After hinting he would so so, Governor Pritzker just announced All Illinois Bars, Restaurants Closed.
Three days after expressing frustration at long lines outside bars and revelers continuing to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day in public, Pritzker said all bars and restaurants are ordered to close as of close of business Monday, March 16, until March 30.
“Every choice that we face — every choice now — is hard and it comes with real consequences for our residents,” Pritzker said. “I cannot let the gravity of these choices prevent us from taking the actions that the science and the experts” say is best, he said.
Hours earlier, Pritzker appeared on NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday morning, telling host Chuck Todd he was “looking hard” at making the decision to shut down bars and restaurants, similar to what France has recently done.
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine also appeared on “Meet the Press”ordered his state’s restaurants closed as well, hours after saying, “Everything we’re doing is to save lives.”
Airport Mess
Trump made a huge mess of things at many airports and Pritzker blasted him in a series of Tweets.
Lines at Ohare
https://twitter.com/katyslittlefarm/status/1239013655762608128
Lines at Dallas Fort Worth
https://twitter.com/drunktweetn/status/1238958571938775040
Trump’s Idea
Screen all passengers from Europe. Provide no screeners.
Not Under Control
Clearly the coronavirus is not under control.
NYC Comptroller Wants to Shut All Restaurants and Bars
Just a bit ago I reported NYC Comptroller Wants to Shut All Restaurants and Bars
States are taking matters into their own hands.
March Madness Cancelled
Nothing is immune from closure, not even March Madness.
Previously, the NCC announced the tournament would go on for players only, but when two players tested positive they cancelled it entirely.
If the coronavirus threat diminishes, it will be due to these strong social measures.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Please enlighten me WildBull with a brain
Who is an expert that says 71% will contract the virus?
I agree South Korea ‘s death rate is under 1%… of those that have contracted the virus, however the percentage confirmed cases in South Korea is 0.016% of the population. 8,236 confirmed cases in a population of 51 ,000,000
Your post says refers to the South Korea death rate as “That’s maybe the best we can expect” So lets extrapolate that
340 million Americans X 0.016%= 54,910 Americans will contract the virus and
1% of that would be 549 deaths.
A 0.016% rate of contract is about 160 contracted per million people.
Lets not read the death rate and project that across the entire population, the death rate is a percentage of those that contract the virus.
So how do we get to 2.5 million deaths in the US?
When Reagan fired the air traffic controllers, I was stuck at Heathrow for 3 days. Had to sleep on the floor. I was a teenager, so no big deal. But, what a bunch of whiny wusses.
There was no pandemic when Reagan fired the controllers, unless you think of inflation as a pandemic…
Mish, you are really going to have to get out of Illinois quickly now. No bars or restaurants? Fugeddaboutit.
Mish, you’ve been busy lately, don’t forget to go outside and see your daffodils and hyacinths peaking through. Spring is coming, and by the ways, thanks for all that you do.
It’s too early to talk about green shoots…maybe in a month or two however, when the DJ-30 is at 2013 year levels.
My grapevine says Senior beltway policy wonks finally fully engaged. I’ll be surprised at this point if they don’t lock down everything but grocery stores for a couple weeks. They should.
Unless you’ve been in a cave since Christmas, the numbers have been screaming at you:
Even China’s current REPORTED daily death rate on 81,000 cases is still five times background death rate for a population of 81,000 people, mostly in Wuhan where they let it get away from them…like we’re doing now.
Extrapolated to our population of 340 million we’d see 3.4 million coronavirus deaths, at the current China death rate, in 90 days, 3.6 x all combat deaths in our entire history.
abend237-04 If your grapevine is anything like your math, I’m skeptical. Double check your math and stop posting doom porn based on made up statistics.
You might also tighten up a bit on sending knuckle notes to strangers assuming they’re idiots before you check CDC daily Situation Reports:
A city the size of China’s total reported cases of 81,000 should be encountering an annual death rate of 7.26 per 1,000, using 2019 actuals for China, or roughly 1.6 deaths per day, but they’ve actually reported 71 total deaths over the past 5 days, an average of 14.2 per day or 12.6 per day in excess of China’s actual 2019 national death rate expected on these 81,000 people if they were dying at the rate of the other 1.4 billion Chinese, before the coronavirus outbreak. 12.6 excess daily deaths per 1,000 population on the US population of 340 million in 90 days:
340 million/81,000 = 4,197.5 X 12.6 =52,888 excess deaths per day if the entire US population is infected.
I assumed only 71% would become infected, yielding “only” 3.4 million or so dying in 90 days at current WHO daily reported rates for China.
This assumes we can match the current Chinese daily death rate which is down more than two thirds from two months ago.
Pick it apart; I’d like to be wrong.
“.. if they don’t lock down everything but grocery stores for a couple weeks. “
Once it’s locked down, it’s not for a couple of weeks. The over/under is couple of months vs couple of years.
If you would like to be wrong, your going to be ecstatic after reading this,
China’s population is about 1.4 billion
China total reported confirmed cases 81,020 total
China reported Covid19 deaths 3200 total
China reported total recovered is 67843
US population is 340 million
Are you beginning to see the light?
China’s 81,000 total reported cases equals .005787% of the population
China’s 3200 total reported deaths equals .00022857% of the population
How can you ASSUme 71% of 340 million would become infected?
How can you ASSume 1% of 340 million will die?
Please explain your “340 million/81,000= 4,197.5 X 12.6= 52,888 excess deaths per day”
One more time, slowly.
China, whatever the problems with veracity and accuracy of it’s data, is still a useful indicator of what we can expect, perhaps even best case.
Looking at their own daily data, the crisis in China itself is not over, despite their draconian measures and growing optimism. Take their own daily reports to WHO and conduct the following mental experiment:
Consider the 81,000 reported Chinese Corvid-19 cases (67,000 cured) as a separate Chinese city. After two months of martial law, and more than 70% reduction in reported Chinese daily deaths, how does the current daily death rate of this city of Covid-19 cases compare with the average daily death rate of China elsewhere?
Actual China 2019 deaths/1,000 = 7.26 per 1,000
Therefore, the average daily deaths of a Chinese group of 81,000 in 2019 was:
(81 x 7.26)/365 = 1.61 per day.
HOWEVER,
The 81,000, mostly cured, residents of my Covid-19 city are still dying at a daily rate of 14.2 per day (five day average) per WHO daily Situation Reports.
Actual 14.2/day -Chinese ave. 1.61/day = 12.6/ day IN EXCESS of the overall Chinese death rate for 81,000 people without Covid-19.
If I then ask, what would the daily death rate for 340 million people similarly afflicted:
340,000,000/81,000 = 4,197.5 times greater, multiplied by the 12.6 excess daily deaths per 81,000 people = 52,888 deaths per day if 100% of 340 million were infected and we experienced the Chinese results. I backed the percent infected down to 71%, assuming we get our act together.
The flu it’s not.
Rigid controls and social distancing are waaaay overdue.
It is FAR from over in China. How long can governments lock everything down before the economic disaster becomes worse than the medical disaster? We ASSume 71% of the population because there are quite a few experts that say this. I’m in agreement. There are two ways that this can go, barring a new antiviral drug or vaccine. Lock everything down until everyone in the world tests negative, or everyone without natural resistance gets it. My guess is option 2. It does not appear to be stoppable here, or in China or anywhere else. The only thing that can be done is to slow the rate of spread so that there is a ventilator available for everyone that needs one at any particular time. That is the goal in the US and everywhere else. Korea seems to be getting the death rate to about 1%. That’s maybe the best we can expect. That’s about 2.5million deaths in the US. Or, we could let the spread get ahead of us, so that the hospitals are overwhelmed, as in Italy, and get 6% death rate. That’s maybe the worst at about 15million dead in the US. This in not a hoax. The numbers are not exaggerated. Grow a brain.
Really, your sticking to your story, I had hoped you would see the light and realize the errors of your ways.
Let me show you how utterly irresponsible and reprehensible your post is.
Using your (math) lets look at how many Chinese will die
China has 1.4 billion population the US is about a quarter of that
1,400,000,000/81,000 = 17283 X 12.6 = 217,777 excess deaths per DAY
217,777 excess deaths per day X 90 days = 19,599,930 deaths over 90 days
How many people have died in China, about 3200
When do you project the remaining 19,597,000 to die
Are you seeing the light?
You generously backed down your infected rate to 70%, what statistics are you using to propose that number?
Did you use the .005% actual China infected rate, or Italy’s .004% infection rate the two highest reporting countries.
As my grandpa used to say “Figures lie and liars figure”
I’m leaning to the latter
You should have stayed awake in arithmetic. Why don’t you calculate for me the current annualized daily death rate for the 81,000 poor Chinese souls with current or cured Covid-19.
Whatever your number, call the CDC and White House and tell them not to worry. Sorry I wasted your time with data; fantasy is so much more comforting in a pandemic.
Also, the current worldwide Covid-19 death rate is only 38 times the flu, so it may be even more comforting to just dismiss it altogether as “just the flu.”
Since your post does not refute the factual math I presented and changed the focus of your case, I take it you understand now that your claim of 3.4 million US deaths is not logical and off by about 1,000%.
As for the 81,000 poor souls in China that have tested positive, I believe the death rate will maintain about the same, 14 per day as you quoted above. To put that in perspective, consider the 2019 China death rate of 7.26 per thousand you state above results in an average of 27,846 people in China die per day.
You did throw out one number “the current worldwide Covid-19 death rate is only 38 times the flu”, once again I have to call bullshit!
Quick math shows 7,154 Covid-19 deaths worldwide, divide that by 38 = 188
What year was it that we had 188 flu deaths worldwide?
Again off the mark by about 1000% or more.
I don’t know where you’re coming up with your numbers, but PLEASE stop posting
doom porn numbers you may have read somewhere God only knows, that have no basis in reality.
I may not have stayed awake in arithmetic but at least I passed.
Sorry it’s late and I made a mistake, your numbers are off by about 100,000 %
One of us is indeed off by thousands of percent. Try your argument and numbers on a few people you know and trust. Don’t waste your time on me. I made a good living for many decades using data and I’ve closely watched this horror unfolding for many weeks now. The world will profoundly regret not doing more, sooner.
I’m keenly aware of the effects that flow from people adamantly anchored on error, for whatever reason(s). Good luck to you.
Fed to 0% a few minutes ago.
Have things ever changed so quickly? Not in my lifetime.
Central banks are in a panic. That won’t calm the markets, but it might give the well-connected a few more days to sell stocks and buy bonds.
If markets are even allowed to open tomorrow! This week is going to be chaos.
Time to party like it’s 2009. Not only is ZIRP back, the Fed announced another $700B of stimulus, similar to TARP. We’ve come full circle!
Already said, every monkey will be bailed out. This will probably last a week? After that, something else will break, and then it will be QE infinity.
No recession.
Agreed. We jump straight to depression. Goldman just predicted a MINUS 5% print for Q2 GDP.
Truly the black swan event. In california many supermarkets are closing along with most of the schools. In our litigious society it appears to be too “risky” to require people to come to work!!
So what are you talking about. Of course it is risky for people in the service industry to go to work with an infected public. I don’t care if it is “litigious” or not.
Supermarkets, really? Talk about panic-inducing. Got links?
Are they going to shut down the food courts on the Tollways? The same at the airports? How about just closing the airports?
Meanwhile, most restaurants are not high margin businesses and 2 weeks idle will bankrupt them.
Maybe we can wait until a few retired civil servants and teachers test positive and get them all in one big stadium for a mandatory retiree meeting about “fixing” the pension defecit. Given the eitiology of Coronavirus, it would be likely to help.
Just remember it is better to give than to receive.
Hope you mean state, county and local govt. people. Federal pensions dont take up much of the Federal budget.
Airlines, restaurants will all go bankrupt. Today (3.16.20) in the main island of the Philippines, the Trump-loving dictator Duterte instituted a total lockdown where people cannot leave their homes even to buy food (military and police to ration food), though my girl there says the lockdown is being routinely violated. Imagine this happening in the USA? As I said in another thread, though Mish disagreed, I could even see the November 2020 elections being postponed (the date of these elections is set by a 1790s Federal law, and not by the Constitution, hence it could in theory be changed by Congress and the President).