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Poor Crop Estimates Aggravate Food Shortages, India Resorts to Protectionism

India Mulls Wheat Export Curbs

Bloomberg reports India Mulls Wheat Export Curbs in Latest Food Supply Squeeze

The South Asian nation experienced its hottest March on record, shriveling the wheat crop that the world was relying on to alleviate a global shortage. To safeguard domestic supplies, the government is considering limiting wheat exports, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. 

Curbing exports would be a hit to India’s ambition to cash in on the rally in global wheat prices after Russia’s war in Ukraine upended trade flows out of the critical Black Sea breadbasket region. Importing nations have looked to India for supplies, with top buyer Egypt recently approving the South Asian nation as an origin for wheat imports.

The move would also add to a wave of crop protectionism around the world as governments seek to protect their own food supply amid soaring prices and fears of shortages.

Wheat Futures 

Wheat futures courtesy of the Nasdaq.

Corn Futures 

Corn futures courtesy of the Nasdaq.

Soybean Futures 

Soybean futures courtesy of the Nasdaq.

Historic Fertilizer Crunch Threatens Food Security

Please note Historic Fertilizer Crunch Threatens Food Security

For the first time ever, farmers the world over — all at the same time — are testing the limits of how little chemical fertilizer they can apply without devastating their yields come harvest time. Early predictions are bleak.

In Brazil, the world’s biggest soybean producer, a 20% cut in potash use could bring a 14% drop in yields, according to industry consultancy MB Agro. In Costa Rica, a coffee cooperative representing 1,200 small producers sees output falling as much as 15% next year if the farmers miss even one-third of normal application. In West Africa, falling fertilizer use will shrink this year’s rice and corn harvest by a third, according to the International Fertilizer Development Center, a food security non-profit group.

Drastic Action Needed

This calls for drastic action and I know just what to do. 

Elizabeth Warren and President Biden need to call for an immediate end to food price gouging, triple down on the need for Build Back Better, and of course blast out more free money in shotgun fashion. 

For good measure, we need more sanctions on Russia including grains and fertilizer. 

According to FarmDoc, Russia is the world’s largest exporter of fertilizers, accounting for 23% of ammonia exports, 14% of urea exports, 10% of processed phosphate exports, and 21% of potash exports.

Since ammonia is produced from nitrogen in the air and hydrogen from natural gas, let’s add that to the list and ban 100% of Russia’s natural gas exports too.

Nothing can possibly go wrong with these policies.

Meanwhile, please note U.S. Senate Passes Antitrust Bill Targeting OPEC.

That both ridiculous and ironic for reasons explained.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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35 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Crenvy
Crenvy
4 years ago
Had to chuckle at the report mentioning Costa Rica. Lived there many years. There are many single coffee plantations in Brazil that exceed the entire production of coffee in Costa Rica. Since most of that is exported, the Ticos do not have to worry about going without their own delicious brew anyway.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
By the end of summer when crop yields become known things are going to get really ugly.
I suspect the Ukraine Wheat harvest will be non-existent and the Russian one will be reserved for ‘friends’ who didn’t sanction them.
The US doesn’t make enough surplus to feed everyone and it definitely can’t grow every kind of crop so shortages will be in more than just wheat. I imagine a lot of 3rd world unrest is coming up (think Arab springs everywhere) this fall and winter.
I hope the Ukraine was worth it – LOL
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
I hope less food leads to less humans.
Crenvy
Crenvy
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Let’s hope you’re one of the unfortunate.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Crenvy
It’s good to have hope.
goldguy
goldguy
4 years ago
Soon we will be masturbating our cats to feed our dogs… it’s going to be rough
prumbly
prumbly
4 years ago
Reply to  goldguy
Where are you from?
Crenvy
Crenvy
4 years ago
Reply to  goldguy
Perhaps bitten by spell check?
jivefive98
jivefive98
4 years ago
The answer to high prices is high prices. You all realize how much food (and oil and gasoline and bread and fruits and vegetables and …. ) gets wasted because it is artificially cheap and abundant?
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  jivefive98
My wife throws out so much food… I keep threatening to install a bar code scanner on the trash can.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
Speaking of throwing out. My waste disposal service has been ratcheting up almost quarter after quarter. Last year I weighed my bagged trash enough times to develop an aggregate average. I pay more, per pound, to have refuse taken away than I pay for filet mignon, rack of lamb, or wild Norwegian salmon. Next stop foie gras. Forget Russian caviar which must now be bootlegged. It’s a fixed charge per month and I just don’t generate enough trash to lower the average.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Urine is a pretty good fertilizer. All they have to do in India is pee into big pots, dilute it and then use it to help grow crops that they need.
This is why I am know as the problem solver.
thimk
thimk
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Actually the practical ancient romans had other uses for the golden liquid , The Romans also used urine to clean and whiten their teeth. That same
ammonia in urine, like it acted as a bleach for laundry, gave Romans a
pearly white smile. Of course a urine tax was enacted to collect revenues .
Farmers turn to old-fashioned manure as fertilizer prices soar: Interesting note – crops cannot do without their nitrogen
For all your realists out there go long manure .
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  thimk
“That same ammonia in urine, like it acted as a bleach for laundry, gave Romans a pearly white smile.”
I asusme you have photos to prove this point? White marble statues don’t count.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  thimk
I’ve been saving my urine lately for my garden.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 years ago
Reply to  thimk
Ah, the smell of the dairy and hog farms on humid summer mornings.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
The power of shít
Our excrement is a natural, renewable and sustainable resource – if only we can overcome our visceral disgust of it
Lina Zeldovich – is a journalist and author. Her work has appeared in The New York Times, Scientific American and Undark, among others. She is the author of The Other Dark Matter: The Science and Business of Turning Waste into Wealth and Health (2021).
21 APR 2022
Crenvy
Crenvy
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Only supplies nitrogen mostly, no potash or phosphorus, but, yeah it helps. Needs about 15:1 dilution.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Let Indians eat oil (that they buy at a discount from Russia). I’m hoping if we have excess crops that India is not on the list of countries that receive them. They need to pay a price for not supporting Russia sanctions.
whirlaway
whirlaway
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Well, 80% of the world’s population from 150+ countries, do not support sanctions on Russia. It is mostly US and Western Europe that do. And Western Europe is gonna get screwed. They will pay a price for supporting the sanctions.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
4 years ago
Reply to  whirlaway
The nominal cost will be far exceeded by the warm glow of righteous fanaticism.
PapaDave
PapaDave
4 years ago
Which is why you need to invest in fertilizer companies, oil and gas stocks, and all manner of commodity investments. The current double digit inflation in commodities will mean holding cash is guaranteed to lose you 10%+ per year. Invest in “what is in demand”. Following this scenario means I am “way up” even as most markets are correcting. Many thanks to this blog for pointing out this scenario over the last few years. Keep up the good work Mish.
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Wheat and corn prices had been trending upward since the mid-2020s. Oil, gas and fertilizer prices have been doing the same. This upward trend probably gave Putin the idea that Europe and the world cannot do without Russia’s commodity production and certainly emboldened him to make his move to take over Ukraine expecting that because of this dependence only symbolic sanctions would be put in place. He believed that economics always primes over politics in the West and that is true up to a point and then it switches.
prumbly
prumbly
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Putin tried to take over Ukraine? How do you know this? Did it come to you in a dream?
Reality check: no one tries to take over another country the size of Texas that has a population of 43 million and an army of 250,000 men, using a force of just 150,000 men. It’s one of the silliest propaganda narratives ever.
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
Since you are at the tail end of a trans-Antarctic hiking expedition and just now have come in wifi range of your mothership I can confirm that Putin invaded a country of 43 million with and army of 250,000 using his army of 150,000. The world wonders.
prumbly
prumbly
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
If you care to re-read your original post, you said Putin was trying to “take over” Ukraine. Clearly, to those who actually question the Ukrainian propaganda that gets instantly repeated in the western media as fact, this was not, and is not, the case.
The scariest thing about this entire episode is the sheer absurdity of the propaganda we are being fed, and that many people STILL swallow it. Every day we hear that the brave heroes of Ukraine have killed 15 million Russian soldiers, whereas the Russians have killed 5 million Ukrainian civilians and destroyed 7 million churches, schools and hospitals. Apparently no Ukrainian soldiers ever get killed nor do any of their military targets ever get hit. Do Russian missiles really only home-in on hospitals and schools? Now you would expect the Ukrainians to produce this type of propaganda BS, being the accomplished liars that they are, but why is our so-called independent news media parroting it verbatim and never doing any of their own reporting? It isn’t our war, it’s just a border dispute in an insignificant country a long way away.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
What is absurd is your embrace of Putin’s propaganda. You are either very low IQ or a paid Russian troll. Speaking of which:
——-
MAY 2, 2022
Britain says it’s uncovered Russian ‘troll factory’ to influence war in Ukraine
Britain says it’s uncovered Russian ‘troll factory’ to influence war in Ukraine
The operation is suspected to be connected to Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Kremlin-linked businessman behind the Internet Research Agency. File Photo by Sergei Ilnitsky/EPA
May 2 (UPI) — Britain said it has uncovered a new large-scale disinformation campaign launched by Russia targeting world leaders and Kremlin critics across various social media platforms.
The operation is believed to be run from an old St. Petersburg factory where paid employees attempt to manipulate public opinion concerning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by recruiting new supporters to spam the social media profiles of targets including British ministers and other world leaders, Britain’s foreign ministry said in a Sunday statement.
The ministry called the operation “a troll factory” that spreads lies on social media and in comment sections of popular websites with traces of the operation found across eight social media platforms, including TikTok and Twitter.
….
prumbly
prumbly
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
Pretty much all “Russian propaganda”, as you put it, is no longer available since the west has banned RT and other outlets. So we only have Ukrainian propaganda and ZERO independent reporting and analysis – which is why we are only fed silly stories about Putin suddenly and magically transforming into Hitler after 20 years in power and “wanting to rebuild the Russian Empire” (say what?).
Even the Pope can see through this nonsense.
And no, I’m not a “Russian troll”. Sad that you seem to believe that anyone who doesn’t believe the current idiotic and dangerous propaganda is an enemy.
I’m not a fan of Putin or of any war, including the current one. But I certainly don’t see Putin as an idiot or Hitler, or that he is living out world-domination fantasies. This was always a border dispute to protect the (Russian) people of Dombass (after the Ukrainians violated the 2014 Minsk agreements) and to send a message that Russia would not accept NATO expansion ever eastward “barking at Russia’s gate”, as the Pope put it. It was never about Russia “taking over” Ukraine.
prumbly
prumbly
4 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
It should be very clear that the US and Ukraine deliberately provoked Russia into this war, and now the US seems to be deliberately prodding Russia towards a nuclear war. It’s almost as if those in power have a death wish. What’s behind it? Sheer hatred mixed with stupidity? I don’t know, but it seems to me likely that if you deliberately back Putin into a corner you are likely to see some very bright flashes in what remains of your future. The Russians have voiced this several times. Odd that no one wants to listen when it would be very much in heir own interest to do so.
PapaDave
PapaDave
4 years ago
Reply to  prumbly

Wow! Lol!

Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
YOU will see the bright lights. I will be in my bomb shelter, preparing to come out afterwards and restart civilization when the geiger counter stops beeping.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
Shows how stupid Putin is.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
So he’s just murdering thousands of people because they won’t do as he tells them. Doesn’t sound so bad when you put it like that.
Naphtali
Naphtali
4 years ago
At least imbecility is still in good supply for continued support of governmental actions.

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