Cook Political Reports Democrats Lead Senate Races in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa

We are nearing the “stick a fork in it” stage.

The Battleground Project

Are +6 in Ohio and +5 in Texas “narrow” leads? Not in my book, but +2 in Iowa qualifies.

Cook political does not like to get anything wrong, so they maintain tossup calls longer than most others.

Please consider New CPR Battleground Polls: Dem Senate Candidates Narrowly Lead in OH, TX, IA
[Emphasis Cook Political except where noted]

Trump Is a Bigger Drag on Republicans Than the Democratic Party Is on Democrats

A trio of new polls conducted as part of The Cook Political Report’s Battleground Project found Democrat Josh Turek ahead of Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson 46% to 44% in Iowa; former Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Republican Sen. Jon Husted 49% to 43% in Ohio; and former state Rep. James Talarico besting Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 49% to 44% in Texas.

The polls, which were conducted for The Cook Political Report Oct. 9-13 by Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group, also showed Democratic candidates leading in two of the three governors’ races in these states, each of which President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024.

In Iowa, Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by 11 points (54% to 43%). In Ohio, Democrat Amy Acton is ahead of Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by five points (49% to 44%). In Texas, incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott is leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa by just two points (48% to 46%).

Democratic Candidates Are More Trusted on Voters’ Top Concerns

In all three states, the Democratic candidates are more trusted than their Republican opponents to handle inflation, corruption and lowering the cost of energy and gas prices. Republicans still hold an advantage on taxes and immigration, but those issues have become less salient to voters in a cycle dominated by day-to-day cost-of-living concerns.

For example, in Texas, Talarico leads Paxton on the three issues that about nine-in-ten Texans rate as important or very important to them: corruption (Talarico leads by +6), inflation (+4) and the economy overall (+3). In comparison, 61% of Texas voters call immigration and the border — the rare issue that voters say they trust Paxton more to handle — as important or very important to their vote.

“Republicans have spent years trying to make ‘Democrats will raise your taxes’ an automatic fear,” said Democratic pollster Lindsay Vermeyen of New River Strategies. “But the fundamental problem for Republicans is that voters see a tax system rigged for billionaires and large corporations — and it’s hard to be the party of working people when that’s the system you’re fighting for.”

Trump Is a Bigger Drag on Republicans Than the Democratic Party Is on Democrats

All three Senate Democratic candidates are breaking even in their favorability rating, while all three of their Republican opponents are underwater by double digits.

“The economic center of the American electorate is collapsing on Republicans,” said GOP pollster Greg Strimple of GS Strategies. “Voters are so upset with the lack of leadership on reducing their cost of living, they appear willing to propel Democrats to upset victories in reliably Republican states despite the fact that Democrats are less popular than either President Trump or Republicans. The level of voter discontent is truly unprecedented.”

Third Party Candidates Could Be Critical

Even the strongest Democrats in these deep red states could struggle to get to 50% support, given the makeup of the electorate. But they may not need to.

In Iowa and Ohio, third party candidates are taking a significant share of the vote, especially among independent voters. In Texas, Libertarian Ted Brown is taking 3% of the vote.

For example, in Iowa, 8% of voters, including one in five independents, currently support Libertarian nominee Thomas Laehn. It’s possible that some of these voters are confusing him with Republican gubernatorial nominee Zach Lahn, but it’s also likely that many of them are simply disaffected with both parties and are parking themselves in the Libertarian camp for now. Given the closeness of this race, the winner may depend on whether these voters ultimately stick with a third-party candidate protest vote, hold their nose to vote for Hinson or Turek, or just throw up their hands and stay home.

The Bottom Line

Earlier this cycle, Republicans counted on three key advantages to hold the Senate majority: financial firepower, a map dominated by historically ruby red states, and an unpopular Democratic brand.

Yet, with just two weeks until Election Day, those advantages have faded. The narrative of the election is indisputably a referendum on an unpopular president whose policies and priorities voters blame for their economic anxiety and hardships, even in states where he coasted to victory two years ago.

Mish: Narrow Lead or Substantial Lead?

Cook Political: In Ohio, where 7% of all voters —including 13% of independents — are picking either the independent or Libertarian candidate for Senate, Brown would only need win a small percentage of these to reach a majority of the vote, whereas Husted would need all of those voters to ultimately break his way to reach a bare 50% of the vote.

Is that a narrow lead or very substantial lead?

Even a two percent Iowa polling error could result in a Republican hold. But Turek has some additional wind behind his back with the Iowa Governorship certainly headed Democrats’ way.

It’s easy enough to vote straight Democrat and walk away, or simply not vote at all if you are a disgusted Republican.

Cook Political still rates Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Maine as tossups which I view as overly cautious if not downright silly.

At +6 in Ohio and +5 in Texas, Democrats could win with a three percent polling error easily.

Governor Races

If you want to discuss “narrow lead” look no further than Greg Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa for Texas Governor by just two points (48% to 46%).

In Iowa and Ohio, Republicans are going down hard in gubernatorial races.

Other polls show you can add Alaska to that mix.

Nate Silver Number of Seat Odds

I concur with Silver that +6 is the single most likely outcome.

+7 would include Kansas. +8 would add Nebraska. And +9 would add South Carolina or some other state no one is even discussing.

Silver has +3 at 8.3 percent. That would be something like Republicans holding Maine, Iowa, Kansas, Texas but losing North Carolina, Alaska, and Ohio. Switch Ohio and Texas if you like.

Silver has +9 at 7.6%. Anyone buy that? It’s possible. That’s how angry everyone is.

I am willing to put a lot of weight on these new Senate polls.

And a new New NYT/Siena poll today shows Likely voters favored Democratic candidates over Republicans by 11 percentage points in New York Times/Siena poll.

Plus we are running out of time. The election is only 12 days away.

As a result, I am upping my odds of Democrats winning the Senate from 65 percent to 70 percent.

Democrat Senate Odds

• Split Ticket: 65 percent
• Polymarket: 67 percent
• Kalshi: 66 percent
• Nate Silver Deluxe: 77.1 percent
• Nate Silver Classic: 73.2 percent
• Nate Silver Lite: 74.5
• Mish: 70 percent

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