Manufacturing production inched into positive territory but the overall index is still in contraction.
Please consider the June 2025 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® by Susan Spence, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management®.
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in June, a 0.5-percentage point increase compared to the 48.5 percent recorded in May. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 62nd month after one month of contraction in April 2020.
“In June, U.S. manufacturing activity slowed its rate of contraction, with improvements in inventories and production the biggest factors in the 0.5 percentage point gain in the Manufacturing PMI®.
“The demand indicators remain mixed, with the New Orders and Backlog of Orders indexes contracting at faster rates, while the Customers’ Inventories and New Export Orders indexes contracted at slower rates. A ‘too low’ status for the Customers’ Inventories Index is usually considered positive for future production.
“Regarding output, the Production Index increased month over month and is now in expansion territory, however; the Employment Index dropped further into contraction as managing head count is still the norm, as opposed to hiring. The mixed indicators in output suggest companies still being cautious in their hiring even with an increase in production.
What Respondents Are Saying
- “Business has notably slowed in last four to six weeks. Customers do not want to make commitments in the wake of massive tariff uncertainty.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
- “Middle East unrest as well as unstable long-term tariff positions continue to impact second- and third-tier sources, which is applying pressure to material costs. Costs are up 6 percent to 10 percent over budgeted inflation — and the forecast accounted for the volatility expected with the current administration.” [Wood Products]
- “The biopharmaceutical space is starting to see more pronounced headwinds: Stock prices have significantly eroded, companies are facing hiring freezes, and so on.” [Chemical Products]
- “The tariff mess has utterly stopped sales globally and domestically. Everyone is on pause. Orders have collapsed.” [Machinery]
- “Tariff volatility has impacted machinery, steel and specialized components. Also, potential shortages of skilled labor for construction, maintenance and installation.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
- “Tariffs continue to cause confusion and uncertainty for long-term procurement decisions. The situation remains too volatile to firmly put such plans into place.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
- “Tariffs continue to impact material pricing.” [Petroleum & Coal Products]
- “Tariffs, chaos, sluggish economy, rising prices, Ukraine, Iran, geopolitical unrest around the world — all make for a landscape that is hellacious, and fatigue is setting in due to dealing with these issues across the spectrum. Unfortunately, this is just the beginning unless something drastically changes, but the supply chain implications will grow — depots will not be stocked, less material will be available, and it will take years for domestic production to handle the needs (if companies even want to).” [Primary Metals]
- “The geopolitical environment remains volatile: (1) ongoing shifts in U.S. tariff policy make it difficult to plan, (2) emerging conflicts in the Middle East could pose long-term commodity risks and (3) China measures on rare earth materials are causing challenges. Overall outlook for our company is positive; it’s just extremely hard to make near-term supply plans/strategies or budgets.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
- “The word that best describes the current market outlook is ‘uncertainty.’ The erratic trade policy with on-again/off-again tariffs has led to price uncertainty for customers, who appear to be prepared to hold off large capital purchases until stability returns. This has resulted in further reductions in customer demand and softening sales for the balance of 2025. Operations has planned additional weeks of downtime at multiple plants to accommodate reduced orders. Next year’s forecast is not any better at this point. Additionally, most electric vehicle (EV) projects have been delayed or canceled, resulting in a significant amount of unutilized capital investment. EV technology launches for 2026-28 have been delayed past 2030.” [Transportation Equipment]
That’s one hell of a set of comments. They are anecdotes not data, but representative of the damage Trump is causing.
Related Posts
June 30, 2025: Trump’s 90 Deals by July 9 Morphs Into a Quasi Labor Day Target
With 9 days remaining [now 8], Trump has only one deal, and it’s just a framework.
The Death of Reciprocal Tariffs
On May 28, the Court of International Trade struck down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
Trump’s violations of law were so flagrant that the court went straight to a summary judgment instead of issuing a temporary restraining order (TRO) while hearing further arguments.
However, On June 2, I noted Trump Gets a Meaningless Stay on Tariff Ruling.
Trump got a stay on reciprocal tariff rejections, but he has other options.
Please read the above post for all the reasons Trump will lose the appeal.
Meanwhile, Trump pretends to make deals. And nations pretend to negotiate in good faith.
The sharp jump in production could be exporting companies trying to get products out the door before even more tariff increases take place. The decreases in employment and backlog hint at an expected downturn afterward. Businesses are battening down the hatches.
If I spend a few minutes on a comment I do not like it being deleted when it’s a response & makes the whole conversation distorted. Now I know ya allow all comment Mish but please do not delete my comment as spam or I’ll just not waste my time.
I’m done, I spent 10 minutes on that comment typing. Responding to someone who chooses not to read & answers like I said the opposite of what I said. I’m a one & done type of guy, can’t risk another wasted ten minutes.Let the ignorant teach themselves.
I’ve had this happen to me countless times especially if you include a lot of links.
What I always do before I hit ‘post comment’ is select all the text I type (CTRL-A or use mouse to highlight) and hit CTRL-C to make a copy. That way if the post gets eaten you can post again using CTRL-V and then editing it until it successfully posts.
The line many of us focus on if we do not need a job or aren’t business owners but which impacts us in every financial/life transaction.
Prices. Increasing. Faster.
Fed’s job #1 is price stability. Epic fail.
And folks will clamor for lower rates here.
Sheeple can clamour for lower rates but the only ones that matter are those with money to loan the Government, they want higher rates & higher risk premium. The US is too risky & no tramp choose from the menu, they get what they’re given.
What strikes me is the number of individuals who have their head in the sand regarding the destruction and dislocations that TACO is causing on a daily basis.
The primary reason that TACO is scolding Powell each and every day is in hopes the dollar will continue to decline and boost exports while curtailing imports.
Regardless of one’s political leanings (that should take second place), the focus should be on policies that are best for the US overall.
Powell just trolled Trump.
CNBC reports “Powell confirms that the Fed would have cut by now were it not for tariffs”
It doesn’t matter what Powell says, the market will determine the long interest rate, Powell already cut & rates went up, this is why he’s to scared to cut or raise rates. Sheeple think the Fed can fix problems by cutting, good luck with that.
Doesn’t the wannabe Fuhrer have a lot of commercial real estate? That is in a massive collapse up to 80% down, how much debt does he have on these investments, he’s desperate cuz he’s going broke, that is why he desperately goes grifting to the Middle East but they’re broke too. This is also why he’s ripping off his own dumb followers with shitcoins.
His personal net worth has skyrocketed since he won the election.
So he’s definitely not going broke. On the other hand some of his real estate holdings may be doing so and undoubtedly he’ll let those go and keep his winners of which he has many.
Oh dear! Grow up, his net worth is based on assets, the biggest one currently his shitcoin. It’s irrelevant anyway, his real assets are near zero, it’s called life, he won’t starve but he will die soon being close to 80 years old. The only real asset worth anything is youth & health, maybe that’s why he’s such a nasty F’er, he knows he’s done & knows where he’s going.
Assets are assets. Doesn’t matter whether they are stocks/bonds, real estate, businesses or crypto.
Current net worth estimated at 5+ billion. That’s a lot more than it was the last time he was president.
Winners?? What winners are these, he even paid for his wife which is an immigrant by the way, didn’t he bring her parents into the US & naturalise them also in his first term. Do you really believe winners behave as he does? You really need to be re-educated about life, everything he had was handed to him or he bought with money that he was handed to him, winners create from nothing & do so with morals & fairness. Winner my backside, he’s the biggest loser currently alive in the world. He’s The Grifter in Chief, this idiot loses everything he touches.
He seems to have won the presidency twice as much as you hate to admit it. So he clearly isn’t a loser in politics.
Who cares where he (or anyone else) got his start from. It only matters in life where you finish. I highly doubt he finishes broke.
You are either reading the graph upside down implying his net worth has skyrocketed or ya admitting he is what I say he is The Grifter in Chief & corrupt since his net worth “Skyrocketed since election” like Biden hey? Ya wrong on both counts but it shows ya stupidity supporting this idiot & ya delusions he isn’t corrupt. Ya basically admitting so while lying to yourself.
The Soviet citizens used to say before it’s collapse “The Gov pretends to pay us & we pretend to work”, The US is COLLAPSING!
Some time after the collapse of the USSR, there was a magazine called “Exchange” or something like that. Russians would exchange things like “apartment in Moscow for a VCR and a Fiat“. I’m not kidding you. Some people took advantage of it, and with a little patience they made good money. Others jumped in with dollars and bought real estate worth fortunes. Most people stayed out of it, because of justifiable uncertainty. Difficult to believe that you could get a 3-bedroom apartment downtown Moscow for $2,000 or so.
But I don’t see a “collapse” of the USA. I do see a split in the foreseeable future, due to strong conflicts of interest. If Republicans keep the Presidency and either the House or the Senate, with this back-and-forth “business as usual” course, it won’t happen. If the current Democrats get the Presidency and the House, and start this primitive socialism thing along with open borders, the split will be inevitable and very close. Mandani said it on camera that their ultimate goal is to “seize the means of production” after all – primitive stuff.
Apartments in the Soviet Union were Government owned, so I doubt that is true. $2000 in the early nineties would have bought an apartment in most countries around the world. If you believe there is any difference between Republicans & Democrats ya foolish in my opinion. They both are parties of Wall Street, oligarchy & war. There are no differences between the Soviet Union & the US apart from the economic system, they share exactly the corruption, inequality, overreach & military waste. How the US goes down can be debated but it’s still going down. The US is bankrupt & will lose it’s last thread, the reserve currency which kept it on life support. It’s not rocket science, the US is spending far more than it can borrow, it’s over, unlike the tough Soviets who came out of it with the help of global growth & tenacity the US will never recover & the spoilt uneducated lazy Americans will not recover. Sheeple should get real, this is the historical norm, many have been though it, Romans, Dutch, Portuguese, Spanish, French, British etc
No, there was private property at the time. Some properties were exchanged even for IBM PCs (ordinary yet expensive in Greece, but considered pure gold in Russia). I think the process was that you would buy it from the State through an authorization of the previous occupant.
Personally I thought the magazine was mostly scams, but even Greeks took advantage of it (though many ended up with useless apartments away from the city or useless car parts).
And with Russian soldiers having bought plenty of military hardware too, in my town’s Sunday gipsy market at the port you could find rifles, special binoculars, etc. How do you think the island of Crete all of a sudden got so many AK-47s?
Let alone the hookers – thousands of them, well educated, multi-lingual and very pretty. Some local travel agencies wanted to hire them because they also spoke German and English, but almost all of them preferred to be hookers.
Hope is a double edged sword, it can keep you going or could be lulling you into a false sense of security stopping you from making plans to limit you own exposure. At least the Soviet citizens were not used to luxury, had the spirit of sharing, were tough & able to take pain, these are the exact opposite of Americans.
Luxury? Most of them hadn’t know what an aspirin was, quite a few had never had coffee (except those from East Germany). We’re talking huge poverty.
But “sharing”? Nope, not at all. They could kill for a cassette player. It was one of the topics for discussion among the locals, that the migrants from both Russia and Albania were ruthless and had zero ethics.
You have a very low opinion of Americans. In our experience, they were the most generous and forgiving as tourists (everyone in Europe wanted American tourists over anyone else), and when I came here I found them to be far more open minded than most Europeans.
Of course things changed when politicians convinced you to hate each other.
One last thing, I blast politicians & corruption all the time, call society sheeple for believing them, you’re comment about politicians convinced to me to hate is absolute nonsense. Americans are the most selfish sheeple on earth, how you can say they are kinder than Europeans is really dumb considering healthcare is free in Europe, this isn’t a contest, all societies have good & bad. The point is living beyond ya means, the US has the reserve currency allowing it to loot the world & still it wasn’t enough. They are bankrupt, they have to adjust voluntarily or by force. It is this adjustment I describe.
Quit will ya, Mish deleted my response so I ain’t wasting my time, totally distorted the conversation, might as well delete it all.
When you said that the Soviet citizens had the spirit of sharing, that’s where you lost me.
You should probably hear stories of Greek students in Romania and Russia (who would go there if they failed to pass in a Greek university), passing classes without reading a line, by trading grades for pantyhoses, jeans, cigarettes, whiskey etc. – and how the Russians were sabotaging each other at the universities, and how the Romanians were reporting each other to the local authorities just to get the loot – and perhaps a better apartment.
Only the Yugoslavians, the Hungarians, and the East Germans were half-decent. From the rest of the Soviet societies, most were borderline “barbarically indifferent” in the way they treated each other.
You should probably hear stories from the locals themselves.
Similar degradation of ethics (but not that bad) we experienced in Greece during our “South-American style” socialism in the 80s.
Yeah, America has problems. Amazingly the USA contributed heavily in fixing those problems in other countries (Japan, Germany, even Greece, after the war), but couldn’t do it for its own citizens.
So the next time you hear that a US school district is lowering standards for reasons of “equality”, you know what’s going on – Americans are doing it to themselves.
PS. Greece got a public telecommunications company and a public electricity company after American intervention and financing through the Marshall Plan.