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Hello Recession Deniers, It’s Already Time to Ponder a Third Quarter of Negative GDP

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51 comments on Hello Recession Deniers, It’s Already Time to Ponder a Third Quarter of Negative GDP

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GDPNow Data from Atlanta Fed. Chart by Mish.

Latest estimate: 1.3 percent — August 1, 2022

Economic data for the third quarter is only a few days underway. But please note the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model is already headed the wrong direction. 

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on August 1, down from 2.1 percent on July 29. After this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 2.5 percent and -1.4 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and -2.1 percent, respectively.

Manufacturing ISM® Stays Positive. But For How Long?

Earlier today I asked, Manufacturing ISM® Stays Positive. But For How Long?

Three Key Points

  1. Inventories are at their highest level since July 1984.
  2. New orders and employment contract for the third month.
  3. The backlog of orders is barely positive

This does not bode well for US manufacturing looking ahead.

ISM and Construction Spending

ISM reports have a way of tanking the GDPNow estimates. But it’s not the numbers that matter actually. Rather its what the model expected vs the data that mattered. 

Either the ISM numbers or the June construction report numbers were worse than the model expected.

The second quarter is over and I usually don’t dwell on the past, but Econoday reports June construction spending was -1.1 percent vs an expected 0.2 percent.

I sent an email to Pat Higgins, GDPNow creator, asking which was more important, ISM or construction spending. If I get an answer I will post it.  

I’ll Take The Under Flashbacks 

On July 29, 2022, I commented The Initial GDPNow Forecast for Third-Quarter GDP is 2.1 Percent. Once again, I make my quarterly statement. I’ll take the under.

GDPNow 2022 Q2 initial estimate from the Atlanta Fed, annotations by Mish.

January 28, 2022 Flashback

GDPNow 2022 Q1 initial estimate from the Atlanta Fed, annotations by Mish.

On January 28, I commented With Nearly Everyone Looking the Other Way, It’s Time to Discuss Recession

Hello Recession Deniers

Continuing the January 28, theme the title of this post is “Hello Recession Deniers, It’s Already Time to Ponder a Third Quarter of Negative GDP“

Others noted the inventory vs orders disconnect as well. 

“The last 4 times the spread between New Orders and Inventories in the ISM Manufacturing Index was this negative, the US was already in a recession. The 2001, 1990-91, and 1981-82 recessions never had readings this low.“

Chip Check Reality

San Francisco Anecdotes

Things that Don’t Make Sense

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1553146255294996481

Is Powell a bad liar or is he more economically illiterate than most thought?

Yellen, No Evidence of Recession

Yellen On July 24

Yellen on July 25

Technical Recession

A “technical” recession is indeed two quarters of negative GDP. However, that is not the definition of recession. 

Many people on Fintwit accused the White House, Powell and Yellen of changing the definition. The definition of recession did not change.

Here’s my take: GDP is -0.9 Percent, Second Straight Decline, But a Recession Did Not Start in Q1

There will be talk of a recession starting in the first quarter. Forget about it. Look for May as the start.

Real Final Sales

GDP declined for two quarters but Real Final Sales (RFS) did not. RFS is the true bottom line estimate for the economy. The baseline number includes inventory adjustments that net to zero over time.

Unless the BEA revises RFS into negative territory, don’t expect a Q1 recession declaration.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), is the official arbiter of recessions. It is highly unlikely to declare a recession starting in the first quarter with RFS at +1.1 percent.

Transition Time

A transition to slow growth is either delusional or a bald-faced lie. 

Those in the “lie” camp may believe Yellen is providing cover for Fed Chair Jerome Powell for more rate hikes. 

I think Yellen is proven clueless, but that does not rule out a lie. 

Looking Ahead

Much of GDP changes very little throughout the quarter (military spending, Medicare, Social Security, food stamps, etc.)

It’s cyclicals (durable goods and housing) that tend to drive expansions and recessions.

July may see improvement on inflation based on energy. But rent (over 31 percent of the CPI) is still rising. Consumer sentiment is poor and inflation-adjusted retail sales do not rate to be good for the entire quarter.

Cyclical Discussion

Housing will be another big bust this quarter. And durable goods rate to follow housing. Manufacturing rates to be negative. 

Hopes for the quarter rest solely on consumer spending and falling inflation. But don’t count on strong retail sales.

Add it all up and you have a third quarter of negative GDP.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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Mike Shedlock

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51 Comments
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Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
3 years ago

The BEA should define a recession as negative real income growth.

Real Disposable Personal Income (A067RL1Q156SBEA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
2020-07-01 -16.6
2020-10-01 -8.3
2021-01-01 54.7
2021-04-01 -29.1
2021-07-01 -4.1
2021-10-01 -4.5
2022-01-01 -7.8
2022-04-01 -0.5
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RonJ
RonJ
3 years ago
“Yellen, No Evidence of Recession”
Her job requires not seeing evidence of a recession.
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Counter
Counter
3 years ago
According to Ludwig von Mises,

there is need to emphasize the truism that a government can spend or invest only what it takes away from its citizens and that its additional spending and investment curtails the citizens’ spending and investment to the full extent of it quantity.

Government Spending Doesn’t Create Economic Growth 01/25/2019 Frank Shostak
According to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Government Spending in the United States increased to 44 percent of the GDP in 2020 from 35.68 percent in 2019.
The government could choose projects that earn a return but I haven’t seen many.
And one from Mish,
GDP Up 6.9% Is Mostly An Artificially Boosted Illusion
The advance GDP estimate for the 4th quarter of 2021 looks robust but details reveal otherwise.
btw The US Is Depleting Its Strategic Petroleum Reserve Faster Than It Looks. The composition of the US crude cache will be the next key development for energy markets. Bloomberg
What is this called again?
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Counter
Counter
3 years ago
Reply to  Counter
Why were interest rates so low?
Reconsidering Monetary Policy: An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Interest Rates and Nominal GDP Growth in the U.S., U.K., Germany and Japan. Richard Werner, Kang-Soek Lee
Examining the relationship between 3-month and 10-year benchmark rates and nominal GDP growth over half a century in four of the five largest economies we find that interest rates follow GDP growth and are consistently positively correlated with growth. If policy-makers really aimed at setting rates consistent with a recovery, they would need to raise them. We conclude that conventional monetary policy as operated by central banks for the past half-century is fundamentally flawed. Policy-makers had better focus on the quantity variables that cause growth.
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KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
There are a lot of potential black swans that can send our current recession into a depression. When recessions occur, companies get financially stressed which lead to margin calls that can’t be met. Seems like Europe is loaded with a lot of potential unexpected developments. And if we have a skirmish with China, we’ll be really screwed. Covid should have shown us how much more dependent we are on them than they on us. A repeat of Ukraine. I can’t think of many things we supply that they can’t easily make themselves. The converse is far from being true.
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prumbly
prumbly
3 years ago
The US economy is advancing backwards, like the Ukrainian army.
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davidyjack
davidyjack
3 years ago
Reply to  prumbly
Ukrainian Army is strong against Russian Army and Putin’s horrible invasion.
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Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Primitive résumés
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killben
killben
3 years ago
This is a well-known ploy of politicians, governments, bureaucrats, head of govt institutions etc.
Just deny. Then bluff, Then redefine
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shamrock
shamrock
3 years ago
Today’s recession deniers are the same people who denied that self driving technology would have widespread adoption by 2022? Luddites.
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Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
3 years ago
Reply to  shamrock
How widespread is it ?
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prumbly
prumbly
3 years ago
Reply to  shamrock
Self-driving is decades away, as usual.
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Siliconguy
Siliconguy
3 years ago

Aug 1 (Reuters) – Oracle Corp (ORCL.N) has started to lay off employees in the United States, The Information said on Monday, citing a person with direct knowledge of the matter.

The publication in July reported that Oracle was considering cutting thousands of jobs in its global workforce after targeting cost cuts of up to $1 billion.

The company had about 143,000 full-time employees as of May 31, according to its latest annual report.

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Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
3 years ago
Reply to  Siliconguy
Awww. Did the corp HQ move to Texas not save enough money to stave off job cuts ?
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vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
economy is certainly stagnating. plus, prices of daily purchases of food and services up. put those together, and we get Stagflation. this will last a very long time. tough to get rates high enough to tame inflation. took the late sixties and all the seventies and half the 80s to do it last time.
on politics. biden is lucky he’s gonna lose congress. he’ll have 2 years to get heat off him alone. he’ll do a peace deal with russia with prisoner swaps. russians captured amerikan belligerents. when russia is allowed to price oil in dollars again, and powell stops jacking up rates in mid 2024 so sleepy joe can sail in for a 2nd term. if Rump is the R choice, sleepy can win from his basement taking naps. plus he can always just steal the election again. sarc/
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Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  vanderlyn
He did not steal the election.
He bought it fair and square.
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
A second measure of economic growth is GDI. Could you address this measure at some point in time?
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
Mish, I second that motion.
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Christoball
Christoball
3 years ago
Reply to  JackWebb
This is what I found on GDI:
GDI = Wages + Profits + Interest Income + Rental Income + Taxes – Production/Import Subsidies + Statistical Adjustments
So my thinking is that many things ( especially profits ) in GDI appear to need exhaustive efforts of accountants much the same as tax returns. So much of it is lagging reporting, much like a 1040 form tells how you did last year. It would be a better indicator of what was the past situation, rather than what is the current situation especially in a Topsy-Turvy environment like today.
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PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  Christoball
That is correct. Second quarter GDI will be released this month. First quarter was 1.8% if I remember correctly.
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Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Reply from Pat Higgins

Hi Mike,

Most of the impact would have been due to the ISM
manufacturing release. The construction spending release would have had
little impact on the model’s dynamic factor since the construction spending
data only goes through June and most of the change to the factor was in its
July value. Prior to the ISM release, the July factor was forecasted to
be -0.03. After the ISM release, the estimated July value was
-0.61. Since the only way the construction spending release impacts real
consumer spending is through the dynamic factor, and the decline in the
contribution of consumer spending to growth accounted for most of the decline
in the real GDP forecast, the ISM release had the larger impact on the decline
in the nowcast today.

Best regards,

Pat

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Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
3 years ago
The economy is being run in reverse. It takes increasing infusions of Reserve Bank credit to generate the same inflation adjusted dollar amounts of gDp.
Rather than bottling up existing savings, the monetary authorities should pursue every possible means for promoting the orderly and
continuous flow of monetary savings into real investment. That means driving the banks out of the savings business.
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Christoball
Christoball
3 years ago
Reply to  Salmo Trutta
I think it was shared that money in savings accounts were deposited by the banks into the Fed netting an 80 billion dollar return for the banks. Since the fed does not lend money to consumers or businesses, savings accounts in effect remove money out of the system and slow the velocity of money. I am sure this is the desired effect.
Also since a high percentage of tax revenue goes to pay off the federal debt, and much of the federal debt is owned by the Fed, then tax dollars too are removed from the system and slow the velocity of money. This too is probably the desired effect. As much as the Fed pumps up the money supply it also constricts the money supply using these mechanisms.
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Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
3 years ago
Reply to  Christoball

It’s not economics. It’s politics. The American Bankers Association is responsible for secular stagnation. It’s not “don’t fight the fed”, it’s don’t fight the ABA.

The FED’s technical staff doesn’t know a debit from a credit. They don’t even know how the system works. Their countless errors demonstrate the alarming truth. All the recessions since WWII were both predictable and preventable.

Toward a More Meaningful Statistical Concept of the Money Supply on JSTOR
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Salmo Trutta
Salmo Trutta
3 years ago
Reply to  Salmo Trutta

The policies are driven by the ABA. See Barron’s:

1) “Forgotten Man? Washington Again Is Threatening to
Penalize the Thrifty” Jun. 6, 1966
2) “Up the Down Staircase, The New Economics Doesn’t Know Whether It’s Coming
or Going” Sept. 26, 1966
3) “Ceiling Zero. The U.S. Must Take the Lid Off Money Rates” Nov. 26, 1967
4) “Men and Money, Savers of Modest Means Deserve a Decent Return” Jan. 19,
1970
5) “Q Marks the Spot. All Ceilings on Interest Rates Should Be Lifted” Dec. 28,
1970
6) “Maximum Mischief, Ceilings on Interest Rates Must Go” Mar. 13, 1973
7) “Supreme Interest. The Banking Agencies Have Finally Done Something Right”
Jul. 23, 1973
8) “No More Wild Cards, Congress Has Dealt Savers Out of the Money Game” Oct.
2, 1973
9) “Poor Joe DiMaggio. It No Longer Pays to Save at the Bowery”” Sept. 22, 1975

The ABA was behind the Depository Institutions Deregulation
and Monetary Control Act (which destroyed the thrifts, caused the Savings and
Loan Association crisis, or “the failure of 1,043 out of the 3,234 savings and
loan associations in the United States from 1986 to 1995”; and created the U.S.
July 1990 –Mar 1991 economic recession). As predicted in May 1980, the GSE’s picked
up the slack.

Banks don’t lend deposits. Deposits are the result of lending. The impoundment of monetary savings causes secular stagnation.
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Christoball
Christoball
3 years ago
Reply to  Salmo Trutta
I guess what I was getting at is that the Federal Government does not spend a great portion of collected taxes, but pays off much of the debt to the Fed who in turn does not spend or lend it. Much of Government spending is the result of borrowing. It’s all just a lot of pouring the same water from one bucket to the other and then back again to the other bucket.
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worleyeoe
worleyeoe
3 years ago
We are NOT in a recession in the classic sense. When job losses push up the unemployment rate, then we can talk.
The 30YFRM is now at 5.05%. In the next day or two, it will push below 5%. How soon it hits 4.5% is hard to say, but 30 days is very reasonable.
Again, as it moves towards 4.5%, the housing market will begin to stabilize. The reasons are simple:
150 basis point reduction of 30YFRM, lower asking prices and actual declines of ~ 5-8% in home values.
Then over the remainder of 2022 the economy will slowly do a 180, with housing broadly not down more than 10% nationwide.
As we all know, the housing market is a leading indicator of recessions. By late this fall, price reductions will mostly be a thing of the past.
Q3 will be the last negative quarter. Once housing does its 180, the Fed is going to pause, probably at 3% FFR. Things will continue to look wobbly through the winter, but by early next spring GDP will be consistently positive.
Lookout for some sort of October surprise by Russia to really stoke petrol. Natural gas prices will remain through the roof for the foreseeable future. China’s real estate market / COVID lockdown economy are x-factors as well.
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Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
3 years ago
Reply to  worleyeoe
I’ll say it depends on the job market. I would welcome a deep dark recession that would wring out the excesses of covid and supposed strength in corporations over the last decade. The truth is there is very little productive growth and companies even chased profits up by doing stock buybacks and accounting chicanery over the last 6 years. Baseline growth is around 1-2% at best.
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worleyeoe
worleyeoe
3 years ago
Reply to  Casual_Observer2020
I agree, but with housing being such a leading indicator, including job losses, then if housing turns around faster than what people think, then this slows down or even reverses the likelihood of substantial job losses spreading to other sectors of the economy.
But, yes, I agree job losses are KEY.
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CRS65
CRS65
3 years ago
Mish said, “A transition to slow growth is either delusional or a bald-faced lie.” With 9% inflation and a -.90% second quarter GDP, this means mathematically that nominal GDP grew approximately 8% in the second quarter. Thus, if inflation (CPI) drops just 3% over the course of the third quarter and nominal growth stays in the 7-8% range, we end up with positive Real GDP growth. It is pretty much a sure thing that CPI will begin to come down meaningfully over the next several months. If companies are overall able to maintain or at least reduce price levels for goods and services less than the drop in inflation, real growth can indeed stay positive. As we get further into 2022 the YOY CPI comparisons will accelerate further declines in the CPI rate and inflation will not cut into nominal GDP nearly as much as it did in the first half of 2022.
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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  CRS65
GDP is inflation adjusted so inflation dropping won’t help GDP. It also means GDP did not grow by 8% in the 2nd quarter.
Zimbabwe would have the greatest economy in the world if GDP wasn’t inflation adjusted.
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Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
TT is correct
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CRS65
CRS65
3 years ago
Reply to  Mish
TT is correct about what? Zimbabwe! Zimbabwe’s inflation is not driven by higher costs, it is driven by a virtually worthless currency. We actually have the opposite issue here. We a very strong currency, but we have mostly supply-side driven upward cost pressures. We under built homes for the last 12 years and we had extremely cheap money, it is not shocking that we have experienced sharp rises in home prices as the largest single generation, the Millennials, move into their 30’s. My point regarding GDP is that very strong nominal GDP is being swamped by temporarily ultra-high inflation this year so far. That was not the case for the first half of 2021 when nominal GDP was very strong, but inflation was still relatively low. CPI certainly does not flow one for one into nominal GDP, thus we can see inflation fall faster than nominal GDP if some of these temporary drivers of inflation continue to fall sharply.
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worleyeoe
worleyeoe
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
The average American cares very little about GDP. They care about inflation, and as far as I can tell, CRS65 is correct:
“As we get further into 2022 the YOY CPI comparisons will accelerate further declines in the CPI rate . . .”
However, what really matters is how much the cost of goods we buy a lot of drops. Gas is dropping, but diesel not so much. Food prices are starting to decline a little, but a lot of that inflation is probably baked in and isn’t going to reverse much.
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  worleyeoe
People don’t care about GDP as a number, but definitely about its manifestations.
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worleyeoe
worleyeoe
3 years ago
Reply to  JackWebb
What? That Target, Walmart, Bed Bath & Beyond stopped buying inventory late last year through early this year that caused GDP to drop which also affected domestic manufacturing? I don’t think they care one bit about that. 80% of the country couldn’t associate manifestations of declining GDP to their own livelihood. They care about having jobs, inflation, their rent and what it costs to use their credit cards.
At least for now, broad-based job losses are not in the cards. Maybe the July jobs report will be the beginning of a real pivot to the downside, but for now, I have my doubts. Inflation is beginning to moderate. June was most likely the peak. There’s been no brown outs that I know of that were predicted which could cause problems. The food supply, for now, is holding up. Housing is declining a little and 30YFRM are dropping like a rock just on the “assumption” a recession is around the corner. Sure, their credit card rates are increasing, but they’re not through the roof. The fed has only raised the prime rate by 2.25%. The big inflation driver this winter will be the cost of NG, heating oil & rent. The later isn’t coming down anytime soon.
And, the stock market through July is broadly up. Don’t fight the Fed is the mantra. For now at least, the markets are winning and the Fed is losing BIG TIME, mainly because they’re not selling MBS keep mortgage rates up.
IF I’m right, and I admit most economic predictions are big IFs, then the Fed will engineer a soft landing in housing that basically pushes the can down the road in terms of a significant but very much needed major reset in home values. And they will have done it on the back of unprecedented MBS purchases that directly manipulated the markets and has permanently changed the calculation of all sorts of assets traders, especially those who invest in MBS.
The Fed put is alive and well. It’s just been rebranded. The grotesque level of market manipulation by the Fed since 9/2008 is just utterly, absolutely stunning.
As always, thanks for your uber short comments, JackWebb. They are much appreciated to my bloated pontificating.
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Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
3 years ago
Anecdotally, the president of my company mentioned our customers are hesitant to develop capital equipment because interest rates have gone up. Supply chains are neither 100%, nor expected to be 100% within the next 12 months. These customers are GLOBAL industry leaders. The economy is at a tipping point, so one or two more months of capital expenditure hesitation is going to confirm a recession.
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MPO45
MPO45
3 years ago
According to the BLS. Compensation costs are up which means people are getting paid more. Released Friday…
“Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 5.1 percent for the 12-month period ending in
June 2022 and increased 2.9 percent in June 2021. Wages and salaries increased 5.3 percent for the
12-month period ending in June 2022 and increased 3.2 percent for the 12-month period ending in
June 2021. Benefit costs increased 4.8 percent over the year and increased 2.2 percent for the
12-month period ending in June 2021.”
Inflation, Inflation, Inflation and Labor, Labor, Labor are the two problems. It’s going to get very weird when boomers keep retiring and companies can’t find workers yet costs keep going up and up. Powell never mentions the demographic problem in the US and around the world, when he does get around to mentioning it then you know SHTF.
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
It’s not a recession… this happens every solar maximum, and was recorded first by Ben Franklyn while writing an early draft of the Constitution. This is merely another blatant attempt by the Soros owned media to seed panic so they can ride to the rescue with socialism. Wake up sheeple! Do you want your children turned into demons by transvestite storytellers?
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LawrenceBird
LawrenceBird
3 years ago
And yet passenger air travel continues to recover. If people are so hard up why are they continuing to fly everywhere?
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  LawrenceBird
Air passenger travel is well behind 2019 levels, and the same is true of hotel occupancy.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  JackWebb
Hotel occupancy is down about 6%, but they’ve raised prices — anyone who’s been on the road has seen it. We’ll see just how long that lasts.

https://www.costar.com/article/1909687841/str-us-weekly-hotel-occupancy-reaches-highest-level-since-august-2019

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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  LawrenceBird

I just rebooked a ticket that was 1000 bucks 6 weeks ago for 600 bucks. Did people cancel, or were the airline’s demand projections that far off?

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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Politically the government can not admit to a recession going into the midterms. So they will squirm and deny and outright lie to avoid using that word.
After the midterms they may entertain the idea of one especially if (when) the Republicans take control they will claim recession so it happened under Republican watch.
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
That’s exactly what Jimmy Carter’s administration tried to do in 1979 and 1980. They wound up becoming national laughingstocks for refusing to say “the R-word.” They say history doesn’t repeat itself, but only rhymes. There are exceptions; this time, history is repeating itself. LOL

Politically speaking, this is going to be great fun, because the Q3 numbers will be unambiguous just in time for the November mid-terms. Even the “progressive” media will be forced to acknowledge it. By mid-October, the entire country is going to be laughing at Xiden and the Democrats. It’s going to be ugly. LOL

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TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  JackWebb
Biden will be jettisoned by the Democrats like Trump was by the Republicans.
There is an old saying (team sports, business world, politics etc) that goes:
“Success has a 1000 fathers and failure is an orphan”
When Trump unexpectedly won, Republicans from all over attached themselves to his success (1000 fathers). When it became clear he was likely to lose, they jettisoned themselves from him and by the time the election was over, he was an orphan.
When the midterms cause the loss of the house and senate, Democrats will jettison Biden and turn him into an orphan (it’s started already by the media starting to look into Hunters laptop finally).
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
If the Dems get rid of Senile Joe, they’ll lose in ’24. No party that discards a sitting president who’s eligible to run for re-election has won the subsequent election. This is well known to all, including them, and it puts them in a very tough spot. If they also jettison Kamalatoe, they’re going to split wide open over the “racism” of it all. The only solution I can see is to have one of their foundations offer the MOAB (mother of all bribes) to Kamalatoe to clear out and at least avoid a landslide on the order of 1972, 1964, or 1936.
If the Dems are worried now, just wait. Much harder times are coming. Xiden will indeed be a lame duck, just as LBJ was. If the Dems weren’t so stupid lately, Xiden would do a Bill Clinton post-1994, but the party won’t allow it.
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Mish
Mish
3 years ago
Reply to  JackWebb
The best thing for Dems is for Biden to stay in to the end, then announce he’s not running.
If he resigns now, splintering over Harris.
But I doubt Biden lasts 2 more years.
If he is going to pull out, is it the sooner the better for Dems?
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JackWebb
JackWebb
3 years ago
Reply to  Mish
I have thought from the beginning that Joe wouldn’t serve out his term, and would wait until after Jan. 20, 2023 to leave. All about Amendment XXII and Kamala. Problem is that she’s unpopular, and so are the media that will try to build her up. To me, the big issue will be what to do with Kamala. Absent the MOAB, the Dems are going to be stuck with her. One possibility — highly unlikely — is that the Dems manage to keep the Senate, and then Biden appoints Kamala to the Supreme Court.
In any case, I don’t think it’s nearly as much about Biden as it is about Kamala Harris. Especially if the Dems get kicked in three months as hard as I think they will be, she’s going to be their political boat anchor in ’24, which was always going to be a tough cycle for the Dems. I can easily see this turning into ’36, ’64, ’72. Maybe even worse. If the Dems get a good a** kicking in November, they will be running very, very scared, and they ought to be.
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Casual_Observer2020
Casual_Observer2020
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
The Republicans can fix everything as we know. Nothing terrible has ever happen economically with a Republican president.
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Zardoz
Zardoz
3 years ago
Reply to  Casual_Observer2020
When they bring about the rapture, all will be well.
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