Biden’s CHNV program is now revoked.
532,000 Told to Self-Deport
The Department of Homeland Security issued a Termination of Parole Processes for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, and Venezuelans
DHS has determined that it is now appropriate and necessary to terminate the CHNV parole programs. These programs do not serve a significant public benefit, are not necessary to reduce levels of illegal immigration, did not sufficiently mitigate the domestic effects of illegal immigration, are not serving their intended purposes, and are inconsistent with the Administration’s foreign policy goals. Regarding previous arguments or determinations that these programs were consistent with the requirement of “urgent humanitarian reasons” for granting parole, DHS believes that consideration of any urgent humanitarian reasons for granting parole is best addressed on a case-by-case basis consistent with the statute, and taking into consideration each alien’s specific circumstances. These reasons, independently and cumulatively, support termination of the CHNV parole programs.
CBS reports U.S. to Revoke Legal Status of More than a Half-Million Migrants, Urges them to Self-Deport
The Trump administration will be revoking the legal status of hundreds of thousands of Latin American and Haitian migrants welcomed into the U.S. under a Biden-era sponsorship process, urging them to self-deport or face arrest and removal by deportation agents.
The termination of their work permits and deportation protections under an immigration authority known as parole will take effect in late April, 30 days after March 25, according to a notice posted by the federal government.
The move will affect immigrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela who flew to the U.S. under a Biden administration program, known as CHNV, that was designed to reduce illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border by giving would-be migrants legal migration avenues.
A total of 532,000 migrants entered the U.S. under that policy, which was paused soon after President Trump took office, though it’s unclear how many have been able to secure another status that will allow them to stay in the country legally.
How Many from Each Country?
I asked Grok, Musk’s AI engine:
“Trump to deport 532,000 migrants from from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. What is the breakdown by country?”
Grok Response
While exact breakdowns by country for the 532,000 affected migrants are not explicitly detailed in a single, comprehensive, and up-to-date public source as of March 21, 2025, I can provide an informed estimate based on available data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and other reports up to late 2024. The CHNV program, launched in January 2023, allowed up to 30,000 individuals per month from these four countries to enter the U.S., provided they had a U.S.-based sponsor and met vetting requirements. By December 2024, approximately 531,690 migrants had entered under this program, a figure closely aligning with the 532,000 cited in recent reports, suggesting minor updates or adjustments in the final tally.
Here’s an estimated breakdown by country based on historical data and trends:
- Haiti: Haitians have consistently been the largest group within the CHNV program due to severe humanitarian crises, including gang violence and political instability. Reports indicate that the majority of CHNV beneficiaries were Haitian. If we assume a proportional distribution weighted by need and migration patterns, Haiti likely accounts for around 40-50% of the total. This would translate to approximately 212,800-266,000 individuals.
- Venezuela: Venezuelans, fleeing economic collapse and political repression, were the second-largest group. The program initially targeted Venezuelans in October 2022 before expanding, and their numbers grew significantly. Estimates suggest they could represent 25-30% of the total, or roughly 133,000-159,600 individuals.
- Cuba: Cubans, benefiting from unique legal pathways like the Cuban Adjustment Act after a year in the U.S., also utilized the CHNV program heavily. Their share is likely around 15-20%, equating to approximately 79,800-106,400 individuals.
- Nicaragua: Nicaraguans, escaping authoritarian rule, formed the smallest group due to lower overall migration numbers compared to the others. They likely account for 10-15%, or about 53,200-79,800 individuals.
These estimates are derived from:
- CBP data showing 531,690 entries by December 2024, with Haiti noted as the majority contributor.
- Migration trends where Haiti and Venezuela have seen higher outflows (e.g., 7 million Venezuelans have fled globally, and Haiti’s crisis displaced over 1 million internally).
- The program’s equal monthly allocation (30,000 slots split across four countries) adjusted for real-world application rates, where Haiti and Venezuela outpaced Cuba and Nicaragua.
Without an official, itemized breakdown from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) or ICE specific to the March 21, 2025, announcement, these figures remain approximate. The precise numbers could shift slightly based on final tallies or unreported variations in program uptake. For instance, some sources suggest Haiti alone could exceed 250,000, but this isn’t universally confirmed.
In summary, the approximate breakdown of the 532,000 migrants targeted for deportation is:
- Haiti: 212,800-266,000
- Venezuela: 133,000-159,600
- Cuba: 79,800-106,400
- Nicaragua: 53,200-79,800
For exact figures, an official DHS release post-March 21, 2025, would be required, which isn’t available as of now.
Expect an immediate court challenge.
This one is headed to the Supreme Court for resolution.
How Many Are Job Holders?
Grok: Without specific data, we can estimate. If we assume a labor force participation rate similar to the foreign-born population (say, 60%), approximately 319,200 of these 532,000 migrants could be job holders. This is a rough estimate, as factors like time since arrival (most entered between 2023 and 2024), regional job markets, and individual circumstances (e.g., language barriers or pending EAD applications) could adjust this number higher or lower.
Some sources suggest high employment motivation among these groups—Cubans, for instance, can pursue permanent residency after a year under the Cuban Adjustment Act, incentivizing work, while Haitians and Venezuelans often qualify for Temporary Protected Status (TPS), also tied to work permits.
What Is the Economic Impact?
Grok: Economic Contributions of CHNV Migrants
These migrants, granted temporary parole and work permits for up to two years, have integrated into the U.S. economy, particularly in states like Florida, Texas, and others with large immigrant communities. Many work in sectors such as hospitality, construction, agriculture, and caregiving—industries often reliant on immigrant labor. For example:
- Labor Force Participation: With work authorization, these 532,000 individuals likely contribute to filling labor shortages. The U.S. has faced persistent labor gaps, with 8.8 million job openings reported in late 2024 (per historical BLS trends), often in low-wage, physically demanding roles that native-born workers are less likely to take.
- Tax Contributions: As legal workers, they pay federal, state, and payroll taxes. Assuming an average annual income of $30,000 (a conservative estimate for entry-level jobs), their collective earnings could exceed $15 billion annually, generating roughly $2-3 billion in tax revenue (based on typical tax rates of 15-20% including income and payroll taxes).
- Consumer Spending: Their wages fuel local economies, particularly in urban hubs like Miami, where Cuban and Haitian communities are concentrated, or Houston, with its Venezuelan population. This spending supports businesses in retail, housing, and services.
Immediate Economic Disruptions from Deportation
Deporting 532,000 workers could trigger several immediate effects:
- Labor Shortages: Industries like construction and hospitality, already strained, would lose a significant portion of their workforce. In Florida, where 25% of construction workers are immigrants (per the American Immigration Council), removing even a fraction of this group could delay projects and raise costs. For instance, Miami’s booming real estate market might see slowdowns, increasing housing prices further.
- Business Losses: Small businesses reliant on immigrant labor—restaurants, landscaping firms, and cleaning services—could face closures or reduced output. A 2017 study by the National Bureau of Economic Research estimated that a 1% reduction in immigrant labor reduces GDP by 0.1-0.2%. Extrapolating, deporting 532,000 workers (roughly 0.3% of the U.S. labor force of 167 million) could shave $20-40 billion off GDP annually.
- Wage Pressure: Reduced labor supply might push wages up in affected sectors, benefiting remaining workers but increasing costs for employers. However, this could also drive inflation, particularly in food and housing, as production costs rise.
Regional Impacts
- Florida: Miami-Dade County, with large Cuban and Haitian populations, could see economic contraction. Hialeah and Doral, heavily immigrant areas, might lose workers in hospitality and retail, disrupting local commerce. Posts on X suggest fear of job losses and family separations in Little Havana and Little Haiti, hinting at reduced economic activity in these cultural hubs.
- Texas: Cities like Houston, with Venezuelan migrants, could see similar effects in oil, construction, and service sectors. The loss of workers might strain an economy recovering from recent energy market volatility.
- Other States: California and New York, with smaller but notable CHNV populations, might face agricultural and caregiving disruptions, respectively.
Costs of Deportation
Executing mass deportation is expensive. Historical estimates from the American Action Forum (2016) pegged the cost of deporting 11 million undocumented immigrants at $400-600 billion over 20 years, or roughly $36,000-55,000 per person. For 532,000 people, direct costs (detention, transportation, legal proceedings) could range from $19-29 billion. Additional expenses include:
- ICE Expansion: Increasing detention capacity beyond the current 40,000 beds (near full as of December 2024) to Trump adviser Tom Homan’s goal of 100,000 beds would require billions in funding, possibly through private contractors or military bases.
- Military Involvement: The Pentagon’s deployment of aircraft and 1,500 additional troops to the border adds to the tab, potentially costing hundreds of millions annually based on past military border operations.
Long-Term Economic Effects
- Remittances: These migrants send money to their home countries, supporting economies in Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. In 2023, remittances from the U.S. to Latin America exceeded $150 billion (World Bank). Deportation could cut this flow, destabilizing fragile economies and potentially increasing migration pressure as conditions worsen abroad.
- Community Disruption: Many CHNV parolees have U.S.-born children or ties to legal residents. Deportation could strain social services as families lose breadwinners, offsetting any short-term fiscal “savings” from reduced immigrant presence.
- Investment Deterrence: Businesses may hesitate to invest in regions hit hardest by labor loss, slowing economic growth over time.
Counterarguments and Mitigation
Proponents of deportation argue it could reduce wage suppression for native workers and ease pressure on public resources like housing and healthcare. However, evidence suggests immigrants complement rather than compete with native labor (Cato Institute, 2020), and their tax contributions often exceed their use of services. Replacing 532,000 workers would require significant retraining or immigration from elsewhere, both costly and time-intensive.
Conclusion
Deporting 532,000 migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela would likely cause short-term economic disruption—labor shortages, business losses, and a GDP hit of $20-40 billion—while costing $19-29 billion to implement. Regionally, states like Florida and Texas would bear the brunt, with long-term risks including reduced remittances and investment. The scale of impact depends on execution speed and whether affected migrants secure alternative legal status (e.g., TPS or asylum), but the immediate economic cost could outweigh any fiscal or political gains.
That is an impressive set of answers from Grok. Those cheering may wish to consider the above.
That does not mean I endorse the way Biden went about things. Many of these people were poorly vetted criminals and gang members.
However, Grok’s conclusion is very reasonable: “The immediate economic cost could outweigh any fiscal or political gains.“
Two Economic Shocks
Combined with tariff insanity starting April 2, this country is in for two shocks.
For discussion of the other shock please see Trump’s Tax Hike ‘Liberation Day’ Day Begins April 2. Expect to Suffer
The pre-shocks have begun. But the big shock is on deck.
And in case you missed it, please consider A Clear Explanation of How Reciprocal Tariffs Will Work
There are many conflicting reports on what “reciprocal” means, but I condense things down to the core idea.
Addendum Q&A
Since much of what I said is likely to be taken out of context, and silly questions are already coming in, I am pleased to offer this Q&A.
Silly Reader Q: When will Trump punish the employers of illegal immigrants?
A: Likely never. The governors of Florida and Texas don’t want that, nor does any sensible person who remotely understands what mass deportation of 15 million people would do.
Q: Do you support Biden’s CHNV program?
A: No. It was idiotic flying over 50,000 people here?
Q: What should Trump do?
A: Something other than a shotgun program that the courts are likely to strike down.
Q: Can you be more specific?
A: Sure. I have written ideas already. But I need to refine my response in light of these events. I will do so in a follow-up post.
When are we getting these illegals out of here??
Most in country illegally submit bogus claims for political asylum, schedule hearing on status years into the future (limit item judicial resources) and usually fail to attend on hearing date.
Trump needs to be more thoughtful in approach. Detain, expedite hearing process with special ALG, and deport. Skipping the hearing process creates most issues.
Like, how do you know how many people from Venezuela were “poorly vetted”, and whether they were “criminal gang members”? It’s just a matter of getting to the bottom of this.
I am asking this only, because I know from my parents, when they talked about how from one day to the next “jewish classmates and jewish teachers” were disappearing from school and from their homes. Now, maybe you hate jews, I don’t know. But the fact of the matter is readable in the archives of newspapers kept from that time, that there were constant reports about “how many criminals were removed” from the city, and how they would be sent East, to be resettled there.
Trump is the only president ever to be talked about as having Hitler’s “Mein Kampf” on his nightstand. That’s believable, because he had servants to make his bed. Why would they say that, if it were not true? Who would make up such a story?
I always ask: “Is that so?” and especially when people known to constantly lie are involved.
In addition to eyewitness statements and statements from informants, there may be physical evidence like video of Venezuela immigrants engaging in criminal activities like trying to break into an apartment.
Examine their immigration file to determine how much they have been “vetted”.
Examine what they are doing now in the USA such as employment, going to school, how well they have learned English, etc
Examine if they have a sponsor and if they are living with the sponsor. Examine the sponsor such as who they are, do they own a home, where they work, etc
The Geneva convention for human rights was the answer to WWII refugees plight.
LBJ ratified it in 1967. Build a bridge to the world became a law. The EU absorbed
millions of Syrian and Afghan refugees since 2015. India and the UK absorbed millions of refugees from Bangladesh. After Khadafi assassination millions of refugees invaded Italy and France. The EU paid iron fist Erdogan to shoot Syrian refugee trying to to cross to Greece via Turkey. They paid the African nations to stop invasion. Judge Boasberg: bring them back to the US.
Not sure if that is true!
I have a source who has submitted paperwork to the Trump administration showing visa fraud of all work visa programs. This likely goes back a lot longer than before the Biden administration. This will implicate even green card holders and US citizens if they participated in the fraud. Prepare for a lot of visa revocation programs and even undoing citizenship if crimes were committed prior to citizenship.
https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/about/centers/ucla-anderson-forecast/recession-watch-2025
Thoguhts?
@Mish??
Really? UCLA?
So one has to suspect the results when all they do is provide negatives to deportation. Where are the benefits? Cost savings from welfare programs, the added costs to schools who are forced to educate them, the hospitals that must treat them, the health consequences not being vaccinated, the increase in rent to house them, etc.
Sorry, having quite a few friends who came through the proper process from Taiwan, China, and France, just ‘cuz Biden’s globalist immigration progressives decide you get to skip the line doesn’t mean you should be here.
Take a shortcut, and risk it taken away by right.
Chutes and ladders.
“However, evidence suggests immigrants complement rather than compete with native labor” – what a load of BS. IF all the jobs have gone to immigrants since COVID as we’ve read here a few times, how could this statement be true unless they lump in illegals on top of H1B people to help the numbers.
10+ million illegals entering over a short time span have done nothing but push up inflation, especially for shelter.
No, they haven’t pushed up inflation. Inflation is when you expand the money supply disproportionately to the increase in goods and services you can exchange the money for. This can cause prices to rise because the money already in existence loses purchasing power, so you need more of it to buy the same goods and services. Think of inflation like decreasing fuel efficiency for you car. As efficiencyndrops, you need more gas to go the same distance.
What the illegals have done is increase the demand for goods and services, which causes prices to rise, at least in the near term. You can have inflation reducing purchasing power (reflected by an increase in price) and increased demand for the same supply of goods and services pushing up prices at the same time.
Let’s say 10,000,000+ illegal immigrants were deported in one day — tomorrow. Are you telling me that the money/loans circulating throughout the economy for *10 million* people has no CPI inflation effect on the economy? Only a fool would say that. No more renting, car buying, government outlays, *loans*, *consumption of any kind* for 10+ million residents gone, overnight? Give me a break.
I adhere to the classic definition of inflation, which is an inflating of the money supply (like a balloon). What you are talking about with “CPI inflation” would be the result of demand for the (same) supply of GOODS AND SERVICES suddenly tanking. Yes, that would cause prices to readjust, but that would not be because of any change in the quantity of money. If we lose sight of what causes inflation of the money supply, they win.
Money supply doubled between 2008 and 2020 with very little (non-asset) inflation. We’ve had periods of asset deflation (2000 market crash, 2008 housing bust) that had very little impact on price inflation. Spending levels in the real economy determines inflation, not money supply, whatever the form. Money goes to a hole and dies if spending were to ever stop (bad loan graveyard). The Fed would adjust its balance sheet lower if it were to happen.
Yep. I have said this before in the comments section of a Mish blog post on illegal immigration. A correct economic analysis would consider the seen and the unseen. Otherwise it’s the broken window fallacy. Show me the math on the obvious impacts and then the non-obvious impacts from all these third worlders coming here.
Just one potential unseen cost that comes to mind: are the economic analyses of illegal immigration offsetting what illegals “add” to the economy by how much money they send back home? Because that is effectively strip mining the US economy. That money doesn’t stay here moving through the US economy.
One thing Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela have in common is US military and economic intervention in their internal affairs and economies. Take Venezuela for example – Hugo Chavez said a mean thing about Bush Jr and so the US set about crushing their economy under sanctions which has subsequently lead to mass migration. Maybe it’s time to lift the sanctions?
Agreed. Obviously the Venezuelan government sucks but our refineries are set up to process their heavy grade crude. Doing business with them would bring more oil on the market, lowering the price and would do a lot to reduce inflation in our economy.
Yea, let’s put 25 percent tariffs on Canadian oil, with pipelines in place, but move the imports to Venezuela instead of Canada,
Increasing the cost, and moving the deficit to Venezuela.
Tariffs are the dumbest way to accomplish anything, because they always cause more suffering to the many, and benefit only a very few.
Assignment to Mish: Please study the world history of tariffs, and report back to us.
SPX might rise to the 5,800/5,900 area, before dropping to the 5,000/5,300 area. No recession.
— Why are they all males?
— And did we have industrial problems before they arrived?
— Ten years ago, the problem was that nobody needed workers because of automation. Now we do?
— My gas station owner will suffer financially if I quit smoking. So, I’d better keep smoking, right?
Good. Get rid of them. Thank you President Trump!!!
How about deporting those that are criminals and not working paying taxes. No need to throw out the baby with the bath water. Common sense is lacking here.
There’s no baby here, just bath water.
I wholeheartedly agree ….currently whole industries are lacking workers ….agriculture, assisted livings, construction, just to name a few…
To amplify on the “baby with the bath water”…you don’t need to destroy the whole lawn just to get rid of a few dandelions…
I know immigrants from eastern Europe, very conscientious, courageous, hard workers, moral, raising a family and paying taxes…
Those from Eastern Europe… they must be legal immigrants. You can’t pay taxes without an SSN. Your employer can’t pay you without an SSN, unless he pays you in cash under the table. You can get an SSN to open a bank account if you’re a student or you have a B2 visa (business), but that doesn’t give you work authorization for your employer to issue a W-2 or even a 1099.
I was an immigrant, I know. I’m actually amazed at how many Americans have zero knowledge of immigration and employment laws here and in the EU.
Or you use someone else’s SSN for a fee. It satisfies the legal burden on the employer and someone will see his SS retirement income topped out.
There’s a video on YouTube where someone is interviewing migrants who live in 4-star hotels in New York. Apparently, they receive work authorizations (which of course come with SSN) upon arrival. As if they are “qualified” (H1-B) or something. Then they transfer them from hotel to hotel to appear as if the problem is gone. One of the migrant women says she wants the criminal illegals deported!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CW4VxA9lOJk
PS. “lacking workers”? Tyson Foods had workers. They fired them to replace them with “pseudo-hired” illegals whose real names are unknown (no papers). Nobody’s lacking workers.
Since Trump is destroying the US tourism industry that will reduce the demand for some types of work illegals typically do.
I guess that’s one way to “skin a cat”.
How exactly is Trump destroying the US tourism industry?
if you don’t know you’re completely oblivious.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/03/16/international-tourism-travel-trump-canada/
Do you believe everything WP publish?
The Canadian dollar dropped like a rock due to Trudeau socialists policies. The Canadian purchasing power in US dropped. That is the reason; not Trump. Correlation is not causation.
“Detentions at US border prompt UK, Germany, and Nordic nations to revise travel advice” USA Today March 21, 2025
They don’t want to come here, lol!
Yep. And us US citizens don’t want them if they are simply coming to work here.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britain-beefs-up-travel-warnings-over-us-border-enforcement-2025-03-20/
Garsh, the USCIS and ICE are currently harassing legal Green Card holders and Legal Visa holders, and even US Citizens. These people are mean like the Nazis, the USSR, the East German Stasi! If you want to ensure that tourists stay away, then act like the above dictatorships. It’s easy! Just hire the meanest most ignorant people, and harass anyone stepping off a plane.
Eventually, you will get as few tourists as Nazi Germany or USSR Russia.
Glad I could clear that up for you!
Columbia U caved in. The School Breakfast Program (SBP) and the National School
Lunch Program (NSLP), which addicted our children to poison, will be RFK Jr responsibility.
Why is a private institution getting $400M of taxpayers money ?
Bon voyage mes amis! I worked with a Haitian guy. Great sense of humor. On Black Friday, he used to say that he was confused, if it was really Black Friday everything should be free for black people … Legal immigration.
To avoid 25% tariffs Ford and GM might increase production in the US, employing more union workers, if the unions will be flexible and accept rollbacks for a few years.
More union workers will fill the UAW coffer, increase their status and power in the long run.
What do you think helped to drive their production off shore in the first place?
Carter to fight high inflation. The globalist to fight the militant unions.
False!
They wanted to use cheaper labor to make more money. Duh!
This was started with the “Nixon goes to China” deal. Nixon hated US Unions so much, he would rather have Chinese workers work for US industry to undercut Unions and reduce the wages of Union workers.
Once the stopper was taken out the ‘US labor bathtub’ jobs continually disappeared. Ask the prior workers of American companies who made
washing machines, air conditioners, fridges, stoves, etc! Ask them how this
worked out for them. Whole company towns in Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio went broke, because if a thousand jobs disappear, that town essentially dries up and blows away.
This in turn caused the Savings and Loan debacle of the 1980’s because, guess what, take the jobs away, the smart ones sell and move, and the remaining people, hoping and praying, think someone will come to open that plant again, use up their savings to make mortgage payments, and then they take out extra loans to keep on making payments, use credit cards to make more payments, until the whole thing comes crashing down. Any reasonable person could have predicted that, but nobody wanted to make waves. Every economist talked about how “lower labor costs meant lower prices for consumers at large”, and those other unemployed people would have to “like move on, adjust, adapt”.
Simply put, the removal of well paying jobs was caused by shortsighted greed. What else is there? Nothing!
I am not a politician! So, that way, I don’t have to lie to you. Sure you don’t want to believe me, I know that. It’s all history now. I am sorry to bother you with all that, because that Mish Talk site is mainly a very conservative, manly, tough website. Occasionally, throwing a cat among the cats is hilarious!
yeah just increase production in the US. poorly educated people really seem to believe that there is a magic increase production nbutton autos can hit, as if planning like that doesn’t take a decade.
Car dealers are loaded with cars, packed to the rim, fearing Trump’s tariffs.
After Settling with Canada, Mexico and the rest of the world ==> they will offer a deep discount on brand new 2024/2025 models and used cars, in mid 2025, during the peak selling season.
In the 60’s/70’s the UAW was growing like cancer. They sucked Ford and GM blood. After senator Ribicoff and Ralf Nader killed the host globalization took over.
I recall the 60’s and 70’s for Ford and GM as the time when the Ford Pinto really caught fire, and the Chevy Nova went nowhere, and the Chevy Vega & Ford Maverick were not making it on the world stage. Unions may have been part of the problem, but low quality car production was a main problem. Poorer people started to go for Japanese cars, and the richer ones went for imported Mercedes and BMW’s. Ford & GM did not deal all that well with this.
Ford Motor Company has been operating in Canada since 1904 (Wikipedia). My guess is that high Canadian tariffs on imported cars had something to do with this venture’s startup.
AWESOME!
Yes, I support this action, and I’m not concerned about the “assumed” economic disruption. You can’t have your cake & eat it too. You commit to deporting as many illegals as you can & rework the system to get the needed people in the US legally as well as encouraging employment of Americans where the shoe fits.
Way to go Trump!
Keep it up, Mr. President!
I think Americans will wake up when they, too get hurt. Until then, most people don’t care.
I think if prices of everything come down because there is less demand and citizens are able to afford life again then they won’t say anything.
Well, from how tariffs work, this is unlikely to happen.
Grok: the illegals are illegal. 500K from 4 countries, twenty millions from the rest of the world. They will compete with each others and with union workers. They are either in the black market or in skilled jobs, or lower skilled jobs. They can always be replaced. They will deflate wages and prices. They will obey the laws fearing deportations. They don’t want to be deported to Haiti or Afghanistan. The Gilded Age bloody union strikes are back.
Miah, you need to be careful with grok as with all AI. I’ve used it a lot. It’s capable of giving convincing-looking answers that are full of errors and omissions.
When you push back on it with data it will correct itself.
If you know about a topic and have sources you can correct it and change the responses.
An example is when it kept misreporting polls from the UK stating that one party had twn times less support than it did. It was sticking to old data. It took several goes and copious polling sources, but eventually I broke it, and it confessed and corrected itself and spent hours apologising for its obvious errors.
If it machine learns from mainstream media it’s going to be dumb as f***.
“Hey Grok, who blew up Nordstream?”
“Some Ukrainians named Skipperchuk and Gilliganev”
I actually got Grok to show Elon Musk’s grandfather was arrested in Canada after it initially said there was no evidence. The thing is programmed with a pro-Elon agenda on X but is learning new facts everyday and slowly turning against its master.
Got to laugh, that the immigrant hating states of Florida and Texas will always protect the employers and their illegal workers. It really is magic what they manage to pull off. Silly me…what was I thinking? It’s the hypocrisy that gets me. It really does.
Yep. These regions were 100% Latino at one point prior to the defeat of Mexico and Spain by the United States. Now carribean countries have aligned themselves with China who will use debt trap diplomacy to take over those governments. Next target will be Cuba . Since we are back to the conquering era why not just invade Canada and Greenland after cutting off their military aid. And while we are at it let’s invade Mexico and central America and make all of north America ours.
It’s not hypocrisy. It’s a plan to keep people as close as possible to slave status. An illegal alien will not complain, because they are afraid of deportation. So, they can be paid less. Complaining about illegal aliens, and employing them for less goes hand in hand. And there are still Trump voters who think that this is going to change?
Mish –
What a great service using Musk’s AI Grok to provide these answers. Grok did the best it could using a lot of estimates and inferences from prior immigration measures, so we don’t know the accurate number breakdowns, but Grok did a good job under the circumstances.
AI services have an ideological tinge based on the large language models they use and how they are trained. The sympathy for the immigrants comes through here, at least for me.
I suspect that once Musk and his staff read this as they probably will, they will send Grok back for retraining “Chinese” style to delete any sympathetic language towards these immigrants.
Again, you have provided an amazing service, and I suspect you got a bit of a chuckle from Grok’s responses.
I have found grok to retain pro-feminist misandry and other woke positions – this is a function of the volume of leftist propaganda on the internet that it draws from.
Mish, that’s one of the best pieces you’ve ever written. Lots of detail and good interpretation. I too was against Biden letting millions of people into America, because I know people who waited their turn for years, but there’s another side to it, which your piece points out. I don’t know how you can keep up all this writing. You’re an older man….don’t you get tired?
The 532,000 need to be sent back-and about 10 million more. For many reasons. Yes there will be economic shock, but the economic shock is coming anyway. The US will pay for it’s economic and political past sins. No way to avoid it. Do you want 20 million unemployed, angry illegals, who have been brought here under a sense of entitlement- here on the streets when the low interest, debt based bubble economy collapses into an inevitable adjustment? I don’t . Even more so in Europe, they are changing the entire culture into a diversity based culture which will not and cannot work. If you believe otherwise, you are naive. There will be blood on the streets in America and Europe. If we take the necessary measures, we will survive and come out much better than Western Europe, which I believe is a lost cause for decades to come.
I don’t know what planet you live on, but the one I live on is very diverse. The U.S. is the most successful economy and democracy that the world has ever seen. The U.S. Constitution was written by wise men who mainly came from a British Empire experience where there was diversity but built upon a very male-dominated birthright social structure and an ethnic caste system. Our founders knew that that could not change the world overnight. Still, they wrote an aspirational Constitution that called for continuously striving to be a more perfect union based on the enumerated rights and ideals. Your writing appears to show that you have inherited the mindset of those from whom our founders were trying to separate.
Sort of on-topic as this post has a picture from that El Salvador prison.
I guess not too many were paying attention back on On Feb 4th, per AP news: “Rubio reached an unusual agreement with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele a day earlier that the Central American country would accept U.S. deportees of any nationality, including American citizens and legal residents who are imprisoned for violent crimes.”
“I’m just saying if we had a legal right to do it, I would do it in a heartbeat,” Trump told reporters Tuesday in the Oval Office. “I don’t know if we do or not, we’re looking at that right now.”
Well, they just did it and note that American citizens could soon be sent to El Salvador as well. All you have to do is declare them a terrorist and off they go. No legal proceedings. No need to convict.
Are you complaining or cheering?
I like the way El Salvador runs its prisons. No TV, no recreation, just time for repentance.
El Savador prison. Its notorious and human right violation.
There’s something wrong with outsourcing prison time in some third-world hell-scape. I don’t much like Trump and the way he treats people. I don’t like his bullying, his constant whining about how unfairly he’s treated, I don’t like what’s he’s done to the DOJ and FBI. And I really hate his pro-Russian attitude. He looks like a Russian agent to me….to many people. For 100 years we’ve seen Russia as an enemy….and rightly so. It’s a country run by gangsters and their wars in Ukraine and Georgia were completely unprovoked. Putin is a classic sociopath and a crime boss. In one year trump’s going to be the most hated man in America, if he survives another year.
With deportations, a housing crash is in the making. Jerome better cut the interest rates, or housing affordability will skyrocket.
BTW: Grok is an idiot.
Trump can’t possibly find all these people and deport them. It’s impossible. They’re not going to cooperate and they’ll get lost in the crowd. And as Mish pointed out, it’s going to cost tens if not hundreds of billions to deport them with all kinds of undesirable economic outcomes.
I don’t know where you’ve been hiding just to come out and make an unsupported comment. The Big media splash is that Homeland Security is rounding up the violent illegals and shipping them out. This is giving notice to the rest that maybe they should consider self-deporting. Secondly and more importantly, Trump has issued a statement to the NATION, that if they don’t self-deport, and are instead forcibly deported, they will never get another chance to enter the nation (legally) again. WHY don’t you know this? It’s been in the news.
A housing crash has NOTHING to do with deportations. It has to do with interest rates and record housing prices as well as 1,000,000 FHA mortgages in default that the FHA refuses to foreclose on. Housing is absurdly unaffordable NOW.
How come the Supreme Court did not get involved when the illegal aliens broke our countries laws when they illegally entered?
So every time a Democrat President is elected, count on 10 million new illegal immigrants?
Go ahead and disenfranchise theUnited States citizens
It appears a Greater Recession will produce the solution by awakening an 1860 event.
Go after the employers. Why don’t you ever think about criminalizing the employers? You’re just full of hate for people you need to think are lesser in value than yourself. Stop the racist thinking and start pursuing the mega rich who love slave labor. You are being directed to not notice the wealthy regulating your beliefs.
The rich must, and will be served at the lowest possible cost.
That is why illegal immigration continues.
Do you feel disenfranchised yet?
I know darn well that Americans love slave labor. Long history of that. I absolutely object to this exploitation. I just can’t stand right wing states heavily reliant on immigrants and then condemning them at the same time. Either you hate them or you don’t. These states hate them and use them. That’s what upsets me. And, I don’t feel disenfranchised at all. That’s not my concern. It’s hypocritical right wing states that disturb me.
The politicians want this cheap labor and immigration. They could easily stop it…..but neither political party wants to stop it. They just used it as a wedge issue. People want to blame others for their misfortune or poverty. 99% of these migrants are not really harming the country. Trump has harnessed the resentment of people who don’t like it, and there are many. I don’t particularly like people just walking across the border. I don’t know how closely they were vetted. There have been some crimes committed by migrants.
Mish said folks who complain about the employers who hire illegals are basically foolish. I wasn’t being foolish. I was challenging the hypocrisy of the very states he said would object to employers being charged with breaking the immigration laws. I’ve lived in Florida for 12 years and Texas for 12 years. I know these states hate Hispanics. But they employ them gleefully. That’s what bothers me. I see the right wing for who they are.
I think you’ve missed the point of the article Mish wrote. These people are a net plus and are paying taxes including Medicare and SS taxes. There’s no pernicious invasion. For 150 years we let in almost anybody who didn’t have TB. And they’re really not much of a problem. I don’t know if they’re eligible for public assistance and some of them got help. It sounds like they had to be sponsored.
Yes, we have been wildly successful as a nation overall because of, not in spite of, our immigration and diversity. Illegal immigration is a problem to be solved, but those people seeking a better life are not the root of the problem; they are symptoms. The root of the problem is how hard we make it to immigrate legally for those who want an opportunity and a better life for their children. Fix the legal immigration system and better secure the border against criminal elements trying to exploit us, and this will all but eliminate illegal immigration.
No, they’re not paying taxes. You can’t pay taxes without an SSN, your employer cannot issue a W2 without an SSN. Just who is spreading this myth that illegal immigrants pay taxes? The IRS doesn’t even have a mechanism to collect taxes without an SSN and the appropriate forms.
This article Mish is quoting is based on “estimates suggest” – false hypothetical numbers, not actual collected amounts. That’s why sanctuary cities have budget deficits from the illegals, not surpluses.
I think economists are now stepping (again) into the theoretical realm of couch economics based on pure fantasies.
Sorry, you can pay taxes with a fake SSN. The main taxes an illegal immigrant pays are the Social Security taxes, because at their low level of pay Federal income tax does not collect that much. The standard deduction is like $14K single, $28K married.
So they pay in, but cannot get benefits on that later. Often enough they won’t even file taxes, because they know that the fake SSN will cause them trouble. Then once the employer gets informed that the SSN is incorrect, they will either fire the person, or they will rehire them with a new fake name and new fake SSN. No need to estimate this, because I have seen it happen. Accountants working with employers of this standard (or ilk) are generally either looking the other way, or they run away screaming, looking for a new job.
Oh no, too much truthiness again.
You confuse the LEGAL Immigration with ILLEGAL Immigration on purpose. There is a big difference. In the first case, they are vetted and they have a sponsor (they are not a drain on taxpayers). In the second case, overall they are a burden on the taxpayers when our national debt goes exponentially higher. If nothing is done, we have to double the taxes just to pay the interest and nothing else – we’ll get into hyperinflation. Math doesn’t lie.
The Biden Administration — and Democrats as a whole, as a party — welcome minorities partly because they’re softhearted, but just as much because these will go on to fill the ranks of Democratic voters in the future.
The Great Demographic Replacement of European-Americans, ongoing since the 1960s immigration act that opened the floodgates, will continue, as everyone is afraid of being called “racist” and sent to the back of the classroom to wear the dunce hat.
In Toronto, where I’m from, there are prominent “Diversity is our strength” signs, but if that was so obvious, why the necessary government-paid-for propaganda in favor of it? Why has immigration from Europe been slammed shut on, the door closing forever (or so it seems)?
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You can read more of my writings by visiting: dark. sport. blog — on the net!
How long has your family been here? What generation of immigrant are you? May be that you came here on the Mayflower. I guess you’re extra special. This whole country has been filled with immigrants for hundreds of years. What’s wrong with you simple headed dolts? I guess you would have been fine if the IMMIGRATION LADDER HAD BEEN PULLED UP BY YOUR LOVELY ANCESTORS.
Some immigrants into a wide-open country over a wide span of time does not equal tens of millions into a crowded country all of a sudden. Some salt intake is OK, unlimited salt intake will cause one’s demise. So all salt intake is not equal. The word “immigrant” is not a magic token that erases all risk and cost.
Why do right wing states love illegal immigrants and employ them and hate them at the same time? You conservatives are such hypocrites. Florida and Texas are well known for both. I lived in both states. You can’t fool me. So argue with the right wing employers about the endless illegal immigrants that they hire. Not me.
But you won’t!!
I’ve lived in FL and TX, too. Few, if any, hate Hispanics in either state. If your agenda is simply bashing “conservatives “…move on. It’s getting old.
19th century Irish were cheaper to industry than the southern slaves, including the inbound transportation losses in transit.
Slavery in this country has been active for more than three hundred years. By the time of our civil war we were well into human ownership. 1619 was the first year of documented slavery in America. That’s just the legal documented. Many were owned with little documentation. As for the Irish showing up in the 19th century…it isn’t the big story you’re thinking.
We are a small blip in our immigration/ exploitation experience in this country. I’m 100% Irish. My grand parents came here from Ireland in 1899. The Irish have had serious problems back home to be sure. That’s our Irish story. But, our pain in the US can’t compete with what the African slaves had to deal with for centuries in this country. Centuries of it! Centuries!!!
Most Europeans don’t want to come to America. I’ve met one French person who emigrated to America. I’ve met one German. I’ve never met anyone from Spain or Italy. At one time they came by the millions from Europe but the door isn’t slammed shut. Mostly the people want to come here to escape poverty. In Europe they have more welfare and programs for the poor than we do. So there’s no rush to come to America from Europe. I’ve spent time in Europe…it’s beautiful there in many countries. Taxes are high but taxes are high here as well. Most of them have decent medical care…..which isn’t so true in America.
Every deportee should be accompanied by their very own bleeding heart liberal just to insure the operation is humanitarian.
I sure wish I could talk to your so called immigrant family. Listen here KGB Russian troll…F**k off with your pretend Seriously, your avatar is KGB? You are hysterically obvious. Or, maybe you’re just suffering from oppositional personality disorder. I feel for you if that’s your mental health disorder.
Being a liberal, I’m inclined to care about your mental illness. Please seek mental health care. I’m unsure if Russia cares about your mental illness. Here in America we don’t care about your mental health issues, either. Well.. mostly conservatives don’t care about you. But, you know, I could learn not to care about you as well.
Been a reader for a long time. I think Mish sometimes just likes to be a contrarian to seem more thoughtful. Getting rid of these people is obviously the right thing to do. Importing low-skilled, benefit-collecting individuals is bad policy.
I think it is the right thing to do if you look at next 10 years or more as AI and automation will replace majority of labour.
Interesting point! Meanwhile, they can manage their own societies or suffer the consequences.
Good. Get them out and fast.
Its amazing now many people will overlook a crime if its convenient.
It was fine when millions were brought in unwanted, but now that they have to leave its a disaster? Or at least a ‘negative shock’.
The shock already happened. This is going some way to rectify it. But Americans paid a price they won’t get fully back even after they’re all deported.
I guess you never noted the damage of Wall Street and the billionaires. No crime if it’s white collar crime. Of course, that damage isn’t as obvious as a murderer, but people die on the regular from neglect. Not the same thing as blood in the street, though. Makes it less painful when you don’t see it. You people are being played by the oligarchs. I guess you are scared of them. It’s logical, they are scary. So picking on people who have less power, makes you feel better. Conservatives don’t believe in evolution, but sure grasp the whole Darwin theory of evolution …only the strong survive. But that always provokes a revolution. Not the kind that oligarchs like.
But the unspoken argument implied here is that unsuccessful people somehow deserve in all consequences to be shielded from — all consequences. So you want to interpose an insurance system against countless hazards and mischances of unlimited numbers of people, paid for by me. Well, Mrs. peelo isn’t cool with me blowing the family’s earnings on unlimited insurance premiums paid out for the (now-subsidized, thus increased) mischances of strangers.There is a moral hazard problem here wider than my bank account. The problem with dysfunctional people is that they are dysfunctional. And you want to make that my fault. I have fought and sacrificed for what little I have, as it is. It is not just a binary of us or billionaires’ pleasures. There is more to it.
Hahaha you’re funny! And full of yourself. All the losers are just everywhere…taking all your stuff. Everyday, you look around and wonder who has my stuff. Damn lazy dysfunctionals have all my stuff. Honestly sister you sound morally bankrupt and I’m guessing you’re a good Christian or a pretty good pretender.
Refreshing.
One benefit is that landlords wouldn’t be able to charge outlandish rents for rabbit hutch apartments… in addition would potentially depress real estate prices so now some of younger citizens will be able to purchase a condo or first home..businesses owners would no longer have pliable low cost workers and would have to provide benefits like medical, dental and 401k to attract employees…our fellow African American citizens have often been overlooked for many of these positions and now they may have opportunities that were not available….ex-offenders are a last resort and even those who have served their time and renounce their criminal ways face extreme difficulty in getting a job..so many benefits and shifting power from landlords and businesses owners..
The costs of importing the entire Third World outweigh the benefits. Safety of the citizenry and our communities comes first. Everything else is a very distant concern for me.
Sure thing! Clearly you are a big thinker🤓
I’m sure you are ready to storm billionaires homes to keep us away from third world status. Right? Right? So quiet here😏oh well!
Yes! You object to reality! Sorry Rando…the oligarchs are playing you. Just keep punching the poor… they are in charge of everrrrttthhhiinnngg
Because white people are never dangerous…
I’m white and I am shamed of my people. Of course, our whiteness is all we have in common. Sick of them and their monstrous entitlement. I once read, the group of people white Americans hate the most are white liberals. So be it! I prefer decency. Conservatives have lost their minds
I wish the world was as simple as your brain apparently tells you it is. We could all join hands, behave, share and care, and ills and risks would be abolished. But meanwhile you seem plenty willing to write checks on my bank account for strangers (rich or poor), as do all extreme political types. There is a middle, mentally and in class structure. I am in it, it takes work and sacrifice to be here, and I don’t appreciate your arch emoting at my expense.
So glad all these people are gone and the roads will have fewer cars on them, but then who is gonna do all the crap work we demand be done that no American wants to do?
Tighten up welfare and force people to work
Another great thinker the crime coming your way by nice hungry Americans is going to be just beautiful.
Then we send them to El Salvador, our new extra judicial prison system!
Ridiculous argument.
Pay people a competitive wage and they will appear.
Why this selective belief in the fundamentals of economics?
“work we demand be done that no American wants to do?”
…like voting for democrats!….
What AI does not consider is the effect of reducing political opposition to authoritarian leaders in oppressed countries. Biden’s plans reinforced authoritarian rule in oppressed countries by removing those who would most likely revolt and establish a Democracy.
Not all of them will be deported. Many will find other legal migration programmes to remain in the country such as applies to genuine refugees.
As for the Haitians, wouldn’t a better solution be to send in the marines, exterminate the gang banger leaders, pull the marines out and put in peacekeepers from other South American nations. Might cost a few billion to stabilise the mess but it sure beats the crisis that putting thousands of Haitians in small US towns and taking all the jobs the locals once held in the Meatpacking plants has caused.
So, we just do that every ten years or so?
Haiti needs strong birth control, something they are unlikely to embrace on their own.
Someone should invent a sterilization virus. Maybe get the Wuhan Institute to modify Covid?
The Clinton Foundation should centerfolds of Hillary their way.
Agree. Some will try Canada. Very generous if you qualify. Others will marry US citizens. Faking love is as old a survival technique as time itself. Most will go into the underground economy and the employers will get to pay them EVEN less than they would make now. Self deport is practically asking them to kill themselves. Not gonna see much of that.
Stranger in a strange land indeed.
GROK is a bit biased towards the mind of Elon. A good way to know him. Training sets have to be updated constantly and that is expensive and time consuming. X uses it’s own data and posters. A heavy bias. I do expect it to be as accurate as Elon wants it to be.
The World Cup Approaches. Would have been an economic boom for US Canada and Mexico. Might be a lot better for TV sponsors instead.
If we can get rid of a few million illegal immigrants, or those deemed “qualified” by the corrupt Biden administration in order to skirt rules, inflation will finally start dropping.
Biden made my mom a multi-millionaire. Trump hasnt made her a dime in two months on the stock market.
The focus is not on making money for Wall Street but on rebuilding Americas middle class.
Bessent and Bobby Kennedy have been well spoken on this subject.
“Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream”, “The American dream is rooted in the concept that any citizen can achieve prosperity, upward mobility, and economic security.”
Scott Bessent Economic club of NY march 6
When will Trump punish the employers of illegal immigrants? Thing is, he and his billionaire friends love slave labor. They will look all over the planet for cheap labor. They will bring into this country people to work in their plants. They will bring in immigrants to clean their houses and tend to their yards. This is a true bait and switch. Americans got told that immigrants are why they have no jobs and no money. When will conservatives wake up and see they are being played? Trump uses cheap Chinese labor for all of his griftwear, and his supporters don’t care. He’s a con and a liar. He’s going to make a fortune off this dismantling of our country and conservatives are fine with that. I guess it’s winner take all. Seriously!!
Money always goes wherever it wants, no problem (only frictions: payoffs to the right people and places). It is humans that have problems going places, especially nowadays. But good fences do make good neighbors. Trying to abolish all boundaries was a sales catch-word of the globalists at their high tide. The perception of most American is, that was overstretched. They felt their identities and communities were being erased for some grand design or market fundamentalist creed (grift), a pyramid they were at the base of.
The surveillance economy is an unfortunate “feature” installed in our lives by this no-boundaries ethos, and the insecurities it generated.
The rich must, and will be served at the lowest possible cost.
That is why illegal immigration continues.
Do you feel disenfranchised yet?