Fed Interest Rate Hike in May Is Again Odds On Following Jobs Report
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13 Comments
Newest
1 year ago
Greetings from the AZ desert – chasing wildflower blooms.
Dead tired on my feet for 12 hours this post was scheduled
1 year ago
The US hegemony must be saved and will require interest rate increases. The dollar is under attack and inflation undermines it’s power. At this juncture, it is essential for foreign policy strength.
1 year ago
US10Y, at the bottom of the yield curve, cannot popup, because the German 10Y is well below the 3M @2.17%. Both 10Y are helping the banks.
US 10Y might cont to drop if Apr close < Mar low. When the Fed stop hiking US10 might rise on a seep trail high above the 1960’s backbone : 5.02%/4.66%. The bottom might shift to the middle, before settling on the 2Y.
1 year ago
Inflation is not ex. Last month we discovered a deadly banking system cancer. It was treated, game over. The Dow might drop for a sling shot to the top. // Money supply : Bank loans + Fed assets. Banks provide the most. But if they don’t the Fed have to fill their gap. Central banks fight diminishing banks loans with higher assets. China misbehave to cover their Eurodollar problems. Druggie charged rent, negative rates, to force banks to lend. If the banking systems cancer persist the ECB might fight it with more printing. Capish ? If the system control with negative feedback loop fail, Madam ECB will have to decide : hyperinflation, or game over : raise your hands and drop the weapon.
1 year ago
Looking positive for another nice SS boost this year!
1 year ago
minus higher medicare insurance and other deductions
1 year ago
A quarter point increase in May? Count on it.
1 year ago
Inflation will absolutely weaken once the economic politburo unveils its new calculus in determining the CPI.
1 year ago
As I have pointed out, the new CPI-X simply excludes all items that have increased in price.
Inflation issues resolved.
1 year ago
As long as the calculus is approved by highly regarded academic economists, some Nobel prize winners, who could possibly doubt it? /s
1 year ago
See the sharp drop in bank credit:
link to fred.stlouisfed.org
1 year ago
Nice jobs reports. I think jobs will average about 150-200K over the next several months, especially if 30YFRM stay in the lower half of 6% or even fall below 6% at some point. I do think that if the Fed raises the FFR to 5.25% in May suggests they think they’ve got a handle on any expected banking issues that may arise this year.
I for one expect core PCE & headline inflation to have troughed and SLOWLY zigzag higher in the coming months as oil prices rise, services inflation continues to raise wages, & housing continues to stabilize and slowly pick up sales volume.
1 year ago
No surprises there. Been saying this all along : The Fed will do QE whenever needed to support the bankster capitalist class, and will hike interest rates until the labor class is completely crushed.