The strait is open to the total tune of 4 ships on Wednesday.
The Toll Booth Is Open for Business
The Wall Street Journal reports Iran Tightens Its Grip on Hormuz Despite Cease-Fire
Iran told mediators it would limit the number of ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz to around a dozen a day and charge tolls under the cease-fire struck by President Trump, showing Tehran plans to tighten its grip on the world’s most important energy-shipping lane.
Ships that pass will have to coordinate with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the powerful paramilitary group that has been labeled a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the European Union, Arab mediators said.
Four ships were allowed to pass Wednesday, the fewest so far in April, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, down from more than 100 a day before the war. Iran is requiring ships to work out toll arrangements ahead of time and then pay the fees in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan, mediators and shipbrokers said.
The possibility of Iran’s permanent role in the administration of the waterway is alarming the Gulf’s energy producers, who rely on the strait for the bulk of their exports, and to energy consumers across Europe and Asia.
The U.S. is still pushing publicly for a free and open strait. But Iran isn’t showing a willingness to loosen its grip. In the waterway Wednesday morning, Iran was broadcasting via marine VHF radio that ships without permission to cross from the Revolutionary Guard navy risked being destroyed, according to a recording a crew member shared with The Wall Street Journal. The message was addressed to all vessels in the Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman.
Only six weeks ago, ships moved freely through the strait before the war without any military coordination with Iran. The new arrangements are altering the balance of power in the Persian Gulf and expanding Iran’s global influence despite the battering it suffered in the five-week war.
Shippers say Iran is already establishing a system of fees. In recent weeks, it has worked to formalize a tiered approach with ships carrying Iranian oil or goods passing freely, ships from friendly countries paying some sort of toll, and ships from countries aligned with the U.S. or Israel blocked altogether.
“Until something is relatively more formal than what it’s been, it’s going to be on a ship-by-ship basis, in which case it’s still going to be almost zero flow for the oil market,” said Neil Crosby, head of oil research at Sparta, an oil analytics firm. “That means it’s status quo.”
Shipping operators say fees are set around a week in advance and depend on the size of the vessel, with payments ranging to $2 million for a supertanker that can carry around two million barrels of oil, brokers and shipowners said.
Iran is already charging some fees in Chinese yuan, mediators said—a step that has alarmed regional officials as threatening reduced Western and allied influence over oil markets.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the biggest challenge once the war ends would be preventing Iran from imposing tolls, which he called illegal and dangerous. But he said the European and Asian countries that depend most on the strait for energy supplies should be the ones to act if Iran tries to impose tolls. The U.S. would be involved in any effort but doesn’t need to lead it, he said.
“This has been the economic catastrophe that everybody could have predicted, that everybody was predicting, but Trump did it anyway,” said Erik Meyersson, the chief emerging markets strategist at the Swedish bank SEB.
White House Takes Victory Lap
Who Really Won the Iran War?
That was the subject of my post earlier today Trump Declares ‘Decisive’ Victory, but Who Really Won the Iran War?
If the US accepts Iran’s 10 demands, Trump reportedly has, including a toll booth, Iran will have won.
More Humiliation for Trump Is Ahead
Iran can keep the strait closed. It is doing so with military ships that were allegedly destroyed.
Trump’s only options are to break the truce, make more concessions to Iran, or delay again with oil prices heading back up.
These negotiations can last a long time. Either Trump makes major concessions or it’s ‘déjà vu all over again’ in a few weeks.
Victory Math
- $2 million per tanker times 100 tankers per day = $200 million per day in tolls when fully open.
- Price of oil, fertilizer, aluminum, jet fuel, and gasoline all permanently higher.
- Money paid to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.
- Sanctions off
- Trump tells European countries they are on their own.
I am sure glad Trump won this war. Mercy, who knows what would have happened if we lost.
Amusingly, MAGA was crowing over this “victory” this morning.
Q: Why?
A: Trump called it a victory so they believe it
Here’s the real deal: A Strategic Loss to Iran Leaves Trump in Much Weaker Position
Netanyahu’s corruption trial in Israel is scheduled to resume Sunday…unless he is too involved in an emergency like a war
https://x.com/araghchi/status/2042279419197190201
Lebanon’s gettin’ bombed again…
Reports are only 8-9 ships have gone through the strait since the ceasefire was declared.
In reading I thought “wow, imagine being dumb enough to think we won this disaster of a war” and then got to this and my heart sank and wept for our nation:
“Amusingly, MAGA was crowing over this “victory” this morning.
Q: Why?
A: Trump called it a victory so they believe it”
We deserve all the bad ish coming our way, we truly have earned it.
I didn’t earn it. A bunch of mouth breathers brought it to me for free.
Trump cycle
Trump makes a stupid decision
Something bad happens as a result
Trump reverses stupid decision
Trump convinces followers that he solved the problem
Rinse and repeat.
Enjoy your New World Order middle powers.
Don’t worry, the US is actively joining the group
Best growth in the G7? By a wide margin?
If the US is joining the middle powers, then the middle powers are joining the no powers.
I think commentators here would do well to look at the economics and geology of “Fortress America”. The US is not the only world’s super power by chance.
The world’s only super power that just got publicly humiliated by a supposedly insignificant nation and is now paying war debts? Winners don’t pay reparations buddy.
Don’t know what your talking about there and its irrelevant any ways.
Trump may have lost but the US has won. This fiasco will hurt Europe and Asia for more than the US.
That’s a net positive for North America.
Trump “winning” and bringing Iran to heel would be a big loss US economic superiority.
It’s not actually over yet but an Iran win means higher oil and loss of political power for Eurasia. It also means even more sponsorship of radical Islam that is working so well for EU diversity.
Trump lost reputation, EU lost sovereignty.
Please do explain how Europe and Asia are hurt more! I’d love to hear how you think China will be paying those tolls and not just selling them more and more advanced weapons.
And as for Europe, I bet you think it’s a huge win they’re rearming at lightning speed and cutting us off, is that good for us? I’m sure they’ll have no sovereignity with their much more advanced power grid and moves away from oil that put them years ahead of America in the long run.
At this point I’m pretty sure you’d call a US carrier sinking a “big strategic win”, so lost are you in the depths of a copium binge. What’s it gonna take to get you to admit the sun’s setting old man?
It’s over, we lost. Live with it. Your grandkids certainly will!
wow, that was good for a laugh.
China will pay the tolls, or pay with weapon discounts to Iran, or pay with higher priced oil they use to get at a discount. Whatever money is fungible (google it kid) so they will pay one way or another.
Lightning speed? With what economy? Their GDP growth hasn’t exactly been stellar for a long time. What do you think is going to happen when they turn 2% of GDP into non-productive assets like war machines? High taxes, low jobs. The EU calling card.
And that still leaves them behind the US 3% GDP. Last year EU spent $400B to the US’s $1100B. Face it. The EU doesn’t have the chops.
How much trade does the EU do with the US? 10%? 15%? And the US exports 15% of EU’s crude. Hmm, what percentage of Hormuz oil was for Europe that the cut off sent them into a tizzy?
You mean that power grid that turned spain, portugal, and a chunk of France dark for the greater part of a full day? The power grid that has given Europe the highest electricity prices in the world? The power grid that requires huge amounts of US LNG to function?
Ya, good luck with that.
Who can sink a US carrier? Iran couldn’t and they specifically designed their defense to fight the US. Oh wait, that’s right they were holding back.
I’ve seen many high school kids looking like mince meat after fight say the same thing. I’m sure you’ll see it too when you get there.
Dude. You’re so drunk on hate for the US and Trump, you’re blinded to the fact that the rest of the world is falling down.
The sun is setting indeed, but it isn’t on the US.
And btw, I’m neither american or a trump fan. This is just my objective opinion when I pull my head out of the sand a look around.
You should try it sometime.
Iran has won. They control the strait. They are collecting the tolls
To the victor go the spoils.
Glad you finally pulled your head out of Trump’s ass.
Never said otherwise
But to say the US lost is to ignore the fact that the US had nothing to lose in the first place.
As to the Trump’s ass comment; you’re ignoring what I say to force your own narrative. That demonstrates an active effort to be ignorant and belligerent.
You should work on that.
Inside Tehran’s toll booth
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/inside-tehrans-toll-booth/
The losers in all this are the Iranian people, many of whom have fought for years and many of whom have lost their lives trying to end the Iranian governments harsh, theocratic rule.
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/midweek-update-5-this-is-no-taco
Theocratic rule is also what we observe at the head of the United States, with the supposedly “Christian” sect surrounding Trump.
=g to end the Iranian governments harsh, theocratic rule.
i almost cry. ! for Iranian people
so sad USA/GB did not succeeded in setting own ruler, and took all oil 50 years ago!!
/s
=nd the Iranian governments harsh, theocratic rule.
actually Iran has been pretty much always open country! since 1980xx
so it was easy for almost anybody to escape country! many did!
obv. IT IS NOT USSR.!
The beauty of religious rule is that the government becomes so stupid that the population loses its religion. The best thing for the Iranian people is to let the current theocratic government rule for another 40 years or so. See Ireland and much of Western Europe. Hopefully coming soon to the USA too.
Another MAGA who pretends to care about Iranian people while murdering them.
I dont think the Iranians are looking for a western style democracy.
my friends right now are saying ‘without a Supreme Leader who will say the cease fire should be upheld.’
so it is a different mindset then what we in America or the West have.
they still revere the Shah.
the hope is going forward that since the People stood with the IRGC that they will now relax some of the harsh rules.
Which was happening slowly. I mean, the people won the battle over the headscarves.
my point, and with all sincere respect, is the Iranians may not want what we over here think they should have.
You tell ‘em Taco Donny!
Trump gambled recklessly and lost. All of us are going to pay the price because the Very Stable Genius got snookered by Bibi and his gang of blood thirsty cultists. At least MAGAts got to “own the libs!”
When you gamble, you expect a win related to the odds; what were the winnings on the table? Please do tell.
What will he possibly offer us? Silence and confession he has nothing are my two guesses.
You don’t know? Bibi promised him a quick “excursion” with regime change (another Venezuela) and Trump gambled on that.
Epstien is completely gone from the news, mission accomplished!
“These negotiations can last a long time. Either Trump makes major concessions or it’s ‘déjà vu all over again’ in a few weeks.”
It has the feel of U.S. budget showdowns. Regular intervals of putting conflict on the back burner interrupted by brief episodes of panic and implied or actual chaos.
For a musical tribute:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=b4ztfrr8fls#searching
lets see I’m still trying to figure out all these days weeks that Trump throws out
https://giphy.com/gifs/funkofficial-xUPGcqaVH1cDeKZTBS
I read somewhere that Iran is asking for Crypto (Bitcoin in particular) to avoid US government sanctions at some point in the future. But it also works against China/Russia/Europe sanctions too.
Isn’t that what the whole purpose of bitcoin was to begin with? Speculation is that bitcoin will now pop to 100k and the options market looks good enough for some collars tomorrow morning for me.
Curious that Iran isn’t asking for silver or gold. I keep bitcoin around for situations like this, heck I may need to use it to execute my exit strategy at some point if things get ugly around here.
Another day, another great article and another way to profit.
1-Star Mishelin award granted. Would have been upgraded to two stars if post had included more in depth analysis of bitcoin and crypto (pros/cons and Iran’s best options).
If more countries start trading in bitcoin look out!
Now who’s going to be the first boomer to scream, “what in tar-nations is this cryptkeeper stuff, blah, blah, blah….get off my lawn!”
BTC isn’t really a good crypto though because POW is simply inferior to proof of stake. Etherium doesn’t whipsaw quite as much either but I wouldn’t wanna be holding the bag for either one since you’re likely to see a new crypto entirely if nations start using them.
There’s an easy way for Trump to get out of this pickle: kill the Israeli leadership. He clearly doesn’t have the balls to stand up to them, so he might as well bomb them.
=: kill the Israeli leadership.
another idiotic bs , AMERICAN WaY.
GOOD boy come to town, kill bad guys and every one is happy!!
=====
mor1on!!
there are 10 mil people in Israel . it has robust democratic system w. parties and many players!!
for single Bibi there is another dozen half of Bibi!
====
obv you have no idea WHO ACTUALLY RULES IN Israel
it is not civil institutions, it is people running Jewish faith: rabbis, etc
actually Israel pretty much looks like a Iran, only w/out single person on top!
alx
So much “Winning”. Are you getting tired yet?
I get really tired about folks saying let’s just take the Straight of Hormuz. Ok, who is gonna pony up the million troops and provide all the support to keep an effective percentage of them alive? Oh! And the 3-5 trillion to pull this off. Figure very optimistically 2 years minimum.
And even if it did happen, after 20 years and trillions of dollars we’d have Afghanistan/Taliban situation all over again.
Most Americans are clueless. That’s why Trump was elected twice.
People who say that plot themselves for you on the undesirable end of the Dunning Kruger curve. Keep track of who the intellectual barnacles are on the USS US
Brace yourselves folks. Energy and GDP are tightly correlated. 10% reduction in energy 10% reduction in GDP. If this mess gets worse ….
bs
Will you be pleased if the penalty is half what he says? What are you really expecting, anyway?
Meanwhile Netanyahu carpet bombs Lebanon during the ceasefire with no warning blowing up the ceasefire. When is Trump gonna actually grow some balls at cut off aid to Israel when they do shit like this?
Trump can’t. Israel has the Epstein tapes.
So what, we all know he’s a pedophile and SCOTUS has given him immunity. He has nothing to lose cutting Israel off and everything to gain.
Agreed, Trump just needs to come out and say it. MAGA dads will just start sharing out their teenaged daughters to their buddies and own the libs. It’s more winning! Except for the duaghters of course but who cares?
Perhaps Handmaid’s Tale is an accurate future documentary
so, what is the impact of a nebulous 2 week “cease-fire agreement”
for Trump, it eases domestic pressure
someone at the WH might come up with a magic bullet in that 2 weeks
but, it doesn’t change the cost/effect dynamics of the war
and, it makes the US look weak
for Israel, they don’t care, Bibi just want lands and death to Arabs
they’ll fire away at Lebanon and Iran
their war-mongering status becomes confirmed
for Iran, time is gold
the economic time-bomb is ticking and the bang will be 2 weeks closer
it was known that Israel would continue and the Strait will close justifiably
they can put out anything they want as being in that “agreement”
and it’s nice not being bombed by Americans
When we get to the end of 2 weeks–who will be the war-mongers and who will be the rational peace-proponents
How many of you all voted for Jared & Steve to be America’s most important officials and play act diplomat and geopolitics despite having no education?
They are Zionist tools. So that’s the only qualification they need in the corrupt US oligarchy.
They are both idiots.
I bet several of these countries are more worried about imports of food, water, empty grocery stores. Much of the population depends entirely on imported food.
Trump’s salvation may be Congress refusing to authorize war power.
Then he gets to TACO and everybody else will be blaming each other.
Actually that’s brilliant. Let the weak, radical leftists in Congress deny war powers and they can be blamed for losing this war. The STRONG, POWERFUL Trump would have crushed the Iranians but for the lousy, miserable libs. MAGA will eat it up.
CNN confirms there is actually no document forming the basis for the ceasefire
This is how badly Trump wanted out of this quagmire. My understanding is that the US created the message for Pakistan to officially send back to the US, where Pakistan asks the US to pause the destruction of Iran, and seek a two week ceasefire and negotiation.
This allowed Trump to back down on his end of civilization threat. Problem is he didn’t tell Israel, or the Gulf states.
It’s the same with all the “negotiations” that Trump kept mentioning. He made stuff up like, “Iran is begging me for a deal”, “we are having intense negotiations right now”. And Iran didn’t know what he was talking about. But at least they decided to draft a 10 point plan in case negotiations ever began. It was probably a text message. No official document.
And lo and behold, Trump was so desperate, he agreed to all their demands.
Yes, your assessment is probably the most correct one as to how it played out.
Wars are easy to start but very hard to end, as Trump is finding out the hard way.
I think Trump told Israel, but Netanyahu said no way Jose.
Bibi has trump by the balls now. Org it was donation money or the files etc. now trump is tied to bibis war. In Iran’s eyes Israel is the us.
Such an agreement isn’t worth the paper it isn’t written on. That aside, Israel will keep war going, chaos and destruction being their goal all along. They want to turn all their neighbors into dysfunctional states like Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen…
color me surprised
not!!!!!!
This is what the Magtards call winning.
Kill thousands of innocent people. New Iranian regime worse than the last. Nuclear material and program still there. Showed Iran how controlling the strait was easy for them to do. Pissed off all our Persian Gulf allies, causing hundreds of billions in economic and infrastructure damage. Pissed off all our NATO allies by not informing them of the plan, and then begging them to help bail us out. Run our deficit up to 2 trillion plus. Ask for $1.5 trillion military budget to replenish the thousands of missiles we just wasted for no good reason. Increased oil prices from $60 to $100+. Create shortages of fertilizer, helium, aluminum, natural gas, etc. Creating a worldwide recession out of nowhere.
Welcome to Trump’s Golden Age.
Feels like 1991.
This American Carnage starts right here and right now…
He’s by far the most incompetent president ever, and we’ll be paying for it for a long time. America is getting exactly what it deserves
Yeah i heard hegseth and part of the press secretary’s statements. Laying it on like the just won ww2. Winning
It’s a risky strategy. Trump hopes the economic pain of Iran’s demands on the world for 2 weeks will be so bad that the rest of the world will want to support the US and attack Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and toll-free.
Alternatively the UAE could build a canal through the tip of its country so ships could avoid the Strait controlled by Iran. If Iran tried to control commercial shipping in other territorial countries, it could face a military reaction.
If that is the ‘strategy”, that is a dumb one at best, since the rest of the world (minus China) lacks the military resources to help the US militarily in any meaningful way.
The Pentagon gamed and simulated the shit out of this. You’d need hundreds of thousands of troops to forcefully reopen the Strait. Such operation at this scale would take a t least a year to prepare and cost over a hundred billion USD. Much cheaper and easier to just pay the toll.
Oh no! Not a military reaction!
So all the UAE has to do is dig a Suez or Panama Canal. Easy peasy.
And Trump has given them 2 weeks in which to do it. No doubt no tolls.
Did you know a new book is coming out— by the Donald ? Title is …”How to enable America to trip on it’s Face ….. and then announce they Won”….. Of course you will get 50% off if you buy Donalds other book the…. “Art of the Spiel”… at the same time…….. Hurry as orders are now Unlimited.
I am sure Mish can come up with a better title lol
The Shart of the Deal
I heard it was going to be called The Art of the Squeal.
If most of the 10 points of the ceasefire framework stands, this will be America’s Suez Canal moment and the sunsetting of the US military and political hegemony.
It will also cement Trump’s position as America’s most consequential president in history. While FDR, Lincoln, Woodrow Wilson and Truman reacted to exceptional circumstances that they were thrown into, almost every major circumstance or crisis Trump faced/faces was of his own creation.
And the reality is that militarily speaking, there is virtually nothing Trump can do to wrestle the control of the Straits away from Iran.
Good. Let it sunset. We’ve been waiting since the Cold War ended 35 years for that “peace dividend.”. About damn time.
Every circumstance or crisis is of Trump’s own creation because he is a narcissist and this is what they do: manufacture chaos and conflict in an attempt to dominate relationships and keep the focus on themselves. The worst thing you can do to these people is ignore them. Pretend like they don’t exist. The data says narcissists will die lonely, isolated , and very unhappy.
I am all for sunsetting too, but I think American society is not ready for the implications of no longer being a global hegemon. The era of endless deficits and exporting inflation are over, and that will be a very hard and painful transition.
Oh yeah. The inflation is going to come home to roost. Foreign holders will trade their dollars for real things and leave us with worthless paper. For those of us who stay out of debt and have margin in our budgets, it won’t be as difficult.
We will see. This a 10 day taco. Will hell rein down or another taco
He can’t “rein down hell” on Iran without taking down the global economy with it and he knows it. That is why he TACOed. He has no options. He holds no cards. He put himself in a no win scenario out of pure hubris and ignorance.
And he’s a narcissist who suffers from low self-awareness.
I believe the 10 day thing was contingent on the strait being opened. Since it wasn’t, he’ll probably start threatening them with hell again.
Technically it is open as not completely closed. Ships are transiting. Ambassadors & lawyer time.
I think we all know what Trump meant by ‘open.’