Nine States Post New Record Cases
The day after the election, Covid Cases Surged to New Records.
Nine states reported record one-day increases in cases on Wednesday: Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Washington and Wisconsin.
In addition to rising cases, on Tuesday hospitalizations topped 50,000 for the first time in three months. North Dakota reported only six free intensive care unit beds in the entire state on Wednesday, when it was one of 14 states that reported record levels of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.
The proportion of tests coming back positive is greater than 50% in South Dakota and over 40% in Iowa and Wyoming. The World Health Organization says rates of more than 5% are concerning because they indicate undetected community transmission.
The previous U.S. record for new cases in a day was 100,233 on Oct. 30, the highest ever reported by any country in the world.
New Cases Per Million
New Deaths Per Million
Deaths inevitably follow hospitalizations so we should see a spike in deaths soon.
Mish
A live debate is happening on Youtube in a couple of hours that some may be interested in:
Herd Immunity as a Coronavirus Pandemic Strategy
November 6, 2020, 3:20P Central US
Would letting coronavirus infect the broad US and global population be a safe and effective means of ending the COVID-19 pandemic?
Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD, of Stanford University’s Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research is a signatory of the ‘Great Barrington Declaration,’ which proposes to “allow those at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk.”
Marc Lipsitch, PhD, of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, a signatory of the ‘John Snow Memorandum’ which refutes the argument, responds.
San Diego County is facing another shutdown due to increase in new cases. Repeat increase in new cases, not increase in hospitalizations. There has been no increase in hospitalizations, it remains at 297 in a county of 2.5 million, but new cases requires an economic shutdown.
People had their chance 3 days ago on Nov 3rd to express their dissatisfaction with the overall COVID response in their political area by voting out incumbents who supported economic lockdowns and/or voting in candidates promising to review/examine the validity of lockdowns.
I have not seen any media reports of people approaching the election in this way. Instead, the horse race (election) degenerated into the usual US vs. THEM choice.
With all eyes on the election this COVID outbreak has gotten completely out of hand. If this virus follows the course we have seen to date we can expect hospitalizations to increase significantly in the next week or two followed by a spike in the death rate. Hope to hell I am wrong otherwise it is not going to be the happiest of Thanksgivings or the Merriest of Christmases.
The truth shall set your free – https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/nhs-nurse-resigns-say-govt-counting-flu-covid-together-real-number-only-3-in-hospital-for-covid/
My company is still planning to re-open the offices to 40% by first of the year. It is a very big company so that explains the lag between the uptrend in COVID and their decision-making.
Chris Martenson: “The silence around Vitamin D alone is extremely telling. It is the pharmacological dog that did not bark.
One true inference suggests others. Here, too, we can deduce from the near total silence around Vitamin D that the health managers would prefer not to talk about it. They don’t want people to know. That much is painfully clear.
Such lack of promotion (let alone appropriate study) of safe, effective treatments is a thread that, if tugged, can unravel the whole rug. The silence tells us everything we need to know.”
Martinson has also become critical of the suppression of HCQ.
Not from Martinson’s blog:
“Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study
Vitamin D Insufficient Patients, those patients that had a blood serum 25(OH)D of between 21 to 29 ng/ml died at a rate that was 12 times greater
than those patients who had a blood serum level greater than 30 ng/ml.
Vitamin D Deficient Patients, those patients that had a Vit D active blood serum level that was lees than 20 ng/ml died at a rate that was 19 times
greater, than those patients that had a blood serum level that was greater than 30 ng/ml.
Regardless of sex or age, Vit. D deficient people are 19 times more likely to die from covid or have serious organ damage than those who are
Vit. D normal.”
As far as i am aware, Dr. Fauci has never suggested that anyone take vitamin D or zinc. Nor has the head of the CDC, to my knowledge.
“”The silence around Vitamin D alone is extremely telling.”
Silence? Do a google and you get 100s of hits. But if you want to read about from the “stablishment”
Honestly it is very sad that you see conspiracies where there are none…
Perhaps the fact that domestic medicine slants heavily towards (long-term, more costly) symptom management over (less costly) preventative care is coincidence, perhaps it is not. Regardless, it is good to see more discussion about something that is beneficial, and there isn’t enough being said on this subject by the ‘authorities’.
There are not conspiracies on vitamin D. Every year for the last 5 years measuring my vitamin D in my blood test has become part of the yearly physical. They have been fortifying milk with D for I don’t know how many eons. They haven’t found that adding D to your diet will keep covid away. They have found, however, that the most severe cases happen to have low D to start with. So yes take the supplement. I don’t need an authority to tell me that.
Ask around and you’ll find a lot of people who don’t inderstand how important Vitamin D is, especially now. Our fantastic MSM should be touting it but they are too busy whipping up political craziness for the dummies that still watch that shit
On case there is any question, I understand that specifically it is Vitamin D3 that is most effective.
Perpetuate the propaganda – that’s what you do best. How much is the “Great Reset” cabal paying you to destroy this country? The death rate in the US has declined from around 0.005% to 0.0033%, and all you can do is scream about the cases.
How many of the hospitalizations were actually for Covid, versus people that had to postpone elective surgeries?
Your advocated cure is much worse than the disease. Heck more people die from automobile and malpractice accidents, so why not eliminate hospitals and cars (oh yah, the WEF and the rest of the green socialist are trying to do that now, and socialize medicine will certainly help with Gates’s eugenics goals).
Look at the numbers:
The US has 13% of the new deaths, 19% of new cases, and 20% of severe cases in the world.
Give or take, that is a larger number of cases than India and Brazil together.
The trend is increasing faster than the most pessimistic projections
Pertinent to the presented data, commentary should focus on the seriousness of the situation.
Gilead
Are you trying to sell me some remdesivir?
You assume that the numbers you see reported are correct. Not only form the USA, but from other countries. That is likely a bad assumption to embrace.
Don’t know according to the Qanon guys there are all actors there is no covid it’s all fake news. No one is sick it’s a plan by the man to keep the bros under control.
One of the most amazing stats that has come out is the increase in the wealth of the 1% over the past 7 months — astronomical; clearly for some Covid has been a great thing.
if editing was there and is now gone – then due to being forced to turn off posting again, the two are related.
Another attack on my website
Sports betting and sports promotion sites sending hundreds or even thousands of links. Do not know the count. They are autodeleted.
This has been going on for several days causing frustration for everyone.
In response, spam filter also affecting legitimate comments. I undelete them when I see them.
Do not submit comments twice if they disappear. It’s extra work on me.
Apologies offered.
Mish
No worries. I doubt the attacks are random….and they will probably go away once the election is decided. Conspiracy theory? Nope. It’s because you’re speaking out.
This problem does seem to crop up when the “I used to follow you Mish, but sadly…” start showing up. Probably incels that not only can’t get a woman, they can’t get anyone to pay any attention to them at all.
I thought spam fighting and security should be the responsibility of the hosting platform you are using – thestreet.com?
So tired of Covid. Let the “weeding” progress and let’s move on.
You first. Get out there and lick toilet seats till you’re infected, then tell us if you feel that’s a experience you’d like to share.
Or why don’t we all just go on with our lives as we choose while you can hide in a corner with your thumb in your mouth, cowering in fear?
No option to edit my post. Only option is to copy link.
Posted to test edit
Georgia Update
Well forget about Noon
This is going to be within a few thousand votes
Assuming 61,000 left and current Trump lead of 13.5K is accurate I believe Biden will win
“We’re going to make sure every legal, lawful ballot is counted,” said Mr. Sterling, speaking for Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.
Of course he will get the votes from the Democrat urban voters. Mish, since you are from the Chicago area perhaps you can verify for us the quality of elections there and to confirm to us that no election fraud could happen there or on in in big city controlled by Democrats for decades. I used t live in Philly and the elections there were a total joke and everybody knew it.
this is not 1960 or even 1970
These are mail-in votes with many watching eyes
Chance of substantial fraud is very low
You really think that? Chicago is a model for fair elections? I suppose we should spread it to Utah then.
From what I understand, unless it’s also >50%, there will have to be a runoff. And the math doesn’t look to support an immediate declaration.
Trump alleges 10,000 illegal votes in Nevada
I didn’t know zerohedge had such a Grindr-oriented profile photo. Gives me a new understanding of his fellowing, err following…
See “Fight Club.” But don’t talk about it.
…I tell Palahniuk (the author of “Fight Club”) that I’ve seen incels – “involuntary celibate” men angry at their lack of sexual partners – quoting Fight Club as an example of why one shouldn’t underestimate ordinary frustrated men. He is amused, saying that the book was previously quoted by adherents to The Game, Neil Strauss’s guide to picking up women for emotionally unattached sex.
“It’s fascinating that the group that can’t get laid is now adopting the same language. It shows how few options men have in terms of metaphors: a skimpy inventory of images. They have The Matrix – there’s a lot of red pill, blue pill stuff – and they have Fight Club. The only other thing is Dead Poets Society, where men go into a cavern and say poems to each other, and they’re not going to adopt that.” …
Hey. I like Dead Poet Society. Robin Williams at his finest. Chuck Palahniuk needs to rewatch the movie.
Incels……In my day we just called it a dry spell….and were thankful when things got better, Never thought of blaming the entire female sex for not being able to get laid.
But we didn’t have 4 chan to commiserate with each other….It was a lonely time for broke-ass geeks.
I suggest these poor guys take a break from women and just learn to make serious money…..the problem will be self-correcting, with a little time.
Or become a tortured artist, like my son….he had to beat the women back with a stick in his single days.
Millions of Danish mink to be culled in CV mutation passed to humans which makes vaccine less viable…
Approximately 275 mink farms in 23 states across the USA produce about 3 million pelts annually, with a value of more than $300 million USD (2013). Wisconsin is the leading mink-producing state, generating well over 1 million pelts. Other important producers are Utah, Idaho, Oregon and Minnesota.
From 4 weeks ago…
Thousands of mink have died at fur farms in Utah and Wisconsin after a series of coronavirus outbreaks.
In Utah, ranchers have lost at least 8,000 mink to Covid-19 among the animals known for their silky, luxurious pelts.
The virus first appeared in the creatures in August, shortly after farmworkers fell ill in July, according to Dr. Dean Taylor, State Veterinarian of Utah. Initial research shows the virus was transmitted from humans to animals, and so far has not seen any cases of the opposite.
“Everything we’ve looked at here in Utah suggests its gone from the humans to the animals,” Taylor told CNN. “It feels like a unidirectional path,” he said, adding that testing is still underway. Utah’s was the first outbreak among mink in the United States.
On Friday, Kevin Hoffman, a spokesperson at the Wisconsin Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection, told CNN 2,000 mink have died from the coronavirus at a Wisconsin farm as well. Officials have quarantined the farm, Hoffman said in a release, meaning no animals or animal products may leave the Taylor County premises.
Dr. Keith Paulson with the UW-Madison Veterinary School Diagnostic Laboratory told CNN affiliate WISN that he noted “significant mortality in the mink” and that three workers there had recovered from the virus after displaying “mild to moderate clinical signs.”
But…
“We have been informed by Denmark of a number of persons infected with coronavirus from mink, with some genetic changes in the virus,” WHO said in a statement emailed to Reuters in Geneva. “The Danish authorities are investigating the epidemiological and virological significance of these findings.”
Health authorities found virus strains in humans and in mink which showed decreased sensitivity against antibodies, potentially lowering the efficacy of future vaccines, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said.
“The worst case scenario is a new pandemic, starting all over again out of Denmark,” said Kare Molbak, director at the State Serum Institute.
Same story in the Netherlands, although it’s already in the rear-view mirror.
….it’s already in the rear-view mirror…
You mean, “it’s already in the world”
No. I mean culling of all the mink farms.
How about China? Wonder what Covid mutations are occurring there as they maintain their secrecy?
Can people edit comments?
I dont’t know, Mr. Editor…
Yes, no problem today.
No. The option is missing, but have experienced this before.
test post, ignore for now
No… can’t edit the post above. Could have sworn that earlier today I saw the option available, but now it’s gone again.
if editing was there and is now gone – then due to being forced to turn off posting again, the two seem related.
Another attack on my website
Pretty sure I saw the edit option on the popup menu earlier this morning. Didn’t see it yesterday. Don’t see it now.
I don’t say anything important, so I don’t really care, not complaining, just letting you know.
Also, any post with a Twitter link apparently gets kicked to spam. Probably a good place for them. But I posted one a few minutes back… I was just sharing a really bad idea (folks pointing out that the state legislatures can send a rival slate of electors, per Constitution) and labeled it as such… wasn’t a “fake newsy” kind of post.
No option to edit.
Is the attack a slew of posts to “STOP THE COUNT!” from one set of addresses and another slew that says “KEEP COUNTING!” from another set of addresses? Just curious…
No – Sports betting and sports in general
Hundreds of users sending mass promotions one after the other
that’s almost… refreshing to hear. anything not-election and not-covid is nice these days.
It was working fine earlier this morning.
nope
Georgia Update
This is going to be within a few thousand votes
Remaining votes will be solidly Biden – do not know if there are enough of them
Remaining 1% of the votes will be 99% Biden?
Do you read?
“Remaining votes will be solidly Biden” does not say the remaining votes will be 99% Biden. It says that Biden ‘should’ get the majority (read >50%) of the remaining votes.
Based on subsequent posts, there are 60k votes left. Pair that with a 14k vote difference against Biden and he needs to get >70% of what’s left. A tall order. Not insurmountable, but also not very likely.
The AJC say 60k left of absentee ballots.
70% of absentees. That’s not far off the mark of what he’s been running with those. It’s a very skewed vote.
GA will be really close.
The problem will be that Georgia will require a runoff election now unless nearly every single vote goes to Trump. Law there requires a majority in addition. So that should be fun.
For in state elections. Not for president.
Mish – do you still have Georgia and PA going to Biden?
Yes , and I believe GA will be the tipping point state if accurate. Just placed bets on that on Predicit
There will be 2 runoff Senate elections in Georgia
Perdue “won” but will not top 50%.
GA requires a runoff
In the other GA seat, no one came close to 50%
Perdue still within 1000 votes of needing a runoff. Will also be close.
Runoff nearly guaranteed
yeah, he’s 12K votes shy of 50% now and trending badly. double run-off.
if AK and NC Senate seats hold, GOP goes into January with 50-48 lead.
by that time we’ll know who will be Prez.
wonder what GA turnout will be like and if they’ll be looking to give the Dems full control or the opposite. can’t imagine turnout will be as high without Trump on ballot.
Mish, can China help us out by shipping those mobile crematorium incinerators from Wuhan that you were writing about 8 months ago?
The nukes?
And that’s only the tested it is probably 10 times more people actually have the virus and/or have had it so we are probably closer to 98 million at least 240k deaths 0.245% deaths…. still 20 times normal flu very serious. Stay safe and be healthy!
I’m not comfortable with the 240k, but from a public health policy perspective, but fatality rates should ALWAYS be reported stratified by age and health status. I’ve seen that as high as 40% of all fatalities have been nursing home residents. Yet the people living in nursing homes represent less than 1% of the population. Crazy.
< 0,5%
We will have a better idea of that soon enough. North Dakota is over 6%, and case and deaths are both rising fast. If it is 10x, that means 60% have had it already, and by the time 8% are reported to have had it, 80% really would have, and the herd immunity threshold would be reached. If the number of cases keeps rising past 8%, we’ll know that the 10x number is wrong.
People work in jobs that they have an affinity for and have the best cost/benefit ratio, as they understand it.
People who were willing to accept the cost/benefit ratio of working in health-care during a non-pandemic, find that the cost/benefit ratio during a pandemic has drastically changed.
Few people go into a job with the understanding that they are placing themselves and people they care about in jeopardy. It is unrealistic to expect the health-care system to remain fully-staffed in an extended time of new, unexpected risk.
Futher, it is extemely demoralizing for the health-care workers to know that at least half the population dismisses even the most basic public health practices.
So, yes, there may be rooms–will there be workers?
It happens in big epidemics. Some health givers just can’t take it. I am not putting them down in any way because none of us knows what we would do in similar situations. It can be terrifying for a health worker. In the 1918 Flu which was much much worse than this one, the government would officially draft people with prior experience to man the hospitals. There was a war on so if you declined you went to jail which was also full of the sick and dying. It was a very simple solution to the problem.
I heard anecdotally that roughly 20% of the dentists in the country are taking early retirement or getting out of dentistry completely. I expect the number of dental hygienists taking a sabbatical is even higher….
Other than care workers and doctors and nurses taking care of patients already diagnosed with COVID, my job is one of the riskiest…yet I have only heard of one instance of a dental office in my entire state (population 28 million) that has had to close because someone got COVID…and it wasn’t clear it happened at work.
That’s a testament to good infection control, and it proves well enough to me…that good infection control goes a long way in preventing spread of COVID.
Some hospitals are giving sign-on bonuses to doctors and nurses. Unless it is enough to retire soon, it probably isn’t enough.
I am curious to see if anyone has stats on this. I am sure that some want to quit but those are very good-paying jobs. I imagine that the strategy would be to quit your job, wait till the epidemic is over and then come back in.
Yeah, there may be lots of openings then–early retirements, deaths, disabilities…
How many doctors have died? How many nurses? Give me the data.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/hundreds-of-healthcare-workers-have-died-from-covid-19-this-doctor-is-honoring-them#Personal-sacrifice,-emotional-strain
Time to bring back the nuns?
O wait, nobody is eligible…
Virginity is not a requirement to be a nun.
Thank you for that. Please check my math. According to her figure the death rate among health worker who have contracted the virus is .0071%. It is .00436 from the CDC’s figures. These figures are way below that of the general population who contracted the virus which is .96%. This leads me to believe that being a health worker during this epidemic is safer than the general population. Please correct me if I am wrong.
No idea if you’re right or wrong. Like the general public, risk depends on age and complicating conditions.
But for the people in the field, perception is everything.
If you are still fighting inadequate PPE, see lots of people ill, work lots of involuntary over-time taking care of people who have been foolish, worry about exposing your family and friends, and being accused by half the population of various nefarious plots due to exagerating the virus–why wouldn’t you say FU and leave?
Corrected version:
Thank you for that. Please check my math. According to her figure the death rate among health worker who have contracted the virus is .71%. It is .436 from the CDC’s figures. These figures are below that of the general population who contracted the virus which is .96%. This leads me to believe that being a health worker during this epidemic is safer than the general population. Please correct me if I am wrong.
That’s some stinkin’ thinkin’.
As everyone knows, death rates increase with age.
There are damn few nurses in their 70’s and 80’s so the computations you seem to want to make need to be compared with comparable age groups to the health-care worker demographics.
But then you also have to factor in that health care workers working the virus wards WILL get exposed to the illness, and they have families and friends who may be in a vulnerable demographic.
So SAFER? Hell no.
Why don’t you volunteer in a ward?
and fiddly dee to all your chatter
Whats important is that we save the cookies!
“Oreo built a doomsday vault to protect cookies from an asteroid. No, we’re not kidding.”
my favorite comment line: “I’m not a covid expert”
In ND there isn’t a lack of space or equipment, it is a staffing issue-
“The doctor echoed other hospital administrators in saying that the crunch at medical centers is due to staff shortages, rather than a lack of physical beds.
Like many other states, North Dakota had a lack of nurses and other workers before the pandemic, and the issue has only been exacerbated in recent months. Trinity spokeswoman Karim Tripodina confirmed that about 140 staff members at the hospital had been in quarantine as of the end of last week, though she was unsure how many staff members are currently on the sidelines.”
Lower level nurses get 15 bucks an hour. Who’s gonna play covid roulette day in and day out for that?
Wow! That’s what your average nurse in France makes!
Because the seasonal fluctuation correlates exactly with absolute humidity which is pretty low in ND right now.
Exactly. Covid spreads all the time, but when the humidity is low, it obviously spreads incredibly fast.
The staffing crunch existed before this year, but it has been exacerbated by quarantines. That said, it seems likely that some people decided to retire or find other work.
Indeed the humidity would have been low last April in North Dakota, but there were not yet many cases in North Dakota at the time. Now there are, and now it is spreading fast. In dry air the water evaporates, leaving the virus airborne, and it can travel a lot further. I try to keep my customer service area at 40-50% to reduce transmission.
This was going to happen sooner or later. It’s extremely infectious. The idea was to not overwhelm the medical system. Or to lesson the overwhelming. I think so far, the world has done a pretty good job.
“So far” only gets you so far…
At some point “so far” becomes “over”.
More granularity about the underlying causes for patient admissions is needed. A case is not a case until one is hospitalized, IMHO. Also critical to be aware that Medical Authorities continue to ban/ignore treatments which have been shown to reduce hospital admissions, i.e. Ivermectin/zinc/antibiotic bundle. And what about the role of private equity in taking ownership of rural hospitals and slashing number of ICU beds? Hospital admissions always increase this type of year. How much of these admissions are the result of spiritual exhaustion and despair? No pcr test for that unfortunately.
Thanks, Dr. Rub. Where are you in the “market solutions” debate?
I would tend to guess that no-one (read ZERO) is entering the hospital as a covid patient to get spirtual succor.
what’s sad is they keep touting the TOTAL NUMBERS not today’s
so what if 200,000 died
how many since Oct 1(like 30 day running avg)
but NOOOOOOOO – and how many total deaths(Not over 70)
rates would make populous ANGRY at what they’ve done to economy
I’m ready to foreclose on liberal and they’ll soon find out real cost
How can that be? It’s November 5. The election was two days ago. The media is just pushing this hoax to hurt the president elect…
How do you get the word out that LERONLIMAB is a safe Effacious therapy for Covid-19. Phase 2 trial just showed that after 3 days viral load was eliminated! This will save DEATHS! This is a David vs Goliath in the battle with Remdesivir. Mish, can you help?
…By day 30 after initial dosing, 17/23 were recovered, 2/23 were still hospitalized, and 4/23 had died. Of the 7 intubated at baseline, 4/7 were fully recovered off oxygen, 2/7 were still hospitalized, and 1/7 had died…
Any speculation on why an anti-HIV antibody would work?
color me sceptical
I suggest contacting Dr Chris Martenson, PhD, at PeakProsperity.com. Thanks and good luck.
This is more complicated than a single variable, although I do agree that we are getting better at treating covid, and so we would expect a decrease in mortality.
But back in April:
We didn’t have enough tests, so we don’t know the full scale of infections. Higher detection of mild cases would push the CFR down.
Hospitals, particularly in NYC, were crushed, leading to a CFR cliff and much higher mortality.
The hospital ship Comfort and the army field hospital that were sent to New York to expand bed capacity, went largely unused.
It is difficult to claim that hospitals in New York were “crushed”.
Not really.
Eventually it was opened up to covid patients but not many were transferred DESPITE the NYC hospitals being crushed.
That’s interesting. You would expect the death rate to be continuously declining as we learn to treat it. But instead, look how low the death rate was before that big bulge at 130-220. Do bulges like that happen simply because the case volume is testing the limits of the healthcare system?
If so, then charts like this should be front and center, along with maybe an overly of hospital utilization capacity, to motivate people during this upcoming seasonal period.
The bulge is just the virus as it reaches more people it runs into more of those who extremely susceptible to dying. As this susceptible either dies out or more likely, take measures to protect themselves the virus is left with infecting the population that is more resistant thus the death rate falls back down and stabilises.
Cases are not normally defined or diagnosed in terms of PCR-test with CTs of 40×.
Normally they are identified on the basis of symptoms when people present for medical treatment where PCT-tests are used to disambiguate symptoms, and anything with a CT >32 is considered unreliable. PCR tests are not a diagnostic criteria.
Also something that doesn’t happen for milder cases when the hospital system is getting crushed.
In NYC in April they sent covid cases back home unless they were serious enough.
Although really I have to think the even MD diagnoses will come down to the PCR test.
They also sent them “home” to long term care facilities, creating a mass exposure to the most vulnerable.
Why Covid kills some people. not others, by a lung doctor:
I’m not a Covid-19 skeptic, but here’s something to consider. A company I follow, ACC, that rents houses to students (a possible buy too, gives 5% dividend).
Here is what they report on Covid-19, and keep in mind young people socialize so they are at risk: “For the 2020/2021 academic year, ACC realized 97% rental collections of its total leases, as of September, up from the 93.7% realized in the June quarter. Residents reported 1,500 positive Covid-19 cases, or only 1.7% of the trust’s total occupied beds. As of late October, there are only 110 active cases, or 0.1% of the trust’s total occupied beds. Even in the states with higher Covid-19 incidents, the trust is not seeing any major rise among its residents.”
This data was after the ‘second wave’ not the current ‘third wave’ but still, it makes you wonder whether perhaps Covid-19 is over-rated as a threat? Keep in mind: active cases are not total cases, so any any one time only about (roughly) a months worth of active C-19 cases are active, or, given today’s record high ‘third wave’: 75k avg infected people x 30 days = 2.2M infected people / 330M people in the USA = 0.7% or 7 people out of 1000, or, “not that many”
There’s still a small but steady stream of death, and since the majority of cases now are people 40 and under, more young people are at risk for serious morbidity/mortality, even if the population numbers are fairly low.
Even here where the numbers are good (infection rate of about 6/100K population, we always have people in the hospital and we always have people on ventilators.
Asymptomatic people can be super-spreaders….that is a fact. When the hospitals get full and there aren’t enough ventilators…the death rates will go way up. that’s how this works,
Not a third wave. In the US all flu epidemics have a double hump. The “waves” simply correspond to normal seasonal fluctuations in absolute humidity.
The next 2-1/2 months will be painful for the economy and the health of the population.
The guy at the top has instituted such a top-down structure (I alone can fix it) that the various agencies that should be mobilized to address this crisis are frozen into inaction without direction. The guy at the top has already spent the entire crisis minimizing it and standing in the way of effective public health policy and will be distracted for the next month or so addressing various conspiracies and lawsuits. And given his vindictive nature, it is certain that there will be a distinct slant to his response.
My guess is that the federal leadership and response will be even more absent.
Fire Faucci?
Trump has also signed an executive order that reclassifies a lot of federal employees in such a way that he can fire them at will.
Non zero chance he will scorch the agency earth on the way out.
“Guy at the top..top down structure..”
Do you mean this guy
“In the beginning God created the heaven and earh.”
This brings up a good question… what will Trump do until Jan17th?
a. Status quo – keep extending the federal emergency
b. End the order and let state fend for themselves
c. Other?
I thought it was going to disappear on Novemebr 4–that’s what Trump said…
Who???
The way the pattern is developing seems to indicate it might be related to the seasonal change and the onset of cold weather, rather than any particular behavior.
The Midwest is about to be completely gobsmacked, or already is in some places.
Since the only thing that we can do that works is to (properly) wear a mask…and a real one, not some paper thin bandana…and to practice hand washing and using hand sanitizer…and social distancing……. EVERYONE should be doing that…..and if somebody around you isn’t, you should stay the hell away from them
Lockdowns suck, we can all agree on that…….the best way to avoid lockdowns is to practice reasonable public health measures, and avoid irresponsible crowd behavior and bars.I think one reason our numbers are still good here is because the bars are still closed. I feel for the people in the hospitality industry…but bars are super-spreaders.
Here’s a fun thought: The bulk (80%) of TESTED cases are mild to asymptomatic, so there are millions and millions of people who either thought they had seasonal allergies or something, or never felt sick at all.
Like….exactly what does that prove?
If you get it, it’s a roll of the dice…..and you might be one of the rare cases that goes tits up struggling for your last breath.
Most of us probably have at least 1 strand of it in us somewhere. The challenge is trying to get the authorities to mandate a pcr test with 60 cycles, that way, BOOM, Everyone tests positive and then we can get back to dying in droves from lifestyle related diseases.
If you’re young, that is even more true for influenza.
It’s such a tragedy that the anti-lockdown group was also so anti mask.
If you want to open up business, you should be pro-mask. Masks (and other mitigation tactics) allow you to avoid locking everything down and still maintain reasonable safety.
The problem is some businesses rely on activities that can’t reasonable be done masked. Bars and dine in restaurants, primarily.
Can the maskers share the formula that shows the reduction of spread based on compliance levels? If masks work they should have known % reduction of spread +/- a margin of error, then that can be calculated across a population based on compliance – that is how science works.
But, no all we hear is it works without any data or references to lab studies, not RCTs. I can find more examples where spread increased post mask order, than it decreased. No, RCT shows a clear benefit of any mask with the exception of N95s. At best from the RCTs, I can see it helping if you are sick (but can’t give a % range) and in HC settings with proper use – handwashing+mask+gloves.
I like the JP route, wear a mask if you are sick even the mildest of symptoms (no local/national orders), distance and practice 10x better hand hygiene.
I think maybe you’re not looking hard enough. There are studies.
Can’t edit so I’ll reply to myself, but even if you think that only N95s are effective, we should simply increase the mask requirements until we find something effective. I imagine KF94s would work here too.
Which is right? Who knows? Neither are an RCT
I look at RCTs, this analysis from the CDC (with links to all the source RCTs) shows very little impact from masks outside of N95 and even those have to be used correctly. Almost nothing has been done on cloth, but this one did look at cloth vs surgical masks – not good. But it did NOT have a no mask control arm – sadly.
CDC – https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article?fbclid=IwAR2V1hPqN0WKb2kXVExP_1UE9ARvru6mtPZvZN0w1jx0S3l3fXLhxMP_bXs
Cloth – https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/4/e006577
PS – I was the “guy” wearing masks in Jan / Feb, after I was told it was not recommended by health leaders in March – I read the research and felt they were right. Then the flip in June, had very little new science other than lab studies or observational studies. Which is the equivalent of taking the new C19 vaccine before any safety trails.
I can’t see how there would ever be a RCT on mask use for covid. I would think there would be serious ethical concerns about doing something like that, but maybe I’m not considering all the possibilities.
The CDC advice against mask use is regrettable, maybe due in part to concern about a run on masks which were desperately needed by medical personnel, and partially because they didn’t understand that covid could be spread by asymptomatic carriers. If you think that only symptomatic people are contagious, recommending that only sick people wear masks is not a horrible idea in a mask shortage.
Regardless I think we can all agree that N95s work, and I see no reason why we can’t make enough so that everyone can wear one.
Louis–you seem to think that a rational discussion can be had about these things. It’s been going on since last spring, and most of the anti-mask, anti-distancing, “its no worse than the flu”, continue with the same objections in a more subtle form.
There are countries who whave managed to contain the virus, but apparently American exceptionalism means that we can’t follow those places–we have to tread our own messy, bloody way in the world where half of our population has been brainwashed into the “hoax” mindset.
It really is ironic that all of these apprently hard-nosed capitalism fans have torn-down an effective public health response could have really reduced the spread and decreased the economic fallout. We have trashed our economy because masks are a sign of liberalism and things like the shiny object of opening of bars was prioritized above re-opening schools. Most of the months since the beginning have been wasted since the top-down direction with respect to the virus has been “it will go away by itself”.
The leadership for the presidential panel on the virus haven’t attended meetings for months, and there is no hope of a new direction in the remainder of this administrations term.
It’s a criminal derelection of duty on the part of the US leadership.
And don’t fall for the “CDC said don’t wear masks”. They were to be reserved for health-care workers. Well, where the ‘eff is the ramped up production of masks in the next 9 months? No where–because of our incompetent and viciously ignorant leader who made masks a political signifier. And just because you were told Santa and the Easter Bunny were real at the beginning of your life, you still hold on to that belief? Why should you hold onto the beliefs early on in the course of the virus? be an adult, change with the increased evidence.
Times change, circumstances change, evidence increases. It’s a dumb argument. And regardless of the accumulated evidence, there will be always, “but this person said”, quoting the outlier 1% as sufficient to refuting the 99%
Aye, For in that sleep of death what dreams may come
When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,
Must give us pause.
Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time;
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player,
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage,
And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
The Bard of Avon was a nihilist. Nothing new under the sun.
Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
Definitely nothing is new under the sun.
It’s the minks…in Denmark. Just sayin’.
So how many deaths can be avoided over time (say 10 years) by masking?
By the way, it’s been shown conclusively that the (seasonal) waxing and waning of respiratory viruses correlates exactly to absolute humidity.
Hopefully I can avoid at least one death by masking…..mine.
And preferably , I’d really, really like to not spread COVID from one patient to another.
We shall see, because I plan to keep treating patients.
People are not stats….they are living breathing humans with wives and kids and co-workers.
All this cold-blooded armchair analysis by people who might or might not even have skin in the game is a little off-putting to me. We have to do the best we can, and masks help, no matter how many ZH articles say they don’t.
HAMLET
Keeps wassail, and the swaggering up-spring reels;
And, as he drains his draughts of Rhenish down,
The kettle-drum and trumpet thus bray out
The triumph of his pledge.
HORATIO
Is it a custom?
HAMLET
Ay, marry, is’t:
But to my mind, though I am native here
And to the manner born, it is a custom
More honour’d in the breach than the observance.
This heavy-headed revel east and west
Makes us traduced and tax’d of other nations:
They clepe us drunkards, and with swinish phrase
Soil our addition; and indeed it takes
From our achievements, though perform’d at height,
The pith and marrow of our attribute.
So, oft it chances in particular men,
This me as an American living in France see what the French see in all this.
There is a tide in the affairs of men
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.
Shakespeare on investing……and one of my personal mantras…..lol
Also…I’m a little jealous of you living in France. Not Othello level jealous…but just a little.
My wife is French and we are retired. Many years ago I accepted a job that paid very well and so I stayed. Our kids went to college in the States, got married and decided to stay there and they are happy with their decision.Normally we spend four months in the US every year so it works out. I am a history freak so this is a good place to be. The food isn’t bad either.
We’ve only been once but it was with an artist friend and eight of her favorite Texas patrons. A very lovely barge cruise in the Alsace-Lorraine.
We spent a week on the Rhine-Marne Canal and drank a hundred bottles of wine…I hope to return someday after this COVID thing is over.
Did you check out Strasbourg? My wife is from Brittany. The coast is amazing but France has so many beautiful places it’s hard to choose. In my job I travelled all over Europe and I always scheduled time to visit the special spots. That being said I see myself as American and always will.
We did get to spend some time in Strasbourg, saw the Palais Rohan……and went to Luneville and saw Stanislaws palace. Visited the Chagall Window in Metz and the Bronze Age museum there.
My friend did some very nice prints of the tunnel at the top of the locks on the canal.
I have one in my living room. Let me see….
And I am very happy to meet another lover of the Bard.
“Hell is empty and all the devils are here.”
― William Shakespeare, The Tempest
If I could go back and start over, I’d spend more time on Shakespeare. I read that fairly recent book about his life, but so little is known, really, about the man…..much is a mystery…..but almost every cliche we use is somewhere there in his work. Most people quote him all the time and don’t even realize it.
My last name is the same as that bad Victorian poet who lies beside Byron in Westminster Abbey…..poetry and scholarship run in my family along with the mental illness and alcoholism…..hehehe.