The pre-shocks have begun. But the big shock is on deck.
Biggest Tariff Shock Since the Great Depression
The Washington Post reports Trump Aides Prep New Tariffs on Imports Worth Trillions for ‘Liberation Day’.
White House aides are preparing to impose new tariffs on most imports on April 2, laying the groundwork for an escalation in global economic hostilities that President Donald Trump has called “Liberation Day.”
A person familiar with internal planning, speaking on the condition of anonymity to reflect private deliberations, confirmed administration officials are preparing tariffs on “trillions” of dollars in imports.
“It’s a liberation day for our country because we’re going to be getting back a lot of the wealth that we so foolishly gave up to other countries, including friend and foe,” Trump told reporters on Monday.
Trump has said the U.S. should match these tariffs with “reciprocal” duties that he believes will force other countries to lower their duties on U.S.-made products.
“If India, China, or any other country hits us with a 100 or 200 percent tariff on American-made goods, we will hit them with the same exact tariff,” Trump said in a video released during the presidential campaign. “In other words, 100 percent is 100 percent. If they charge us, we charge them — an eye for an eye, a tariff for a tariff, same exact amount.”
On a trade-weighted basis, the average U.S. tariff is 2.2 percent. Japan’s is 1.9 percent and the European Union’s is 2.7 percent, slightly higher than the U.S. average, according to the World Trade Organization.
Administration officials are debating what legal authority the president can invoke to impose a reciprocal system, according to one person familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
Trump has the power under existing trade laws to impose some tariffs immediately, such as on goods from China, which are covered under a 2018 investigation of Chinese trade practices. A 1930 trade law permits the president to impose tariffs of up to 50 percent on goods from a country that he determines has discriminated against U.S. goods.
Imposing new import taxes on other goods could require months of preparatory work. Jamieson Greer, the president’s chief trade representative, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are among those most attuned to the legal issues surrounding Trump’s plan, wanting any action to survive a courtroom challenge, the person said. Navarro, the White House senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, is among those pushing for swift and aggressive action, the person said.
Spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement. “President Trump has assembled the best and brightest trade team in modern American history to reignite American Greatness, and they are hard at work following the same playbook.”
On Tuesday, the government said manufacturing output in February rose sharply, reaching its highest level in more than two years. But analysts said the jump was probably a temporary reaction to the flurry of presidential tariff announcements.
“Manufacturers raced to produce goods in February before large tariffs on imports could be imposed, as well as to meet a temporary tariff-induced spike in orders from households and businesses,” wrote Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics. [That was my theory as well]
Prepare for Liberation
Trump is about to liberate consumers from their money and countless small businesses from their companies.
“People are still underestimating how big Trump’s plans are for tariffs on April 2. (or soon thereafter),” says Heather Long, Washington Post economic writer.
Tariffs Reduce Income
Erica York VP of Federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation made four pertinent comments.
- Tariffs reduce output and lead to either a reduction in nominal incomes or, depending on the Fed, an increase in the overall price level.
- A consumption tax can lead to increases in the general price level in the economy or to reductions in nominal wages and profit rates.
- For wage earners, the distinction is unimportant, because they face the same reduction in buying power whether their nominal wage falls or the prices they face increase.
- Contrary to the president’s promises, his tariffs will cause short-term pain and long-term pain, even with the ways people and businesses change their behavior.
Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs
Please consider Time (or Buying American) Won’t Erase the Economic Harm of Higher Tariffs by Erica York.
Key Points
- While tariffs would raise revenue for the US government, that revenue would come at a high cost to the American economy overall.
- Tariffs are redistributive. Some domestic producers benefit but at the expense of other people and businesses in the domestic economy.
- History shows tariffs raise costs and prices and lead to lasting economic harm, such as lower production and living standards, whether we keep importing goods or switch to domestic alternatives.
President Trump acknowledges his tariffs will “short term [cause] some little pain” but claims they’ll be “worth the price that must be paid.” Trump is right that his tariffs will cause “a little disturbance,” but unfortunately, he’s wrong that with time tariffs will bring wealth and jobs creation.
History shows tariffs lead to lasting economic harm, such as lower production and incomes. Data from 151 countries from 1963 through 2014 shows higher tariffs reduce output and productivity, increase unemployment, and worsen inequality. Studies of US tariffs in 2018-2019 confirm they failed to boost employment and instead harmed manufacturing due to rising input costs and foreign retaliation.
When the United States imposes a tariff, it increases the price of imported goods for people and businesses in the United States. (In recent experience, import prices increased by nearly the full amount of the tariff, but even with less than complete “pass-through” of tariffs, import prices would rise.) Higher prices make us import less (which harms foreign businesses as US sales fall), but US production does not automatically grow as a result.
For this reason, tariffs are redistributive. They discourage purchases of foreign-produced goods, encourage buyers to switch to higher-priced domestically-produced goods, and place a burden on US exporters. Some domestic producers benefit but at the expense of other people and businesses in the domestic economy.
The tough choices and trade-offs do not go away in the long run. Instead, over time, tariffs tend to diminish productivity, decreasing how much output we get for the time and resources used.
For instance, the United States is the largest exporter of aircraft, and the largest importer of textiles. Higher tariffs would incentivize manufacturing activity to move from aircraft and toward textile production, so we would producer fewer airplanes for export and more T-shirts for domestic consumption.
Similar shifts would occur across the economy, incentivizing more resources to be used in producing lower-end goods we previously imported at lower prices. Increasing prices we pay for the same goods has the same effect on people as lowering their wages. Consider a real-world example of washing machine tariffs put in place in 2018 under the first Trump administration: the tariffs supported the creation of about 1,800 new factory jobs (with wages starting at $16 per hour) at a cost to US consumers of $800,000 per job.
A Clear Explanation of How Reciprocal Tariffs Will Work
In case you missed it, please consider A Clear Explanation of How Reciprocal Tariffs Will Work
There are many conflicting reports on what “reciprocal” means, but I condense things down to the core idea.
Related Posts
March 4, 2025: A Global Trade War Has Started – Global Recession Will Follow
The most significant global trade war since Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression is underway.
March 9, 2025: Cheese Was a “Key Achievement” of Trump’s USMCA Trade Agreement
Trump is complaining about Canada’s cheese tariffs. In 2018, he was bragging about cheese.
That post is a real hoot. Please give it a look.
March 16, 2025: Trump Wants a Weak Dollar But Needs a Strong One
Trump wants the Fed to cut interest rates to weaken the dollar and boost exports. But that’s not what helped him get elected.
For discussion of the small business hit, please see How One Small Business Owner Is Coping With Trump’s Tariffs
Fifty-four percent of small businesses polled said that tariffs would negatively affect their companies, while just 11 percent said they would benefit.
Please read the above post and multiply it by tens of thousands of small businesses.
It’s exactly the kind of thing Erica York is writing about.
“How long will the ‘suckers’ continue to find a store of value in the US dollar?”
Sunriver, your question shows you do not understand the trade relationship at all.
It is an identity, not subject to debate, that when foreign nations hold a trade surplus with the US, they MUST as a result hold US dollar denominated assets.
Now, China would buy Boeing or Apple or whatever with those dollars, but the US would say no. Instead they hold interest bearing US treasuries.
So, who is the sucker here? You can’t have it both ways.
I thought that you said that you listen to Luke Gromen. China hasn’t net bought new U.S. Treasury securities in over a decade. They have been buying gold. The best thing that the U.S. could do would be to relieve the dollar of its role as a store of value. This would drive down the value of the dollar. I think that is coming through a revaluation of gold and perhaps other assets. The world is changing quickly, and things have to get sorted quickly. Check this graph — https://en.macromicro.me/series/3357/us-treasury-bonds-major-foreign-holders-china
All roads lead to inflation.
Crisis coming if global central banks lose confidence in the dollar. Best thing is stick to cutting costs home. And dial down the animosity. Continue trade.
Well said!
Wait china has been buying gold to the tune of trillions of dollars and the price of gold has just gone up to $3000 over a decade? The math doesn’t add up.
False
Luke Gromen is Wrong.
And I have discussed this countless times.
China masks its purchase of Treasuries in State Owned Entities.
Gromen is a hyperinflationist currency crank.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/under-what-conditions-would-china-dump-us-treasuries-or-dollar-holdings/
I mentioned China + Treasuries over 1,000 times
https://mishtalk.com/?s=china%20US%20treasuries
Interesting. You’re going back in time a bit. I can’t remember that far back. Gromen thinks that the Chinese have been parking dollars in the NASDAQ, but that we’ve instructed them to stop. I’m wondering if this is a reason why the European stock markets have done so well lately. We (the US) don’t want the NASDAQ to be used as a reserve asset. This makes sense. The US is pushing for a neutral reserve asset or assets. I don’t doubt what you’re saying. I’m trying to find more recent citations from the Internet to back you up. It is a confusing time. Gromen is actually optimistic, but, like everybody, he’s expecting inflation.
Thanks
I have discussed this many times, with answers from both Pettis and Setser. I did not know how receptive you would be, but both maintain China is masking treasuries.
Look for those posts. Pettis Treasuries or Setser Treasuries
Thanks
Yes, gromen is one of the many 2-bit YouTube gurus that spout convincing-sounding garbage routinely.
Tariffs worked in the 18th century to favor the local production of commodities.
They do not work with global supply chains for manufactures of things you are not producing and for which you lack the capital goods and infrastructure.
If tariffs worked to create industry, then Mozambique could build bridges and electrical generating plants by making it ruinously expensive to import electrical equipment, bulldozers, and asphalt.
All this theorizing misses the point.
Trump suffers from a type of psychosis, called megalomania, which is a B-spectrum progressive personality disorder in the DSM 5. [All his officials keep going on about how great he is, every few seconds, and how they’re just carrying out his initiatives.]
He cannot read or digest new facts. Everything in the world is related to inflating his importance and greatness and his huge mandate, best mandate ever.
He does know how to count money, though, and when he sees an outflow of dollars, it means Americans are being suckered and played, subsidizing the rest of the world. It must be stopped. (Forget about those dollars not actually leaving American shores and being recycled into treasuries or American securities or investments … too complicated by a country mile).
Whether it is Gaza, Ukraine, or trade deficits, he remains convinced there must be a way to do a deal which has the dollars flowing towards America and which redounds to his unique spell over events.
“we’re going to be getting back a lot of the wealth that we so foolishly gave up to other countries, including friend and foe,” Trump told reporters on Monday.”
That’s Not What They Gave Other Countries.
USAID – About Propaganda – Coups – Color Revolutions – Regime Change – BioWeapons- War Profit$$$
I’m far more interested to see what the effects around the world.
It would not surprise me at all if trump capitulates on the imposition of the tariffs, at least to some degree, before April 2nd.
He watches the market more than he admits.
Tariffs finance the gov and protected our industrial base between 1870 and the 1920’s. The stock market collapsed after: 1) Hoover frivolous spending 2) NY Fed and the flyover Fed divorce case 3) Wilson eliminated the 90 Days “Real Good Notes” which paid workers in Germany, GB and the US.
“Expect To Suffer” Why?
I felt no “pre-shocks” and I pay people to look for them? I hope I also don’t feel the big shock thats on deck! When gain?
I hear chatter on tariffs, but that was yesterday, or last week, and yesterday too.oh, and today of course, it’s “News Dump” Friday. Of course we also heard from another anonymous, um wait 2, or maybe it was 4, it is hard to keep track seeing has we don’t really know Anything, really, it’s anonymous after all.
Let’s not forget the always present: “If This Happens” or “If That Comes True” or “I’m Positive It’s Happening” or… well I think you have all hears them too. Over and over…
Trump has the power under existing trade laws to impose some tariffs immediately
A silly point, as usual by someone, was made. “Imposing new import taxes on other goods could require months of preparatory work” Um, so why are we talking about it now then. That would mean by definition, that Tariffs are Months Away!
We Got This Too: Spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement: “President Trump has assembled the best and brightest trade team in modern American history to reignite American Greatness, and they are hard at work following the same playbook.” AND On Tuesday, the government said manufacturing output in February rose sharply, reaching its highest level in more than two years.
“Prepare for Liberation” If what I have seen to date is being referred to as “Liberation” Then Liberate Away!
Some may say: “Trump is about to liberate consumers from their money and countless small businesses from their companies.”
I Say: I refuse to worry myself sick about something I have no control over. I will choose the “Wait and See” Approach and take it from there. Only I can do what’s Best for Me, and I will depending which way the wind ends up blowing.
Have a Nice Evening!!
Cubs fans suffered for 108 years. Prob still on social security since Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance.
I know. Let’s just call the whole thing off. Let’s go back to the way that we were. Do nothing. Just to make things easier, remove the debt ceiling. Completely reinstitute USAID with all of its corruption and all other federal programs. Hire back all government employees. Let’s see — US federal debt — $36 trillion. Unfunded liabilities — $80 trillion. Let’s keep the U.S. defense establishment completely dependent on component parts from our chief adversary, China. Yeah, let’s get those numbers back to growing unchecked again. Interest rates will rise. Who cares? Interest on the debt will be above $1 trillion, because rates will go up because the U.S. will be considered a 3rd world borrower, and nobody is going to want to buy anything other than T Bills. The Fed can go back to acting like it’s acting responsibly, as DC burns around it. We’ll have some inflation. Your welfare check won’t cover your rent. So what. You can move to L.A. and live outside. I could go on and on. Let’s call the whole thing off. And when your grandkids ask you what happened, why they have no future, just tell them it was too hard. You sacrificed your home and your country to defend the world from this bad orange man. You’ll say, sorry kids, but I had to stand up for liberalism. Orrrr, we could just go ahead and surrender to China. They’re very tolerant — they are very supportive of transgenders and LGBTQRSTUVWXYZ’s and people throwing Molotov cocktails at electric cars. The air is really clean there, too. That strategy is starting to look more appetizing as the left’s lunacy exponentially expands.
The issue with your rant is that Trump has no credibility. He was ALREADY president for 4 years and delivered nothing. Tariffs on China? Did that fix anything from 2018 thru when he left office? Biden kept those tariffs so did manufacturing magically come back to the U.S.?
Trump is repeating an already failed policy but yeah, let’s let the stock market lose $10 trillion in value to try this dumb experiment out. Go look up Herbert Hoover and Great Depression for what comes next and it’s all at the feet of bad orange man.
Yeah, but, back then, the US was the preeminent manufacturing power in the world. However, a lot of other countries had large manufacturing capacity that rivaled that of the US. It was a tariff war among manufacturing nations, and it was very destructive. No country had a big service economy. This time it’s a lot different. Now, we have the world’s biggest service economy. If we will hold our nerve, we will get some good outcomes, as manufacturing countries (for many of which we are the biggest market) will do what they can to get off of our bad list. I believe that we will see companies from China and other countries move manufacturing to the US. That is the light at the end of the tunnel. If we do nothing, I believe that the tunnel caves in.
By the way, the tariff regime in Trump 1.0 was very mild with a lot of exemptions, and the stock market did ok — S&P up 63% during his first term. Would have been higher had it not been for COVID.
You and your ilk should read more and listen to podcasts from Luke Gromen and Michael Every. Things have changed. The U.S. situation has been allowed to go from really bad to dire. Everybody is to blame.
I don’t need to listen to any idiots, central planning (which is what you are advocating) has NEVER worked anywhere, NEVER. The free market decides the same way YOU choose what to buy when you go to Walmart, Costco or Home Depot. Competition and profits solves ALL PROBLEMS.
Argh, so the leftist idiots like to hang out on mishtalk? No wonder, I’ve never been here before. The stock market was in decline BEFORE Trump became president. Of course you wouldn’t know that because you don’t own stock. The indices were relying on the performance of the Magnficent Seven, otherwise breadth in the stock market was dismal. What I just said, you probably don’t even know what that means because you’re ignorant.
On the most basic level of fairness, we should have reciprocal tariffs with all other countries. This policy has NEVER been employed before contrary to your lie. IN the past we imposed tariffs but they were NOT reciprocal. Do you understand what reciprocal means? It doesn’t seem that you do.
Yeah leftist idiots!! Good god… moron! You are a funny little person🤣
Mish should have taken Thomas Paine’s place at Valley Forge. “These are the times which are recessionary…”
Your rant on the gay community is revealing. Is this about our economy or is that your prejudices are easily provoked? The conservatives just can’t let their hate go. It’s a distraction. Keep you angered over here and you won’t notice the big corporations picking your pocket over there. So many don’t even pay federal taxes because they write the tax laws for themselves. On top of that, the US cuts them subsidy checks on the regular. I don’t get conservatives protecting the uber wealthy and yet can’t stop talking about this nations debts. They are manipulating the media so they you protect their wealth.
Unfortunately a lot of people would really like that…
The danger of doing nothing, the United States has a yearly trade deficit north of $2 trillion and a yearly Federal deficit north of $5 trillion.
The United States has mastered the art of creating and exporting debt.
Again, Trump is 50 years too late to save Akron, Ohio.
You can pay me now or you can pay me later.
It is 50 years later and the iceberg has hit the Titanic.
How long will the ‘suckers’ continue to find a store of value in the US dollar?
“How long will the ‘suckers’ continue to find a store of value in the US dollar?”
Sunriver, your question shows you do not understand the trade relationship at all.
It is an identity, not subject to debate, that when foreign nations hold a trade surplus with the US, they MUST as a result hold US dollar denominated assets.
Now, China would buy Boeing or Apple or whatever with those dollars, but the US would say no. Instead they hold interest bearing US treasuries.
So, who is the sucker here? You can’t have it both ways.
“that when foreign nations hold a trade surplus with the US, they MUST as a result hold US dollar denominated assets.”
Explain to me why they can’t use those dollars and buy something else with it like gold and/or loan it out on their belt and road global projects. I don’t have any problems converting a US dollar into a foreign currency, why would China? China has bought a lot of farmland and businesses in the US as well. There is zero difficulty in recycling the US dollar into another asset.
You better double check your “federal deficit” numbers. Your opinion is worthless if you can’t generate a credible stat.
How much were the tariffs of the other countries before Trump started his? Higher, lower, or equal? Symmetrical or asymmetrical?
Maine U ousted transgenders in women sport.
Lol. Trump is already pre-caving. Announces there will be “flexibility” with tariffs. Why? This is the golden ticket to the golden age so why be flexible?
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/21/trump-says-therell-be-flexibility-on-reciprocal-tariffs.html
Are you not entertained? Is this not what you want? Welcome to the dog & pony show.
The flexibility is to give the opposing countries time to decide on the economic impact it will have on their own economies and make any changes. For example, Malaysia might have a tariff of 50% on whatever and we have 0%. Therefore Trump will raise our tariff to match theirs. THEN they decide they can’t afford the hit to their economy so they lower it to 20% and then we lower ours to 20% as well. THAT IS CALLED FLEXIBILITY. What bothers me, is why you couldn’t figure this out for yourself. SERIOUSLY.
Trump’s tariffs will be countered by counter-tariffs, and so on. Eventually, everybody will be doing M(X)GA, and production will return to local level, which is good for many reasons, primarily self-resilience. Not Trumps great reset idea, but good as a final nail to unhinged globalism.
Italian/French/Spanish wines (85% water) for 15$? I will sacrifice and drink local wine.
Thank you for the very informative article!
I am sort of surprised we are not hearing more from US farmers, or I have missed that. Last October I met with a large farmer in Maryland who was very fearful of the tariffs because of the way produce travels the world, often based on transportation costs, noting it is cheaper to transport food on water then by rail, thus food travels in some pretty crazy patterns. So maybe this is an issue for coastal farmers versus mid-west farmers. Would love more information on the agricultural impacts.
The impacts to the farmer are nil. Why? You have this notion that once a farmer begins to grow a specific product, he is forced to grow that same product for life. For example, if China wants to impose 10% tariff on soybeans, is that farmer FORCED to continue to raise soybeans? Additionally, is China the ONLY market for soybeans in the world? The answer is no and no. What bothers me is why you can’t figure this out for yourself. It also bothers me that you think there is no market for soybeans in the US and that the farmers product can ONLY be sold in countries with high tariffs.
Statistician tend to extrapolate selective data which justify their predictions and income. They tend to be blind to a new trend. On Nov 2024 the 100Y uniparty lost bc of those idiots. Now they predict a severe depression.
On Apr 2: 100% tariff on Rossigol skis and 100% on Italian silk jackets.
Where is this coming from?
Moronism is Trump’s gift to the world.
Nope. He’s from NYCity, not Utah.
And you are from Russia… not the US.
Without any supporting justification, I’d rather think you’re the MORON.
Some things are self-evident.
If you can’t see it no one can help you.
Amazing how quickly the party of free trade morphed into the party of high tariffs and protectionism. Republicans were either wrong for the last 40 years or they’re wrong now. Guess we’ll see.
It’s also possible that they were wrong then and are wrong now, or they were right then and are right now.
In other words, conditions do change over time. Nothing is static forever.
Historically, before FDR, the GOP was the party of high tariffs.
I’d go back to Williams Jennings Bryan and John C. Calhoun, if I had the time and inclination.
April 1st would have been a more appropriate date!
April 2nd will henceforth be known as Donnie’s Fool’s Day.
How about hiring Carly Fiorina to send everyone their own printer for FRN ? Wouldn’t that keep the stock market and real estate up defying the laws of gravity?
Tariffs certianly won’t help…
the Wimpy “I’d gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today” Economy…
that is already upon us:
DoorDash will let users buy now, pay later for fast food, a possible worrying sign for the economy | CNN Business
Trump might liberate HUD.
Tariffs worked. In 2019 India cut tariffs on Harley Davidson from 100% to 50%. That’s not good enough. The US might impose 50% tariffs on a rikshaw, but not on basmati rice, The bottom line: in 2019 India cut tariffs by half and will cont to cut bc Modi wants to replace China as a global mfg hub.
So your argument is that tariffs work because India needed to lower their own import tariffs in order to create an opportunity to export their products? I’m going to assume you forgot the /s because this only is evidence for the opposite of your statement.
No, sales taxes like VAT, are NOT tariffs. Indirect taxes are paid over all goods, foreign and national.
There are many state and local taxes like VAT in the US. Tennessee has a 7% state sales tax and California a 7.25%. Some places in Colorado have local sales taxes up to 8.30%.
Retaliatory tariffs in Alaska on California imports? Maybe…
correct
Great work (again) unfortunately on sad story – us.
Suffering for Dear Leader is the only true way to happiness!
Somebody discovered a new catch-word: liberate.
Liberate labor, liberate stocks, liberate the farmers, liberate real estate. — Paraphrase of Andrew Mellon quote in Great Depression (here substituting “liberate” for “liquidate”)
And didn’t Trump recently announce he would liberate the forests (by clear-cutting them)?
“To save the village, we had to destroy it.” — Vietnam era (apocryphal?) soldier’s remark
Sounds kind of liberal…
AI along with leading researchers determined a robust middle class is the best form of government from what I have read. A strong middle lifts up the poor and pushes forward the brightest.
Tariffs are not the thing. They are the thing to get us to the thing which is a robust middle class seems to be the reasoning.
I have no idea other than knowing what we have now is creating a smaller and smaller middle class.
Actually the best form of government is a benevolent dictatorship. This has never happened because of mans nature, but in theory would be ideal.
If it has never happened and not possible it should be scratched off the list. Why are you advocating for the impossible?
The best we have is a benevolent middle class option. Enough good people to stop bad people from rising to the top and keep them in the gutter and to elevate more good people.
A group of poor people can’t elevate anyone enough to matter. A group of rich people will keep their boot on everyone else which is what we have now just based off of income levels alone. The income gap is insane. I’m not advocating to take wealth either. Only to get the boot off the middle class.
How does benevolent and dictatorship even go together? Iron rulership is a dictatorship. If you all behave like I say, I won’t hurt you anymore. Good deal! How can any conservative support complete control by a single leader? I’m gobsmacked at the love of big government I see these days on the part of conservatives. Even an attraction to being ruled by a king seems to be acceptable. You think no government employees means freedom from big government don’t you? One man in charge of us all, makes us all vulnerable to his whims and anger and failing mental health. I never thought I’d see American conservatives give up so much freedom.
Tariffs will force people and companies to make better spending decisions.
Companies that design electronic boards try to have a successful product released after only 2 board revisions, but often take more. Similarly, the same company will order too few boards of the revision and have to pay additional set-up fees for building additional batches of boards.
People will start to buy quality products that last longer than replacing present cheap products make times. I bought a $10 pipe cutter that broke before making it through the first pipe. I also bought some athletic equipment that disassembled and could have caused an accident had I not detected the situation early enough There is a lot of money wasted replacing low quality products.
Why use the government to force your value system on others? I often buy cheap Chinese tools for one off projects that save me a bundle. I don’t want to pay 3-5 times the price for a tool that I will only likely use once. It reduces my standard of living.
This 💯 👆👆👆👆
I’ve done this so many times I’ve lost count, and it’s saved me a bundle. Often the Chinese “crappy” tool will last quite awhile before breaking.
One of the things that will occur is reducing the Landfill economy. Running out of places to put all the poor quality, use it once and hope it doesn’t break before job gets completed, globalized product.
Progressives all in on Green and Global sourced, but doing something real to reduce waste and reduce demands on commodity procurement gets lost in the discussion.
When that happens, we’ll just dump it in the ocean like everybody else.
Nothing like spending an hour and more getting to a job site only to have that Globally sourced tool break. Really knocking it out of the Park.
Mish gets to complain about Housing affordability, gives him something to write about how great globalization is and beneficial too. Economic stability is assured.
Fed gets to claim demand needs to be suppressed also.
Just think if things didn’t break and lasted longer then the debt used to procure them took to pay off, OMG the Horror.
99% of the people that use these tools do so once a year, if that, and the job site is their garage.
If you’re working professionally and buy cheap tools, that’s on you.
riiight, that’s why he’s doing this, cause he’s an environmentalist.
truth is progressives do believe in less waste (shouldn’t that be a “conservative” view too in all aspects of life??) , but Trump’s tariffs aren’t gong to do anything other than cause pain for a short time because he will lift them, assuming he doesn’t keep extending them indefinitely.
Frankly I don ‘t know what Mish is, claims are Libertarian, Conservative.
But open borders and illegals are just fine.
Globalized products which break is just fine.
Tariffs are evil.
Trump does not know what he is doing. Harris does not know what she is doing.
Mish knows how to run the country.
All this is not my problem.
I just point out where my Life experiences point which is in General contrary to what has been public policy for far too long.
All the Yak and although I used to Build real houses for people who wanted a roof that did not leak or house that stood up to weather, with floors that supported a Living load, I find myself making posts on a blog.
As the Housing industry became another stimulus tool for Fed bullshitters. I took the exit ramp.
How is that affordable housing thing going? Not so good I gather.
You sound like one of those environmentalist wackos.
I loved it when our new press secretary tried to tell us that tariffs are actually tax reductions. So Kamala or this. Perfect.
It’s a very UnHappy menu. We need a new misery index.
Who’s ready to join these economic giants with the highest tariffs in the world? Let the golden age begin!
Bermuda – 23.84%
Cayman – 20.39%
Belize – 17.79%
Gambia – 17.69%
Djibouti – 17.56%
Bahamas – 17.05%
Central African Republic – 16.44%
Chad – 16.44%
Equatorial Guinea – 15.63%
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tariff_rate
You need to include VAT rates too since they act as a tariff on imports.
More importantly tariffs set a price floor allowing domestic producers to raise their prices. That is why price floors are imposed in the first place. Tariffs are no different than an excuse tax the goal of which is to reduce consumption.
Looking forward to it.
There is no future in salivating over what has not worked for over 40 years.
Time for a new direction. Money for investment in US infrastructure is pouring in from all over. Job creation follows right on that new investment.
Complaining about trade deficits, fiscal deficits, enforcing borders, not being able to afford Rent and Groceries, Fed monetizing debt, but then not willing to change course of action is worthless.
To me this response is illustrative of the nihilism in Trump supporters. When presented with an explanation of why Trump’s actions are going to cause more harm than good say, “we don’t care, f*ck the current system, burn it all down.”
All things in moderation, including nihilism.
Once you embrace nihilism, you can amuse yourself by believing whatever the hell you want. It doesn’t matter.
Only a fool keeps doing what clearly doesn’t work.
So, doing more of what is not working is your solution?
Agreed! Of course, the hard part is determining the right course of action. There are many, many different options and picking the wrong one can make things even worse.
Always risk and uncertainty comes with change.
Which is why took 40 plus years of adverse consequences for it to become acknowledged there was even a problem.
“Time for a new direction. Money for investment in US infrastructure is pouring in from all over.”
Can you please post any links for investment in US infrastructure is pouring in from all over?
Did you just miss Two entry Panama Canal Ports are no longer controlled by Hong Kong based entity.
Hong Kong being under direct supervision of CCP.
Black Rock, as much as I do not like their fearless leader, is under American control.
Does it raise some curiosity about why Panama Canal is vital to US Monroe doctrine National Security and Economic vital interests? It should.
“Money for investment in US infrastructure is pouring in from all over.”
Panama Canal, Hong Kong, whatever. I was referring to US infrastructure in the US. There will be little to no reshoring taking place in the US. The US might even lose businesses with the tariff bluff Trump is playing. Why, the infrastructure is severely lacking. Good luck adding just for example an aluminum plant to the mix.
The first thing a company looks at when locating any facility is infrastructure. The US is facing an energy crisis in the near term. As well Americans will be facing substantial increases in energy bills.
Utilities Must Reinvent Themselves to Harness the AI-Driven Data Center Boom | Bain & Company
“US energy demand could outstrip supply within the next few years; meeting demand would require utilities to boost annual generation by up to 26% by 2028.”
Transportation by Ocean carrier is low cost bulk movement of materials.
Secretary of Interior just opened up 20 million acres in Alaska. How on Earth do you think what will come out of Alaska gets to lower 48.
It will be moved by ship. That is a pretty Big whatever.
Taiwan semiconductor is building in Arizona, Meta and Goggle are buying into micro nuclear plants so as to have enough power for AI centers without overloading Electric Grid Transmission capacity.
Mines are reopened for Copper in Upper Mid West.
Where do you get your financial information, because it has large gaps in it?
“Best and brightest trade team”? That must be the joke of the day. For example, Navarro is the guy who believes that the equation (identity):
GDP = Domestic Spending + Net Exports
proves that trade is bad for growth. Even a graduate from Trump University wouldn’t fall for a stupidity like that.
USA has 65 million on welfare and spends $2 Trillion to support them because their jobs were taken away by global unfair trade practices. Tariffs are an incentive to reshore the jobs or go out of business. For any business that does not reshore the tariffs can be raised higher. Higher import prices are an incentive for the welfare class and government parasites to take the jobs that return. By degrees tariffs rise to replace the income tax. Lower corporate income taxes become another incentive for corporations to manufacture in USA. In addition to $2 Trillion savings from welfare the USA need not spend another $1 Trillion per year to defend the sea lanes for global trade. Newly employed welfare class and government parasites can add $1 Trillion to income tax revenue. Tariff inflation helpfully defaults on the national debt. By every means available the ship of state must be righted and steered clear of catastrophic debt, socialism, and unemployment of 65 million.
What you miss is the simple fact that all production is not for the local domestic market. The less expensive producers, such as BYD, are still free to dominate the global markets, leaving only the artificially captured domestic market with domestic production. There are few good choices here, but there is no doubt that the US consumer has largely benefited from globalization—of course, until we don’t.
I think a larger threat would be to directly confront the large-scale theft of IP led by China – however, that requires international leadership with partners. Sadly, we have abandoned that possibility.
Only developing countries use tariffs to raise significant tax revenues. Try to find out the reasons for that fact!
USA is a developing country. USA needs to rebuild our manufacturing. USA has the largest third world population of all the advanced industrial economies.
why are weirdos so obsessed with manufacturing? its grueling work, often low wage. why do you want to build sweat shops in america making plastic toys and textiles?
When Germany focused on manufacturing it was their Wirkschaftswunder and kept them in good stead for decades until they became ossified and eventually became vassals of the US to the point of keeping mum when Biden blew up Nordstream. You have a point. We shouldn’t want to focus on making plastic lawn chairs, but it’s also not good to depend on foreign countries for all pharmaceuticals (or their precursors) or for basic machined parts that even our defense companies are reliant on. There’s another factor: with an average IQ of 98, the US has lots of decent people whose IQ is below average. Somebody with an IQ of 89 – even if they got a PhD – is incapable of some jobs. We need jobs for hardworking people across the intellectual strata.
well unemployment is already at 4% which is historically low. Where are all these “hard-working” but low iq dolts going to come from to work these jobs?
If you believe government 4% employment figures then you probably believe government inflation figures as well. Properly figured according to Shadowstats.com unemployment is 25%. Look around at the number of people working ‘gigs’, two jobs, 30 hour weeks, split shifts. 65 million people are on welfare. Over 40 million are on food stamps.
It beats paying people for doing nothing. And there’s nothing wrong with sweating, it might cure diabetes.
The point is that developing countries would prefer NOT to use tariffs because they have learnt that tariffs are some of the worst taxes to impose. But they don’t have tax administrations that can handle less damaging taxes. The US is now volunteering to do something that nobody else would: Shoot ourselves in the foot and claim it’s a great experience.
The port of entry is the only thing these governments control so tariffs are their only source of revenue outside of straight out corruption
And yet today your refrigerator is full, the gas station is open, your electricity is on and the only person who sees anything wrong is you. 🙂
Don’t you know how unbearable it is that someone else is getting something for free? it doesn’t matter what I have.
More proof that the right are as easily duped as the left.
Let me see if I have the order of operations right here. #1 get rid of Medicaid and other forms of support for the people at the bottom of the pyramid. #2 raise tariffs and close businesses that rely on imports. #3 wait 3-5 years for new factories to be built to replace the missing imports. #4, for those who survived by eating bugs and plants during the “hunger game” years, employ them as t-shirt machine operators and plastic injection machine operators. Oh, and make the Trump tax cuts for the 1% permanent and perhaps lower them even further to ease their pain and suffering. Do I have that right?
well, what you’re imssing is instead of 3-5 years we’ll be waiting 3-5 minutes because Trump is a clown who change his mind about important policies 5 times a day. If implemented, the resulting economic disaster will force even Trump to abandon it. assuming it goes into effect altogether.
“…employ them as t-shirt machine operators and plastic injection machine operators…”
This is incorrect. Operators won’t be needed. Those jobs will be automated.
So maybe change that to side of the road t-shirt sellers and plastic trash salvage collectors.
No special Trump magic will create a tariff outcome that is counter-empirical. Tariffs are masochistic economic tools. Just because you can rhetorically weave a “commonsense” narrative about how tariffs will be the “silver bullet” that will right all perceived wrongs does not mean what is being sold will be different this time.
Artificial cost of capital has been great for Chinese production! Selling goods into the US below actual cost as well! And look how fat the American consumer is now! Yeah, no. Things can’t go on like this. It hurts the Chinese as well, since they labor under the yoke of the mercantilist party oligarchs. An absolute, blind adherence to the point that tariffs ALWAYS are destructive is not thinking. Its propaganda, which of course requires ignorance to work. Global free trade has not been free. Shall we talk about the federal deficit as a starter?
you’re right. America’s mercantilist oligarchs are so much better than chines ones!
I guess we will finally see if the depths of your hatred of tariffs is justified or if something good comes from this. He has tripled-down on this “Trump-thing.”
Pretty much. Mish is all assumptions. No meat. Until we see the results as in how long they are on and the ultimate deals that are made because of them we won’t know. Could take a year or more. Doom sells though.
And thus far your visions on the interest rates are winning … so far.
They last to 2026 at the latest, and Trump will put some clown puppet in place of Powell and it will be over.
well i work for T1 supplier and in 3 days of nafta tax we paid $350K. We are a low margin business… and yesterday one of our plants got their first price increase from supplier because of steel/alum tariff. trump is going to close down a lot of us factories
Trump doesn’t own any Factories? Trump doesn’t own this Factory? How is Trump shutting anything down? He has no right to do so? He has nobody asking Him to do so? Is there one owner or more? How many are voting to shut down? How many to stay open?
I don’t think Trump shut anything down. I don’t think He plans to try, and/or ask anyone either. They’re NOT His business to do so.
I don’t see your point?
“…Mish is all assumptions. No meat…”
Aren’t you doing the exact same thing?
No one knows with absolute certainty how this will play out.
It could result in lots of extra money for the average worker …. HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAA! Im sorry …..
How so? I didn’t right a blog saying people are going to suffer. I didn’t give an opinion on the ultimate result. Simply said its a fools errand to assume you know.
You don’t right well enough to right a blog.
You made claims here many times.
No they don’t, because it’s never been tried, at this level, and in America, that I am aware of.
They are supposed to be a net positive, and soon enough we shall see. I think people get mixed up thinking they are all the same everywhere, but that’s simply not the case. Every one with every Country is unique to that specific Country, and a host of factors relating to such.
I can see where it could work wonderfully for us, but I can also see where it could be a potential negative in certain instances.
How we specifically apply them, and to whom and for how long will be the biggest factor whenever it gets off of the ground. Then what these Countries decide to do, if anything about it will be the next factor. Combined, those two will tell us everything we need to know, imo.