a constraint, on Trump’s power. based on expectations of societal disapproval (even if that “society,” here, is one of elite bond vigilantes). So, the USA’s drift toward authoritarianism is not without its limiting frictions.
That is no guarantee of an absence of bizarre drama, whenever Trump is in the neighborhood. I think he cannot resist sooner or later insulting most any person or institution in his orbit. Unless, maybe, all those fast food hormones finally catch up to him.
While it’s my speculation I still strongly believe Walsh has an Inner Dove in wait for Trump. He’s just going to put on some level of facade that he has some hawkish spine. Give it time and he’ll largely become a jellyfish.
Well my tagline, “Do worry, Trump & Walrus will find a way to make things even worse.™” seems to be very presage. Just watched the Walrus flip and flap and flounder.
He’s going to appoint a task force (cuz he doesn’t know what he’s doing?).
He’s not going to provide guidance (cuz he doesn’t know what’s happening?).
He’s going to change the data the Fed looks at (cuz none of it matters now anyway?).
And a new higher normal for inflation is baked into the cake.
Do I need to say it?
Oh well better safe than sorry….
Got exit strategy?
Task forces are the way to “get things done” over a long time span. Unfortunately, what comes out is often much worse.
Kevin Warsh Wants the Fed to Stop Explaining Everything
For decades, the central bank believed talking openly made its policy work better. Its new chairman believes the opposite—and his first meeting Wednesday is where he starts to prove it. Warsh boiled down his advice for the Federal Reserve before an audience of investors last year. “Stop talking so much,” he said. “More thinking, less talking.”(wsj)
Because the economy thrives on surprises??
Listening to Warsh talk at the press conference, he is out of his depth for this job. I expect his tenure to go badly.
Only the best (ass-kissers)!
He reminds me of academics who make a career of being “expert witnesses” in court.
I thought Warsh did fabulous
We’ll see what unfolds over the years. You could be right. Personally, I would never give this guy a management position. He appears to be the exact opposite of pragmatic. He’s struck me as only being pragmatic in the politician sense, not in the well-grounded with deep knowledge sense. Throughout my very successful career as a pragmatist, I saw a lot of people come through thinking they had “solved everything” only to fall flat on their face. They all had the same vibe as Warsh. He strikes me as a “true believer”.
About me: When I asked Gemini AI, “based on information found around the internat, can you give me an impression of <my name>? What are his strengths and weaknesses?”. I get back sentences containing “pioneer”, ” expert”, and “strong collaboration across disciplines”. I had a highly visible position, that was *not* political.
trump only surrounds himself with boot lickers. I am afraid walsh is another one.
Me too. Love his commitment to real time data vs using stale data that is perpetually revised.
PS I agree with Warsh in principle on lowering the Fed balace sheet, throttling the Fed’s forward communication, and improving data analysis. I just have a feeling he’s going to fumble on the run to the end-zone.
He looked more of a politician than JPOW to me but we’ll see what the next 6 months yield (pun intended). He gets points for wanting to shake things up but if the shaking turns into an earthquake, god help us all.