Moments ago I reported 115 New Deaths and a South Korea Mayoral Alert “Stay Indoors”.
The alert was issued by Daegu mayor Kwon Young-jin.
With that, the mayor just told a city of 2.5 million to “stay indoors”
That’s highly unlikely until it’s ordered.
The alert follows news that the South Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare reported a total of 104 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 1 death, more than double the 51 cases reported yesterday. Of the newly reported cases, 28 are linked to churches associated with known confirmed cases (5 at one church and 23 at another) and 14 are linked to hospitals (1 at one hospital and 13 at another). In a briefing earlier today, South Korean MOH officials announced that they expect to identify additional cases linked to the churches.
Another Wuhan?
Unqualified and inexperienced bureaucrats are handling a complex and difficult quarantine for a highly infectious virus. This was bound to happen in many places.
— Jason Burack (@JasonEBurack) February 20, 2020
Seoul to Daegu Trains
Please consider the Rail.Ninga Schedule
High-speed bullet train from Seoul to Daegu is definitely one of the most comfortable ways to journey between the two cities as it will take you from Seoul Central Station to both Dongdaegu station or Daegu station in just about 2 hours. High-speed Intercity train Mugunghwa, as well as express trains ITX-Saemaul and ITX, provide an amazing opportunity to travel with comfort though the trip will take approximately 3,5 hours. It is worth considering that ticket prices are almost the same for each type of train, so ardent train journey enthusiasts who value fast connections will be satisfied. With more than 80 bullet train departures depending on the weekday, an extensive train schedule allows you to plan your upcoming adventure absolutely worry-free. Already feel inspired to tour South Korea? Check Seoul to Daegu train timetable and book the best tickets with Rail Ninja, the online booking platform for European trains.
Direct Flights
Via Korean Airline there are many flights between Daegu and the USA. Here are some I found on SkyScanner.
Fed Minutes Highlight Coronavirus Concerns and Uncertainty 8 Times
Yesterday I commented Fed Minutes Highlight Coronavirus Concerns and Uncertainty 8 Times
Those minutes are from a January 28-29 meeting before there was much of any concern elsewhere.
Please note that Half the Population of China, 760 Million, Now Locked Down
From an economic standpoint, January say the Largest Shipping Decline Since 2009 and That’s Before Coronavirus impact hit.
Supply chain disruptions have barely started.
It is impossible to estimate the full impact as long as cases are spreading. Worse yet, cases are exponentially rising outside of China.
https://twitter.com/MattyM1965/status/1230588492624941056
Stay Indoors, Really?!
How likely is that?
Is there something that need to be done other than a suggestion?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Or maybe not. Amazon currently sells N95 masks made by Eco Solutions. And apparently they were made in …… the Hubei province. I kid you not.
First, I doubt that these city wide quarantines are that effective. Eventually everyone has to wander. If we are as a country, U.S., are unlucky enough for this to become an epidemic here. I plan on following the simple techniques that have been explained in depth so far. Also I intend to cooperate and follow public health advice. I have kept substantial food and medical supplies for emergencies, and I plan on trading and sharing and assisting my neighbors, and hope that they will do likewise. I firmly believe that cooperation, sharing, and common sense will prevail over hording and panic.
Same with Japan. Anything rail related, Japan does better in terms of convenience, etc. That means, faster transmission. But then again Japanese people are really good about wearing masks. So maybe not.
Wont be long before you catch the flu and then we will see how a sophisticated empire handle it
The US has a max of 100K ICU beds. They are reserved for true capitalists. The rest are supposed to go home and die 😉
In this situation, population density is a key factor in infection rates.
I’m assuming within a couple of years every country on the planet will have full exposure to this virus. Govs can slow the initial spread down, but humans move around too dang much to keep this thing (which is transmissible days if not weeks before symptoms appear) from spreading to every corner of Earth.
Did hear some good news on NPR about a recent study: in a sample of infants who tested positive, none of them developed severe symptoms. And in a sample of pregnant women, no vertical transmission, from mother to fetus, was detected.
I suspect this thing is already wide spread and mostly mild or without symptoms. The stats mostly catch the serious cases and the news focus on the deaths.
Not widespread now in the west, probably installing itself though. We don’t know the wider results of infections properly yet, but it is known that it causes fatalities, some not well explained, so I stay cautious .
Young people are immune by design. I think this was China’s answer to Social Security/Medicare, that accidentally got out ahead of time.
You mean a bioweapon designed to kill old people? I doubt that.
Mmhmm, sure. They know how to specifically engineer this property? And they tested it on whom?
A similar dramatic scenario would indeed be a gift from heaven, even for democratic and ‘civilized’ western wellfare states,like mine….Social liabilities have become entirely unsustainable in recent decades…and ruthlessly ticking !
The Chinese data shows the same thing – almost no one under 20 gets it, and if they do, it is very rarely fatal.
Under 10: 8% as likely as average to get it, no recorded deaths
10-19: 11% as likely to get it, .2% chance of death
20-29: 54% as likely to get it, .2% chance of death
30-39: 1.13 times as likely to get it, .2% chance of death
40-49: 1.18 times as likely to get it, .4% chance of death
50-59: 1.6 times as likely to get it, 1.3% chance of death if you do
60-69: 1.8 times as likely to get it, 3.6% chance of death
70-79: 1.8 times as likely to get it, 8.0% chance of death
80+: 1.8 times as likely to get it, 15% chance of death
Note that co-morbid factors increase with age (diabetes, hypertension, respiratory issues, heart issues, diabetes), and all of these increase your chances of death. How much of the chance of death increase with age comes solely from the co-morbid factors is unclear, but clearly much of it does. If you have no co-morbid factors, you have 1/8 as much chance of death.
thinks children might have a surface immunity due to catching colds, although that might not explain why they show less symptoms if infected.
Very interesting. Hmm, so cold OC43 be used as a vaccine. OC43 can be fatal, too, but must less often than SARS-COV-2
I don’t know, it seems possible but these are all preliminary studies, it takes time to test and corroborate data.
As Kram says, there is no certainty. If it has mechanisms that are basically lethal, and circumventing existing immunity being a natural evolution of it, then it might evolve into more dangerous for the population as a whole. There are younger age groups who are severely affected, small compared to older, but without obvious reason for their severity.
Correct. It seems to be mild in its symptoms and kills mostly the older people. But let us not forget that it also mutates rather rapidly! The danger is still not past, perhaps just beginning.
Infants and toddlers produce antibodies to viruses automatically because of the higher content stem cells in their system. It takes their immune system about 2 or 3 days to do this. It takes an adult about 1-2 weeks to do this and the immune response can be poor in an adult even when doing this. So maybe stem cells are the answer to highly virulent strains of viruses like Covid-19.
It was posited a while back, in one of these studies, that the number of vaccinations children have add to their innate resistance, since the immune system is “reminded” several times by vaccinations in early childhood and early teens.
In the UK, kids get childhood vaccinations as follows:
First 16 weeks: vaccines against 12 diseases
1 year old: vaccines and/or follow up doses for 3 diseases
3 year old: second MMR jab and a 4-in-1 preschool booster
2-10 years old: flu jabs annually
12 years old: HPV vaccine (think only girls get this)
14 years: one 3 in 1 vaccine and one against meningitis
I read this a few weeks ago, and immediately booked a flu jab in the hope of doing the same.
On the flu jab: the NHS tells people they should get a flu jab but doesn’t say why. For example, if you are asthmatic you get a free one. I am a mild asthmatic, but I never bother, because I am a mild asthmatic. I’ve had nasty colds and the flu a couple of times, but never got lung issues. Turns out that there is more to this: I should have a flu jab because asthmatics have low ACE2, which means our lungs are more susceptible to irritation and less well able to repair themselves.
So if the ACE2 coronavirus hypothesis holds, I am both at more risk and at less risk. Schrodinger’s corpse.
Makes me wonder about their neighbors to the north. North Korea will be a forest fire.
They’re already locked down. My hunch is they’ll button up all transportation and wait it out. Perhaps the strategy of being a hermit kingdom will work in their favor? Heck, give it another year and Kim may be able to march on Seoul or even Beijing without opposition.
Watched Kubrick’s classic ‘Dr. Strangelove’ last night on TCM. As General Turgidson pointed out it is time we stop thinking about the ‘what ifs’ of Coronavirus and realize an insane General Ripper has launched his bombers. China is knocked out for the duration and its bottom feeding allies, like Iran, Russia and North Korea are on their back foot too. The PLA, as it is being used for political and quarantine enforcement, will be infected with the virus and useless for military operations. Trump has a handful of aces as long as the virus is kept out of the Americas. Will he play his hand?
the fragile american and european debt founded houses of cards won t be safeguarded from a awful demise if a doom scenario were to materialize !
Stay Indoors, Really?!
How likely is that?
…
I think of a big snowstorm. Many will stay in for a day or two. Then cabin fever and reality set in (like, uh, we need food and stuff … oh, and going back to job … if possible … to earn $$s) and folks will venture out … carefully. Demand will crater, nevertheless … leading to a cascade of economic unpleasantries.
I vaguely recall that South Koreans, not so long ago, sent balloons with packets of cash, letters and CDs aloft over the DMZ so the people of North Korea would find them. Maybe they still are. If so that is a big problem for Kim Jong Un and, might even be considered an act of war!
Especially as Glorious Leader has a few comorbidities of his own.
My guess is that their quarantine programme involves constructing lots of woodpiles rather than hospitals.
S. Korea considers raising alert level [to red] over coronavirus
As this hits the old hardest the impact on Japan and Korea could be particularly noticeable.
From looking at the data, saying that it targets the old isn’t exactly accurate. It targets people with diabetes, hypertension, respiratory problems, heart problems, and cancer. The death rate for people with co-morbid problems is 8x as high for people with none of them. Now, as it happens, all of those problems become increasingly common as you get older, thus making it kill primarily the elderly.
If I can find some data on how common each of those problems are for different age groups, I can try to mathematically back them out of the data. I expect that if I am able to, the elderly still have a higher death rate than the young, but it is much less extreme. Thus, if you are 70 and healthy, you will probably be ok, but if you are 70 and have a co-morbid factor, this could hit you very, very hard.
I’m reading stories of more fatalities in Iran, iraninternational is saying nine ( biased source maybe), others are much higher and likely propaganda – that is how it will be with the country probably, lots of stories of different kinds. I think Kuwait and Iraq have stopped flights from the country though.
I’ll include the feed here for Iran international, I don’t know the source but it doesn’t seem like a full on propaganda site, just with a certain slant against the government
Wash you hands. Too many people don’t and many of those who do, are not doing it correctly.
Some time back I read from a now forgotten great source that the two things you need to keep yourself healthy is clean hands and clean bottom.
Both, as the thousands of medical personnel infected realize, is extremely difficult to do. Face masks help but, over the course of a day, to not scratch your nose or rub your eyes is really impossible. You do it automatically without thinking.
If you wear a mask and glasses there is an automatic barrier to remind you. Medics are all day in potentially infected environments, we have it a bit easier, especially if we don’t have to work in public. For those who do wearing mask and glasses is going to remind to wash hands first, even if with hand gel.
You can build a small protocol for disinfection when out of public. This is not professional advice, there are resources on the web for this, but as example :
You wear mask and glasses till home, you wash your hands, remove the ppe and clothing and place it in wash, shower, disinfect all points of contact between entry and shower (using hand sprayed disinfectant for example).
The difficult part maybe is where you are between the two – you work in public but stop for lunch without proper decontamination say. I guess keep on glasses and keep in mind not to touch the face?
It is difficult to do, but I often see people not even trying. Some seem to think that washing hands is uncool or are just lazy.
Endemic in the U.K. nothing will change it. People will just look at these stats and think “it won’t happen to me, I am too young”, and won’t care if they pass it to somebody else who will die as a consequence.