Over the last 12 months, the CPI increased 4.2 percent the most since April 2023.
The BLS reports the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.6 percent in April.
Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 4.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The BLS rounds to 1 decimal point. I show 2 decimal places
CPI Month-Over-Month
- All Items: 0.47 percent
- All Items Excluding Food and Energy: 0.21 percent
- Food and Beverage: 0.15 percent
- Shelter: 0.32 percent
- Owners’ Equivalent Rent: 0.30
- Rent of Primary Residence: 0.36
- Medical Care Services: 0.53 percent
- Medical Care Commodities: -0.71 percent
- Energy: 3.88 percent
- Gasoline: 7.04 percent
- Food at Home: 0.06 percent
- Food Away from Home: 0.30
This is structurally broad based. Medical care services has more weight in the upcoming PCE report, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
CPI Month-Over-Month Energy, Gasoline, Utilities
Energy, Gasoline, Utilities and Fuel Month-Over-Month
- Energy: 3.88 percent
- Gasoline: 7.04 percent
- Utilities and Fuel: 0.63
These increases are on top of last month’s huge leaps.
The bright spot, looking ahead, is gasoline prices will take a big dive. But that will not help core inflation.
Five Measures of Inflation
Five Measures of Inflation Year-Over-Year
- CPI : 4.25 percent – Bottom April 2025 at 2.31 percent
- Core CPI: 2.85 percent – Bottom February 2026 at 2.46 percent
- CPI Rent: 2.92 percent – Bottom March 2026 at 2.56 percent
- PCE: 3.77 percent – Bottom September 2024 at 2.26 percent
- Core PCE: 3.29 percent – Bottom April 2025 at 2.61 percent
PCE numbers are as of April 2026, CPI as of May 2026. The May PCE numbers are due June 25.
CPI and PCE Year-Over-Year Percent Change
3.8 percent is the highest year-over-year inflation since 4.9 percent in April of 2023.
CPI Year-Over-Year Percent Change Major Categories
Small Price to Pay
This is a small price to pay if you focus on the mission.
Q: What’s the mission?
A: Our mission is to return the strait to where it was before we started this war.
The mission is going spectacularly because Iran has no cards.
Truth Social: The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate! President DONALD J. TRUMP
I’m sure glad for that. Imagine if Iran had cards.
Baptism of Fire Coming Up
This CPI report was just in time for Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair on June 17.
Trump expects Warsh to deliver a rate cut. I believe the Fed bias will be shift to tighten from neutral.
Warsh’s first press conference rates to be a real hoot.
Related Posts
May 13, 2026: Producer Price Index PPI Surges 1.4 Percent in April, Fed Behind the Curve?
The PPI numbers exceeded the highest estimate of every economist surveyed.
June 9, 2026: Small Business Hiring Plans Are the Lowest in Six Years
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declines again.
Key Findings
- The Employment Index remained essentially flat in May, registering 100.3 in May after measuring 100.4 in April. This is the third consecutive month in which the Index has declined. The current reading is below the 2025 average of 101.2 but slightly above the historical average of 100.0.
- In May, job openings and hiring plans fell notably to the lowest levels in six years. Twenty-nine percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down 5 points from April and marking the lowest level since May 2020.
- A seasonally adjusted net 9% of owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down 4 points from April, also marking the lowest level since May 2020.
- In May, reports of both actual and planned price increases rose significantly. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 6 points from April to a net 36% (seasonally adjusted), marking the highest reading since March 2023. A net 34% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, up 7 points from April and marking the highest reading since July 2022.
- Eighteen percent of business owners cited inflation as their single most important business problem,up 2 points from April and marking the highest reading since December 2024. Inflation ranks as the second top problem.
In the final analysis, Trump is inviting hyperinflation.
Why are interest rates the only tool used to combat inflation? Interest rates go up and banks profit from that. Why wouldn’t corporate tax and high rate personal taxes go up instead? You want to take money out of the system to cool inflation so raise taxes instead of interest rates until inflation gets under control. That takes money out of the system as well but instead of the banks getting richer perhaps the federal deficit might go down or at least go up at a slower rate.
The fed cannot tax. It would have pass congress and be signed by taco. Rinos in power won’t do it.
Countries will find alternatives to Middle East oil, the longer the Strait of Hormuz stays mostly closed.
it’s like when you work for a company, go on vacation and the company discovers that it really can get by without your services.
The US is wasting time and resources in overseas conflicts, National security should be built on domestic strength, specifically by securing our power grid and reducing global oil dependence. We have the technology, tools, solar, wind, advanced battery storage, nuclear power to make this happen.
We have the wrong people in place to make this happen.
China leaders are mostly engineers and scientists, American leaders are mostly lawyers. Does that give anyone a clue as to why we are falling behind in every respect to China?
We allow ourselves to be ruled by the stupid.
Vote differently? 😁
Anyone who believe Persian Gulf energy and related products are not that big a deal and can quickly and easily replaced should be glad – because there’s not going to be any “deal” in 2026.
Over 100 days in and price of oil still rising…,when will these alternative sources be found so we can get some relief at the gas pump.
Who is this “we” you refer to?
There is a price to be paid for world security. If the Iranian Regime didn’t kowtow to its radical religion, the world would be a calmer and better place and we wouldn’t have to be kicking the crap out of the Iranian Regime right now.
Methinks you are referring to Israel and its insane religion that attacks all of its neighbors.
Wipe off your hands and Get a grip!
I keep telling you not to post comments because they are all so dumb!
Israel is only defending itself from crazed terrorists.
According to Trump this morning–he loves the inflation number because we stole millions of barrels of oil from Iran that they didn’t know anything about until he told about it this morning….
Q: Are you concerned about the latest inflation numbers that came out this morning?
TRUMP: No, I love it. I love the inflation. You know why? Because as soon as this war is over — do you know we’ve been taking out millions of barrels of oil? You know who doesn’t know? Iran until right now.
Trump only said that we have been escorting oil laden ships through the Starit.
There are other countries in the Persian Gulf that produce oil! D’oh.
More LOSING for Iran! Anyone ready to issue a mea culpa? 🤣
Ziohedge? I don’t usually disbelieve something just because of the source, but in this case it’s the source plus the lack of detail. What percentage of those ships were Iranian? And what percentage paid Iran a fee for passage? Prior to Iran being attacked by the Axis of Evil, there were ~ 110 tankers transiting the Strait every day. Anyway you cut it, it’s down by 95%.
Go find a better article if you don’t like mine.
This is why past Presidents ran away from the problem of the Iranian Regime.
They didn’t want to face all the whinny ankle biters constantly complaining about the higher costs that war inevitably brings.
It’s sad how many are willing to pull the wool over their eyes about the dangers the Iranian Regime presented to the stability of the Middle East and potentially the world.
Thankfully, Trump and Netanyahu chose to take the action necessary, regardless of the economic or political cost.
Whinny Anklebiter sounds like an obscure suffragette and/or prohabitionist.
And now I can’t stop giggling.
Whinnying Anklebiter to place in the fifth at Belmont.
This has to be a joke.
That sucking sound and POP! Is the sound of JoJo pulling his/her/binary head out of Trumps ass…
The inflation is “transitory”
We love the inflation!
Haha powell and warsh are gonna be buddies real soon. They both are gonna have trump bitching at them in common.
Whatever happens in the Strait it won’t save our as*. Our goose is cooked IMHO by too much global refining being taken out. This is why refining margins (aka “crack spreads”) keep taking out new highs.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/_S_C1_RBZ7_CLZ7/interactive-chart
As I’ve said before and you will see: We don’t have the excess capacity for making up Global Outages. “Global oil refining nameplate capacity stands at roughly 103.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) across more than 650 operational facilities worldwide. However, actual operational throughput has been throttled to roughly 82 to 84 mb/d due to recent geopolitical disruptions and targeted run cuts in the Middle East and Russia
Will Dumb Donald cut back fuel exports (by tariffs or fiat) as we go through 20-Days/Inventory (likely next month)?”
Since it won’t rebalance soon if we don’t get proactive on exports rationing by price could get quite painful. Global refining and slow rebalancing will make fuel (potentially – but I think so) more painful than oil. And painful to the mkts too.
He’s been forestalling needed demand destruction by draining the strategic reserves.
“The bright spot, looking ahead, is gasoline prices will take a big dive.”
Why???
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-strikes-apache/
Today Trump said:
“You know what I really love? I love the inflation. You know why? Because as soon as this war is over, you know, I can say it now, something you didn’t know. You know, we’ve been taking out millions of barrels of oil, nobody knows it. You know who doesn’t know about it? Iran, until right now we took out the other night 22 ships late at night with no lights because they don’t have any radar because we blasted the crap out of it. We took out, that’s why oil is $85 a barrel.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/10/trump-inflation-cpi-iran-oil.html
With this single statement Trump just handed the Democrats the script for each and every campaign ad for this fall’s midterms.
Also, who the fuck believes his ridiculous assertions about Iran’s radar? If true, how the fuck did Iran detect, let alone target and shoot down, an Apache helicopter?
The Republicans are toast this fall.
I sure hope your right but we got some extreme gerrymandering. Just think how dialed in it can be when ai draws the maps with the voter info the states turned over to trump.
Then you also have conservative media telling its listeners its us verses the dems to save america every day. It will be hard for a bunch to cross over no matter how bad things get.
Uh-huh. You haven’t been paying any real attention through the Trump Presidencies, have you?
Not just this fall. Trump is leading them into another forty years wondering in the wilderness. The only good thing he has done his entire life.
Reading that statement knocked 3 points off my IQ, and my left eye isn’t tracking with the right anymore.
I think we may have discovered the very source of stupid in the universe, and it’s poisoning us all.
Trump’s mental capacity is seriously diminished from even a couple years ago. Robert Barnes says he’s continually confabulating. He’s not just bullshitting like Trump of old. He believes things that aren’t true and disbelieves things that are true. And what he believes can change within minutes.
Mish, this Iran/Inflation excursion reminds me of an old Monty Python “Meaning of Life” scene with John Cleese as the General – TODAY WE ARE GOING TO GO MARCHING UP AND DOWN THE SQUARE! That is, unless any of you has got anything better to do?”. The news cycle and negotiations feel pointless. I’m curious how much demand destruction we’ve already experienced in the energy markets? .
Does it make any sense that crude oil prices are going down?
Of course not, because in effect we are living in the “Matrix”.
If it makes no sense whatsover to you, you might want to think about why that is instead of living in the Matrix, lol.
I think I was right and now I’m pretty sure I am. Strategic move against China first and foremost. China plays real good chess, so I see all the ways this can (and may) play out.
This is another “just before Covid” pivotal moment, guys!
We all have a “fight or flight” moment, but pay attention to your surroundings if you are in survival mode. It might make a difference in how you view world trade, actually. It’s actually pretty deep. It does have a “twist” though…
The chess game goes on, lol. Those who play good chess may feel the same about this moment.
I’m guessing it’s a reaction to Trump stating they snuck 22 oil tankers through the strait without Iran knowing.
Trump, speaking with reporters in the Oval Office, also predicted that inflation is “going to come down like a rock” after the United States’ war against Iram is over.
The president linked that prediction to a confusing statement about the U.S. “taking” oil and ships.
The president’s brain is lumpy vanilla pudding.
its coming https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Countdown-to-a-Major-Oil-Price-Surge-Has-Begun.html
I’d like to hear PapaDave’s thoughts on this. I haven’t seen any of his posts lately anyway.
Because he probably got caught in a squeeze. He was betting that oil prices went up when they did the opposite! Big losses! 🤣
Apologies, see my comment just a few minutes ago. Yes, I see what the next post is and I do appreciate that you noticed, you have my e-mail I’m sure.
Trump is claiming today that oil is going down because of his secret mission of guiding oil takes out of Hormuz.
Trump ecplains why oil has been going down:
https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/39210
This might explain Trump’s eradicate statements in this post on May 29th:
https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/38872
“Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of “heading home!” Say HELLO to your wives, husbands, parents, and families from me, your favorite President!”
Maybe its all BS, a narrative spun to keep oil down while keeping the American exceptionalism myth going.
Regardless if real or not Trump just shot his last wad to keeping oil prices down – because Trump is blocking access into Hormuz (no ships in to sock and guide out) and we are reaching criticality low global supplies of oil throughout the world.
American exceptionalism myth:
U.S. compared with other countries (latest available data, 2024–2026)Metric
United States
Comparison countries
Where the U.S. ranks
Prison population rate (per 100k)
~531
Canada ~90, Germany ~69, Japan ~34, Norway ~54, China ~121
Highest among major developed countries; among the highest globally
Total prisoners
~1.8 million
China ~1.7m, Brazil ~840k, India ~570k
Largest total prison population in the world
Medical bankruptcies (annual)
~530,000 filings citing medical issues
Canada, Germany, UK, Japan: medical debt is not a major cause of bankruptcy due to universal coverage
Outlier among wealthy nations
People experiencing homelessness
~771,000 on a single night (2024)
Canada ~235k annually, Germany ~263k, UK ~350k, Japan ~4k
High in absolute numbers; elevated among rich countries
Life expectancy at birth
~77.5 years
Canada 82, Germany 81, Japan 84.5, Norway 83
Near the bottom among high-income OECD countries
Health spending per person
~$13,400
Canada ~$7,000, Germany ~$8,000, UK ~$6,000, Japan ~$5,000
Highest in the world
Infant mortality (per 1,000 births)
~5.4
Canada 4.3, Germany 3.2, Japan 1.8, Norway 1.7
Higher (worse) than most peer nations
Violent crime rate
Higher than most Western Europe and East Asia
Comparable to some Latin American countries on certain measures, but below the most violent countries globally
Mid-to-high among wealthy democracies
What stands out most
Bottom lineCompared with other wealthy democracies, the United States is an outlier in three major ways:
At the same time, the U.S. remains among the world’s richest countries, with high average incomes and enormous health-care spending — but those resources do not translate into top-tier social or health outcomes compared with many peer nations.
WAKE UP AMERICA. IT’S TIME TO CHANGE AMERICA FROM BEING CONTROLLED BY CORPORATIONS TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE PEOPLE. END UNFETTERED CAPITALISM.
Crude was $60/brl 3 months ago. There is no reason that OUR prices should go up because of what is happening in the Middle East.
It is time to untie our oil prices from the world price!
… and let the free market decide!
To whom it may concern…Yes, I was out of character. I know it goes against the unwritten rules. I’m really here for just banter, even though my questions appear philosophical. That’s all. The person whose name I mentioned was giving contrarian advice back in 2022 (last dip) when I bought some BP and ENB (my own picks) based on your general advice, and your name came to my mind because of that. It was just friendly banter, that’s all. Apologies. DJ
P.S. thanks to whoever noticed. I’m having a good time, actually 🙂 Amongst old friends and all that.
In the real World — Food and Fuel costs are way higher–While the Government just blunders.
So Worry and You won’t be Happy—- As things are probably going to get worse.
Well…well…well…. who coined the phrase below?
“It’s Trump turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up!”
and guess where we are….but as bad as things are now, they will get worse…guaranteed.
The CNBC talking heads were suggesting the Fed move from a fixed 2% inflation target to a “floating” target of 3 to 5 percent. Lol. 3 to 5 percent? WTF?
And by now for those of you with functioning brains, the whole “got exit strategy” should start crystalizing in your mind. Better hurry, those other places to go are starting to slam the door just like America is on everyone else.
Oh and I read somewhere that team republicans plan on cutting social security, medicare and medicaid after the midterms. I guess there is some good news for those that aren’t socialist leeches.
At least two people who hate facts read your post. Maybe they will be brave enough to tell you why they downvoted you. Doubt it!
Republicans won’t be cutting anything because they’ll be in the minor it in both houses. At least Trump won’t get his 50% increase in “defense”.
Team D is as beholden to the MIC as is Team R. They are just a little less performative.
That assumes Trump doesn’t rig elections. He’ll do something and then the cuts will come for the “sake” of the country. It’ll be pure hubris for the MAGA boomers that voted for this idiot. The cherry on the cake of bankrupt farmers, small businesses, and other people he hurt.
You reap what you sow.
https://fixvx.com/Acyn/status/2064741127249690894?s=20
“No I love it, I love the inflation!”
You couldn’t ask for better material if Democrats were writing his words for him. But hey, no stinking dirty immigrants right?
Think Trump voters will learn anything from this?
Does the pope poop in the woods?
Inflation is good. My savings earn more!
The Golden Age continues to get more golden.
Fits well with the trope that Trumpstien is ShitMidas, and he’s got his stubby little hands all over everything.
World War 3 is an afterthought at this point.
Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse. The Fed is caught now in the Bermuda Triangle of economic problems.
And this is before the full effect of the Hormuz crises feeds through.
Lets see how FED manages to spin this. Personally I am expecting a minimum of 50 basis point rise in FED & all other central bank rate by the end of year.
They’ll say “ex-food and energy, inflation is minimal”. In other words, inflation is “transitory”. No rate cut, but no need to raise. And in truth, raising rates won’t open the Strait of Hormuz.