Lumber tariffs are already close to 15 percent. Trump will tack on another 25 percent.
Ignoring spikes, lumber futures are at the upper end of a channel from $442 at the low and $675 at high.
Lumber Pain North and South
Reuters reports Tariffs May Accelerate Canadian Lumber Industry’s Southward Shift.
President Donald Trump’s tariff threat could motivate more Canadian lumber producers to shift to the U.S. southern border while accelerating efforts to find new markets, industry experts said.
Levies on Canadian lumber could hit 40% if current duties of 14.54%, and Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs are added. Trump has paused tariffs on goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement until April 2.
Canada supplies about a quarter of U.S. lumber, and over the past decade, several Canadian mills have moved their operations to the U.S. South, drawn by cheaper, abundant timber and its availability on private lands as opposed to Crown land, which employs stringent harvesting policies.
“In 2004, there were only two sawmills owned by a Canadian manufacturer. Today, we have more than 50,” said Kyle Little, chief operating officer at New York-based Sherwood Lumber, which supplies over 2,000 U.S. lumber yards and manufacturers.
“Canadian companies now produce more than a third of the volume of the largest producing region in the U.S. – the U.S. South.”
Lumber Pain
The disruptions mean pain for both companies and customers.
“Even under modest growth scenarios, it’s probably closer to a decade to replace Canadian supply completely (in the U.S),” Jalbert said, flagging more short-term financial pain for the industry facing multiple challenges.
How Much to the Price of a Home?
Prices could reach $765 within weeks or months after tariff implementation, pushing the cost of a medium house to more than $10,000, said Hispanic Construction Council CEO George Carrillo.
Q: Does that factor in the shortage of labor due to deportations?
A: No, silly.
How Many Are Employed in US Lumber Industries?
Grok AI: As of recent data, the lumber industry in the United States employs a significant number of people across various sectors such as logging, sawmills, and wood product manufacturing. Based on available information, the U.S. lumber and wood products industry directly employs approximately 471,450 people nationwide as of 2024, with employment in the sector increasing by 1.1% that year. This figure primarily reflects employment in the core lumber-related subindustries, including logging, sawmill operations, and panel production.
Historically, the broader forest products industry, which includes lumber as well as paper and packaging, employed around 937,800 people in 2020, with roughly 428,500 of those jobs tied to the wood products sector (encompassing lumber and related manufacturing). Given the more specific focus of your question on lumber industries and the slight growth trend since 2020, the current estimate of around 471,450 remains a reasonable approximation for 2025, though exact numbers can fluctuate due to economic conditions, housing demand, and policy changes.
But, Mish, those are users and loggers.
How Many Logging Jobs Are We Talking About?
Grok AI: In 2020, the American Forest and Paper Association reported that the broader U.S. forest products industry employed approximately 937,800 people, encompassing forestry, logging, wood product manufacturing, and paper manufacturing. Within this, the “Forestry and Logging” segment—most relevant to tree lumber harvesting—accounted for a smaller subset. According to IBISWorld’s “Logging in the US” market research report, updated through 2024, the logging industry alone employed around 45,000 to 50,000 workers in recent years, with a slight decline projected due to automation and labor challenges (e.g., a CAGR of -3.2% in revenue through 2024).
More specifically, the BLS estimated in 2022 that “Logging Equipment Operators” (a key occupation in lumber harvesting) numbered 33,592, representing about 9% of the broader forestry and lumber sector’s employment. However, this figure excludes other roles like truck drivers, sawyers, and support staff directly involved in harvesting. The BLS also estimated “Tree Trimmers and Pruners” at 63,700, but this group focuses more on maintenance than lumber harvesting, so it’s less relevant here.
US Winners
- US Tree harvesting companies whose value of timber just increased
- Approximately 50,000 people directly employed in logging.
US Losers
- Approximately 366,000 people (416,000-50,000) directly employed in wood manufacturing will be hurt by higher lumber prices.
- Businesses that use lumber or wood.
- People who buy anything that contains wood.
New Home Sales Plunge 10.5 Percent
On February 26, 2025, I commented New Home Sales Plunge 10.5 Percent in January From Upward Revision
Sales of new single-family houses in January 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000.
Existing-Home Sales
On March 20, 2025, I commented Existing-Home Sales Rebound 4.2 Percent from -4.7 Percent in February
Existing-home sales advanced 4.2% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million.
To the direct 366,000 losers, please add another 650,000 new homes. Also factor in new cabinets, room additions , and any remodeling done by 4.26 million existing-home buyers.
Finally, please add in anyone who buys anything made out of wood, and that includes paper products.
“Detox Recession”
On March 10, I noted Trump and Secretary of Treasury Bessent Discuss the “Detox Recession”
Don’t worry, it’s just a little more pain and inflation disturbance before tariff greatness begins.
When Does Tariff Greatness Start?
I addressed that question yesterday in Trump’s Tax Hike ‘Liberation Day’ Day Begins April 2. Expect to Suffer
On Liberation Day, the price of lumber, steel, avocados, toys, literally everything is likely to increase.
Best of all, it’s country specific.
The Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the U.S., which details individual rates on particular commodities, has about 13,000 line items. The U.S. trades with roughly 200 countries. For those doing the math, that’s a 2,600,000 matrix.
How can that possibly not be great?
For discussion, please see A Clear Explanation of How Reciprocal Tariffs Will Work
Q: What do we call this?
A: Winning, silly. Anything and everything done by Trump is winning by definition.
“The argument that tariffs are not inflationary is based on the assumption if you have $100 to spend and the price of one item you buy goes up 10%, you will have this much less to spend on the other items (who are assumed to be in the basket of goods on which inflation is based). Unless the fed increases the money supply, there will not be an increase in inflation.”
The opening statement does not hold water because it assumes constant money supply. However, people can go deeper in debt to support consumption and rising assets prices can also support (or detract from) consumption.
Other than QE (and even that’s debatable), the Fed does not directly control money supply. It is fiscal deficits, consumer and business demand for credit that sets money supply.
The Fed indirectly, not directly influences the demand for credit via interest rates, and the Fed does nothing directly about fiscal deficits. So that’s two reasons the lead sentence is fallacy.
The MAGA talking heads say increased inflation didn’t happen in 2018-2020 so it won’t happen now.
That glass does not hold water either. Under Trump 1, the dollar rose and there was massive tariff avoidance (Goods from China labeled as Vietnam or Mexico).
It’s complex because everything is not in isolation. But this time tariff avoidance will be much tougher, the dollar is weakening, and tariffs massive on the whole world.
Q: Does that necessarily mean higher prices?
A: No!
Global recession and falling demand could easily take care of prices (or not). We could also have stagflation.
It is axiomatic that all monetary savings originate in the commercial banking system. The “flight to safety” has reversed the case for a recession. The Austrian boom/bust has been denigrated.
The tariffs on lumber is a showcase of how the Usonian producers will react: price increases proportional to the tariffs.
More numerical nonsense. The price of a home is determined by location and the laws of supply and demand. Ask any real estate agent.
“Futures” are built around completed sawn products in bulk. The real kicker is the stump price or raw saw timber pricing which has literally nothing to do with the “futures”.
It hasn’t exactly rocketed up lately and probably won’t until supplies get really really tight.
Landowners with trees of appropriate size/age/quantity/quality aren’t going to let it go until the pricing for the “raw” material is enticing.
https://timbermart-south.com/resources/state-stumpage-prices/north-carolina/
US Winners
US Losers
Can’t have one without the other. For each action there is an equal and opposite reaction. If someone receives a discount, someone has to give a discount. Consumers got lower prices on manufactured goods, by workers losing manufacturing jobs sent to low wage countries. At this point, i don’t even know what % of people in L.A. can even afford to buy a house. Extremely low. 4 million people and almost no land left to build houses. The price of success in an extreme growth of population. To top it off, L.A. city government just announced they have a $1 billion budget deficit.
Another good job. I believe Trump does not even realise the cost side, and how disproportionately larger (in near every case) the paying user tariff side is. Comments like “tariffs is such a beautiful word”, etc shows his complete lack of understanding.
Another Trump Waffle-Fest on 4/02? The fact he’s not even negotiating with Europe indicates he’s just waiting on them to start. But who know’s when even he doesn’t? Never mind what he says I.e. like rounded off to the nearest $100 Billion “We spend $200 billion a year on Canada’s defense”. Sure, and pigs fly.
Since Lumber prices are set on commodity futures there are many factors determining levels.
There is no shortage of harvest-able Trees in US.
Tariff application will affect Canada producers.
However the costs associated with logging, such as Tree felling, running skidders to haul Logs out of Forest, Trucks that carry Logs to mills, distribution from those mills all the way to Local Lumber yards have a primary cost getting decreased. That being operational costs from Diesel Fuel.
Heavy Machinery costs much to keep fueled. Operating expenses are falling as direct consequence of lower Oil.
Leaving engines idle destroys them. The difference between moving more commodity rather then less is minimal. A machine capable of lifting 20 yard buckets of material will not wear out doing 125 loads rather then 100 loads.
Maybe a bit more grease in morning and few more engine oil changes.
Freight Trains move Lumber across the Nation. Running more cars will mean more earnings for Rail workers. A desirable thing at least for US workers.
No regular people can afford Cedar products from Canada in any Case, with or without Tariff.
Interest rate levels and mortgage availability has a stronger effect on Lumber Futures then any Tariff.
Maine Loggers along the Allagash River will be pleased. Maybe they will be able to feed their families once again from earnings.
add: Canada’s political leadership will jump for Joy, Now they can wave their, we have reduced Carbon Footprint flags proudly.
Go Canada.
Win win for everybody. US gets more jobs and Canada gets to trumpet how they are saving the World for posterity.
There is a divergence between Timber Futures and the WOOD ETF. WOOD like the Dow Jones Transportation Index has broken thru the COVID March 2020 to subsequent major nadir low trend lines, pointing to lower prices for both trade-able assets in the coming recession. One thing for sure, Smoot-Hawley has been tested by the Hoover administration 95 years ago in a similar time period of the asset-debt macroeconomic cycle. Stupid is expecting a different outcome in 2025.
Yes, stupid is seeing the same outcome when the entire US and world economy is completely different than when Smoot-Hawley was enacted.
No one knows what is going to happen when those tariffs are imposed and anyone telling you that they know is a complete fraud and idiot.
No one knows what will happen, primarily because no one know how stupid Trump will get.
Nor how countries retaliate.
But the claims of Trump are proven mathematical idiocies because of contradictions.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/lutnick-says-tariffs-can-eliminate-the-irs-and-balance-the-budget/
The US should have ZERO tariffs on natural resources. but very high tariffs on manufactured items. The strategy is to be the last country standing with resources. It’s an advantageous position of bargaining.
Home prices deflated in the US. Transactions are down. Volume might stay low even if the Fed will cut rates. Prices will cont to deflate.
Europe is tired of the war in Ukraine. Only Trump can stop the killing. The trust in Trump to deliver peace in Ukraine and the ME is growing. Friedrich Merz might form a coalition with AfD (Nazi) and SPD (Scholz). The EU might follow Victor Orban anti liberal policies. They will squash centrifugal forces with an iron fist.
Russia isn’t going to stop fighting while the US is still arming the proxy army to kill Russians. Trump should have cut off the Ukraine entirely on day 1.
Putin throws anyone who objects to him out windows. It’s called defenestration. I’m guessing the Republican Party is good with that. Nice democracy you have here. Sure hate anything to happen to it. I love how the conservative party is onboard with no democracy. Funny thing is you all are just fine with big government communists now. Seriously, it would be funny if it wasn’t such a tragedy for this country.
Got two negative ratings on my comment on Russia and American conservatives going full communist, big government. I guess the truth hurts. Communist republicans are a new flavor. You are to laugh🤣
Good times! American Republicans
are the new big government communists. Now we all have to worry😏
Truth schmuth. Your guy Zelensky banned opposition parties, censored opposition news organizations, arrested priests, closed the Orthodox Church, cancelled elections and stashed away untold millions while ruthlessly ordering conscripts to fight to the death.
Russia has always been our adversary. The Republican Party used to understand that really well. Now, they support Russia and dictatorships. Presently, this administration loves Russia, China, North Korea and an assortment of other countries who hate democracy. What happened to American conservatives? You are communists now. As for Ukraine… they are their own country. What would you do if America was invaded?
To the Democrats, Russia, Russia, Russia is a political narrative. Hillary went to Putin’s Russia with a reset button. Democrats are on board with no democracy. They tried to prevent Trump from being a candidate. They also obstructed RFK Jr. from running within his life long political party. Lastly, the U.S. is a constitutional republic, not a democracy. The first ten Amendments are rights, not privileges than can be eliminated by a simple democratic vote. Democrats are Goebbels propagandizing when they keep claiming “threats to our democracy.”
Poor people don’t buy lumber. No impact on them directly BIG PICTURE. I do buy some but 15% is marginal. I have no problem with it and encourage the tariff. I hope it goes even higher. 25%. Even 50% is fine. The cost will get passed on to whoever buys my properties. I don’t care. I will never sell the property at a loss under any circumstance so tariff away.
Let’s hope a crap ton. We need even more reasons to push up home prices, so no one can afford to buy them for many years to come.
It’s not rocket science to understand that housing will only become affordable again via a major recession. There’s ONLY ONE WAY to force tons of those sub 3% loaners out there to sell: bankruptcy / short sells due to loss of income.
Any other course will just see prices waffle around up and down over an interval that remains unaffordable.
Now do I really want to see a major recession happen? No, of course not, but at least I’m willing to be honest about the solution. Until then, we can all bitch about home unaffordability until our parents die off and leave us enough money to buy that unaffordable house we’ve been eyeing since 2022. Otherwise, we’re screwed.
Housing is unaffordable for two primary reasons: 1. People speculate on housing with a lot of leverage and banks are happy to provide the credit, & 2. The good locations for housing have been built out and people don’t want to have to commute long distances for decent jobs.
Over the long term both problems are solvable with creative thinking. Recessions only solve the problem for the length of the recession.
What a massive pile of BS. We haven’t had a REAL recession for going on 15 years now. The fake 6 week downturn in spring 2020 doesn’t even come close to counting.
Now, let’s get back to reality, Jon. High home prices are the direct result of:
#1 The fed’s $2.7T in MBS purchases since 2009. Nothing else comes close.
#2 The fed implementing (un-necessarily) near ZIRP policy and then went on to hold rates low for WAY TOO long.
#3 Congress supported rent & mortgage relief far too long. Granted, if you shutdown the economy for, then you might need to provide people with relief, but both the shutdown & relief lasted far too long. Neither should have lasted more than 3 months. The CDC knew by the first of May 2020 that the IFR was less than 0.5%.
There are several other reasons that go beyond buyer speculation that matter a lot more, but these are the three.
The most important question when the next recession arrives is:
Will Congress throw money at keeping people in their homes, or will they let a recession cause the necessary short sells that will cause a significant drop in home prices. That’s the $64K question.
The fed reacts to federal government policies, it doesn’t drive them. Home price escalation was a direct result banking deregulation in the ‘90’s, that opened up speculation on housing. You aren’t going to get any big employment recessions for at least a few decades. The baby boomers are retiring out opening up millions of jobs, and immigrants being deported will open up even more. But best of luck to you!
The fed reacts in the wrong way, making things worse. They shouidve never “bought” those mbs or long bonds, never shouldve done zirp. That allowed congress to massively increase the debt higher. If the fed wouldnt have *bought* the bonds and mbs, rates would have rightfully spiked a lot higher which would then deter congress from overspending. And yes a big part of the problem is many voters unaware of whats going on, voting for the deficit spending politicians policies that the fed wrongly monetizes, so people are actually voting for inflation.
There are LOTS of affordable homes. Too many in fact. The issue is people don’t want even a mild fixer upper. Nonsense. People have been moving in homes that needed some elbow grease since forever. We have a culture now unfortunately that scoffs at it and would prefer to live with mommy and daddy because they can’t buy a super nice place in the nice area.
I know many of these types. Screw them. The world does not work like that. You get a starter something and progress as your status progresses. There is also no perfect time to buy a home. You buy what you can afford in any economy. They want to wait for the perfect time when there is no such thing.
I live in NW ATL. There are no “affordable” homes in my area. My dinky 1,298 SF (foundation mind you, probably closer to 1,100 SF once you subtract the walls) is valued at $333K by the tax assessor or $256 / SF. And my house is a spec home with an $85 a month HOA with zero amenities & my house literally has 20 SF of grass along the curb & an 8-foot driveway. 2,000 SF condos in my area start @ $500K.
It’s a joke.
It doesn’t matter how much the price of lumber increases if an American lumberjack leaves the welfare rolls, gets a job, votes Republican, pays taxes, marries his sweetheart, buys a home, and raises two more lumberjacks.
Russian troll. Here to denigrate America. Dude, go away! I’m still stunned about how obvious you are…KGB. Russian spy avatar. Not obvious at all. We barely notice you over there in the corner 😎
By the way, the US does actually have vast reserves of forested land and timber.
So, there is no problem and never was. Only the political viewpoint has shifted. I suggest the US commence clear cutting forest immediately. (sounds rude, but that is how it is done. followed by huge replantings). Saw mills are cheap compared to many industries.
I wanted to short lumber futes at 1750. Some smart guys told me that there was no liquidity. C’est la vie.
The U.S. government has always had a hard-on against Canadian lumber, not only for its cheapness, but also for its “government supported” lands situation. The fines of the U.S. against Canada, which are monetarily strong and commercially prohibitive, had been instituted only after Canada failed to change its policies to suit the U.S.
Another subtle problem with the free trade deal now in place, which the U.S. has pissed all over by hammering tariffs on Canada, where anti-Americanism is now rampant, is how the tariffs can jibe with the free trade deal Trump himself negotiated in his first term in office. The tariffs aren’t sensible.
Not only was Trump angered by Canadian independence, poking a stick in his authoritarian eye, but he lusted after the “51st state” for its natural beauty and resources which were world-renowned. Trump wants Canada and he wants to punish Canada – a situation subtly distilled by the humiliating visit of Justin Trudeau to Florida and dinner at Mar-a-Lago that emphasized Trudeau’s submission to the Trump monolith…
=-=-=
You can read more of my writings by visiting: dark. sport. blog – on the net!
77% of Canada’s exports to the US. Watch Canadian Bacon.
Let’s all go ahead and find out. We are all inflation worn thru, nobody should be toying with potential inflation right now! Else, done like dinner politically. Cut spending yes, reinvent the western world no.
Tax revenue could drop by 10 percent amid turmoil at IRSStaff cuts and disruptions related to the U.S. DOGE Service have officials bracing for a sharp loss of revenue. https://archive.ph/QjYh6#selection-541.0-545.111
See: ANATOL B. BALBACH and DAVID H. RESLER: “Eurodollars and the U.S. Money Supply”
http://bit.ly/LVVuhI
Milton Friedman: “Well, that’s a very good question, and it’s a very easy answer. I may say, the answer I’m giving is not my answer, it was the answer that was given by Adam Smith…in 1776 in “The Wealth of Nations.” From that time to this, hardly any professional economist has believed in tariffs or protection or anything but free trade”
– How Much Will Lumber Tariffs Increase the Price of a Home?
> A very open ended Question, and as such, it has many more questions and as a result, very various possible answers…
If the Builder wishes to, they can eat that small cost of roughly $800.00. This would change absolutely nothing. A terrific solution.
The Banks could lessen their interest rates 1/2% on loans that fall into a category of undoable. This would be tremendous.
Mills could reduce the cost, of their current large inventory, sell more, make more, build more, so there is that option. A great outcome for all.
More Mills could open up in the U.S. and this would not even be a topic of discussion. Probably the perfect outcome, as we get jobs, lower cost, and good lumber, all helping Americans out.
A combination of any of these would yield fantastic results perhaps? Anything BUT what we were doing, and in some cases still are doing, would be acceptable.
I welcome change!
Corporate leaders don’t give a damn about helping Americans out. They care about maximizing profit for shareholders. If they can find an acceptable way to raise prices they will. If the media says tariffs cause inflation, and people then expect higher prices, every good CEO is going to give it to them good and hard.
When will they learn that anything and everything done by Trump is winning!.
The world has gone MAGA:
Make
America
Go
Away!
If Americans are not buying, then many Foreigners are not selling. I doubt they will say “Go Away”
If Americans are not buying, then things will have to change. Perhaps a pull back to “Buy American” and find ways to meet the demand at Home if possible. Another result Foreigners will not be happy with.
Maybe even, I Dare Say, go without for awhile…
The US are not the universal destination of all foreign exports. Where there’s a seller, there’s a buyer.
The new global brands may all be Chinese. BYD springs to mind. Maybe Europe goes Huawei? Not impossible in this topsy turvy world.
That’s what will happen over the long term. Every country that instituted tariffs to protect their industries went by the wayside. Argentina is a classic example.
Need $$$
For the ‘national builders’ on the stock market crap shacks they may as well be using cardboard from their appliance boxes anyway.
Major home-builder, D.R. Horton is using some crappy cardboard material in their walls. There is a recent youtube video that describes the shoddy homebuilding practices of DR Horton. They way they are building some of these ‘shacks’ should be a criminal offense.
Which is timely, given the new laws in Florida mandating costly inspections and upgrades to decaying housing.
We’ve hit the limit of what people can pay. If tariffs mean builders can’t make a profit at what people can pay, they will stop building, and everything will get worse.
I’ve heard that every chapter of Russian history begins with “and then it got worse.” Looks like we’re Russians now.
Stalin had the biggest of big muscular plans, eyes forever on the prize, and willingness to sacrifice (others, en masse). It just kept receding into the distance.
The argument that tariffs are not inflationary is based on the assumption if you have $100 to spend and the price of one item you buy goes up 10%, you will have this much less to spend on the other items (who are assumed to be in the basket of goods on which inflation is based). Unless the fed increases the money supply, there will not be an increase in inflation.
Out of the mouth of babes.
I am pretty convinced, from looking at the history of “prohibitive” or “punitive tariffs”, that every tariff increase is met by a counter tariff increase, and that the result is generally, a decrease of employment and production on each side of the warring factions.
Did you know that the dictator Napoleon imposed punitive tariffs on Britain back around the early 1800’s. He wanted to punish Britain for not letting him conquer it. He also forced all British goods to show the sign “Made in England”. But that sort of backfired, because Brit goods, in the field of tea, fabrics, fine china, etc were back then of superior quality. So “Made in England” became a mark of quality.
Napoleon sometime later decided to conquer Russia (because Germany, Austria and Italy wasn’t enough), and went east with 300,000 troops, and came back after the Russian winter with 30,000 left. A while later, Admiral Nelson, and a coalition of European countries defeated him at Waterloo, and that was the end of that. I forget, was that in 1812 or 1815?
The British used the mark “Made in England” ever after. Of course, England sort of went downhill after WW2, but that’s the way empires crumble. I am wondering who’s next to crumble? Never mind, I don’t want to be around for that. Sometimes the idea that we all eventually end up in the same place, six feet under, is almost comforting in view of what the living have to put up with.
Nelson died at Trafalgar in 1805. You meant Arthur Wellesley, Duke of Wellington at Waterloo in 1815.
Money supply is primarily driven by bank lending. And money velocity is more important in inflation than actual quantity.
You are absolutely correct! Many people refer to “money printing,” “deficit spending,” and other money supply arguments as the root cause of inflation. The fact is that deficit spending increases the issuance of Treasury securities, which are then sold, which removes money circulating in the economy, thus causing no increase in the circulating money supply. Money printing is a misnomer. To create new money circulating in the economy, this is traditionally only accomplished through the issuance of new debt through the banking system.
Govt selling treasuries doesnt remove money from the economy. The govt sells that debt so it can spend it right back on SS, medicare, defense, interest, etc. and more money is added when the fed “prints”/buys govt debt.
I don’t think that reasoning is correct: if tariffs raise prices then you will indeed still spend the same amount but get fewer goods in return. However the basket of goods used to benchmark inflation (in the every day use of the word) doesn’t change – the amount of goods will be the same. So the price increase will be reflected.
“The argument that tariffs are not inflationary is based on the assumption if you have $100 to spend and the price of one item you buy goes up 10%, you will have this much less to spend on the other items (who are assumed to be in the basket of goods on which inflation is based). Unless the fed increases the money supply, there will not be an increase in inflation.”
The opening statement does not hold water because it assumes constant money supply. But people can go deeper in debt to support consumption and rising assets prices can support consumption.
Other than QE (and even that’s debatable), the Fed does not directly control money supply. It is fiscal deficits, consumer and business demand for credit that sets money supply.
The Fed does indirectly influence the demand for credit via interest rates. So that’s two reasons the lead sentence is fallacy.
The MAGA talking head say increased inflation didn’t happen in 2018-2020 so it won’t happen now.
That glass does not hold water either. Under Trump 1, the dollar rose and there was massive tariff avoidance (Goods from China labeled as Vietnam or Mexico).
It’s complex because everything is not in isolation. But this time tariff avoidance will be much tougher, the dollar is weakening, and tariffs massive on the whole world.
Q: Does that necessarily mean higher prices?
A: No!
Global recession and falling demand could easily take care of it (or not). We could also have stagflation.