Don’t Miss a Post. Subscribe now.

New Home Sales Decline in February and That’s Before Huge Mortgage Rate Hikes

New Home Sales data from Census Department, chart by Mish

Key New Home Sales Points

  • New Home Sales Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 772,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
  • This is 2.0 percent below the revised January rate of 788,000 and is 6.2 percent  below the February 2021 estimate of 823,000. 
  • The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2022 was $400,600. The average sales price was $511,000. 
  • The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 407,000. This represents a supply of 6.3 months at the current sales rate.  

To put the annualized sales in perspective, the actual  number of homes sold in February was 65,000.

New Home For Sale by Stage of Construction

New Home For Sale data from Census Department, chart by Mish

Month’s Supply of New Homes For Sale 

New Home Supply data from Census Department, chart by Mish

The supply of new homes for sales is calculated by dividing the total number of homes for sale over the number of homes sold in one month.

The supply is overstated. 105,000 homes have not been started and only 37,000 are completed. 

Builder Speculation

There are 259,000 homes under construction that have not been purchased. 

This is a high number historically and it is at a time of rapidly rising mortgage rates with sales declining.

Existing Home Sales Dive 7.2 Percent Wiping Out January’s Big Month

Also note Existing Home Sales Dive 7.2 Percent Wiping Out January’s Big Month

Mortgage rates are up, sales are down big. Get used to this story.

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

Thanks for Tuning In!

Please Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

If you have subscribed and do not get email alerts, please check your spam folder.

Mish

Subscribe to MishTalk Email Alerts.

Subscribers get an email alert of each post as they happen. Read the ones you like and you can unsubscribe at any time.

This post originated on MishTalk.Com

Thanks for Tuning In!

Mish

Comments to this post are now closed.

13 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
4 years ago
The only nugget of information I could see from the chart of sold houses was COVID brought 200000 sales forward. That’s 25-30% of the trajectory of the moving average of annual sales.
Christoball
Christoball
4 years ago
Reply to  Six000mileyear
Forward moving sales at inflated prices spell disaster for price stability.
shamrock
shamrock
4 years ago
Weird that new homes sales seem to be doing poorly while existing homes are still hitting it out of the park. Existing homes months supply is 1.7 and record breaking numbers of buyers paying over asking.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Reply to  shamrock
“existing homes are still hitting it out of the park.”
Really?
A LOT of lipstick in that article.
Horse’s Mouth:
In February, existing-home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.02 million. Sales were down 7.2% from the prior month and 2.4% from one year ago.
Existing-Home Sales Fade 7.2% in February (nar.realtor)
shamrock
shamrock
4 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
There’s always a glass half empty perspective.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Census Bureau Household Pulse latest … survey conducted March 2nd – March 14th.
Prior survey conducted between January 26th – February 7th
On question of paying household expenses prior 7 days. Numbers are millions (18 and over)
A little difficult … 56.5 –> 60.9
Somewhat difficult … 41.1 –> 45.3
Very difficult … 31.6 –> 31.9
A lot of questions … with answers trending in wrong direction
Household Pulse Survey Data Tables (census.gov)
KidHorn
KidHorn
4 years ago
No more stimulus and rising interest rates. Who would have thought that would cause a drag on housing?
I was looking at vacation homes near me a couple of years ago. Decided it’s better to rent than own. Looked again today. Hardly anything for sale. And the deals are terrible compared to 2 years ago. Some people are really going to regret buying these. Vacation homes are usually the first casualty when housing goes south.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Yes. When lock downs hit 2 years ago the top 10%ers went to Crazy Town buying vacation homes / RVs with nary of due diligence.
Both will be “on sale” in not too distant future.
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
How much “on sale?” 2015 prices? 2005? 1995? 1985? I’m pretty sure they won’t reach “affordable for returning Iraq vets in San Francisco” levels….. Much less pre-Fed levels.
I may be above average predisposed to view the world in logarithmic terms (change of less than an order of magnitude really aren’t all that exciting), but considering how insanely out of touch housing prices have been artificially pumped up over the past half century of unlimited debasement theft and little else: Any correction will have to be rather massive before it “changes the game,” hence changes economic behavior and outcomes, to any meaningful extent. Even a 50% drop, will still leave virtually all the pathologies alive and just waiting to rebound after short blip while The Fed and ruing cliques reload and sink even lower.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
4 years ago
Reply to  StukiMoi
Definitely not 1985 or 1995 levels etc. Too much fiat money has been created to return to those levels.
The problem with “affordable for returning Iraq vets in San Francisco” is that before homes reach that price, everyone else who has more money AND wants a home (or 2nd home) is going to get to buy cheaper homes before that ‘Iraq vet’ gets to buy one. So the real question is, where in line is that vet in terms of how many want a home at a cheaper price than currently exists. If there is a lot of such people then it’s doubtful it will decline to that level in San Fran (hence the Vet may have to consider the East Bay area).
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
4 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
“Too much fiat money has been created to return to those levels.”
Aren’t The Fed claiming to be fighting exactly such inflation now? Or is that, surprise surprise, just another lie?
People with more money than returning GIs, were ahead of the GIs in line for SF houses post WW2 as well. Which was easily solved by simply building more houses. Then they all could buy one. 150-250sqft of covered space, is an awful lot less expensive to slap together, than what a young, returning Vet can expect earn over some years in a vibrant economy. Hence, obviously, then as now, there was/is enough effective demand to ensure suppliers would increase supply to meet it. Of course, I am assuming a market economy. When and where there exists no market at all, shortages and needless suffering and inefficiency/poverty will always be common……
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
4 years ago
Why bother with a mortgage? … the “let them eat lentils” crowd will probably lecture us to just pay cash …

WASHINGTON, D.C. (March 23, 2022)Mortgage applications decreased 8.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 18, 2022.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 14 percent from the previous week and was 54 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Greenmountain
Greenmountain
4 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
Although for those us with mortgages I can attest it is not for a lack of trying. My phone has been ringing off the hook for last 6 weeks trying to get me to refinance or do anything that would suggest a new mortgage application. Feels like 2006 – same kind of phone calls.

Decorate Your Walls with Mish Fine Art Images

Click each image to view details or purchase in the store.

Stay Informed

Subscribe to MishTalk

You will receive all messages from this feed and they will be delivered by email.