Continued claims are the highest since November 13, 2021. 
Today, the US Department of Labor released Unemployment Claims for the week ending July 5.
Initial Unemployment Claims
- In the week ending July 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 233,000 to 232,000.
- The 4-week moving average was 235,500, a decrease of 5,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 241,500 to 241,250.
Continued Claims
- The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 28 was 1,965,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 13, 2021 when it was 1,970,000. The previous week’s level was revised down by 9,000 from 1,964,000 to 1,955,000.
- The 4-week moving average was 1,955,250, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021 when it was 2,004,250. The previous week’s average was revised down by 2,250 from 1,954,000 to 1,951,750.
Initial Claims and 4-Week Average
Change in Continued Unemployment Claims
I do not have a satisfactory explanation for 24 straight weeks of alternating up-down changes in continued claims. It’s unprecedented. I suppose it could be a random fluke albeit with an amazingly small likelihood.
For whatever reason or none at all, the pattern broke seven weeks ago, but has since continued.
Final Thoughts
Tariffs and tariff uncertainty have now started to bite. Small businesses will be the ones most impacted.
Also, Trump has recently increased tariffs on steel and aluminum. All of these actions and events are guaranteed job killers.
I expect a surge in unemployment claims. However, BLS data and methods are so poor, it’s hard to say when this turns up in the jobs reports.
Related Posts
On June 16, I commented QCEW Report Shows Overstatement of Jobs by the BLS is Increasing
The discrepancy between QCEW and the BLS jobs report is rising.
On July 2, I noted ADP Reports 33,000 Job Losses in June with Negative Revisions in May
Small and medium-sized businesses shed jobs in June.
On July 3, I noted Jobs Beat Expectations, Up 147,000 in June, but Government Jobs Rise 73,000
Government to the rescue?
As a real labor market indicator, the question is how much longer will it take for continued claims to break through 2M?
Then once we cross over 2.2M’ish, I’d say we’ve entered into the perk up & pay attention for an obviously weakening labor market signal.
Continued claims expire after a variable number of weeks (depends on the state).
Mish previously suggested looking at the combo of Continued Claims and Unemployed > 26 weeks (a data series from the monthly report), to include the unemployed who have fallen off the back end of Continued Claims.
Don’t trust TACO Trump. Trust Macron. Ego maniac Macron demanded 80% of the new European fighter jet FCAS. Merz told him: f***u. We are buying 15 F-35 from the US for a total of 50 since they performed well against Iran. The F-35 cannibalized the FCAS (Future Air Combat System) and the Typhoon. Next week Germany defense minister will meet Pete Hegseth
A part timer highly skilled zoomer accumulated $36,000 C/C debt. The banks told him: use your extra $5,000 credit line to pay. He can’t. He has to eat and pay rent. Options:
1) Go bk at young age. 2) Call the banks and tell them: my family can help, but they don’t want to help the banks. Please help me to avoid bk. The banks offered him a new payment plan: zero rates and 72 months x $500/month. The zoomer got a higher paying job. He got married and within three years cut his debt. His Fico score rose to 780. His banks offered him car loans, mortgage loans and new credit card lines.
How much did his wife weigh?
Feels like a Trump induced recession. It feels deflationary as well. At some.point it feels like a demand collapse will cause a price collapse.
– Feels like a Trump induced recession. > This recession has been long in the making, and has much more of Biden and the Democrats induced than anything Trump has done.
– At some.point it feels like a demand collapse will cause a price collapse. > I have mentioned this before, and can’t quite figure out why it still has any legs at All left. The housing collapse is well on its way, and yet no price collapse as of yet. The builders will never get back what they put in at this point. Those projects were started years ago, with land purchases, and excavating etc. Many of these homes are or will be coming to the market soon, but with little to no buyers on the landscape.
>> We have a collapse in EV & GV purchases, as anyone who needed a car and could afford one has bought one. Now it’s a matter of keeping it. The vast majority of cars manufactured now, will sit idle for quite sometime imo. Rent, food, and necessities will out weigh a new car purchase for the better part of the next decade imo. We have years to make up for in lost time. We have mismatches in earnings Vs. Cost of living increases. People are not earning enough to keep up with maintenance cost of a home right now. Property taxes have skyrocketed upwards (my town went up 50% from the prior value, as did many of the surrounding towns as well). Prices will have to come down, or things will not move imo.
red v blue team pom pom girls actually don’t get it’s pro wrestling and bullshit performance fighting. don’t ever change kids. it’s great stuff to watch the audience participation in pax dumbfuckistan and idiocray.
we get it … you’re one of the smart marks. probably the smartest mark who’s ever lived. please keep coaching all of us ignorant fools with your hard fought wisdom. after all. the tone of your posts implies you must be the ultimate poet warrior with more skins on the walls that he can even count.
Fake negative Q1 2025. Fake positive Q2. A bearish Q3. After cutting rates in Q3 and in Q4 ==> no recession in 2025 and no recession in the first half of 2026.
Don’t like something? Call it fake and feel that dopamine hit
RIP Lee Elia
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XDNVhw6ThSI&pp=0gcJCfwAo7VqN5tD
“However, BLS data and methods are so poor”
Speaking of poor BLS data, the CPI report is due out tomorrow.
To save money, the BLS has recently cut down the number of price observations and will instead use estimates of the prices instead.
I will not be surprised if the “data” shows declining inflation.
WOOOOHOOOO
It must be the weekend coming
35% tariffs on Canadian goods starting “next month”
Notice sent with the most “impressive” letter ever
Geez, doen’t anyone have the balls to tell him that “his” writing style is shit (who really writes em)? Like a pimply teenager trying to impress
https://bsky.app/profile/crampell.bsky.social/post/3ltnpcniwqc2d
Employment numbers will drop as soon as war begins. Anyone drafted and does not desert by the end of the war can have their student loans discharged.
Trump: We’re going to do mass deportations, end the war in Ukraine, downsize the federal government, and reduce the national debt. We’re going to release the Epstein files and take control of the Panama Canal, and also make Greenland part of the United States.
Just kidding. We’re just going to bomb the Middle East like we always do.
A+
Everyone that did not vote for Trump correctly identified him as a false bill of goods, and warned those who refused to listen