If the US accepts Iran’s 10 demands, Trump reportedly has, including a toll booth, Iran will have won.
Trump’s Statement
Truth Social: The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Apr 08, 2026, 5:22 AM
Trump Agrees to Many Iranian Demands
Sanction relief is coming up as Iran demanded. Trump agrees to many Iranian demands.
I list the demands below, but first a declaration from Hegseth.
The US Declares Decisive Victory
The Wall Street Journal reports Hegseth Declares ‘Decisive’ Victory Over Iran
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared “decisive military victory” over Iran, saying the country’s missile program was functionally destroyed. “They can no longer build missiles” and the U.S. has destroyed Iran’s military industrial base, he said.
“By any measure, Epic Fury decimated Iran’s military and rendered it combat ineffective for years to come,” Hegseth said, referring to the military campaign’s name. Hegseth’s comments came hours after President Trump announced a two-week cease-fire, claiming that Iran had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Had Iran not agreed to Trump’s terms, America’s next targets would have been the country’s power plants, bridges, oil and energy infrastructure, Hegseth said. “We were locked and loaded,” he said.
We could have been in this position six weeks ago, but team Trump chose war. So what now?
The WSJ lists 10 Iranian demands that the WSJ says Trump will, or is likely to accept. Issues involving Israel are out of Trump’s control.
A Closer Look at Iran’s 10 Demands Which the U.S. Might Accept
- A guarantee of nonaggression
Inevitable as a condition for ending the war. Iran has suggested to mediators that China or Russia could act as guarantors. One question is whether Israel will agree to go along with it given what it sees as an existential from Iran. Israel has agreed to the cease-fire, however, and it needs U.S. military support in any future campaign, limiting its freedom of action. Iran also established some deterrence with its missile strikes on the wider region, which it could repeat in the event of a new conflict. - Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz
This would be a big concession by the U.S., one that would give Iran an important new source of revenue and leverage. Iran, which has effectively shut the waterway, will supervise traffic during the cease-fire and hopes to establish a system of tolls. For America’s Arab Gulf allies, it is a nightmare scenario. U.S. officials such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio have said it would be unacceptable for Iran to hold sway over the waterway, transit point for a fifth of world oil supplies, but it may be a fait accompli. Iran has control now, wants it to continue and can maintain it with only occasional strikes on shipping. - Accepting an Iranian right to enrich uranium
On its face this would allow Iran to keep producing fuel that could be used to build nuclear weapons, while the U.S. has demanded an end to enrichment and the dismantling of key nuclear sites such as Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan. But there could be wiggle room. Previous rounds of negotiations have looked at ways that Iran could maintain a symbolic hold on enrichment but with strict limits that reduce its risks. - Lifting of all primary sanctions
The U.S. has said it would lift economic restrictions on Iran if it agrees to its demands regarding the nuclear program. Ending America’s longstanding trade ban, in place since the 1980s, could pave the way for U.S. companies to sign deals to do business in the Islamic Republic, which is something Tehran openly encouraged in talks this February. Still, U.S. investors tend to be wary of the country because of its political risks and often corrupt and heavily bureaucratic system. - Lifting of all secondary sanctions
If primary sanctions are removed, U.S. bans on banking and trading oil with Iran could also be eased. The U.S. is able to pressure Iran through its dominance of the global financial system and lifting these so-called secondary sanctions could open a flow of revenue to support Iran’s battered economy. - Termination of all Security Council resolutions
Iran in particular is looking for the United Nations Security Council to drop a 2025 arms embargo. A similar ban had been lifted earlier but was reimposed last year as concern grew among European nations over Iran’s supply of missiles and drones to Russia to support its campaign in Ukraine. - Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions
This would be a considerable prize for Iran. But getting it to comply with nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty safeguards is also the U.S.’s main lever to compel Iran to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Lifting the International Atomic Energy Agency’s resolutions would be complicated given the patchwork of measures and jurisdictions including the U.S., European Union, individual European states and the United Nations, giving Iran hawks plenty of opportunity to object. - Payment of reparations to Iran
The U.S. is unlikely to agree to this but Iran and mediators have floated the idea of using fees on Hormuz traffic as a way to fund reconstruction. Other Arab nations have proposed using frozen Iranian oil funds in Qatar and elsewhere to finance Iran’s rebuilding efforts, an idea Iran is open to. - Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region
The U.S. had 40,000 troops in the Middle East before the war. Trump has wanted to reduce that presence, closing bases in Syria and some in Iraq. But these bases are also more important to Gulf monarchies now facing an emboldened Iran. The United Arab Emirates has already said it would double down on security ties with the U.S. Analysts say the end of the war will likely force a continued role for the U.S. in the region. - Cease-fires on all fronts, including against Hezbollah in Lebanon
Israel has refused to accept this and is unlikely to be persuaded to halt its attacks as part of the talks. Iran has stood aside over the past three years as Israel pounded Lebanese ally Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza and Yemen’s Houthis, so it is unlikely to be a deal breaker.
Yes, that is real.
So, Who really Won?
Some of the most hawkish voices in President Trump’s ear about the war in Iran aren’t pleased with some of the details of the cease-fire deal. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) said Wednesday morning that the agreement had some “troubling aspects” and that he wants Vice President JD Vance and the architects of the deal “coming forward to Congress and explaining how a negotiated deal meets our national security objectives in Iran.”
Mark Levin, a conservative talk-show host whose commentary on the Iran war has been followed closely by the president, was more blunt about his dissatisfaction with the cease-fire agreement. “These 10 points are an absolute disaster,” Levin posted Wednesday.
Major Victory for Iran
It’s hard to view the 10-point list as anything other than a major victory for Iran.
We could have been here 6 weeks ago and without point number two. Heck, we were in a better spot over a decade ago.
This deal is in may ways much worse than the deal Obama negotiated and signed on July 14, 2015.
Trump tore that deal up, claiming he could do better. Did he?
What If Iran Just Honored Obama’s Nuclear Deal? Would We Be at War?
On March 25, I asked What If Iran Just Honored Obama’s Nuclear Deal? Would We Be at War?
Trump’s First Term Flashback
- Trump’s US State Department: Iran honoring the terms.
- Trump’s Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: Iran honoring the terms.
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): Iran honoring the terms.
- Arms Control Association: Iran honoring the terms.
- All US European allies: Iran honoring the terms.
- Every other signee of the accord: Iran honoring the terms.
- Trump’s top general Gen. Joseph Dunford: Iran honoring the terms.
- Trump’s Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis: Iran was complying with the terms of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal
All of those points are on Congressional Record. Both Gen. Joseph Dunford and Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis told Congress that “Iran was complying with the terms of the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal.”
You can believe whatever lies you want, but you cannot deny Congressional record.
Iran was honoring the deal. Click above for details.
And now …
Iran Trolls Trump
Joint Venture With Iran?
Joint Toll Both Would Be Beautiful
“We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it, also securing it from lots of other people. It’s a beautiful thing”
Fox News Doesn’t Like the Deal Either
Satire of the Day?
Israel Was Informed Late About Cease-Fire Deal and Wasn’t Happy
The Wall Street Journal reports Israel Was Informed Late About Cease-Fire Deal and Wasn’t Happy
Israel, which wasn’t formally part of the Iran negotiations, expressed unhappiness after learning that a deal was finalized at a late stage without consultation.
Israel said it had halted attacks on Iran but was continuing military operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah, prompting protests from Iran.
Iran signaled its intention to continue asserting influence over Hormuz and some ships reported receiving radio messages from Iranian forces saying they needed Iran’s permission to cross the strait. Few ships transited the strait on Wednesday.
Some Trump-aligned hawks, including Sen. Lindsey Graham, criticized parts of the Iran cease-fire.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said its fingers are “on the trigger” ahead of negotiations set to start Friday in Islamabad.
Gulf countries including Kuwait, Qatar and the U.A.E reported continued missile and drone attacks despite the cease-fire.
Ship Passage
Please note that Ships Aren’t Yet Moving in the Strait of Hormuz
In the waterway Wednesday morning, Iran was telling ships anchored near the strait to obtain permission from the the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy before crossing or risk being destroyed, according to a marine radio recording shared with The Wall Street Journal by a vessel crew member. Crew members stuck in the Persian Gulf said that warplanes are still present, and they haven’t received any clear guidance from Iran—or their local agents—on whether it is safe to pass.
According to ship tracker MarineTraffic, there are 426 tankers, 34 LPG carriers, and 19 LNG vessels in the Persian Gulf among hundreds of other containerships and general cargo vessels.
My Assessment of What Happened
- Trump, not Iran was desperate for a way to de-escalate.The10-point deal proves that.
- Trump appears ready to accept some Iranian demands that the US laughed at six weeks ago.
- Iran knew Trump’s weak point was higher gasoline prices and inflation, ultimately forcing Trump to a deal.
- Trump gets to declare victory, which everyone knew would happen no matter what.
- The US and Iran may have a toll booth on the strait. This means higher energy prices permanently. Oh well “look at the money we will be making.”
- All of the above came at a cost to Iran too. Devastation is everywhere.
- But hey, all sanctions will be removed. This will give Iran money to rebuild. Kushner will be working on deals soon.
- Israel and the warmongers are not happy. That’s always good news.
Short Summation
Trump’s Denial
Truth Social: Numerous Agreements, Lists, and Letters are being sent out by people that have absolutely nothing to do with the U.S.A. / Iran Negotiation, in many cases, they are total Fraudsters, Charlatans, and WORSE. They will be rapidly exposed after our Federal Investigation is completed. There is only one group of meaningful “POINTS” that are acceptable to the United States, and we will be discussing them behind closed doors during these Negotiations. These are the POINTS that are the basis on which we agreed to a CEASEFIRE. It is something that is reasonable, and can easily be dispensed with. It’s very much like Fake News CNN last night, headlining a “source” that had no power or authority to write a Letter claiming great authority. President DONALD J. TRUMP
Apr 08, 2026, 10:04 AM
Questions and Answers of the Day
Q; Was this a good ending point?
A: Compared to “Living hell” and Trump’s pledge that “Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight”, of course.
Q: Who won?
A: Iran, obviously. But Iran threw Trump enough bones that Trump can declare victory.
Q: Will Israel go along?
A: No.
Q: What happens to gasoline prices?
A: Down from here, probably sooner than later, but definitely higher than before Trump made this mess.
Q: What about fertilizer, helium, aluminum, and other targets destroyed by Iran.
A: Prices will be much higher, permanently. It will take years to fix Mideast infrastructure damaged in this stupid war.
Q: How does this impact the midterm election?
A: That’s very difficult to answer, but likely little from here. The key words being “from here” other than a possible short-term bounce.
The war was undoubtedly very bad for Trump. That’s why he was desperate for a deal, even one with onerous terms as described above.
Trump may have stopped further damage today, but permanently higher inflation remains a huge problem.
Declaring a total win will not change inflation dynamics baked into the cake. Nor will it fix damage caused by entering a voluntary war despite numerous pledges not to do so.
Strategic Win for Iran
Time to Cheer
You can cheer if you want. Heck, I am cheering! Any alternative is better than a “Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight” regardless of what Netanyahu, Lindsey Graham, and Mark Levin say.
You can call it 5D chess if you want. But if that’s what you think, you are only fooling yourself.
The attacks on Trump by Tucker Carlson, Mark Levin, and other extreme Right commentators will take some chips out of hardline MAGA supporters.
Trump repeatedly said no more wars and lower inflation.
Trump lied and that damage is not fixable. That’s worth cheering too, but it comes at a price of war, higher inflation, and extreme mistrust of anything Trump says.
By the Way, Iran Has More Demands
The war is not over and will not be over until there is total regime change. Trump is very adept politically. He knew that any cease fire would not last but used it to mollify the crowd. Read the commentary here. Once the cease fire is broken he will go back in and finish the job.
By the way this has global ramifications first in Europe and then here. Watch the news
If you would like I can let you know when the war IS over.
+1,300 point relief rally 4/8 no help to Market
As of 2026-04-07 12:00:00 AM CDT (updates daily):
The Stock Market is Significantly Overvalued according to Buffett Indicator. Based on the historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (currently at 210.8%), it is likely to return 0.2% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.
Meanwhile, based on the historical ratio of newly introduced total market cap over GDP plus Total Asset of Federal Reserve Banks (currently at 174%), the stock market is Significantly Overvalued, and it is likely to return 0.1% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.
Trump has lost. Israel has lost more. Israel will face an uphill battle in the world community and will suffer both politically and financially. My conjecture: China will step into the affairs of the Middle East. China will assist in rebuilding Iran and, I do believe, Lebanon – perhaps even Gaza (not Trump’s enterprises). Israel’s American long-standing bankroll is in jeopardy like never before. America is bankrupt in more ways than fiscally. Even young American Jews are appalled at what has transpired in this part of the world. This war has illuminated the world’s dependence upon a stable Middle East. Israel has been shown unquestionably as the usurper of peace. Netanyahu has hurt his people from within the Jewish community to an extent not seen before. The containment of the “Greater Israel Movement” will become a reality and a necessity by both East and West. This has changed everything. I suppose that Trump has achieved something very unexpected indeed.
Obviously there is no deal.
The substance has not been discussed, negotiated, committed to writing, nor signed.
America does not honor deals, Trump never makes sense, and anything he says is literally meaningless.
This is a time-out, so the US side can think.
Nobody knows what the substance of the deal is, and the 10 Iranian demands have been circulated widely by top Iranian officials on social media etc. Agreement to those 10 points would be tantamount to complete American capitulation.
Furthermore, for all the people emphasizing the role of Israel, please think it through.
Israel cannot even get to Iran without active US agency.
Anything “Israel does” means “US does” through Israeli hands.
Israel is a 100% American subsidiary, a branch office.
Trump obviously wanted out of this thing desperately. I fully expect the Iranians to negotiate nothing other than how fast the US can get out of the Middle East and how much they’ll charge to transit the Strait. Maybe they’ll cut Trump in personally on some of that revenue to keep him honest. But once gas prices drop substantially and the market climbs back up, there is no way Trump is going back in. No way. He lost, He’s out, and if anyone brings up Epstein he’ll start eyeing Cuba.
It’s interesting you think the war is over.
As long as we’re talking religious wars
The White House threatened the Pope that the Vatican better take the US’s side on issues because they had the military might, and reminded the Pope about the Avignon Papacy (1309 to 1376) when the popes were held in Avignon as “guests” of the French monarchy.
Might explain why there was no Catholic service at the Pentagon…
Link?
Here is Fox News reporting on HuffPo’s reporting of the fact there was no Catholic Mass on Good Friday.
Excerpt from Fox piece: “The report cited a memo sent to staff by Air Force leadership that read, ‘Just a friendly reminder: There will be a Protestant Service (No Catholic Mass) for Good Friday today at the Pentagon Chapel.‘
https://www.foxnews.com/media/huffpost-panned-report-suggesting-pentagon-excluded-catholics-from-attending-good-friday-service
Not sure that link supports the assertion that this is a sort of warmed-over Avignon.
the assertion that this is a sort of warmed-over Avignon Ya right never passed over their lips
https://x.com/mattiaferraresi/status/2041825883301044675?s=20
I found a link. No idea of or to what extent accurate.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/pentagon-threatened-pope-criticized-trump-212552754.html
Hegseth is a postmillennial Christian. He wants religious theocracy by Christians for Christians. That may have a lot more to do with his denying Catholics.
Hegseth’s tribe idealizes what you could loosely call Christian Sharia law in the US and exporting it to every country around the globe.
He also has a Deus Vult arm tattoo and crosses of the Crusaders on his chest.
https://www.reddit.com/r/50501/comments/1sbo7qf/i_infiltrated_one_of_the_churches_affiliated_with/
The beauty of the United States is that Christians are absolutely free to follow any laws they want to make for themselves. There’s no need to involve the rest of us. Muslims are free to live under Sharia law in the US if they want, also. Think alcohol is bad? Don’t drink it. Think abortion is bad? Don’t have one. See how easy it is?
its all going as planned Hegseth invited Christian nationalist Doug Wilson to preach at Pentagon – The Washington Post
Who Really Won the Iran War is very tough to answer…
If we truly could have been here 6 weeks ago, then absolutely nobody won, and many lost.
If we truly will be able to verify all Nuclear dust, waste, enriched materials etc. are gone, as is the ability for Nuclear Weaponry, then perhaps the World won.
If Iran can truly still have the ability to enrich and move towards Nuclear Weapons, then Iran perhaps.
“nuclear dust”
just because our ignoramus president uses that phrase, you don’t have to
….Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium fits into canisters each weighing about 50 kilograms (110 pounds) when full. The material is in the form of uranium hexafluoride gas. Estimates on the number of canisters range from 26 to about twice that number, depending on how full each cylinder is.
The 10-point plan explicitly requires the world accept Iran’s right to enrich Uranium. No mention of any oversight. It also requires the removal of US military forces from the region and the end of all sanctions. Iran won decisively.
On the face of things who won the war is not difficult to answer.
Iran is much better off than it was.
The US spent lives, $ and political capital and got nothing except most hated nation status.
Nobody wins wars, aside from the ruling class that causes them and never does any of the fighting.
As a Colonial War II veteran told me, there are no winners in wars, just survivors. Of course, he meant his brothers in arms, not the bankers.
The Military Industrial Complex thanks you for your help in keeping their dirty secrets.
Trump and his INSIDER TRADING PALS made billions.
Its unknown how many Americans died in that fiasco in the desert that ended up with a Blackhawk and 2 C-130’s being destroyed.
What was that mission anyhow? I mean, you don’t send 2 C-130’s to pickup a single pilot.
But you do send them on a failed uranium extraction mission! See what I did there?
The mission was to descend into a shaft and do something about the uranium.
Somebody let slip out “mountain scaling equipment”.
The Iranians have details of the plan (personal effects of Major Amanda Ryder).
Not to put too fine a point on it:
It’s all about taking the uranium out of the iranium
Iran says the US has violated the ceasefire and there is no need for talks now.
And now Trump is saying that the US hasn’t agreed to the 10 point plan being circulated. Apparently details of the plan are still being dicussed…in private. He just posted this to his truth social. You can’t make this shit up. What a moron.
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/116369934305888462
Ah yes, Trump trying the old “But I pulled out” trick.
Iran tells the truth. Ask ’em. They’ll tell you. Except for that whole missile/distance thing they committed to. Oops.
OMG how stupid are you?
How deep can a US sub dive?
How fast can it go underwater?
How deep can it be and still fire missiles?
How fast can an F35 fly?
What military anywhere would release classified info except maybe the drunk in the pentagon.
“Trump lied and that damage is not fixable. That’s worth cheering too, but it comes at a price of war, higher inflation, and extreme mistrust of anything Trump says.”
The message was sent loud and clear to all nations around the world — The best way to deal with Trump is to completely ignore him. The USA just lost credibility.
25th amendment before Trump does even more damage.
lol, your opinion. Hilarious!
Well looks like reports of the cease fire being over. . Bibi did not agree to a truce with the proxies. If all this is true. Looks like trump is getting drug back in.
He was never out – no matter what he thinks. And word is he’s planning on sending Witkoff and Kushner to Islamabad. No way in hell Iran will talk with those two.
Iran did talk to them…and then the US attacked while they were negotiating.
Did DOGE get rid of all of the competent people in the State Department??
Can’t we at least send a gentile?
That rhetorical question was an effective closer
lol, another Trump expert with another expert opinion. We were running low on opinions, but luckily here you are.
No taco for piggy!
The cost in military and weapon expenditure, increased costs and economic impact likely to be in the hundreds of billions … for what? A new income stream for Iran? A veto over activity in the gulf? A break from the post WWII world order now completed?
Believing trump because he is saying something we want to here is no better than trump believing his cabinet worship. Everything we get from US and Iranian governments is propaganda and nothing from MSM is believable anymore. I am going to hold off celebration until we have an agreement signed aboard the USS Missouri in Tokyo Bay moment.
Iran doesn’t have a ship they can put in the Chesapeake. Maybe they can borrow an oil tanker from the Persian Gulf.
The point was both sides present in full view in front of witnesses and press.
the ceasefire deal seams tb showing signs of unraveling.
Strait is now closed.
Israel is still attacking and occupying Lebanon so Iran will not enter negotiations
Time is on Iran’s side
Two weeks of ceasefire will tighten the economic vise
Meanwhile, US buying Katyusha units for restocking
Such a hard road to a Nobel prize
Iran won. Grab your burkas bitches.
There’s plenty of heifers in this country who would look better in a burka. BTW, Iran doesn’t do burkas.
Fat jokes are what smart people employ to remind other people that they are so smart they can just rely on fat jokes to make themselves look clever and original.
Mish is now delusional
Israel has murdered 254 civilians since the cease fire, and Iran just told your daddy to fuck off.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/4/8/iran-war-live-trump-announces-truce-tehran-agrees-safe-transit-in-hormuz?update=4474838
al jazerra. they tell the truth. just ask ’em. lol, you’re a good boy.
Go touch yourself to the bubbleheads on Fox.
please keep your fantasies to yourself or with your family members.
Cling harder to Trump’s ego, little one
When you say “Mish is now delusional” you are supposed to follow it up with “because …”. It should be a factual point that creates a reasonable argument that others might find interesting. Leaving as you did just makes people think you are drooling.
And snot is running over his lips and chin and onto his shirt.
who won – the inside traders and others capable of timing the market.
most everyone else was a loser in this stupid endeavor.
I got some Chevron stock on sale. Thank you, Mr. Trumpstien!
Whenever the White House or the Pentagon loses, we the people win.
Looking at various sources on the alleged 15 points the US is demanding, they can be coursely grouped into a few categories.
Take this with a grain of salt, as the alleged 15 points that I found from various unconfirmed open sources are not fully consistent, so I distilled them into broad categories. As I said, this is all open source, pulled from the internet.
From top to bottom in terms of alignment/disalignment on Iran’s 10 points:
1 Cease Fire/War conclusion – close alignment – no issue here assuming resolution of the other points of contention.
2 Cessation of attacks on Gulf neighbors – close alignment (Iran states nothing about this, but I guess they will agree to this if they can close other disconnects)Rocket/ICBM residual capability – again, Iran says nothing about this, so I am going to assume they can agree to a long term outcome that allows face saving on both sides.
3 “Open the fuckin’ strait” – the biggest disconnect is in whether tolls are part of this or not. Iran says yes, US says no conditions on the strait. I’m assuming again that they will come to some agreement that allows face saving. Maybe drumpf will declare victory if Iran gives the US a portion of the Iranian toll, or agrees to let Iran share with the Gulf states (or both). Either way I am betting that Iran will walk away with real money here, likely in the long run.
4 Proxy support – I predict that Iran will dig in and refuse to give up all support to their proxies, as allegedly demanded in the US points. I’m guessing some face saving outcome here too, but this may be a bit tough.
5 Nuclear production – this is probably the hardest point of contention. The US demands allegedly require pretty full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran
OTOH is demanding full and unconstrained nuclear production rights. Perhaps there will be a compromise here, similar to what Mish suggests in this article.I agree that this is a positive outcome given that Israel and insane Lindsay are not happy with it. It’s funny that Lindsay is demanding the JD come brief Congress on the agreement, bc he is too afraid to put his master on the Congressional stand.
I don’t know if this will get resolved in 2 weeks, but if it doesn’t, drumpf will TACO again and extend the deadline. There will be numerous violations of the cease fire by both parties, but overall, my prediction is that the heavy fighting is over. As it currently stands, Iran is holding the strait hostage still, but I see this gradually opening as Israel is forced to stand down very reluctantly. drumpf is desperate enough to ensure this bc he has finally admitted that he desperately needs the fuckin’ strait to open.
“ There will be numerous violations of the cease fire by both parties…”
The important ones are going to be attacks on ships. Without complete safety, who will insure the ships?
And without that, the Strait isn’t open.
Iran just showed how geography gav them a huge, huge leverage,point over the most powerful country in the world.
Play big – Win big
Trader Makes $23 Million In One Day With Massive S&P Call Purchase Hours Before Ceasefire
He smelled the attempted taco.
you misspelled “was told about”
The only way this is, or ever becomes 5D chess, is if he can leverage this to do a “hard reset” on the US-Israel relationship and get that parasite off our back.
The NYT piece by Habberman sets the stage for just this — in summary: everyone in the cabinet said NO, Israel (Witkoff, Kushner and Bibi) took him aside and said YES, it will be over in 3-4 days, a little longer than Venezuela and you will be seen as a hero.
Could it be that Trump played Israel? Because, while this fiasco did have a cost, if it gives us the opportunity to distance ourselves from these murderous thugs, it will be worth it. Problem is, Israel always has a Plan B when told NO– just ask JFK.
I wonder if Iran would accept “We’ll leave, and you can fight it out with Israel and your other neighbors.”
Anyone who believes The Grifter In Chief will honour any deal or has any influence on agreeing a deal is delusional. I said Iran would kick the US’s ass weeks before it started & they did. This isn’t over by a long shot, oil prices will reach new historical records, the straits of Hormuz are already closed, Saudi pipeline East to West is already damaged, Kuwait had received hits to their desalination plants & power plants.
This is just another con game to lower oil prices, lower yields & push stock markets up before they collapse. How anyone can believe this war was started & now will cease giving Iran everything they demand is beyond me. Arrogance & hubris doesn’t do ceasefires or deals.
The war will continue, those who started this war will never stop until they are totally destroyed. The con man is already claiming Iran agreed to all his demands & Iran says he agreed to all their demands, do not get ya hopes up cuz this is a fight that will only end when the US totally collapses. The Grifter in chief desperately need a ceasefire to restock & reassess & knew the only way Iran would agree or be unable to say no is to pretend he will give them all they asked for.
They know he lies about everything. They probably only even entertained this as a PR move.
Does their civilization end at 8pm again?
Oceania is run by dishonorable cruel tyrants. Cruel to their enemies, cruel to their allies, cruel to their subjects.
I doubt the war is over, that the ceasefire will hold, or that Oceania will agree to anything except temporarily to prepare for their next attack.
What does Australia have to do with anything…
I’m not sure what you mean by Oceania here
Now you’re geographically disoriented
For those unfamiliar with the reference:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_geography_of_Nineteen_Eighty-Four
Every average citizen on the Planet who uses Fuel or buys goods made from Oil in some way –are all Losing big-time and probably for several more months at minimum. Israel and their buddy —little trump –will keep this War game going.
Found on internet:
First, the war was started by America and Israel, not by Iran. There was no threat from Iran. This makes starting the war a war crime, the same crime for which many Nazis were hung at Nuremberg.
Second, there is no evidence that the Iranians had or were trying to get nuclear weapons. This is the consensus of the American intelligence community, who were under ferocious pressure to find otherwise.
Third, every person who condemns Iran without noting that that America started the war discredits themselves.
Fourth, every person who condemns Iran’s attacks on Gulf States without noting that the reason those states are being attacked is that they allow the US to launch attacks from their territory, discredits themselves.
Fifth, Iran has clearly stated that all the Gulf States have to do to stop being attacked is to stop allowing attacks from their territory and stop allowing Americans to have bases there.
Sixth, by both international law and by common sense, if you allow attacks on a third country from your country, you are a co-belligerent, whether or not your own military is involved. This matters specifically because the closer air power is to where they’re bombing, the more often they can bomb. The bases also matter because they hold (or did, till the Iranians destroyed most of them) communication and radar systems which aid America.
Seventh: If the Bushehr nuclear plant has had missiles land as close as the auxiliary building. The Russians have taken the threat so seriously that they have withdrawn their technicians. It is on the coast and if there is a containment breach, given the prevailing winds, fallout will contaminate the Persian Gulf. This will end desalination, which is how the Gulf nations get almost all their drinking water. It is also likely that the radiation will make the UAE and parts of Oman uninhabitable. All the oil from those regions will never be usable again.
https://www.ianwelsh.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Bushehr-Containment-Breach.png
Notice that such a containment breach will damage America’s allies far more than Iran. The map above is only partly accurate, the winds change and often blow south or west and not just southwest. Iran does have blocking mountains which should protect it quite a bit, but radiation is nasty stuff.
Eighth: Iran is capable of entirely destroying Israel. If nuked and possibly in the case of a containment breach, the majority of their arsenal will continue to exist. It is almost all hidden in deep underground mountain missile bases. In such a case Iran can retaliate by:
Iran does not need nukes to destroy Israel. It can do so any time it chooses and this is a fact which American and Israeli planners seem to discount. Iran is a fairly ethical nation as nations go, and they also don’t want to kill Palestinians and Lebanese. But there are 32 Mosaic commanders. If Tehran is nuked, well, all it takes is for one of them to decide to get revenge.
Ninth: At this point Iranian missiles are getting thru a lot, because interceptor stockpiles are depleted. Claims of high interception rates are as believable as similar Ukrainian claims.
Tenth: it is not possible, absent perhaps dropping many nukes, and perhaps even then, to take out Iran’s ability to launch missiles. And even then if any are left, well, it won’t take many to wipe Israel off the map.
Eleven: Iran is not going to sign a ceasefire deal, because they know that Israel and the US will keep assassinating their leaders and eventually launch another war. Well, I was WRONG. I suspect Iran’s making a mistake, but we’ll see. Iran is saying Trump accepted their 10 point proposal, if so Iran won the war and this ceasefire makes sense.
Twelve: There can be no peace deal which leaves the US any bases in the region, because the US is, to use the delightful Russian phrase “agreement incapable.” The US has never kept any agreement it didn’t feel like keeping and it certainly won’t do so with Iran. Any promises to never attack again and stop assassinations cannot and will not be trusted by Iran’s leadership. This means Iran must win the war decisively, in a way that makes it as difficult as possible for the US to attack again (no bases in region) and Israel too scared to do so because they know any attack or assassination will mean immediate and savage retaliation.
Thirteen: The Iranians have included Lebanon and Hezbollah in their demands: Israel will have to withdraw from Lebanon and stay out and not bomb it ever again. Again, this is a maximal goal and requires a complete victory.
Fourteen: Iran is never giving up control over the Strait of Hormuz. This is especially true now that their industry and civil networks have been hit hard. They will need a lot of money to rebuild. They have also said they want reparations. I don’t think that will happen, but I could be wrong. The more damage the US and Israel do, the more Iran is incentivized to use Hormuz as a lever to get money.
Fifteen: A side effect of this war is that weapons stockpiles have been drawn down from the entire world. There was never any possibility of the US winning a war with China, there is no longer any possibility of even fighting such a war.
Sixteen: None of the weapons being used up can be replaced in any significant numbers without Chinese materials, and even if China cooperates it will take at least a decade to rebuild credible stockpiles.
Seventeen: Iran has pushed the Americans back significantly. Their sortie rate has dropped, and they are running out of stand-off munitions. That means they have to fly closer and risk their planes, and if they insist on using Gulf bases they risk planes being destroyed on the ground, as has already happened.
Eighteen: Carrier groups have been forced back to maximum range. They are no longer the Queens of the Sea, and it is not credible that they could be used against China or Russia, both of whom have longer range missiles and in the case of China, enough to simply deplete the entire carrier group’s interception missiles.
Nineteen: Barring the use of nukes, Iran will win this war. The longer it takes and the more damage that is done to them, the more they will use their control of Hormuz and their ability to hit any Gulf State, to obtain the needed reconstruction funds and assistance.
Twenty: Internationally this war is the end of the American global Empire. Everyone knows how to defeat them now. They will retreat to the Americas and try and push around local states. China and Russia are big winners, Europe’s deindustrialization will accelerate and Europe will continue its descent into a meaningless backwards and poor region.
Twenty-One: The economic impact of this war, even if it stopped today, would be bad enough to cause a major worldwide recession. If it continues, we will see economic devastation which will last for years. There will be famines. There will be brown outs and blackouts. Jet travel will only be for the wealthy. International trade will crater due to lack of bunker fuel and most goods will rise in price and/or become rare, how much so depending on where you live. Price increases will be much higher than necessary in the Anglosphere, in particular, as oligarchs use the excuse to jack up prices even more than they need to and governments do nothing to stop them. The AI bubble is most likely toast. Oh, and prices of all devices with chips in them are about to soar throught the roof.”
https://www.ianwelsh.net/twenty-one-simple-facts-about-the-iranian-war/
I think I need a drink.
kids, this is why drugs are bad, m’kay.
The most disturbing aspect of this operation remains the assassination of Iranian political figures during negotiations. This permanently tarnishes America’s image in most countries of the world. Furthermore, it significantly diminishes the potential condemnation that the murder of American political personnel abroad might otherwise provoke.
It was dishonest and dishonorable. A Pearl-Harbor-like sucker punch. Who would ever negotiate with the US again with an iota of trust? And done on a whim. It is to the eternal shame of the US-Israel cabal.
Other sources suggest the U.S. attempted to overthrow more than 50 governments since 1945.
Beyond direct coups, the U.S. has interfered in the elections of over 30 countries and attempted to assassinate more than 50 foreign leaders since 1945.
Democracy, Human Rights, Freedom of Speech are double standard and fake.
No credibility since at lease WW2.
Ha Ha what a game. So Trump’s ace up his sleeve was just to accept anything and call it a deal. Saves face with his base, throws Israel under the bus.
He played everyone. Noice!
So this means the middle east is right back where it started, sans a few religious nutbars. Oh well, they’re a dime a dozen. I’m sure a few will crawl out of the woodwork now that they don’t have to fear being bombed.
Hopefully this will destabilize the IRGC enough that the Persians can take over, the only possible good outcome from this.
…Or he flips over the table and bombs start falling again tomorrow. Welcome to a Trump presidency.
“the Persians” but not the Persians currently in charge the other Persians from Persia obviously.
Do you also call Taiwan “Formosa”, grandpa?
I say Persians to distinguish from the Islamist minority that currently run the place and the majority of people that want the pre-islamic days back.
Otherwise I would be saying “the Iranians” but not the Iranians currently in charge the other Iranians from Iran obviously.”
Currently reading a good book on the history of Iran – it is really interesting the depth of thought and sophistication in the population. Even the current regime comes from a background of deep thought and strategic thinking – so it’s no surprise that they have out maneuvered the US.
Grateful if anybody can point me to a good history of New York real estate grifters – sure I’ll be impressed by that as well.
Contrary to the MSM-manufactured image of Iranians as religious fanatics and conquerors, traditionally, Persians were the “people of the pen”, the poets, scholars, artists, intellectuals, thinkers, scientists, philosophers, and aesthetes. Persian was the language of culture from Bosnia to Bangladesh.
Turks were the “people of the sword”.
100% – they would be in the G20 easily if they could lose the radical nonsense.
Don’t you mean absent Anglo-American nonsense?
Who can say where they would be today if they had left the country alone to develop on its own terms in 1953.
no one is saying that. could be the voices in your head.
They’re serious people. We aren’t.
“We?” You mean by that the Epstein class that rules the US, don’t you?” We have nothing to do with it except fork over our earnings to the tax collector.
Operation Epic Fiasco lived up to its (real) name. If all this ends up with a joint US-Iranian shakedown operation in the straits, we definitely live in a different world.
It seems to me there is a new superpower emerging….Iran. Russia, China and the US are all suffering demographic death spirals. It was curious the draft age was raised to 42 in the US. Seriously 42? That’s past middle age!
The middle east on the other hand has a fairly young population and growing.
Simply sort the median age chart from low to high and the picture becomes clear.
All Trump achieved was raising Iran’s status in the region.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age
Total fertility rate in Iran is only 1.67. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fertility_rate Iraq is 3.17 and Jordan is 2.57. So it varies. Persians are not Arabs.
Economy has been brutal there for years… not surprising.
you really have to lay off that sugar quicksand at the bottom of the cereal bowl.
He was saying he won a month ago. He’s saying it now. And he’ll still be saying it after another few months of war.
Today is April 8th not April 1st. Taco is clearly the most deranged, sick idiot among us. Difficult to believe anything he says unless you are using his lies and capitulations to trade securities. I read where Biden said, “Thank God for Trump.”
Just move your cursor up a hair on the calendar, and whoops, it’s April Fools
Soldiers are far from done giving their lives in service of Trump’s ego
They’re giving their lives for cash & an early small pension not for Trump, they are giving their lives cuz they can’t get a proper job & prefer to sit in bases thinking they’ll never have to fight.
Regardless if you hate or love Trump, trying to be objective and high level here on the outcomes i see: A) US is the #1 producer of oil / gas, long-term this should actually help the US B) the US bombed the heck out of Iran and disrupted leadership and military infrastructure. This did not happen in the US. C) This war puts pressure on China’s oil supply D) the entire middle east is now against Iran.
Sounds to me like the US won decisively. Obviously there are downsides, but again, high level / strategic.
Get a bleepin grip. Free flow of oil will help China and Iran more than anyone.
Strategic Win for Iran. Guaranteed.
https://x.com/MishGEA/status/2041929839465406757?s=20
A) The US produces half their daily oil needs & shale is in decline.
B) The US bombed fake military hardware, civilians building & haven’t disrupted the leadership at all, leaders are replaceable, you can’t kill an ideology. All their military infrastructure is intact & vast 500 meters underground or under mountains, impenetrable even using nukes .
C) The war has put zero pressure on China cuz their ships go through, it puts intolerable pressure on Europe the so called allies of the US breaking apart the fake relationships.
D) The entire Middle East citizenry are all with Iran & cheered every hit in their country with US bases going up in smoke, the only one against is Iran is the dictators running the countries & enslaving their people.
Sounds like the US got their ass kicked & you are delusional & clearly stupid.
I appreciate your response. You could have just made your points and I would listen. Punctuating it by saying I am delusional & stupid is poor character.
Bebe is playing I double-dog dare you today against Trump.
Trump is psychotic enough to announce he’s cutting Israel off of all aid even if Bibi has Epstein photos of Trump. At this point, Trump is finished so what does it matter?
Link?
this is what happens when you don’t check the oxygen level in your infirmed uncle’s O2 tank.
Do we get a taco, or do we get new Epstein videos?
Or does Trumpstien just stroke out from the stress?
I’m on the edge of my seat.