Before discussing the results, it's important to note that Australia's "Liberal" party would be deemed as conservative in the US.
With that fact out of the way, Liberal Scott Morrison was reelected despite all polls suggesting otherwise, for two straight years.
Nearly all polls predicted Bill Shorten would have an easy win with a 51:49 lead over Prime Minister Scott Morrison on a two-party preferred basis. In fact, for two years the polls had picked the Opposition to take government.
Instead it was a shock loss for Labor which was hit by a blue sweep through Queensland, less than desirable results in Victoria and a return to the status quo in Western Australia.
Former Newspoll boss Martin O'Shannessy blamed the flawed forecasting on the fact that many people's telephone habits have changed.
ABC election analyst Antony Green agreed the sampling used to be much more reliable. "They switched from an operator asking questions to randomly calling mobile numbers and robocalls," he said.
Psychic Croc Gets It Wrong Too
Social Media Expert Picked Trump, Brexit, Morrison Correctly
Data mining expert from Griffith University Professor Bela Stantic, who predicted Donald Trump's election to US presidency and Brexit, uses his own methods to gauge opinion.
Through his own independent research, Professor Stantic analysed 2 million social media comments relating to key terms and predicted Labor would not pick up the key seats needed.
What Happened to Climate Change?
It was supposed to be the big issue of the 2019 Australian federal election: climate change. A range of polls and surveys had left many analysts, myself included, with the sense that this would be a crucial issue at the ballot box.
The annual Lowy Institute Poll demonstrated stronger support for climate change action in Australia in 2019 than in any previous survey since 2006.
But in the end, we saw a decline in the primary vote for the Labor Opposition, who had announced a more significant reduction target than the Government and a suite of measures — from investment in renewable energy to an energy guarantee — to get there. More consequentially, of course, we saw the re-election of a Government with limited ambition on emissions reductions.
It's the Economy, Stupid
The article notes some victories by the Greens but not enough to overcome quality of life and job concerns.
In Queensland, constituents view large scale mining operations as a crucial potential source of income and employment.
In this election, Australians were suddenly faced with a prospective Labor Government ready with a suite of measures to tackle climate change. And they were presented with an account of these measures as a devastating economic blow to Australian prosperity and growth.
Climate Change Battle
The Global Warming Policy Forum has some interesting quotes in AFTER ANOTHER DEFEAT, CLIMATE POLICY THREATENS TO DEVOUR LEFT PARTIES.
- We have lost Australia for now,” warned Penn State climatologist Michael Mann in an email. “A coalition of a small number of bad actors now threaten the survivability of our species,” he said. –Joe (the-end-is-nigh) Romm, Sink Progress, 18 May 2019
- Scott Morrison’s ‘miracle’ election win has been cheered by US conservatives and compared to Donald Trump’s surprise 2016 presidential win. The Liberal campaign had emphasised the cost of Labor’s climate change policies – which included reducing carbon emissions by 45 per cent by 2030. And while Labor campaigned against the controversial Adani mine, the Coalition focused on the jobs boost of the new development. On Saturday night, former Australian Prime Minister John Howard said Labor’s stance on climate had cost them the election. —Daily Mail, 19 May 2019
- The coalition successfully made cost the dominant issue in the climate change debate. Climate change may be the first battle in the long war that is reshaping democracy all over the world. —The New York Times, 19 May 2019
- For Labor, this is an untrammelled disaster. Climate policy too will need to be re-examined. Climate change destroyed Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard’s prime ministerships; it has now contributed to Bill Shorten’s destruction too. Voters accept the science and they tell pollsters they want something done. But whenever conservatives frame climate policy as a threat to voters’ livelihoods, they win. –Ben Eltham, New Mathilda, 19 May 2019
The End is Nigh
Mercy me. The end is nigh. The survivability of man is in question says Penn State climatologist Michael Mann.
And of course AOC says, among other things, we only have 12 years to live.
- AOC "New Green Deal" Stunningly Absurd: Far More Ridiculous Than Expected
- AOC's Green New Deal Pricetag of $51 to $93 Trillion vs. Cost of Doing Nothing
- Hilarious Video of 8-Year-Old Imitating and Mocking AOC
Number 3 is priceless. Here is the video in a Tweet.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock