Search
All
Economics
Politics

Don’t Miss a Post. Subscribe now.

Fed Interest Rate Hike in May Is Again Odds On Following Jobs Report

•

•

13 comments on Fed Interest Rate Hike in May Is Again Odds On Following Jobs Report

•

The above chart is courtesy of CME Fedwatch, highlights mine.

Rate hike odds jumped from 49.2 percent on Thursday to 71.2 percent on Friday.

The Jump was in reaction to a job report that was neither particularly hot or cold, and also inline with the consensus.

Nonfarm Jobs Rise In Line With Expectations In March, Hours Worked Dips

For discussion of the jobs report, please see Nonfarm Jobs Rise In Line With Expectations In March, Hours Worked Dips

The jobs report was not hugely strong but nor was it weak. It was in contrast to other jobs data that looks bleak.

The market perceives that as long as the payroll reports are reasonable, the Fed will keep hiking. 

It’s a good bet actually, unless and until inflation data weakens considerably.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

Thanks for Tuning In!

Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.

Mish

Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com

Thanks for Tuning In!

Mish

Mike Shedlock

Recommended Articles

Comments to this post are now closed.

13 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Greetings from the AZ desert – chasing wildflower blooms.
Dead tired on my feet for 12 hours this post was scheduled
0
0
Naphtali
Naphtali
3 years ago
The US hegemony must be saved and will require interest rate increases. The dollar is under attack and inflation undermines it’s power. At this juncture, it is essential for foreign policy strength.
0
0
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
US10Y, at the bottom of the yield curve, cannot popup, because the German 10Y is well below the 3M @2.17%. Both 10Y are helping the banks.
US 10Y might cont to drop if Apr close < Mar low. When the Fed stop hiking US10 might rise on a seep trail high above the 1960’s backbone : 5.02%/4.66%. The bottom might shift to the middle, before settling on the 2Y.
0
0
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Inflation is not ex. Last month we discovered a deadly banking system cancer. It was treated, game over. The Dow might drop for a sling shot to the top. // Money supply : Bank loans + Fed assets. Banks provide the most. But if they don’t the Fed have to fill their gap. Central banks fight diminishing banks loans with higher assets. China misbehave to cover their Eurodollar problems. Druggie charged rent, negative rates, to force banks to lend. If the banking systems cancer persist the ECB might fight it with more printing. Capish ? If the system control with negative feedback loop fail, Madam ECB will have to decide : hyperinflation, or game over : raise your hands and drop the weapon.
0
0
Jojo
Jojo
3 years ago
Looking positive for another nice SS boost this year!
0
0
8dots
8dots
3 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
minus higher medicare insurance and other deductions
0
0
Nuddernoitall
Nuddernoitall
3 years ago
A quarter point increase in May? Count on it.
0
0
hmk
hmk
3 years ago
Inflation will absolutely weaken once the economic politburo unveils its new calculus in determining the CPI.
0
0
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  hmk
As I have pointed out, the new CPI-X simply excludes all items that have increased in price.
Inflation issues resolved.
0
0
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
3 years ago
Reply to  hmk
As long as the calculus is approved by highly regarded academic economists, some Nobel prize winners, who could possibly doubt it? /s
0
0
Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
3 years ago
See the sharp drop in bank credit:
0
0
worleyeoe
worleyeoe
3 years ago
Nice jobs reports. I think jobs will average about 150-200K over the next several months, especially if 30YFRM stay in the lower half of 6% or even fall below 6% at some point. I do think that if the Fed raises the FFR to 5.25% in May suggests they think they’ve got a handle on any expected banking issues that may arise this year.
I for one expect core PCE & headline inflation to have troughed and SLOWLY zigzag higher in the coming months as oil prices rise, services inflation continues to raise wages, & housing continues to stabilize and slowly pick up sales volume.
0
0
whirlaway
whirlaway
3 years ago
No surprises there. Been saying this all along : The Fed will do QE whenever needed to support the bankster capitalist class, and will hike interest rates until the labor class is completely crushed.
0
0

Decorate Your Walls with Mish Fine Art Images

Click each image to view details or purchase in the store.

Stay Informed

Subscribe to MishTalk

You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.