I am pleased to report a month-over-month home price decline. But don’t get too excited. 
Case-Shiller Chart Notes
- CS National: Case Shiller National Home Price Index
- 10-City: Case Shiller 10-City Home Price Index
- CPI: Consumer Price Index
- OER: Owners’ Equivalent Rent, the price one would pay to rent their own home unfurnished without utilities
All of the above are seasonally adjusted.
Case Shiller March Report
Please note Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Gain in March 2026
- The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 0.7% annual gain for March 2026, down from a 0.8% rise in the previous month.
- More than half of major U.S. metropolitan markets posted year-over-year price declines in March, with Seattle (-2.5%) displacing Denver as the weakest market and Chicago (6.1%) remaining the strongest.
- For the 10th consecutive month, inflation outpaced national home price appreciation, with March CPI running 2.6 percentage points above the 0.7% annual gain, extending the streak of negative real home price returns.
“More than half of the 20 major U.S. housing markets recorded year-over-year price declines in March, reflecting a broadening and deepening housing slowdown,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index edged up just 0.7% in March from a year earlier, decelerating from February’s 0.8% rate. With consumer inflation accelerating to roughly 3.3% in March, U.S. home values have now fallen in real terms for the 10th consecutive month, underscoring an ongoing erosion of inflation-adjusted housing wealth.
“The geographic divergence remains stark,” Godec continued. “Midwest and Northeast markets are sustaining modest growth, while much of the Sun Belt and Western regions are still seeing declines. Chicago led all cities with a 6.1% annual gain, followed by New York (4.0%) and Cleveland (3.0%). In contrast, Seattle’s 2.5% year-over-year decline was the steepest in March, with Denver (-2.0%), Tampa (-1.9%), Dallas (-1.7%), and Phoenix (-1.6%) joining Seattle among the weakest performers. Even Los Angeles (-1.6%) and Washington (-0.1%) turned negative. The spread between the strongest and weakest markets – 8.6 percentage points, from Chicago’s +6.1% to Seattle’s -2.5% – highlights how localized this housing cycle has become.
“Monthly price movements offered a seasonal spring lift but little underlying momentum. Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index climbed 0.7% from February, and even double-digit composite markets like the 10-City and 20-City posted strong March gains (1.2% and 1.0% NSA, respectively). Yet after seasonal adjustment, the National and 20-City indices both slipped 0.2%, and the 10-City ticked down 0.03%, confirming that demand remains soft as we head into spring. The latest six months saw only a negligible 0.3% rise in national home prices, barely keeping pace with the 0.3% in the prior half-year – a sign of a housing market nearly at a standstill.
Case-Shiller National, Top 10 Metro, Percent Change From Month Ago
Case-Shiller Home Prices Percent Change Year-Over-Year
Slowdown in Perspective
The above chart and the lead chart put the slowdown into proper perspective.
A 50 percent decline in home prices is needed before we can talk about affordability.
Between 1988 and 2000, home prices rose in sync with rent, OER, and the CPI. A huge series of Fed mistakes, first by Bernanke, then repeated by Powell led to home prices soaring wildly.
Interest Rates vs Case-Shiller National Home Price Index
In response to the dotcom bubble recession and then again in 2020, the Fed slashed interest rates to ridiculously low levels.
I calculate real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates two ways, first against the CPI, and second substituting home prices for OER in the CPI.
In the dot-com bubble real interest rates were negative 4.2 percent. The Fed repeated this error, and then some in 2020 with real interest rates of -9.76 percent by my measure and -7.46 percent straight up.
Now, the housing market is fully broken with few willing to trade a 3 percent mortgage for a 6 percent mortgage.
The Fed has never admitted either error. And consumers are increasingly in trouble with the inflation that the Fed and Congress cooperated to create, the Fed by policy and Congress by spending.
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Case Shiller has nothing to do with homebuilders. Nor should it.
Case Shiller measures repeat sales of the same house over time.
Otherwise you are comparing prices of varying lot sizes, locations, amenities, features and even rooms. CS is the gold standard, but as I said, it lags.
CS current month is March. It’s now May, heading into June. March represents sales in January-February-March. Add that all up and you are realistically looking at prices 5 months ago.
But there is nothing better than repeat sales of the EXACT same house over time to know what prices are doing.
I just saw a Naples, FL condo go for $1.3 million that they paid $2.0 for 18 months ago and a Naples, FL home on the water go for $3.2 million that was originally listed for $6.5 million two years ago.
Profound losses in the coastal Florida markets related to soaring tax and insurance costs.
The amazing thing is that the areas of the country that were still seeing hefty price increases over the last year (Connecticut and Wisconsin for example) have entered panic blow off top mode with the sudden increase in mortgage rates.
Those who are planning to buy soon feel like now is their last best chance to grab something, even if they have to pay a crazy high price in a bidding war. It’s insane.
How insane? https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/West-Hartford_CT_06107_M31576-55517
Look at the property taxes on that beauty and look at the description:
“IMPORTANT: This property is occupied and cannot be shown, do not make any attempts to go on the property – view from the street only. ALL OFFERS must be CASH ONLY. There is NO FINANCING, AS IS, NO INSPECTIONS. Do not step on the property or communicate with the occupants.”
Amazingly, they just dropped the price by $10,000. A sign the CT bubble is over? Perhaps.
And then there are condo’s:
Trump’s fault! House prices are only supposed to increase!
I gave you a thumbs up for that. Home values and “affordability” are like a seesaw. If one goes up, the other goes down.
OT but Paxton beat Cornyn in Texas. Let the games begin!
The fumblementalist Christians will be out in war parties. It’s going to set records for viciousness.
Won’t Christians be focused on Pope Leo’s call for a new Crusade against AI?
One can always find some opinion that one likes. I’m waiting for an encyclical called “Desine Liberos Mutilare”.
The Case-Schiller chart is like a year behind reality in my view, maybe more. Very dumb methodology, so dumb it seems purposeful.
Best methodology there is. Very accurate, but lagging ~5 months.
I don’t know MISH, who am I to disagree but it seems like it doesn’t capture what the homebuilders are “doing to the market”, nor the massive concessions/upgrades (which are effectively real price declines), and not the interest rate buy downs either (more de facto price cuts). In other words, to me it misses reality by a lot, until it’s so late to the party it doesn’t really matter.
New houses are almost a separate category. The vast majority are spec houses, cheaply built on tiny lots in less desirable locations, burdened with an HOA, mello roos and other nonsense.
This has nothing to do with homebuilders. Nor should it.
Case Shiller measures repeat sales of the same house over time.
Otherwise you are comparing prices of varying lot sizes, locations, amenities, features and even rooms. CS is the gold standard, but as I said, it lags.
CS current month is March. It’s now May, heading into June. March represents sales in January-February-March. Add that all up and you are realistically looking at prices 5 months ago. But there is nothing better than repeat sales of the EXACT same house over time to know what prices are doing.
What is that with the fifty year mortgage?
I’ve been waiting for years to buy more rental properties but the insurance, maintenance and property taxes are so out of whack that it only makes sense in very few markets. I’m better off buying bonds or TLT, sell calls on it and make 10 to 12% than buy a rental property and deal with all the headaches.
At this point, you can’t count on the appreciation because even if homes do appreciate, so do insurance, property taxes and maintenance. It’s a vicious cycle.
Better off getting rich trading paper.
And then you got to worry about one more thing…
Do worry, Trump & Walrus will find a way to make things even worse.™
The economic trends under taco have become increasingly “consistent.”
Round and round the bowl we swirl.