“I think a bill can be big or it could be beautiful. But I don’t know if it could be both.”
Beautiful or Big, Not Both
Musk made his comments on CBS News Sunday Morning.
CNBC has these Comments from Musk.
“I was, like, disappointed to see the massive spending bill, frankly, which increases the budget deficit, not just decrease it, and undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing,” Musk said in a clip the program shared on social media platform X.
DOGE says it has saved $170 billion in taxpayer money since it began in January, targeting areas of government waste and redundancy in sometimes-controversial ways.
For instance, it has gutted the U.S. Agency for International Development and reduced staff elsewhere. DOGE-related moves have been responsible for some 275,000 government layoffs, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a consultancy firm.
The sweeping One Big Beautiful Bill Act by contrast, is projected to raise the federal budget deficit by $3.8 trillion over the next 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan agency that conducts economic analysis for Congress. The deficit is on track in 2025 to run close to $2 trillion, with the national debt now at $36.2 trillion.
Clip on X
“I think a bill can be big or it could be beautiful. But I don’t know if it could be both.”
Musk said he believes the legislation “increases the budget deficit” and “undermines the work that the DOGE team is doing.”
Senate Vote
It is unclear how Musk’s comments will impact the Senate vote on the Big Beautiful Bill, if at all.
But I fail to see how those comments can possibly help get the bill passed.
More likely, Musk’s comments will provide a bit of cover for some budget hard liners, making negotiations more difficult.
The Ugly Truth of Big and Beautiful
In a WSJ Op-Ed, Senator Ron Johnson’s comments on The Ugly Truth About the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’
In fiscal 2019, federal outlays totaled $4.45 trillion, or 20.6% of gross domestic product. This year, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s January 2025 projection, total outlays will be $7.03 trillion, or 23.3% of GDP. That’s a 58% increase over six years.
There’s nothing now to justify this abnormal level of government spending. Pathetically, Congress is having a hard time agreeing on a reduction of even $1.5 trillion from that 10-year amount. That’s a 1.68% cut—a little more than a rounding error. My guess is that much of that minuscule decrease will be backloaded to the end of the 10 years for which Congress is now budgeting, increasing the probability those savings will never be realized.
Under every scenario now being considered, federal debt continues to skyrocket from its current level of almost $37 trillion. The CBO’s current projection adds around $22 trillion over the next 10 years, resulting in total debt of approximately $59 trillion—134% of GDP—in 2035. That projection assumes an automatic tax increase will occur in 2026 when provisions of the 2017 tax cuts expire, increasing revenue from 17.1% of GDP in fiscal 2025 to an average of 18.1% over the next 10 years. With the CBO projecting 10-year GDP at $373 trillion, that 1% increase represents $3.7 trillion of additional revenue and lower debt.
CBO Projections
Some friends take exceptions to CBO projections. So do I, but in the opposite direction.
Experience shows growth estimates are always too high and debt expands faster than projected.
This happens because no one ever projects recessions or government spending increases that inevitably happen in them.
Undoing the Work of DOGE?
For all Musk’s bluster DOGE did next to nothing.
Recall that Musk said he could cut $2 trillion. This is how things progressed.
December 27, 2024: Can DOGE Cut $2 Trillion Out of $1 Trillion? What About Revenue?
Given the obvious answer, on January 10, I commented Elon Musk Admits DOGE Can’t Find $2 Trillion In Budget Cuts
Anyone with an ounce of common sense knew that wasn’t possible. He won’t find $1 trillion either.
The latest DOGE claim is about $160 billion, of which DOGE only itemized $70billion.
And the analysis is riddled with massive errors, double-counting, and claims of savings on projects that had already been cancelled.
My guess is DOGE has saved $20 billion to $50 billion, with most of that one-time as opposed to recurring.
And that does not factor in rehiring of workers fired by mistake. For example, please recall DOGE Makes Huge Mistake Firing Nuclear Workers, Now Seeks to Rehire Them
Other alleged “savings” is subject to cancellation by the courts.
Related Posts
May 12, 2025: The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Will Continue Spending at Biden’s Level
The bill is certainly big, but it’s damn ugly.
May 20, 2025: Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” Would Increase the Deficit by $4.8 Trillion
Penn Wharton updated their budget analysis of the House bill as it now stands.
The key idea in all of this is federal debt continues to skyrocket from its current level of almost $37 trillion by another $22 trillion over the next 10 years.
That $22 trillion increase assumes expiring tax breaks and no recession. The CBO is optimistic.
On May 6, 2025, I commented Gold Soars to Another New High, What’s the Message?
There are three messages. Do you see them?
And on May 25, I commented What Should We Do to Get Government Spending Under Control?
That’s the question I was asked today. 12 Ideas.
Congress is spineless and so is Trump. Gold is acting accordingly.
Good suggestions from Mish. None of which will happen. Our democracy ensures we will keep kicking the can as long as possible. Which most of us already knew. Only the MAGA cult here thought that there would be significant spending cuts.
It doesn’t matter who is in charge. All any of us can do is take advantage of whatever opportunities they provide to grow our wealth. Because if we don’t do that, the result will be a decline in our wealth.
OT, but I wonder how many countries will send Trump their “best offer” today? If someone asks him, will he say “over 200”? Lol!
Meanwhile, Trump is still begging Xi to call. It’s been over a month and Xi is still playing it coy while Trump keeps looking desperate.
DOGE was only a political witch hunt and Musk should have known it would go nowhere because he can do rudimentary math.
To expect Trump to do anything to stop the spending would be unrealistic and he needs to feed his sycophants their share of the spoils.
I still think that Defense Spending should be separated from the calculation of GDP!
Because we are heading into a recession trump can paper over it by handing a trillion dollars to the defense department.
It is all smoke and mirrors with trump.
I commented along this same line in a past thread, it bears repeating. federal receipts as a percentage of revenue has been capped at about 20% since the end of WW2, while averaging around 17% irrespective of the of the tax policy; see the link for a graph:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFRGDA188S
This suggests we might tweak the deficit issue with taxes, but we will not solve the problem. The only way we will solve the ruinous deficit and debt problem is to cut spending. An example of this is severe recession after WW1 and the Spanish Flu pandemic that ended via federal spending cuts of about 20% to usher in the roaring 20’s. Another ongoing example is Argentina where drastic government spending cuts are leading to an astounding economic rebound and interestingly both examples took about a year and a half to get obvious results.
I agree with Musk that the Big Beautiful Bill is a major disappointment.
I think that most people are missing a fundamental point. This is what mass democracy will always bring in the long term, especially when you have the world’s reserve currency and can print money to monetize the debt. The problem of public sector spending growth afflicts every state, most counties and municipalities too. Show me a state, even with the balanced budget requirements, that has not grown spending grossly over the past decade. Even solidly R ones.
What? DOGE was nothing more than a circus performance! No way! I had it on good authority from the MAGA cult here that DOGE was making significant impact on government spending. Lol.
There’s a sucker born every minute. -PT Barnum.
The only shocker in any of this is that Musk expected Trump to do anything except enrich Trump.
Musk has mental challenges. He doesn’t see the world in its true light.
I told my wife that DOGE was theatrics and not serious. Trump never intended to cut the deficit; his interest is his costly agenda. Musk was played and he will end up hating Trump. I think musk was well intentioned, but Trump is a cynical manipulator.
The only reason Trump and the Republicans wanted to cut any government waste wasn’t to reduce the deficit but so they could justify locking in the otherwise expiring 2017 tax cuts while throwing in another tranche to boot.
Musk buying Twitter enabled Trump to win, it was the turning point that allowed the conservative voice and what I would label truth to be published for folks to discern publicly. He’s been forthright about his intent to save money and eliminate grift. You saw how the mainstream media, Democrats and the deep-in-the-grift Republican hold outs are treating him and his radical ideas now. Once the lovechild of the left they ripped off his arms and legs once he bought Twitter. Because he always had a public-consultant expiration date and was not given an official term-length post those holdouts just did what they always do–kick the can, wait it out. Once the smoke cleared they could go back to the grift enablement. It’s actually disgusting because it displays the character and cultural shift in American towards fiat evil that at this juncture seems impenetrable.
If they can wait out the richest man in the world and have the second or third richest man in the world owning the Washington Post willing to publish establishment continuance, if they can bury evidence, take shots at Presidental front-runners, get to prisoners in federal prisons and run roughshod over the powerless taxpayers to the tune of $37,000,000,000,000 what chance do we have barring a balanced-budget and term-limit amendment?
I’ve asked my Congressman prior to nearly every televised town hall when the Doge cuts will be codified and I’ve never received an answer. The depth of the fraud and grift is real.
Hopefully the Senate won’t pass the bill. There is NO reason for people who earn tips, overtime or SS to not have to pay income tax. Tax should be paid on ALL income – NO deductions.
Agreed. Most tipped people already underreport that income. Not taxing overtime would be a record-keeping logistical nightmare. In most states you just get OT for working > 40 hours a week. In California you get overtime for any time over 8 hours in a day. If you work four 9 hour shifts per week (36 hours) you’re paid OT on four hours (in CA). The software programming expense alone would be many billions. W2 forms wouldn’t just show your total taxable income in Box 1. They would need a separate box for OT. Sounds simple. It’s not.
Can’t we throw a new code in box 12d? A couple administrations back used it to keep track of “Cadillac” health plans. /s
Absolutely!! Including dividends, capital gains, ALL personal income should be taxed as normal payroll income.
I mean, the day trader should have the same taxes as the office worker next door.
The day trader already pays ordinary income tax on cap gains and dividends (held < 1 year).
If Ma and Pa happen to save enough (after putting Lil’ Suzie through school), then they should be able to drip invest into Chevron and the like and enjoy a slightly beneficial dividend/ LTCG rate.
If you mean couples making over $500k…well OK let’s roast them. /s
Seriously though, the SECURE act already fleece’s Ma & Pa of what they intended to pass to jr.
I can’t yet speak to the BBB, but I disagree on the rest.
-More folks rely on hospitality work these days for sole or supportive income. These aren’t rich cats.
-No tax on OT incentivizes folks who already work full time. This can help mitigate the loss of retiring workers. Generally, a couple can get behind one spouse working extra hours to say buy a home or help jr. with trade school or state university cost.
-Married folks are only taxed “up to” 85% on income over $44k. These folks aren’t gonna break the bank.
dodge is deception
I guess Elon Musk, like Thomas Massie, doesn’t understand how government works.
Left unsaid by Musk is that there are hundreds of billions of dollars of waste & fraud in HHS. If my mother in law is a typical chronic patient then there are millions of Americans receiving billions of dollars of unnecessary healthcare, because the individual refuses to change unhealthy habits.
Is there a fair way to regulate people’s personal habits without becoming Communist or a nanny state? For what solution are you advocating?
Why are taxpayers simultaneously paying for people to buy junk food and also paying for those people to be treated for obesity and type 2 diabetes?
This method is no different than government paying one company to dig holes and another company to fill in those holes!
Yeah, the snap benefits should only buy filet mignon and organic veggies, then the populace wouldn’t be chronically ill.
You don’t need some kind of special understanding to recognize we need huge cuts. You have to be pathologically stupid to not recognize that. Apply that to Trump as appropriate.
No one is going to touch the third rail. Politicians want to keep their seat. Any time a Republican even talks about the third rail, Democrats claim Republicans want to starve granny. More bread and circuses and funds for the Roman Army.
Debt creates the illusion of wealth. The stock market has elevated greatly on that illusion. 22 Trillion of government debt in 10 years creates quite an illusion. The reality in L.A. is that the city council just raised the minimum wage for hotel workers to $30 an hour over the next few years. Orange and San Diego Counties are designating income beneath $100,000 a year, as low income.
Agreed. And the reality in CA is that they’re in the hole to the tune of $10-20B a year for the foreseeable future.
Sounds a lot like Uncle Sam’s problem.
But if Musk was a politician, I think he’d be like Massie in terms of fiscal restraint.
I can believe that.
My nephew lives in Long Beach – his apartment rent is eye-popping.
Some of that too was government shadow- spending: the Fed enlarging money supply and credit. So when the political branches wouldn’t cough up enough, there were other means. That pumped up prices, especially asset prices. That raised my net worth but not fairly, IMO.
Why do all of these politicians need “cover” from Elon Musk? They (on both sides) should do the right thing and reduce some spending and raise some taxes, until the deficit and debt get under control. Buy why don’t they? Because it would be “hard”. “Hard” on those that rely on the benefits, and hard on those that profit from government largess. And, if things are “hard”, then the politicians might not get re-elected.
We never needed DOGE to do this work, we need politicians to do the work, and we are finding out that they are incapable. That is why ALL of them should be voted out by the public. Not just the R’s, Not just the D’s, but, all of them! And the public should elect people that can work together, compromise, and do what is right, instead of electing partisan dickheads who do nothing but blame the other side
They shouldn’t need cover but all but a few are wimps
The whole reason they are voted in is *because* they keep the gravy train rolling for a large swath of the population (the poor, the elderly, military/government union workers etc). Those are the people who continue to vote for the status quo which is endless deficits to continue to pay for their gravy train.
You think that the poor, elderly, government workers, union workers keep them voted in? Because it benefits them? I would argue that they are kept in by monied interests (ie corporations and the rich), for the very reasons you state. i think its the lower half of society that needs to rise up and vote in honest politicians.
The most clever companies figured out how to create a pipeline through those constituents straight to their pockets. My mom had a chest pain and they had her a weekend in hospital. They charged like $20,000+ to tell her there was essentially nothing much wrong. Likewise Halliburton’s no-bid contracts in Iraq. All this drives the spiral.
How can monied interests vote them in when there are so few of them. No, what monied interests do is BUY them once they are in so they can get favorable contracts, tax breaks etc.
The poor definitely benefit because they pay zero taxes (well sales, but not income) yet they get welfare and loads of other goodies given to the poor. Same goes with the elderly (SS, Medicaid etc). Union people get guaranteed pensions (ie don’t need to worry about stocks or bonds) for life. So yeah, all those people benefit HUGELY and so of course they vote to keep the status quo (if you are old enough to get AARP you’ll see they tell you which candidates to vote for in order to keep SS/Medicaid flowing and who to avoid voting for).
The bag holders are the lower class and middle class workers (not business owners). In other words the tax donkeys whose work and taxes pay for everything. We are the people on this blog site looking for and trying to vote for change but you should realize there aren’t enough of us now to tip the voting in any meaningful manner.
Can’t really argue Musk’s point.
My guess what’s happening in Washington: Trump did come in with intentions of massive cuts. Then senators started telling him what will happen in all those districts with the massive cuts, and Trump’s fragile ego got scared. So he’s backing off.
The debt crisis remains. I’ve lost faith that anyone or thing can handle it, and it’s the massive federal bureaucracy that the founding fathers warned of. Too much dependence, not enough independence.
Reputable economists and historians all agree, that there is eventually no good way out of this. Tale as old as time, Greece, Rome etc. there are only 4 ways out.
1- inflation (Weimar republic worst example)
2- confiscate wealth, a slow death that drives investment to other countries
3- cancel the debt. Not good. Period.
4- WW3 restructuring the global order. Also very not good.
I’ll throw in an option 5: make the massive cuts. Doesn’t matter if it’s SS, DoD, energy, no holds barred. Make the decision purely by mathematics and deal with the horrific fallout.
I think the key is to make the cuts, but, slowly, and orderly. I always say, in the most simple terms, they should cut spending by 1 percent per year, and raise revenue (taxes of some form or another) by 1 percent a year. Every year, until the situation is under control. Maybe it takes 10 years, maybe more, but, in such a scenario, everyone (businesses, the “people”, even government itself) could plan and foresee the future to some extent and make the best of this bad situation. But, it would actually stabilize the system and get us to where we need to be, over time.
Option 5 will immediately trigger option 4 (maybe not WW3 with other countries but would absolutely spark a civil war between have’s and have not’s which would amount to the same thing).
The only other option I can see is a massive die off from a pandemic type event that killed a large amount of the population (talking Spanish Flu type thing with 30-40% die off). Especially if it was the elderly because that’s who most of the money is owed to and their death would in essence cancel out the debt (ie no need to pay back dead people).
LOL Trump may have come in with the intent to save money, but the guy is an expert at bankrupting casinos, so we knew how that would go.
Plus, TACO “Trump Always Chickens Out”
The problem with Sen. Johnson is he bitches about spending, but in the end he always votes to pass whatever piece of legistration the R’s are voting on! He is not the only one either! Outside of Massie in the House and Paul in the Senate, there is not any Republican willing to actually stand on principal ! Trump is a chump the way he goes after Massie, just a complete idiot!
There are always just enough republicans to pass the monstrosity du jour. Its all theater but I do think Massie is sincere.
They always all cave in. They have one designated “no” vote for appearances.
DOGE proposes. Congress disposes. Not much else to say.
And Trump spends like a drunk who knows the earth is being hit by a meteor tomorrow so it doesn’t matter. When you are about 80 years old that does kind of sum up your personal reality fairly accurately
If you had kids you would know that is not true but I guess you don’t have kids.
In this specific situation, I doubt many would disagree with him.