Leaving aside the wisdom of doing what Trump says, how easy or hard would it be to fulfill his campaign promise?
Challenges Ahead
Assume Trump wins. The Wall Street Journal discusses the question What Can Trump Deliver on Illegal Migration?
We know Donald Trump can talk the talk on illegal migration. The question is what he would be able to deliver in a second term.
In 2016 Trump vowed to wall off the southern border and send the bill to Mexico. It didn’t happen. Now Mr. Trump is promising to “carry out the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.”
Daniel Di Martino, a native of Venezuela who follows the economics of migration at the Manhattan Institute, is skeptical. “Twenty years ago, 90% of the people arriving were Mexican,” Mr. Di Martino says. “Today, maybe two-thirds are not Mexican. It’s easier to send back Mexicans. It’s not so easy to send back others. You can’t send to Mexico people who are not Mexican.
“Nobody who has a pending immigration court date can be deported until their case is resolved through the immigration courts,” Mr. Di Martino says. “And the people who have dates are the recent people who came under Biden.” Which means that if Mr. Trump deports anybody, it’s likely to be the far more sympathetic cases who arrived decades ago, stayed out of trouble, put down roots and may now have American spouses and children.
Mr. Trump might have designs on reviving “Remain in Mexico” protocols, under which some non-Mexican asylum seekers were forced back across the border and housed in makeshift encampments while their claims were adjudicated. But Mexico has taken a more authoritarian turn since Mr. Trump left office, and it’s uncertain whether the new government’s judicial reforms would accommodate such a policy. Mr. Trump likewise may try to reinstate Title 42, which prevented migrants from applying for asylum during Covid. But that was an emergency measure, and bringing it back might not survive a court challenge now that the health scare has ended.
The border is a priority for voters this year, and polling consistently has shown that they trust Donald Trump far more than Kamala Harris to handle the issue. If Mr. Trump is elected to a second term, the current administration’s disastrous migrant policies will have played an outsize role. No one expects Mr. Trump to dial down his grandiose deportation rhetoric between now and the election, but if he wins, reality will set in at some point. Voters deserve to know what is and isn’t doable on day one.
Trump’s Pledge
“As soon as I take the oath of office, I will terminate every open border policy of the Biden administration and begin the largest deportation operation in American history.”
Link to Trump Video if Tweet does not display.
More Roadblocks
The article failed to mention sanctuary cities and the cost of rounding everyone up.
Many of my readers have the delusional idea that all Trump has to do is snap his fingers.
But where does the money come from? The policies?
A lot of people will go home if they can’t work for less than minimum wage in our own country,” said J. D. Vance in a debate with Walz.
That’s absurd because if you increase wages you increase the incentive to come. But that’s mainly a preventative issue, not a deportation issue, although Vance seems to think 20 percent would leave voluntarily. What about the other 80 percent?
Vance wants to make it illegal to hire illegal immigrants. That backfired in Florida but assume it happens. How?
Policies and the money to enforce them and round up immigrants would come from Congress.
I suppose if Republicans get a clean sweep of enough magnitude, it would be possible, but would every Republican but two (assuming a 51-49 split) back a measure to deport millions? Criminals yes, but million en masse, no.
And although Republicans could ram though one spending bill, any nonfinancial matters would be subject to filibuster.
Case Study: The Impact of Senate Bill 1718 on Florida
Florida recently implemented legislation targeting undocumented immigrants, with repercussions that surprised even the lawmakers who had supported it—and illustrate that, inevitably, hardline immigration enforcement measures will have negative economic impacts on U.S. citizens.
In May 2023, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed Senate Bill 1718 into law. SB 1718 requires private businesses with 25 or more employees to use the federal E-Verify database to screen new workers; makes it a felony to transport an undocumented immigrant into the state or for an undocumented immigrant to use a false ID to obtain work; and prohibits undocumented immigrants from driving with an out-of-state license, among other provisions.
Even before the law went into effect that July, undocumented immigrants began moving out of state, afraid and unable to work. Within months, farmers, builders, restaurants, hotels, and other businesses in the state complained of worker shortages. Even people with legal work authorization moved, worried for their undocumented family members.
“They’re just picking up and leaving to a state where they’re more friendly towards migrants, where they don’t have to be looking over their shoulder every 10 seconds and saying, ‘Look, I’m going … to be deported,’” Greg Batista, owner of G. Batista Engineering & Construction, told the Tampa Bay Times.
Construction projects stalled, fruit rotted in the fields, hotels and restaurants fired staff and put up “Help Wanted” signs. Rental units were left empty, and businesses lost customers. Walt Disney World had trouble finding cast members. State representatives who had themselves supported the legislation publicly appealed to immigrants not to leave.
Florida’s experience provides a small peek into how a national mass deportation of undocumented immigrants would have more significant impact across states and economic sectors in the U.S. economy. While Florida is home to a higher share of undocumented immigrants than most states—five percent compared with the national average of 3.3 percent—its outsized reliance on undocumented immigrant workers is not atypical.
What Would Trump’s Mass Deportation of Immigrants Cost?
On October 15, I asked What Would Trump’s Mass Deportation of Immigrants Cost?
The Middle Ground
We need sensible immigration policy. Mass deportation of 10 to 15 million immigrants (or even 6 million) is not sensible.
Those who believe US citizens will clean hotel rooms and provide construction labor in the hot sun at a reasonable (if any) cost are crazy.
It’s a dirty, not-so-secret, fact that red state and blue state alike depend on migrant labor for construction projects, hotels, cooking and cleaning jobs etc.
I suggest we deport criminals, have a reasonable amnesty program for hard working immigrants who have been here for years, and mostly close the border using the military if necessary.
Future immigration should be based on our genuine needs.
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On September 26, I commented Trump Claims Tariffs Will Reduce the Trade Deficit. Let’s Fact Check.
Trump proposes 60 percent tariffs on China. Would that reduce the trade deficit? Where? How?
Critical Materials Risk Assessment by the US Department of Energy
Please consider a Critical Materials Risk Assessment by the US Department of Energy
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Nearly all of them are mined or refined in China. Yet Biden just blocked production in the US.
So, how might China respond to 60 percent tariffs?
I wish with an article like this the author would provide broader information than the current situation. For instance I understand president Eisenhower deported many illegals. How did he do it?
Also, I think the coming recession will get rid of many of them. Notice that Florida’s policies worked they left. If the entire country did that they would leave hungry people do not stand still.
A path for legal migration would hence be best. job seekers could post how many immigrants they need. Then test those immigrants on laws and have them show a criminal history and tax compliance in their birth country and let them in. it should be simple and faster. then put them on a temporary admission to see if they comply with local laws and taxes. a year or two later, grant them a green card. of course also enforce the border. and get rid of minimum wage, which creates job shortage. As an economy grows, everyone in it grows with it.
Mish says “Those who believe US citizens will clean hotel rooms and provide construction labor in the hot sun at a reasonable (if any) cost are crazy.”
He is the one who is crazy. What he means by reasonable is wages at or below minimum wage. There are plenty of US Citizens who will do that work. He and others in favor of mass illegal immigration just wants slave labor.
There is a visa program for agricultural workers but it only issues about 140,000 visas a year because farmers who use this program have to pay prevailing wages, have workers compensation insurance, pay taxes and provide meals and housing if the workers stay more than 24 hours in the country. The only reason for hiring illegals is to avoid paying prevailing wages, workers compensation insurance and taxes.
Obama deported 3 million illegals during his 8 years and apparently had very little problem doing it. The MSM and liberals didn’t say much about it. Trump can just follow the policies and procedures Obama set up and used very effectively.
So why didn’t he do that before?
No problem Mish. Declare martial law and have the 1.5 million standing military along with another million NGs round up twenty million illegals and drop them off on the Mexican side of the walled border for the indigenous drug cartels or Mexican army to traffic back to their home countries or plantations via the Mexican rail lines. It’s a win win. Doubtless a billion deducted/diverted from the Ukraine fiasco can be easily diverted to the Mexican president as an offer to good to refuse when money makes the world go ’round and ’round.
I’m not sure how possible it is to deport millions of people. What could be done is to deny citizenship to children of illegals, or free health care, etc. Children of diplomats born in the US are not considered citizens, since citizenship is given only to people born ‘under the authority of the US’ or words to that effect. I would imagine illegals are not ‘under the authority’ if diplomats aren’t.
You actually understand correctly.
Authority to use Military Force on US population is also legal (Insurrection Act as used in LA 1992).
Dang MSM polluting most people but not us!
JD Vance is obviously the more intelligent one on the MAGA ticket. Vance knows that Trump’s deportation thinking is pure BS. Therefore, he contradicts Trump publicly on this topic, which is quite a thing to do inside the MAGA cult. My guess is that if Trump wins, Vance will depose of old/sick Trump within six months.
Trump’s cult base, the racist wing of the GOP and the law and order wing is what Trump is appealing to. The Trumplicans that support the Donald that are plutocrats, hence his donor base are not in favor restricting illegal immigrant flows.
Generation Y & Z are not interested at earning 15 to 20 bucks an hour to perform what they perceive as demeaning work.
If the Donald implements his immigration policies that are MAGA supported, inflation will rise even more and GDP, GDI will enter recession territory.
Reagan was the last president that signed immigration reform into law.
With the exception of putting the military at the border to prevent illegal immigration, I agree with Mish.
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon.
Prices will adjust (up/down); living standards will vary as robots are developed to automate anything not valued at >min wage like lettuce and strawberry picking.
You may pay 0.50-1.00 per pound of hand-picked goods. It’ll be saved 10X over in welfare/healthcare. Maybe drywall labor goes up so hold off on deportation until Florida is rebuilt.
Monetary policy has an outsized effect so we agree. However, removing 11 – 12 million workers from a total employment population of 168 million will reduce supply approximately 6.7%. Prices for labor go up or businesses close which in the case of the latter will also increase prices due to less competition. An exacerbated stagflation event on the supply side for labor or the supply side for goods/services occurs.
Are those in the country illegally allowed to work? Are all 11 million actually working? If they are, think about how much is Not going into social security.
Per Pew it is 8.3M working or looking for work.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us/#:~:text=Unauthorized%20immigrants%20in%20the%20labor,be%20in%20the%20labor%20force.
The 8.3 translates into 4.9% of the workforce.
Aggregate demand, due to loss of 11-12M workers, will then drop thus forcing prices down to “clear” various markets. Inflation will net to zero **if** money supply is not increased.
Conventional wisdom is that supply shortages (oil, labor, etc) cause inflation; but conventional wisdom is wrong. Shortages might manifest inflation but the cause remains increased money supply (velocity of money is in play too). The lags are difficult to predict (velocity again) so cause/effect are hard to separate in the real world (theory world is easier). Sorry, I don’t have a decent reference … textbooks/papers still argue the topic.
If the supply of labor decreases besides due to gains in productivity output also decreases. If the supply of business is reduced therefore less competition prices will go up unless regulations restricting price increases are implemented or rationing.
11M illegals deported will not reduce AD enough to make a difference. The illegals live in the shadows. They keep their head down. If all of the illegal immigrants that are working or looking for work were deported their portion of spending into the economy would reduce AD by approximately $145B and I am being generous. In a $28.8T economy the loss in AD is a rounding error.
Correction: Instead of $145B it should be $293B but still only a diminution of 1% to GDP.
In the US today the rentier, oligopoly, monopsony and financialization economic system is predominant. This is the supply side of services and goods. There is no competition to speak of. The cartels, moreover legally collude through 3rd party marketing services that inform their clients through competitors voluntarily offering their pricing to the 3rd party so hotels, for example, know what each other are charging their customers for rooms.
The reopening of the Covid 19 economy and subsequent profits reported by the FED are prima facia.
There is a threshold to where the bow breaks but that is worldwide depression conflagration.
I think we’re cooked here … catch you on some other thread!
“…and begin the largest deportation operation in American history.”
Has America ever carried out a meaningfully large “deportation operation”?
IOW: What would “largest” even mean?
Oh Yeah: “Operation Wetback” under Eisenhower.
Around 3,000,000 left…
…Well, that’s a pretty high target to beat. Corrected for population even higher….
Of course; that “operation” didn’t succeed at anything other than growing government and wasting resources either….
But then again, Einstein never really was wrong about much. Stupidity included.
And heck, that failure even happened at a time when there were still some; however faint; traces of discernible intellect left among America’s ruling classes. As opposed to now, when there is a cold, hard none.
Raise the minimum wage of illegals, and h1b1 employees to an enforceable $250 an hour. E- verify will become very popular quick. Won’t cost a dime, and cheapskate employers will scatter like roaches when the light is turned on
On the question of cost, you’re overlooking the possibility that some nice African state like Rwanda might pay us for shipping over cheap indentured labor.
Or to put it in terms pious people might grasp, the risk of trespassing should accrue to the trespasser, not to the property owner.
The unmanageable spike in ILEGALS is taxing budget here and in Europe – https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/europes-current-economy/return-hubs-brussels-attempting-damage-control-over-migrant-crisis/.
We can’t afford not to deport as many as possible, especially the known terrorist and criminals that have just started to reek havoc on innocent citizens. Claw back the money from Ukraine (including selling the yachts and villas of the Ukrainian grifters) to pay for it. Any increase in cost necessary to attract workers will be offset by savings from not paying the ILLEGALS.
A bigger issue is allowing foreigners into our military and law enforcement. DoD Directive 5240.01 now grants the US military the authority to assist in domestic law enforcement activities, including the use of lethal force against US citizens. The definitions of “national security threat” and “imminent threats” has been expanded to essentially rescind the Posse Comitatus Act. The Nutjobs have learned from history that in order to get your military to fire on their own citizens, you must use foreigners who have no allegiance to the country.
I just don’t understand why this is so hard. They won’t come if there is no money. Like a drug dealing relationship,don’t punish the user go for the dealer. If you FINE an employer 50,000 dollars for every illegal employed without a work permit or green card. The problem stops. The dirty secret is we let them in and then corporations pay them cash and they send the money home. Or for any transaction that sends money abroad, charge 50% tax. Just kill the market for illegal labor. Offer agriculure visiting labor permits, charge a small amount for temporary healthcare and some temp benefits like childcare and terminate the relationship when season is done. After 10 years of this cycle, they can apply for green card
You and I both know the problem isn’t a legislative issue, it’s a corporate lobby issue.
It’s not a cost issue. It’s an issue of forcing corporations to bow to the will of the people.
Nice post!
Um, Bitcoin? They can buy it at some supermarkets, which could be taxed, or under the table–impossible to collect tax.
The work permit is the best idea, but it means every person seeking work, or working, needs to ‘prove’ legal status. Like voting, that would be racist, in some states.
People in a country illegally are NOT “immigrants”, and in large numbers they’re invaders.
Be honest about that. Words have meaning, and illegal entry is not immigration any more than auto theft is a taxi service.
Pass a federal law mandating that private businesses with 25 or more employees use the federal E-Verify database to screen new workers. Then, channeling RINO Mitt Romney, they self-deport.
Why is 25 the magic number? Illegal immigrants can operate as owner-businesses and NOT pay a cent in taxes.
They can ride on the roof of Mitt’s car on vacation.
It would only be as hard as getting national e-verify to become the law of the land and to make sure it has REAL teeth. Would that be easy? Hell no it won’t be, but this one law would lead to the self-deportation of millions of illegals.
A second law that ends sanctuary cities & withholds ALL non-SS & non-Medicare / Medicaid federal monies for cities that don’t comply would take care of the rest.
Oh, and unleash ICE and let them do their jobs. Remind local governments that enforcement of immigration status is ICE’s job and the local courts, DAs & cops are subject to being jailed if they don’t comply with federal law.
Boom! Done!
It presumes e-verify actually works. It is only as good as the employees who run it. BTW, it is housed in the Department of Homeland Security–the same department controlling the southern border. AND WE KNOW HOW THAT WORKS depending on the person in charge.
I suggest making it a corporation issuing work permits, with remuneration based on fees collected.
Homeland Security also oversees the Secret Service. ‘Nuff said.
I have been trying to get my mother in law to visit her daughter and grand children since the beginning of COVID. Cannot get a tourist visa.
She has no criminal background just been a mom most of her adult life.
And you want to give amnesty to millions here illegally?
Thats BS!
Deport them, I think it can be done you just got to get creative. I agree very expensive within our current framework we are not set up for such actions we need to modify our normal process
This is war, a 3 yr Directive illegals have no rights (legal) and put a bounty on them 5k normal 10k criminals they will be bringing them to you by the dozens.
And build a real wall not an oversized fence.
How difficult? Impossible, but you are missing the point. Trump is doing two things by saying he will deport millions of illegals. He is contrasting his border policy with Kamala’s border policy and actually curbing illegal immigration by making people think twice before breaking into our country.
Trump is acting as de facto president since Joe and Kamala refuse to do their job.
You can tell from the comments that there are not many attorneys on this forum (although I’m not one either)
Mish, of course you’re right that Trump is gaslighting people. It’s physically impossible to keep all non-citizens from ‘visiting’ the country, whether it be fording the Rio Grande River or crossing the border to literally visit (and then staying illegally) by car or plane.
So this then becomes a local issue. There are not federal ICE agents in every town in America. I don’t live in a ‘sanctuary city’ but I don’t want my local taxes to go up to have police officers (without federal authority) to go door to door or business to business trying to verify the ID of every person in the city (talk about expensive). Then even if someone is found here illegally, do we pay locally to house them in jail before a federal agent is summoned to house and take them to federal court (we have due process here to determine residency status) before paying to physically transport them back to another country halfway around the world.
I’m not saying I’m against enforcing the federal laws we have. But to Mish’s point, it’s easy to say do it (no matter the cost), but the cost is uneven and spread out amongst us and definitely not as easy to coordinate or actually pull off as “Deport them all” makes it seem
Follow the Nike slogan: Just Do It!
It’s already a local issue. Became one when the Fed. govt. failed to help Texas with its border problems.
Republicans left wisdom on the wayside on 1/6/2021 and never looked back.
“Whatever I may have said about President Trump pales in comparison to what JD Vance, Lindsey Graham, and others have said about him,” McConnell said in a statement, “but we are all on the same team now.”
So let’s elect the “stupid” “ill-tempered” “despicable human being” one more time…
and pretend that wouldn’t insane.
Special counsel releases trove of redacted documents in 2020 election subversion case against Trump | CNN Politics
Same team, same page, same batty channel with reruns:
“Another volume contains memos from lawyer John Eastman with a plan for Pence to reject the congressional certification of the 2020 election. The volume also includes a public statement Trump released the night before January 6 claiming he and Pence were on the same page about the congressional certification.”
Right, because a vote of Comrade Kamala makes all the sense in the world until it doesn’t. You’re acting like the Dems right before the Trump – Biden debate, when everyone was pretending Brandon still had sufficient brain function to be president.
US citizens will do the jobs when they are faced with starving to death. Cut off ALL welfare after 12 months.
I know US citizens will build houses for tons of money. That’s for sure.
Problem is: In Idiotopia, they’re not allowed to. Neither are “illegals”, who could otherwise build both themselves; and 3 natives; a livable house in something like the first year they were here.
Building a house which doesn’t fall down, takes some competence, after all. And, in Idiotopia, only the most singularly stupid and incompetent; who can not build neither houses nor anything else hence are instead relegated to government makework barring those who can from doing so; are allowed to receive the wealth that the government steals from anyone daring to engage in displays of competence.
The Economic Migrants would have to simply be required to report to local police stations.
There would be no cost.
Unless the Economic Migrants are law breakers !
“Please report to the local police station.”
If that is intended sarcasm, as it appears, that’s pretty funny.
Thanks for the biased WSJ article.
The bottom line is that deportation is what the far majority of people want. When the will of the people is squarely behind it, you can’t hide behind concocted court cases, corrupt politicians or in sanctuary cities for long.
If the Mish commentors are charitable, look into your Christen charities … they often facilitate migrant travels (in US and outside)… although in Mexico the charities step aside for the gangs.
For example, Samaritan’s Purse has a branch in Columbia helping migration (to US although not stated).
Many conservative legal groups are tax-exempt and working to stem illegal immigration.
And it’s not just the Christian ones like Catholic Charities. Mayorkas himself was a board member of the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society. And everyone in the Catholic Legal Immigration Network, Inc. is Jewish.
http://www.x.com/austerrewyatt1/status/1763008869062623373
“Policies and the money to enforce them and round up immigrants would come from Congress.”
We are sending billions to Ukraine and you are hung-up on where to get the money to enforce existing laws?
Let’s start with having the law enforcers, prosecutors and courts do their jobs. That will cost us exactly ZERO dollars.
First he needs to start with criminals, then those freeloading on welfare.
For the Love of God, how come no administration cannot come up with a work permit program. I’d have the employer pay into some type of healthcare fund. The problem then is Big Business wants us to pay for their welfare while they reap the benefits of slave labor. Also, no families can come over with them. The work permit is just for that recipient. Cause any problems like no insurance, dui, etc, they get their asses kicked back home.
Please stop the hand wringing! We are men, not women, and problems can be solved.
Agree …not hard but ….
Low-skill immigrants, climate change, mass victimhood/grievances all increase the power of the elites — they are lawyers, environmentalists, etc … they are developing a parallel language to English (“define a woman”) … they do not have traditional skills or desire to contribute to traditional society. USA’s overall wealth is funding its own destruction.
Sorry but the argument labeled Construction will stop without illegal workers is Bull Shit.
It takes more then a shovel to Build.
It takes skilled trades to Build. Skilled trades in turn takes years to develop the knowledge that get deployed in the Field.
Someone jumping the fence does not gain the ability to be a productive worker in a year or two.For better or worse learning a Trade is still a hands on deal.
Taught and Learnt from those who are doing it and passing on the technical know how to those coming up behind them.
Unions still offer apprenticeships.
Non Union which is in general the Mom and Pop operations pass on the regional local knowledge by employing younger workers for several years to learn the ropes.
I would add it takes longer to learn how to be a good trade practice Carpenter, Plumber, Electrician then it does to earn a PHD at a university.
It takes seven to eight years to go from a beginner to a stand on your own trades person.
To the downvoters go right on out and sign on that bottom line your life away to the local banker so as to get a Loan.
Then take that 60 to 100,000 and remodel your kitchen.
Am sure you will be quite pleased with results knowing an illegal did the installation.
“Many of my readers have the delusional idea that all Trump has to do is snap his fingers.”
I don’t think that’s true at all. Even the most pro-deportation people know he won’t be able to deport every last illegal, but through a combination of efforts, he could deport some (maybe even a lot), and some is better than none. We need to reverse the flow. Re-implement “Remain in Mexico”, Add stiff penalties (civil and criminal) for hiring an illegal. Tax remittances. Deport known criminals. Quickly hire a lot of adjudicators (need not be judges) to quickly process (mostly spurious) asylum claims. Make failing to report for an asylum hearing a criminal offense that itself warrants immediate expulsion. Collect biometric data for perpetual identification, and make subsequent re-entry a felony with harsh prison terms. Refuse all asylum claims from people who hadn’t claimed asylum in countries closer to their country of origin. There are a lot of tools to use. Dems will fight every one of them. Trump’s first term – ineffective as it was – was still a lot better than under Biden and proved that the flow of illegals could be staunched.
right on. Sentient for HLS!
Add in self-deportation with a plane ticket and a $500 debit card (track the usage; bar usage in US).
Biometics prevents double-dipping. The $500 will stimulate all kinds of economic growth in slum cities.
Jailing is much more expensive than deportation. Border security and an unwelcoming country posture mitigates re-entry.
Like the plane ticket idea. Destination: Tierra del Fuego.
It can’t be that hard. Obama deported 3 million during his 8 years. And, I didn’t hear much about it in the MSM or from liberal politicians.
He didn’t deport 3 mil by the common understanding of the meaning of the word “deport”. Any time they cause someone sneaking in, they just dumped them back on the Mexican side (free to try again a couple hours later) and labeled that a “deportation”-
Are you kidding? Deport is hard? To paraphrase JFK:
But why, some say, deport? Why choose this as our goal? And they may well ask why climb the highest mountain? Why, 35 years ago, fly the Atlantic? Why does Rice play Texas?
We choose to depot. We choose to deport in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too.
Instead of focusing on DEPORTING, maybe focus on how to remove the illegal immigrant’s incentive to stay in the USA.
I don’t know about other readers, but I willingly pay Federal, state, and local taxes on my US and foreign income for the privilege of living here.
Part of the total amount of taxes represents the benefits I derive as a PERMANENT RESIDENT ALIEN. BTW, that category was intended for people who would benefit the USA, and live in the USA, yet could retain citizenship in the ‘home’ country.’ Mine came courtesy of the Speaker of the House, at the time. Some 40+ years, I still have, and use the card–I do not have ‘joint citizenship.’
People come to the USA both legally and illegally. Legal immigrants have waited in line, often for years. If accepted by the US, generally they contribute more to the country and culture than what they derive in benefits.
Very few illegal immigrants are here for political asylum. Instead, they come for your economic rewards, paying little (if anything) for the benefits they receive while here. They are, in fact, leeches. The more you allow them to enter, the more who will come after them. The people who suffer are your citizens near the bottom of the food chain.
The problem can be fixed by requiring the purchase of a work permit, priced to reflect the benefits of living and working in the USA. At a guess, one year of ‘benefits’ would be worth about $10,000.
Work permits must be like passports. It must be produced before receiving payment for ‘work.’ Failure to do so obligates the hiring party to purchase the work permit–automatically for one year.
I just read your comment after I posted mine. Yes! Work permits is what is required, but the dead heads can’t fathom this. I don’t understand what is so complicated about a work permit and establishing guidelines. I do know that Big Business and politicians will sell the country out like they would their mother’s for a quick buck.
Fairly easy and straightforward to deport immigrants.
Although not inexpensive.
More difficult would be finding immigrants he could legally deport.
Not so easy.
Obama managed to find and deport 3 million of them with much of a problem.
So, did Trump continue the practice?
Just go down to your local 7/11 and you will find most of them Or Home Depot
Enforce E Verify & prosecute employers hiring the illegals increasing self deportation. Put Lawfare to good usage. POTUS Chief of Executive Branch. Illegals should not be receiving Government assistance & support. Stop it and start playing hard ball. Shut down Federal government agencies like the Dept of Homeland Security and others enabling it.
The Strangely Empty Politics of Kamala Harrishttps://jacobin.com/2024/10/kamala-harris-election-campaign-strategy
Minimum wage in Pennsylvania is $7.25. Haitian immigrants are happy to work at or not far from that slave wage.
Meanwhile, native born Americans are being laid off from manufacturing jobs in Charleroi where in the very same town companies are hiring immigrants for slave wages.
You would think the lax immigration policy is intentional or something.
The reason why we are the United States of America is because we speak one language – English and subscribe to a variety of American traditions. We have disgracefully allowed illegals and legal immigrants to desecrate our American way and American values. They come here and they want to speak their language from their foreign country, they insist that Americans must provide them with gratuitous benefits, even to the extent that our documents voting, etc., are now in several languages. Let’s get back to who we are– Americans! The flow of illegal aliens over the last four years has pretty much destroyed us. Let’s stop the bleeding!
Sanction NGO’s and the oligarchs that fund illegal alien vacations to the US and confiscate all their assets in the US. This is the first order of business. Second, eliminate all tax payer funded non essential services. All of it. Want PBS, Planned Parenthood, Home For Unwed Trans Mothers and hotels for illegals? Great. It will be funded 100% with private donations.
All this however will not be needed because the economy is going to collapse and when that happens people leave organically just like after the housing bust. The flow of illegals started going in the opposite direction. The problem will take care of itself.
This is obviously a nuanced discussion with many social, legal, and financial ramifications.
I think throwing your hands up asking “who’s going to work if we deport immigrants” is nonsensical – I believe there are many people, especially young men, who are unemployed, or have stopped seeking employment, that may be willing to do the jobs you mention: farming, construction, plumbing, electrical, etc. College application rates are dropping, and with a renewed focus on trade, I believe manual labor can be a fruitful path forward as it once was – Not everyone can or wants to work behind a desk on a computer.
Next, think of the costs the US taxpayers burden caring for illegal immigrants now. Does anyone have the figure for how much has been spent on illegal immigrant housing, healthcare, food, transportation, etc in the last 3 years? I’m confident that money is better spent rounding up criminals and deporting them.
We have the capability to, and should, attract the best talent from around the globe. We should not, under any circumstance, be letting in people who are a net negative for our economy and for our society.
The argument that we won’t be able to fill jobs in construction, agriculture, services etc. unless we have immigrants is basically saying we must always have immigrants. The “solution” to the problem perpetuates the problem as it drives down wages and/or discourages automation.
When will you lefties stop with the “Immigrants” line. They are illegals. If I break into your home and sit down at your table, am I a “dinner guest”?
Raise the minimum wage for illegals and h1b1 workers to an enforceable $250 an hour. E- verify will become popular quick. Cheapskate employers will scatter quick like roaches when the light is turned on.
Put a bounty on dead Mexicans. No bag limit. You saw how fast the physicians intubated influenza patients and harvested the covid bounty. Death penalty for employers of illegal aliens. This is war against an invading army of welfare blood suckers.
Wow. We’d like to see how your basement is decorated
psycho killer on mish’s little blog. how precious. how many dead prostitutes have you buried? i grew up surfing at gilgo beach so i could help you with nice burial spots…………bye bye, you animal.
The big problem is that the U.S. is an empire in decline. A cycle fulfills itself, as it has with all previous empires. Too big to fail, too big to fix.
President Trump had it fixed. Then came Joe & Kamala.
I have been looking for a Vaccine that will blind and deafen me any time a Politician speaks or is quoted in newspaper and the internet. The problem is that I would never see or hear again. I will then apply for Boosters and hand-outs. Cash Printer goes BRRRRRRRR.
kick back and enjoy the surround sound idiocracy. pro tip. democracy works. idiots elect idiots. been this way since ancient greeks invented the republic form of democracy
After his time as potus, trump has a record, based on that there is NO reason to suppose the fellow is a “problem solver”. As you point out this is a complex problem and not simply solved. As to trump, H. L. Mencken sums it up: For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, neat, and wrong. After all is said and done, a hell lot of a lot more is said than done.
H. L. Mencken
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/8/1324
Please see the link above to review the Federal criminal penalties for hiring, harboring, housing or giving aid and comfort in any way to a person in this country without legal authorization.
They are not light and they are not suggestions.
These statutes have been in place for decades.
If any President decides that he wants to make a meaningful effort to rid this nation of illegal aliens, he simply needs to order his Attorney General to begin enforcing these laws and criminal penalties.
The employers of illegals will not be willing to risk a FIVE (5) YEAR FEDERAL PRISON TERM and will terminate illegal employmees fairly quickly.
When that begins to happen, illegals will SELF-DEPORT.
Yes, it will be chaotic. Yes, there will be tears, wailing and gnashing of teeth.
But, WAGES FOR BLUE COLLAR, WORKING AMERICANS WILL RISE DRAMATICALLY.
Yes, there will be inflation. But, tax revenues and incomes will rise enough to offset these costs.
This nation has been strangling it’s working class and poor people for decades.
Millions of illegal, cheap, unskilled laborers that took construction, packing plant, hotel, restaurant and other formerly decent paying jobs and simultaneously outsourcing millions of factory jobs to China, Mexico, India, etc. are the main causes.
Now (for many years actually), even native-born American highly educated tech workers are losing massive numbers of their jobs to insourced tech workers from India, Pakistan, etc. due to Big Tech’s unscrupulous use of H1B visas and other schemes to bring in those workers and chain them to a 5 year visa that is the equivalent of indentured servitude but also allows them to escape from their 2nd or 3rd world home countries and potentially acquire permanent residence here in the U.S.
Let’s give all American citizens a chance to regain those good paying jobs and regain their dignity.
So I say yes, let the constructive chaos begin…
The problem is the US is dependent on a high % of those millions of illegal immigrants. Your lifestyle and economic system requires taking advantage. The food ‘packing’ industry is an example. Your labor force is reluctant to leave the cities, yet the work is not in the cities. Visas are set up for this to happen legally. Incorporate work-permits with prepaid taxes and the economic advantage of hiring an illegal goes away.
Another example, you mention tech workers. The alternative is the tech industries move to the countries with cheap labor. Again, the H1B can be reformulated as a work permit, paid annually to be equal to taxation.
@ Flingel Good points, however you (most everyone) are missing a big piece of the train barreling down the tracks — the future. Billions of dollars are being spent right now in venture capital to robotize and apply AI to do those very jobs. Where’s the money being spent?
1) Agriculture. The farms of the very near future will have a few minimum “laborers”. They will be mostly technology managers AKA the actual farmer or the farmers kids back from college/skilled managers. The ”
holy Grail” in this space is a robotic raspberry picker. It’s been know for years if you can automate raspberry
2) Construction. The amount of money and technology pouring into the building sector is breathtaking. Everything from 3D printed homes, AI factories that ship out modular home components etc. The objective is to MINIMIZE labor and material waste. Traditional “stick building” construction will be a thing of the past in the very near future. How do we know this? Because, the incentive to end 100 yr old building techniques equates to ~ $Trillion dollar rewards.
There’s a saying. “never fight the last war”. Those that say the immigration situation “can’t be fixed” are fighting the last war. The next war involves technology and technology always wins. We will soon have >10-30 Million semi-skilled workers from foreign countries displaced *inside US borders* by a bunch of 23 yr old kids from Stanford armed with $billions in venture capital. It’s happening as we speak.
Sorry. Raspberry picking by robotics has been the one fruit that — if cracked — would mean that anything can now be picked by robotics. Massive attempts from academia partnering with the tractor industry have now done that. The door is wide open now for ALL fruits and vegetables to be picked by robots.
labor is cheaper. for now.
THIS IS EXACTLY WHY WORK PERMITS WILL WORK.
They are time-limited. Not forever. As robotization takes over jobs, the # of permits is reduced.
I worked at 2 large packing plants (1976-1982) BEFORE the flood of illegals.
The wages were great, the benefits generous and yes, it was hard work but it afforded myself and my American (100% were Americans) co-workers to have a great upper middle class life, own a home, pay for raising children and even take a nice vacation each year.
Then, the FedGov decided to open up those jobs to #1, illegals and secondly, massive numbers of foreigners with special visas to work for those large packers.
The wages became stagnant and not enough to support a family. But, the foreign workers access EVERY SOCIAL WELFARE PROGRAM IN EXISTENCE.
So, they can live on those low wages and the rest of us SUBSIDIZE the employers who utilize the cheap labor.
Free healthcare for them, the wife and 6 kids, free schooling, food stamps (EBT), and other goodies.
I don’t know about you but I don’t think we should be subsidizing cheap, foreign born labor for TYSON, CARGILL, SWIFT, PILGRIM’S PRIDE, US FOOD HOLDINGS, ETC.
SEE WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO SPRINGFIELD, OHIO, etc, etc FOR CONTEXT..
Disastrous..
The same drill has been done to American construction workers..
Americans BUILT EVERYTHING BEFORE THE 1990’S.
Now, the pay buys much less than before.
I know because after I left the packing plant, I went into construction and have been in that field since the early ’80’s.
Who do you think did ALL OF THE MEAT PROCESSING, CONSTRUCTION, LANDSCAPING, ETC, ETC, ETC BEFORE the corrupt politicians allowed the millions of illegal and cheap laborers into this country?
Tick tock, tick tock…
Ding, ding, ding!!!
AMERICANS DID!
And, they could support a family on those wages!
Without government welfare assistance!
BECAUSE THERE WERE NOT 12 MILLIONS DESPERATE COMPETITORS FOR THOSE JOBS.
What is so hard to understand about this equation?
What the US needs is a cheap AI robot that can pick strawberries and grapes.
Sensible solution by Mish. Deport criminals, road to citizenship for law abiding (maybe with minimum provable number of years already here), seal the border so we don’t have to grant amnesty again later. I think most Americans would support this solution that threads the needle among the various obvious tradeoffs. I don’t think most Americans would tolerate large aggressive dragnets involving thousands of families broken up and deported. I don’t think Trump would even try to do a mass deportation.
There aren’t that many criminals despite what some would have you think.
We should also be deporting any illegal who isn’t self sufficient (ie requires a handout of any kind).
‘Seal the border’ is bullshit. The next Democrat president opens the border. What is needed is an approach that cannot be switched on/off at party discretion.
Agree – Reagan was double-crossed on this concept. Big Business wants the cheap labor … the many NGOs in the US benefit too.
Excerpt from 2010 NPR article on “Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986”.
The law granted amnesty to nearly 3 million illegal immigrants, yet was largely considered unsuccessful because the strict sanctions on employers were stripped out of the bill for passage.
You can google for more info … links sometimes need “approval” here.
Some reality is nice to read. border has been wide open for over 500 years
What NPR won’t tell you: Reagan was screwed by the Democrats and their worthless promises; which is the same reason Republicans would NOT support Harris-Biden immigration reform
The cost is an economic collapse and look at ongoing issues in Florida as an example. The demographic train has left the station. The median age of American female is now 40 so if there are any hope of repopulating the country with these women you’re out of luck and it ain’t gonna happen.
If maintaining the American culture/ethnicity/paradigm was important to you, the way to do it was to have lots of kids and teach them those things you cherish. But just like NIMBY, there is a LOHK (Let Others Have Kids) philosophy that put us all in the situation we are in now.
If Trump somehow manages to follow through meat packing plants will be empty, farms will have rotting fields, and construction will come to a halt all across the country. That’s not hyperbole, that’s simple reality. High inflation, food shortages, and no one around to fix or clean anything – and this is what will make America great again?
And don’t get me started on the collapse of social security and medicare but it would be sweet poetic justice to see boomers go broke and reap what they sow with their bigotry and hatred. Have at it, I’ll be overseas living like a king as an immigrant.
You told us Trump cant and wont win so don’t worry.
“If maintaining the American culture/ethnicity/paradigm was important to you, the way to do it was to have lots of kids and teach them those things you cherish”
I tried this approach but my wife wouldn’t agree to share me!
you seem like such a treasure, how could she.
No problem keeping anyone who is working and is self sufficient (not requiring any kind of handout).
Everyone else can be deported since they are clearly NOT providing anything (or not providing enough) and are instead a drain on the current resources of the economy.
I suspect of the 10 million, at least half or more would be deported under that criteria.
I have bad news for you Tim, there are 76m people and growing that fit into that criteria here in the U.S. and they are all “legal” and THAT is where the real spending problem is at and going to bankrupt the U.S.
Good luck living overseas where anti-American sentiment keeps going up and up. They don’t appreciate Americans (and other wealthy foreigners) driving up their costs of living.
Yes, that has become a problem which is why the plan is to be mobile and go where I am treated best.
Treated best? Just try to avoid getting kidnapped, which is a daily risk. Plan on paying for 24/7 security and extortion fees, etc.
i have other passports. plenty of places on planet earth are peaceful and nice and will welcome you. especially if you aren’t looking for “work” and spend some money on normal things in life……..
Make sure you don’t get sick – those countries don’t wanna take care of you. You’ll come back to the US for your Medicare.
I guess your wages and lifestyle or family haven’t been affected by an illegal.
Yet..
I’ve had 2 close friends whose children (2; one son each) were crippled (and one also with brain damage) due to hit and run by illegal alien drivers..
The son with crippling injuries and brain damage was starting Quarterback for the Colorado Buffs..
Now, he has nothing. And no future.
Imagine if that was your child…
MARKED TRUE. I CONCUR
Agree with all Mish says. However, I wonder if the US needs to put Trump’s measures in place and see them fail so that we can start moving beyond this populist agenda and get the world back to talking about real problems like healthcare, inequality, aging population, how elastic is the national debt, reasonable regulation on AI etc.
We already had 4 years of trump fail, but his cultists believe it was the best time ever. There is no connection to reality with these people, and the scientific method is The Debil.
They shouldn’t be patronized… they should be shunned.
The choice before voters is either a President who will fail to fix it or a President who will intentionally make it worse
Rerun post after 3 days? Is this grandma’s meat loaf?
Deport? That’s raciss. Upgrade them to first-class by sending to every Xanax boxed whine mom white suburb outside of the blue zoos.
Chicago Mag Mile is converting high rise commercial to residential, too. Heidi from The Tribune, Neil from The Sun-Times and Rex from USA Today are on the The Welcome Wagon!
And, what is the cost of keeping add’l millions on the govt. dole? You might be right that US citizens don’t want to work at the same rate as illegals do now. Recall the illegal has subsidized life expenses so they can work for less. Are illegals playing the system at hand like the top that avoids any tax burden? Sure they are. But, the expense is picked up by the mass.
There’s an assumption within this commentary that making them citizens suddenly makes them a contributor. Don’t we want folks here that pull their own weight? It is delusional to believe a snap of the fingers and the millions are gone. But, I think a bounty program (roundup for removal) probably would be pretty easy.
Trump had the D’s by the nuts on the border wall back when and let them negotiate away all the money he had to build it. Was it because he’s bad at his job or just a show? IDK. Just noting he’s not come through before on this when he had the upper hand.
Can you read?
My proposal would close the border, eject criminals, and try to have a rational immigration policy going forward
the border has never been closed. fantasy talk. lived down on the border for years………..and i know history. most of the planet earth does not have border walls for good reason. they don’t really work. hell, the western usa has been mexico and spain longer than they have been part of usa.