The Biden bounce, what little there was, appears to be over already. 
Biden’s Gains Vanish
Bloomberg reports Biden’s Gains Against Trump Vanish on Deep Economic Pessimism, Poll Shows
The April Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found Biden is ahead in just one of the seven states most likely to determine the outcome of his matchup with Donald Trump, leading Michigan by 2 percentage points. Biden trails the presumptive GOP nominee slightly in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and his deficit in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina is larger.
Those results are largely a return to the previous state of the presidential race, before a strong State of the Union address appeared to power Biden in March to his best showing in the monthly poll since it began in October.
The reversion comes as poll respondents offered a bleak near-term view of the economy, the issue that has consistently registered as their top concern at the ballot box. A majority of swing-state voters see worsening economic conditions in the coming months, with fewer than one in five saying they expect inflation and borrowing costs to be lower by the end of the year. Despite a resilient job market, only 23% of respondents said the employment rate would improve over the same time period.
Voters Blame Biden
More than three quarters of poll respondents said the president is responsible for the current performance of the US economy, and nearly half said he was “very responsible.”
How Important is Abortion?
Independent voters in Arizona say they trust Biden over Trump on that issue by 12 percentage points. Among suburban women in the state, it’s a 25-point advantage.
Trump has tried to moderate his position on abortion, saying the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade — made possible by three justices he appointed — means that the decision of each state “must be the law of the land.” He then said the Arizona Supreme Court decision went too far.
Split Ticketers
Biden’s six-point deficit across the swing states is even wider than that of Democratic congressional candidates, who trail Republicans by two points. That hints that more voters have a sour view of Biden than his party overall.
Those ticket-splitters — voters who say they’ll vote for Trump for president but a Democrat for Congress — are far more pessimistic about the economy than those who split their voters the other way, Biden for president and a Republican for Congress.
The Abortion Issue Comes Alive in Arizona
On April 17, I wrote The Abortion Issue Comes Alive in Arizona, It Could Cost Republicans Dearly
That’s still my position with an emphasis on the word “could”.
But my main position remains the same: Blacks and young voters upset at rent and the prices of homes are more than a bit angry right now. If they stay angry and switch to Trump, or simply sit the election out, Trump will win.
For discussion, please see People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
Biden barely won the election in 2020 despite record turnout and 91 percent of the vote from blacks and young voters.
My base case is that will not happen again. But I caution it’s still early.
Not much reason to feel optimistic. The news may not state it so accurately, but things kinda suck.
Consider this:
Supporters of Biden and the DFL in general will tout positive economic news as evidence of Biden performing well, yet according to the Bloomberg poll Democrats are less likely than Independent and Republican voters to say the president is “very responsible” for the current state of the economy.
In fact, more Democrats responded that COVID-19 is “very repsponsible” for the economy’s performance than they did the president.
The IMF is warning about excessive U.S. government spending and Morgan Stanley is saying that they have only a few years to fix this. The economy doesn’t look good going forward, regardless who wins.
Mish, you seem to ignore the rigging the liars and cheats will most assuredly do. They’re not all Democrat-friendly, IMHO, but most are, so Trump will have to win by a overwhelming margin to beat the algorithms. What say you?
It’s laughable (terrifying, actually) that voters, some intelligent and educated, believe “their candidate” will significantly improve the enormous problems this once-great nation faces. They are both puppets for the bankers, big pharma & the military-industrial complex who fund and control them. “You will own nothing and you will be happy.” How do you take your hot borscht?
Well, there’s one that gets his feelings hurt really easy, and I don’t want him in charge of a nuclear arsenal, for starters…
Well, what if the other one is certifiably criminally insane?
No, one person won’t. But one will surely be worse than the other.
The typical voter is looking at his/her paycheck compared to inflation and compared to what political hacks are getting (note “getting”, not “earning”). Typical voter is far more angry than Mish lets on.
Hunter Biden was paid $50K per month from Bursima, or $600K per year. Hunter knows nothing about natural gas, nothing about pipelines, he can’t speak Ukranian. His so-called legal skills are community college level at best. And the Bursima scam is only one of many scams the Biden’s are running.
JP Morgan Chase is paying Jame Dimon $40 million per year to attend WEF meetings in Davos, making silly opinions about the economy (US, Europe, global… he doesn’t know, doesn’t matter), and he attends lots of political shin digs with the US federal government. Under Dimon’s leadership, the bank lost several billion of other people’s money and called it a tempest in a teapot. He insulted the entire states of Texas, Oklahoma and Colorado saying fossil fuels were evil (that’s wha Davos told him to say!). Lots of politics, but Dimon doesn’t seem to do much banking.
Those are just two examples in this morning’s news. Dozens of other examples.
It is insulting to think people with actual skills should accept far less for doing far more. Mish is retired and I’m not sure he grasps this.
You have summarized, in a well-written and tight paragraph, exactly as I see it. I, too, often lump in Dimon, as one of the most corrupt. It is hard to beat BidenCo, both of them and those that defend them. We are lost with a broken rudder.
CAN ANYONE fix this mess?
And, Mish is being very contained and presents the Facts. This is my go-to place every day.
Thanks, Willie.
Thank you, Mish!
Phenomenal post. I can say for myself, I work in an industry that is more desperate for workers than it’s ever been, and it’s an extremely rare skill, and wages are STILL getting killed adjusted for inflation. Merit compensation seems to be going the way of the dodo bird and supply/demand doesn’t even seem to be the force that it once was.
Jennifer Granholm loves Kwame Kilpatrick.
“a strong State of the Union address appeared to power Biden in March to his best showing in the monthly poll since it began in October.“
Did Bloomberg really say this? I’ve never heard anyone accuse Biden of giving a strong speech. EVER.
When he speaks, I keep waiting to see the Forked Pit Viper come slithering out of his Pie Hole.
Happy 4th anniversary of bleach injection day at the white house.
Yes, the overpaid media outlets really bungled that story, if you measure based on facts. But it was hardly the worst reporting they did in recent memory. If they can’t get a simple quote correct, perhaps journalism isn’t their thing.
Remember Leslie Stahl of 60 minutes claiming Trump was crazy to suggest he was being spied on by the US government? Stahl rolled her eyes and pretended like she had credibility. The FBI and NSA have both admitted they were indeed spying on Trump, in ways Nixon never imagined even trying. Neither Stahl nor 60 minutes have corrected their error.
Instead, lets remember 60 Minutes pulling their story on tobacco, because (at that time) tobacco was the top advertiser by far. Today, pharmaceutical companies are the top TV advertiser, by far.
Media outlets say whatever the pharma companies tell them to say, and big pharma wanted to push mRNA shots. The media obeyed. The average American knows media cannot be trusted.
If you judge media outlets based on the accuracy of their reporting, of course media looks bad. If you judge them based on their adherence to the wishes of their top advertisers, its easy to see why all their reporting on covid was so wrong.
I saw the video. Went on for about 3 minutes. No spin, no pundits, just your incontinent messiah broadcasting his stupidity.
Own it.
Bleach is the only thing that will make you pure enough to join the Retard Revolution.
Trump clarified his comment, after a reporters question, which you seem uninterested in noting.
Biden mandated Covid shots, which VAERS and V-safe indicated were unsafe. Ed Dowd initially, conservatively estimated that 300,000 Americans have died due to them.
The Biden sag.
Still to early. Ttump”s problems are only beginning and Biden bottomed and will look better this summer. Biden has been lucky in his political career. I see no reason that won’t continue come November.
Grade A analysis there lol.
Black males are wising up. they are turning to Trump in droves.
Black males get obstructed from voting the most of any race, sex or ethnicity. Meanwhile unions are increasingly siding with Biden.
Increasingly?
Sure they are. Do you know any? Of course not.
What will make his look better the summer? He flubs every speech. Did you see him read “pause” off the teleprompter?
He’ll be in memory care by November. You can’t waddle around that fat in your 70s.
Speaking of Arizona, I wonder how long before the Unindicted Coconspirator #1 in the Arizona case gets indicted?
Fraudulent election coup is no an election win.
It’s a fine excuse for a bunch of delude losers though.
What is there to improve?
Swing states prefer their voters votes actually count.
In Arizona, they will vote against Unindicted CoConspirator1.