“Thank God you’re building the ballroom,” says rep. Joe Mitchell.
Joe Mitchell: “Thank God you’re building the ballroom. Thank God you’re getting rid of those awful bike lanes. We don’t ride bicycles in Iowa.”
Please note Iowa has extensive cycling infrastructure including bike lanes and trails, plus RAGBRAI, the world’s largest multi-day bicycle tour which has crossed the state annually since 1973 with thousands of riders.
Are Iowa farmers really concerned about the ballroom?
Mitchell Is Toast
That’s all I needed to see to kiss IA-02 Mitchell goodbye.
Anyone praising the ballroom deserves to lose. And so does anyone trashing bicycles in a huge bicycle state.
Let’s take a look at the rest of Iowa.
Split Ticket Iowa
- IA 01: 85 percent Democrat Flip
- IA 02: 66 percent Democrat Flip
- IA 03: 85 percent Democrat Flip
- IA 04: Safe Republican
That’s +3 for Democrats.
Iowa Senate
- Split Ticket: 50-50 Tossup
- Nate Silver Deluxe: 60.4 percent Democrat
- Nate Silver Classic: 57.3 percent Democrat
- Nate Silver Lite: 59.6 percent Democrat
- Kalshi: 58 percent Republican
- Polymarket: 57 percent Republican
Iowa Governor
- But Nate Silver Deluxe: 93.3 percent Democrat
- But Nate Silver Classic: 91.9 percent Democrat
- But Nate Silver Lite: 93.0 percent Democrat
- Kalshi: 86 percent Democrat
- Polymarket: 89 percent Democrat
Iowa Senate Oddball
It will take a lot of split ticket voting to see the Governor’s office to go strongly Democrat and the Senate to go reasonably strong the other way.
I am unwilling to buck the betting markets by that much. I like Split Ticket’s tossup call.
Decision Desk Split Ticket Voting
Cook Political
The Cook Political Report moved Iowa’s U.S. Senate race from “lean Republican” to “toss up” and the governor’s race from “toss up” to “lean Democrat” in August.
In October, Cook pollsters also shifted the 1st Congressional District from “toss up” to “lean Democrat.”
Senate Polls
Radical House Effects
It is difficult to get a Democrat 60 percent chance of winning out of that. But Silver does.
The only way to do so is very strong House Effects.
Once again, Silver should show us what he does with house effects but he doesn’t. This one is so bad that one has to wonder what he is doing elsewhere.
What the Hell Is Nate Silver Doing with His House Effects?
On October 19, 2026 I asked What the Hell Is Nate Silver Doing with His House Effects?
Whatever it is, he should explain.
Silver does not explain nor does he answer emails.
All things considered, I side with Split Ticket that the Iowa Senate race is a tossup.
One can also arrive at tossup by taking an average of the betting markets and averaging that result with an average of Nate Silver’s models.
Will Kansas and Iowa Go the Same Direction?
My seat-of-the-pants idea is Kansas is a bit more likely than Iowa to flip (say 55 Kansas and 50 Iowa).
The betting markets do not agree, so this is a Mish audible. We will see.
For discussion, please see If the Polls Are Correct, Democrats Will Win the Kansas Senate Race
But with two near 50-50 flips any outcome is statistically equal.
Related Posts
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Likely voters favored Democratic candidates over Republicans by 11 percentage points in New York Times/Siena poll.
October 21, 2026: Cook Political Reports Democrats Lead Senate Races in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa
We are nearing the “stick a fork in it” stage.
October 22, 2026: Ramaswamy’s Pedophile-Defending Ad in Ohio May Be the End of His Political Career
Even Ohio’s Republican Governor Blasts Ramaswamy.
October 23, 2026: Department of Justice Moves to Block Alaska Certification if Republican Loses
In a laughable lawsuit, Trump’s DOJ makes fools of themselves again.
I used to think that the democrats were more likely to participate in various issues of malefeasance. However, there is no question that trump is responsible for recent and continuing episodes of misbehavior while using various government resources at his disposal.