The trends in housing all remain down: starts, permits, completions, and sales.
August 2026 New Residential Construction
The monthly New Residential Construction report for august 2026 shows a decline in starts, permits, and completions.
Housing Starts
- Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,275,000.
- This is 2.6 percent (±12.0 percent) below the revised July estimate of 1,309,000 and is 1.2 percent (±10.8 percent) below the August 2025 rate of 1,291,000.
- Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 918,000; this is 7.6 percent (±14.0 percent) above the revised July figure of 853,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 344,000.
Building Permits
- Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,394,000.
- This is 2.7 percent below the revised July rate of 1,433,000, but is 3.5 percent above the August 2025 rate of 1,347,000.
- Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 878,000; this is 1.8 percent below the revised July figure of 894,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 467,000 in August.
Housing Completions
- Privately-owned housing completions in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,128,000.
- This is 11.9 percent (±9.7 percent) below the revised July estimate of 1,280,000 and is 27.1 percent (±8.9 percent) below the August 2025 rate of 1,548,000.
- Single-family housing completions in August were at a rate of 816,000; this is 10.4 percent (±9.3 percent) below the revised July rate of 911,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 302,000.
Note the margins of error on single-family housing starts ±14.0 percent.
Single Family vs Multi-Family
Single Family vs Multi-Family Details SA in Thousands
- Total: 1,275
- Single Family: 918
- Multi-Family: 357
Housing Permits
The Covid permit rebound was sharp, in two phases, culminating at 1.923 million in January 2021.
That was followed by a slump to 1.398 million permits in December of 2022.
Since February of 2023, it’s been a slow grind lower.
You cannot start what isn’t permitted.
Housing Completions
The wave of completions surged 1.7 million units in August of 2024.
Conventional wisdom was the surge in completions would lead to falling home prices and falling rent.
Neither happened.
In isolation, rising completions should pressure rent prices and falling completions support prices.
Deportations and trends toward moving back home with parents make things difficult to project.
Housing Units Under Construction
Units Under Construction Details
- Total: 1,271
- Multi-Family: 682
- Single-Family: 589
Despite the big decline, there is still a large number of units under construction. But who can afford to buy?
On the surface, this will put price pressure on units as they complete. But many of these are pre-sold, I believe to buyers who will regret buying.
And people have been predicting a huge price collapse in homes and rents on the basis of completed supply. Neither happened despite the surge in completed homes.
Mortgage Rates
The average 30-year mortgage rate is 7.24 percent, up from 5.99 percent in February according to Mortgage News Daily.
Related Posts
January 30, 2026: Dear Zoomers, Trump Says He “Wants to Drive Up Housing Prices”
Somehow, I doubt Gen Z will like this message.
September 13, 2026: Existing-Home Sales Drop Two Percent, Gone Nowhere for Four Years
It’s more nowhere for now, but a big caution ahead.
September 15, 2026: 10-Year Treasury Yield Highest Since July 2007, 30-Year Since July 2004
That’s the highest in 19 years and 22 years respectively.
The half million starter home cannot survive 7% interest rates.
Mish I’m curious, do you have any idea why it isn’t causing a collapse? The market seems to be doing just fine after the hike in a state of total delusion. Where’s the levee breaking?
Credit is doing well. I believe there is a credit bubble, AI-Related
Yes lots of people who signed presale contracts are trying to get out of them and walking away from their deposits. However, in some cases the builders bank is forcing them to complete so that the construction loan is paid back. But the buyer can’t complete because his bank won’t lend because the appraisal has come in too low.
For an average 400k loan with 10% down:
Approx. monthly Principal & interest
$2,395
Property taxes (~1.0%)
$333
Homeowners insurance
$150
PMI (10% down)
$150
Total
~$3,030/month
What’s for dinner?
They keep saying the Trump administration is on the menu. But I’ve been around since 2016, so I’ll believe it when I see it.
Around me in NJ, an average house runs about $800K – with problems. Even a 1.6 million dollar house is just an average house built in the 1950’s in a decent town. Taxes in NJ are mostly in the 2% to 4% range annually. Property taxes where running me $25,000/year for an older 1.6 million dollar house. Insurance was around $7,000. 20 years ago, taxes on the same house were $14,000 and insurance was $1,200. Add in utilities at $600-$1,500/month, repairs at $10,000/year, landscaping at $7,000 year and things start adding up fast. $3,030 a month was a dream lost decades ago!
When I got divorced in 2005, down the street from my much older big house, was a large 12,000 square foot house. It had property taxes of $1,000 – per WEEK – $52,000/year. It took them 3 years to sell the house. Eventually they did at a lower price than their construction cost $15 years earlier. My ex-inlaws, rather wealthy, built at 14,000 square foot house in 1990 for $16,000,000. The 12 acre land cost them $6,700,000 (1990). When they retired and left for Florida, the house sat empty for 12 *years*. Perfectly maintained. They sold it last year for $4,700,000.
But real estate only goes up – right?
That’s a crazy story. In 12 years they probably replaced nearly everything that wears out (AC, water heaters, roof etc) just from sitting there. That’s on top of the taxes (guessing they paid 1000/week too which would be 750K or more over 12 years).
The thing that makes the least sense is why they let it sit empty. I mean your ex could have at least lived there given it had to be maintained and paid for.
Biggest problem for mansions is re-selling them. Always a very limited market and unless you live in a crazy desirable area like ocean front they can be very hard to move.
I guess when you have enough money, somethings fly out the window. For them, living in NJ was costing them an extra $7,000,000 in income tax. They had sold their business and moved to Florida. Of course, they though their house was worth $17M. Every year or so, they would drop the price a little. At some point, they just became stubborn. Hell, the landscaping bill was over $100,000/year. Property tax where about $140,000/year.
When you build a huge house, which is basically a monument to yourself, go luck finding a buyer. Anyone with that kind of money who wants a monument house wants to build their own.
But my main point is that real estate does not always go up – even for the average houses. Add in property taxes, insurance, landscaping, pool costs and repairs, and the house is a huge burden – even if you have no mortgage.
I live in a very nice townhouse rental now – private drive, 2 car garage, 4 bed rooms, 3.5 baths which sells for around the same price as in 2005. I know because I lived there as well when I got divorced! 18 years later, I moved back across the street from the same unit I rented when I was first divorced.
How did they make their “rather wealthy” money in the first place?
Manufacturing company. I worked there for 16 years as well. I helped them sell the business in 1999. At the time, we had $110,000,000 in sales with a *net* margin of over 50%. Do the math. The business started in 1929 and never had a losing year.
I never go a penny from the sale!
For illustrative purposes only, Dan. I live an hour outside of DC. I here ya!
Ramen
You have to make roughly 50k to clear 36k. If payments are one third of income the salary is roughly 150k to afford this deal. The bottom half of the economy is cut off at the knees, no home for you.
“You cannot start what isn’t permitted.”
This sounds like the type of unnecessary regulation Trump circumvents regularly…
See East Wing of White House…See forklift bouncing off columns of the Kennedy Center (before it’s gone too).
While the Fed’s decision to raise rates is intended to ultimately help the economy by taming inflation, it is likely to exact pain on some borrowers. For instance, higher interest rates will compound housing affordability challenges by increasing construction costs, said Robert Dietz, the chief economist at the National Association of Homebuilders. “Today’s rate hike will have a limited effect on mortgage rates, but it will increase the cost of financing for builder and land developer loans, which are more directly connected to short-term interest rates including the funds rate.”
Housing isn’t the issue. It’s the data center/Ai bubble this time.
The point is to make some borrowers not be borrowers anymore.
Fiddling with the interest rate probably worked better when the majority of the population understood percentages and interest rates. Now, not so much.
Yes, if they borrow at the prime rate which is about 3% plus the Fed Funds Rate. Income is not keeping up with new housing construction costs. Housing needs to drop at least 20% below all time high price levels set around 2022 to start to approach to affordability.
This time it’s different!
Actually, I believe it is. We are not looking at a housing bubble like we were 20 years ago. Housing can and will decline gradually for the foreseeable future without blowing up the entire economy. That is the job of AI and it’s historic bubble.
The gradual decline in housing is, in my opinion, a greater indication of the decline of this country. People cannot afford houses anymore and that is readily measured ina variety of ways.
The days of the American Empire are coming to an end. The days of being able to afford things beyond food and shelter are getting slimmer.
This is one of the reasons a Muslim communist mayor was elected in NYC. Hard to believe they could do that after 911 but people are grasping at anything they believe will help them. The average wage earner cannot afford to live in NYC.
Really don’t see how the religion of a mayor has anything to do with it.
Your bigotry & ignorance is showing.
Need a safe place snowflake?
I think you’re the one needing a safe space. C’mon now, we’re all grown ups here, why don’t you explain what his race has to do with it? Use big boy words.
“Need a safe place snowflake?” he said, hiding under his bed from the wicked Muslims and communists 😂
It is hilarious. Who is the biggest “creeping socialist”, Trump or Mamdani? Mamdani has a religion (big no no in communism); they have to make stuff up to make it look like Trump has led a religious life.
Seems to be doing a pretty good job. Even Trumpstien likes him.
I don’t think “housing” is actually declining. If you look at home ownership rates by decade, a century ago in the 1920s they were about 45%, but then increased to hit 64% in 1980. They have bounced around in the mid sixties percent range ever since, with a peak of 69% in 2004 (housing bubble times) and a nadir of 63.4% in 2016. They have since recovered to 65.2% in 2025.
What has actually been hurting dramatically in recent years is “home sales”. What this means in practical terms is that Americans are staying in their homes for a longer period of time. In 2005 the median years in home was 6.5 years. This shot up to 13.4 years in 2020, and is now about 12.0 years. This is an absolute catastrophe to the NAR because their commission revenue has taken a beating. It probably also hurts some retailers (e.g. furniture, carpeting, curtains, etc.) somewhat too. But it is not a catastrophe for the overall economy. There are some problems, like affordability for first time buyers, but in general I don’t the housing situation indicates a decline of the US. (There are other better measures of that.)
Soon the USA will be rechristened Argentina Norte, in honor of the latter’s history, from resource-rich prosperity to debt-mired poverty. USA-adjacent bodies of water will be rebranded accordingly.
I believe the prediction was based on Trump deporting millions or maybe billions of people. Wages would surge, benefits dole would be cut tremendously except none of that seems to have happened. What’s going on?
Was Trump totally impotent on following through or was it all just a lie for suckers and losers?
“Was Trump totally impotent on following through or was it all just a lie for suckers and losers?”
I believe both of those can be simultaneously true.