https://twitter.com/NYCComptroller/status/1239203804727382018
Stringer wants to shut down all the restaurants, bars, and schools.
Something has Snapped
NYC Councilman Mark Levine says Something has snapped in the last 12 hours.
Today must be the day we move to ShutDownNYC.
One way or another the only way to stop the spread is to take drastic measures.
https://twitter.com/Clarknt67/status/1239160033692323841https://twitter.com/Big_Rax/status/1239192628417253376
Maryland
Maryland’s governor ordered casinos, racetracks and betting facilities to close “indefinitely.”
Staggering Pockets of Amazing Complacency Elsewhere
The amount of circulating complacency is staggering.
One person told me this this is not a virus problem, it’s an immune problem.
One look at Italy is all that it should take to dispel such ignorance.
Assume 90% of the people are OK. The other 10% will fill every hospital bed in the county just as happened in Italy.
Italian doctors are making life and death decisions over how gets fluids and respirators because there are not enough beds and supplies to go around.
Misplaced Faith in the Weather
Others have faith in the weather. The obvious problem with this weather meme is the virus will return in the fall, assuming risks do diminish in the summer.
Please note that Australia had 248 cases yesterday. Today it has 300. And that assumes the number is accurate. Weather in Sydney is in the 70’s .
If the virus slows in the summer, it will establish firmly in the southern hemisphere and return in the fall. It’s not like the virus will vanish forever due to the weather.
There is an excellent video on Nate Silver’s 538 site on the weather. I discussed the video and linked to it here: The Weather Does Not Make Viruses Go Away
I advise watching the video, especially if you are a “no worse than the Flu” proponent.
In regards to immunity silliness, here is the key point “The problem is not whether you will recover. The problem is whether you spread it to somebody who doesn’t.”
So, I suppose if you are certain you have strong immunity and do not give a damn about anyone else who may pick up the disease from you, then there is no problem other than beds filling up and doctors having to decide who gets treatment and who doesn’t.
What About China?
Assuming you believe China’s death count total, no one in their right mind does, or that China’s caseload is in a strong downslope (very believable), is it just a matter of carrying on as usual in expectation it all goes away because it appears to be doing that in China?
No.
China locked down 100 million people who could not leave their houses for a month. It has very aggressive testing and even more aggressive social measures.
The Choice
The US either needs to do the same, or risk ending up like Italy. That is the choice.
But hey, if you have a strong immune system and don’t give a damn about anyone else, then carry on as usual.
Coronavirus Week in Review
In case you missed it, please consider Coronavirus Week in Review: Top 10 Things That Happened last week.
This week is starting off on an ominous note.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Give it rest. Our current from economic system simply can’t cope with this.
Wrong again. Pity poor Venezuela…and Cuba: 80% indigent, and masters only of pretending to share the ever-growing shortages of everything.
We are going to be Socialist now. The capitalistic system simply can’t handle this.
My money is on South Korea, vs North….
We are all now going to be socialist. The Capitalistic system simply will not be able deal this.
Things must be really bad when a government bureaucrat doesn’t want tax money.
Well maybe Scott Stringer can get together with all the departments in New York City and exempt these businesses from any tax liability over that period of time.
Sadly it is true, death is the enemy we want to avert. And disability. And we can feel heroic and may help save lives if we can follow social isolation and hygiene guidelines.
My condolences for corona virus victims
If I’m a coronavirus general, I’ve got to be feeling pretty good about now: It took me almost four years to cover all of Europe moving at the speed of a slow walk, starting in 1347. Today, the idiots are flying me at 540 mph in climate controlled comfort.
Sarah Abdallah (@sahouraxo)
Holy moly.
Massive anti-government protests in #Paris, #France today, defying #coronavirus lockdown.
A cynic would suggest that we charter flights and send our anti-vaccine crowd to join them.
The world population needs substantial culling or it will s***t up its environment beyond livable. If it culls primarily the stupid, what’s to complain about?
Stan please define enormous as in number of tests and number of positives.
I’ll try to post some numbers soon
And don’t forget a time frame too.
#of tests, # positive, over what time period?
Hoboken, NJ has imposed a 10pm to 5am curfew, because I guess the virus is most virulent in the late night and early morning.
I disagree with the excessive fear pervading everything. But if this is what it takes crash the economy and get rid of Trump, then so be it.
Covid may not directly kill young healthy dude, but if the beds fill up and hotshot crashes his motorcycle then he doesn’t get treatment either.
The longer the crises lasts, the more problems of this sort will rear their heads.
Similarly, landing your jet on your landing strip on your well stocked ranch in Montana and staying there, is fine and well wrt covid as long as you extricated from NYC before any of you were infected. Until your kid suddenly need treatment for falling off a pony….
Which are just more arguments for containing it (Taiwan, Singapore), or if that fails beating the virus back as hard and fast as possible (China, South Korea), so reasonable normalcy can be returned to critical health functions as quickly as possible.
Rather than rely on the hope and a prayer that you can “balance the R-value” just exactly well enough to not completely overwhelm the health sector, while “spreading the peak” out over months to years on end. All simply to allow for postponing making hard decisions.
What is the free market solution to the Corona problem? Shumpeters Creative destruction of the week and elderly…
Uh, it’s “weak” not ‘week’. And it’s “Schumpeter’s” not ‘Shumpeters’. And your point would be better if it wasn’t for the fact everybody, not just the elderly, are taking precautions that arguably destroy the economy in non-creative ways (like staying at home, though homebodies might think that’s creative). Other than that, fair point.
2000 square foot hepa and above filtered per person private space, even for the poorest in the densest of cities. Each unit stocked with a year or more of rotating supplies of basics. Enough savings to check out for longer than a mere virus can hold on.
Just the usual stuff regular productive people would have the resources to do, had they not been forced to drag an army of leeches, who produce nothing, along with them for generations.
Update on Spain / Portuguese border – controls will only allow essential transit, no tourists, for at least a month.
Regarding a country getting it “right”, Portugal is treading the middle ground, which so far seems good. They could have done some things earlier, been stricter on others, and still hard to say how the epidemic will go, but the view now is :
“Since 1975, a state of siege or emergency has not been declared ”, which implies measures to restrict rights, which the Prime Minister considers that“ it makes no sense to discuss how the suspension of freedom of expression or information ”. He admits that “it may be necessary to have more muscle and freedom of movement”.
The prime minister’s reservation in restricting measures is justified by “the behavior of the Portuguese” which makes the existing legislation (basic health and civil protection law) a sufficient basis “to implement the necessary restrictions” .
(Web translated)
Stricter control by national emergency declaration are deemed a last resort, hopefully not needed. There are many of the same basic restrictions as other countries in place without that declaration being needed.
….
In Italy, this was the reason given for accepting foreign medics :
On the personnel front, 1,600 health workers responded to the Region’s appeal. 692 have already been evaluated: 68 medical specialists, 137 postgraduates, 74 newly graduated (who will be licensed ex officio) and 323 nurses. “Many, however, give up – they explain from the Region -, thus creating further delays”. The numbers remain insufficient to face the emergency. For this reason, it was decided to open foreign personnel from Venezuela, Cuba and China: “Problems of equivalence and qualifications will be overcome, they will be able to work immediately”.
Corriere della Sera (if I remember)
I work at one of the big national labs and there is an enormous amount of Covid-19 tests coming back positive in NY/NJ
Stan please define enormous as in number of tests and number of positives.
Thanks
There’s a statistical fallacy at work that I think you, as a competent lab rat, can figure out. It’s called ‘self-selection’ in statistics. As Mish just wrote, you have to figure that most people who send in a specimen are already sick, so likely that would explain the ‘enormous’ number. I’ve talked to lab rats, and they say in testing blood a very common thing was to find disease, since most blood samples come from diseased patents.
It is not a blood test. It is a pcr test performed on a nasal swab
Ah! That changes everything; thanks for the amplification (literally, PCR). ;(
UK carried out large volume with few found infected at one point. Stan88s info is helpful, at least if with figure of rough % of tests with virus
There seem to be sufficient numbers of people diagnosed in the UK with no direct link to any known infected person, to assume that it’s in widespread circulation.
I would be surprised if it were not. In UK that round was mostly those in contact, in US I expect it will be those with symptoms as well. Those UK tests still found a few per thousand without link, which would add up to many in the whole population, and that was weeks ago.
Not surprising if true. Cuomo already said there’s thousands and thousands carrying the virus walking around.
I am thinking of flying to Taiwan and “live” there like a Nomad for a while.