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What to Expect When Politicians Try to Pick Technology Winners Part 1

When Politicians Pick Winners

Eurointelligence has a warning that also applies to President Biden on what happens  When Europeans Pick Winners, emphasis mine.

The geezers amongst us will recall that Helmut Kohl and Francois Mitterrand had a pet project, besides the bigger political achievements they are both remembered for. This was high-definition television, a project they jointly pushed for in the late 1980s and early 1990s. They wanted consumers to have tangible benefits from the then-new single market. We see parallels to today’s debate about technological neutrality in green policies in Europe. Back then, the Europeans, together with the Japanese, bet on the wrong technology. Their version of HDTV would have been the last hoorah of the analogue television age. Mercifully, that project died a quiet death. 

HDTV is a cautionary tale for politicians who think they understand technology. At the time, the Europeans were still overawed by their own success in creating Airbus as a viable competitor to Boeing. But Airbus turned out to be the exception, not the rule. There has never been anything like it since.

The prevailing future technology for home central heating systems, or that of motor cars, is sufficiently unknown at this point to make any firm predictions. There are car makers, like BMW, which have bet on hydrogen. Others, like VW, see the future as all electric. The controversial German domestic heating legislation is technologically neutral in theory, but tweaked in such a way that only heating pumps fulfil the criteria. Our European record of spotting technological winners is not great. Airbus succeeded because it broke a monopoly. It was a mature technology. Europeans had the engineering know-how. That is not the case here. We are dealing with technologies that have yet to be developed. Would we still want to plaster a large portion of our countryside with windmills, 2% in the case of Germany, if there is a breakthrough in the development of nuclear fusion reactors?

We also have our doubts about Horizon, the EU’s research programme. It is the world’s largest transnational research programme, and yet the EU is a technological laggard in an increasing number of 21st century technologies. It has elements of a pork barrel project for academics. 

Pork Barrel Projects for Academics 

That is what it all boils down to. We have government-sponsored climate change solutions in the US and EU where the mandates greatly exceed the available technologies. 

Nonetheless we are marching forward, demanding more from technologies than they can possibly deliver. 

One not so humorous result is dirty dishes in the US because the dishwashers don’t work. And who doesn’t routinely flush the toilet twice because of water restrictions that are not even necessary in most of the country? 

Despite the obvious failures, Biden marches on. The EU, fortunately, is having second thoughts.

Germany is Turning Against the EU’s Green New Deal, Common Sense to the Forefront

Fresh on the heels of a sensible request by France to pause new green regulations comes an even stronger pushback in Germany.

For discussion, please see Germany is Turning Against the EU’s Green New Deal, Common Sense to the Forefront

A Big Green Mess in Germany With Coal a Stunning 31 Percent of Electricity

Also recall my January 21 post A Big Green Mess in Germany With Coal a Stunning 31 Percent of Electricity.

The absurd effort to get off natural gas immediately in Germany led to a stunning revival of coal. How stupid is that? 

It remains to be seen if EU nannycrats can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by ignoring the pushbacks against green energy mandates in Germany and the Netherlands. 

But in the US, it is 100% full steam ahead by the Biden administration. 

I will have more on the economic and environmental damage with one such push by the admiration tomorrow, but here are some things I have covered already.

Biden’s Dirty Dish Deal

Will dishwashers in the US even work? That seemingly silly question is anything but silly.

Please consider the The Federal Dirty Dish Rule

Last week the Energy Department dropped a sweeping proposal for “efficiency” mandates on dishwashers. Did you enjoy last night’s spaghetti, still crusted on the plate? Now you can taste it twice.

The proposal requires manufacturers to slash water use by a third, limiting machines to 3.2 gallons per cycle, down from the current federal limit of five gallons. New appliances must simultaneously cut estimated annual energy usage by nearly 30%.

Machines can only meet much higher efficiency standards by recirculating water in longer cycles, meaning run times of two or three hours. Yet if the dishes aren’t clean, owners run them again, undermining the argument about conservation.

The Energy Department plan gives manufacturers only until 2027 to produce the miracle of costlier washers that do a worse job. There are also new regulations for electric motors used in manufacturing, as well as beverage vending machines.

In recent months the Energy Department has proposed or finalized punishing new standards for ovens, microwaves, refrigerators and laundry machines (get ready for even moldier clothing). These come on top of rules for furnaces, air conditioners, and lightbulbs. 

Pay More For Less Performance

Everything Biden does adds inflation pressures.

Note The Inflation Reduction Act Price Jumps From $385 Billion to Over $1 Trillion

Expect more of the same when Biden tries to impose a “just transition” to EVs.

And if you missed it, please see Hoot of the Day: The UAW Demands a “Just Transition” to Electric Vehicles

Setting goals too high while simultaneously picking winners is a road to ruin. But that is the current inflationary path. 

The sooner a green backlash starts in the US the better. But the damage is mounting. More coming up. 

This post originated on MishTalk.Com.

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44 Comments
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Counter
Counter
3 years ago
3tb disc drives are $100 more than 4 years ago
oee
oee
3 years ago
We had the following: 1) Nuclear Power-The US govt invested 25 % of the GDP of the econ in WWII to develop nuclear bombs-Now we have nuclear power plants 2) nuclear medicine
The German govt -developed Rockets i e the V -2 rockets. The US stole the tech which led to the US sending 12 men to the moon =which led to the computer revolution- NASA and the Dept of Defense needed guidence systems so the US govt bought the out put from Intel to have “mini computers” guiding the rockets- which led to the mini computer.
The internet-developed by DARPA; self-driving cars- Developed by DARPA.
I think modern life would not be same if the the US picked winners.
Also, I forgot the jet engine which was developed by the NAZIS. The US stole the tech and now we have…jet travel. Now jets could travel higher and avoid the weather and more people flew as a result.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  oee
Obvious implication: we need more wars if we want progress.
WTF?
oee
oee
3 years ago
Reply to  Lisa_Hooker
That is the way of the world. I failed to mention the following: Radar-developed to detect German aircraft over the UK; penicillin developed to fight infections in soldiers; blood tranfusions to help…soldiers survive.
Also, the interate hyway system develped to allow airplains to land in the them ; also, the creattion of ring roads to allow the encirlbment of cities when the militiary needed it.
ColoradoAccountant
ColoradoAccountant
3 years ago
All the water on the planet is from meteor strikes. All the water on the planet still exists. Fracking reduces surface water by injecting it into hard rock. What they never show you on the International Space Station is that 50,000 gallon water tanker shot off from Florida so our astronauts can piss out the port holes into space, NOT.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
The water came from comets.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
The water came from all the hydrogen burning vehicles in Atlantis.
PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Mish. Why are you complaining about Govt attempting to Pick winners? Isn’t that what EVERYONE is always trying to do? Including governments.
For example, a car company has to PICK whether to produce a car, a truck or an SUV; choose ICE, EV, hybrid, plug in hybrid, diesel, hydrogen, nat gas etc; choose level of driver assist systems; etc etc etc. When they pick winners, they profit. But no one picks winners all the time. Thats why companies sometimes fail.
The same goes for all other companies, and all manner of institutions, including governments.
And lets face it; the US government, no matter how you feel about it, has made a lot of right choices over the years, in order to end up with the most innovative economy in the world. Which has resulted in the US leading the world in space exploration and discovery, computers, the internet, smartphones, entertainment, AI, etc etc etc
Similarly, investors are always trying to pick winners as well.
That’s simply how life works. No point complaining about it.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
He’s complaining because private companies and consumers are supposed to pick winners based on the most cost effective solution.
When the government tries to pick winners it’s via some ulterior mandate (lobbyists, greens etc) and virtually never in best interests of businesses and consumers. The government should stick to enforcing the laws that govern the interactions between companies and consumers and otherwise mostly get the hell out of the way.
PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Then he is wasting his time. And so are you. Because they aren’t going to stop trying to pick winners. No government will. Get over it. Or better yet, run for president and fix everything. But you won’t, because you know that you wouldn’t be able to change it even if you became president. So you will just keep complaining; endlessly and uselessly. Over and over and over for the rest of your life. A lot of bitching and complaining with nothing to show for it. Brilliant.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  PapaDave
By that logic if no body pointed out things that were wrong over and over again then we might still have slavery in this country because it would have been useless to complain and bitch about it.
It’s a normal human condition to bitch and complain. EVERYONE does it about *something* even if there is not much if any chance of it changing. The problem is when you spend ALL your time doing it and doing nothing productive. I don’t think that’s the case for Mish and I know it’s not the case for me.
PapaDave
PapaDave
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
“The problem is when you spend ALL your time doing it and doing nothing productive. I don’t think that’s the case for Mish and I know it’s not the case for me.”
Denying the facts does not change the facts.
That’s why I come here less and less. Too much bitching and complaining. Too little information that I can make use of.
vanderlyn
vanderlyn
3 years ago
i’m agnostic on energy. i’d like to see what would happen if all the credits and support for farmers and oil and gas went to totally free market. same with solar and wind…………….
and ranching and mining on public land for below market rates………..i’d personally propose selling off most of public land and maybe even offering free homesteading………..like 1800s.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Low flow toilets are especially annoying because you use those multiple times a day. I remember as a kid when you took a deuce, it flushed down nicely. Now not only do you need to flush twice, but you also need a toilet brush to wipe away the skid marks because the water level is so low. Skid marks weren’t even a term anyone knew or had to deal with when I was a kid.
I also bet at least 10% of all toilets and sinks leak water 24×7 due to worn out stoppers / washers and leak more in a day that could ever be saved by low flow. That’s the problem that really needs to be fixed which makes it so maddening.
shamrock
shamrock
3 years ago
water restrictions that are not even necessary in most of the country?
Exactly.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
BMW is not pushing hydrogen. Only the Japanese are. BMW has many mass production EVs and no mass production hydrogen cars. The Japanese are doing it because they’ve lost the EV race to China. Japanese car sales are cratering. China is now the worlds biggest car exporter and the gap is going to grow a lot over the coming years. Mostly because of EV exports. Japan is desperate to stop the bleeding. in the US there are over 50,000 public charging stations. How many hydrogen stations are there?
In China, the worlds largest car market, pretty soon it will be almost impossible to register an ICE vehicle.
It’s over. EVs are going to be the future.
Most of the arguments against EVs emanate from either the oil and gas industry or car companies that are way behind. They last longer. They cost a lot less to operate. They perform better. And they cost less to produce. GM and Ford just haven’t figured out how companies like Tesla and BYD build them. You can add 200 miles of range in 15 minutes with the new fast chargers. And the charging speed is only going to get faster.
Solar power costs less than burning fossil fuels on average now. And the gap is only going to grow. Fossil fuel power plants are not going to be built going forward. Solar power and batteries are the future. Maybe not everywhere, but almost everywhere.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
As you well know, EV’s are already here, they aren’t the future.
But the unknown question is going to be market penetration. None of us knows exactly where it will end up because we can’t yet be 100% certain that battery range, charging speeds and the grid itself will all reach acceptable levels for public confidence. It will only take 1 huge hurricane (or other big disaster like black outs due to over load in California ) stranding tens or hundreds of thousands of EV’s for the public to back way off EV’s in the same way 3 mile island effectively ended nuclear power penetration in the US.
My personal guess is EV’s will hit somewhere around 50-60% with the remaining 40-50% staying on some combination of gas/diesel/hydrogen for due to the need to haul loads or function in adverse cold weather etc.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
If you have a barrel of diesel, it will still be a barrel of diesel in ten years.
If you have Panasonic Eneloop batteries, they will keep 70% of charge for 10 years…or until your memory lasts.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Not quite.
Diesel, like gasoline is constantly degrading. If you come back to your barrel in 10 years it’s unlikely to work anywhere close to what it would have 10 years ago. Plus there will be some evaporation etc.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Not quite.
Diesel like Gasoline is constantly degrading. If you come back to your barrel in 10 years it won’t be anywhere close to the same energy it was 10 years prior. Plus there is potential for evaporation etc.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Every time a major hurricane inflicts major damage on an area, people can’t pump gas either.
Over time as EVs are adopted, gas stations will disappear and with less gas refined, the price will go way up. And car makers will switch all production to EV. They’ll stop making gas vehicles.
This same thing has happened many times in the past. DVD replaced VHS. Cars replaced horses. Flat panel TVs replaced CRTs. In every instance, the old inferior technology disappeared quickly.
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Every time a major hurricane inflicts major damage the gasoline stations start up their gas-powered generators and pump gas.
The problem is losing communications for credit cards which is why cash remains king for refueling.
Over time liberals will be restricted to driving their ever-shrinking EVs round-and-round in the cities.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
But it’s not clear yet that EV’s are a superior technology. They’ve been around for over 100 years (electric cars were made in the 19th century as I am sure you know) and are only now making market penetration because oil is running out and governments are mandating it, not because they are better.
It’s entirely possible for both technologies to run side by side for decades to come if government mandates don’t interfere with ICE vehicles being made and then consumers can pick which ever they prefer based on their needs. That’s how things are supposed to work.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  TexasTim65
Most people aren’t buying EVs because of government mandates. The model Y is going to be the best selling car in the world this year. Passing the corolla. It’s not cheap even with incentives and everyone has the option of buying a gas vehicle.
Siliconguy
Siliconguy
3 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
“You can add 200 miles of range in 15 minutes with the new fast chargers.”
Not a good argument when I can add 400 miles of range in five minutes now on my truck. Also you might want to acquaint yourself with a formula; P=I^2R. There is a definite limit to how fast you can put current into a car and not melt the wiring.
As for electric cars lasting longer, that is nowhere near proven. Cars from the 1960s still run if rust hasn’t killed them. Power electronics fail all the time, they are not immortal. And the batteries degrade steadily. The first generation of Nissan Leafs are junk due to battery failure, we’ll have wait to see in the second generation does better.
And the northern winters are still an EV range killer.
KidHorn
KidHorn
3 years ago
Reply to  Siliconguy
Most cars will charge overnight, so charging speed isn’t an issue. I doubt EV charging will ever match gas tank filling speed, but it’s not nearly as inconvenient as many claim. On long drives, you have to take a 15 minute break every 3-4 hours instead of a 5 minute break. Not a huge inconvenience IMO.
I don’t think wire heating is what limits EV charging speed. I think it’s battery damage. There are batteries under development that charge a lot faster than current batteries.
It’s true EV range suffers in cold, but I’ve seen videos of people running their own tests and the drop off is about 20% between driving in the teens and driving in the 80s. Gas cars also have lower range in the cold. Most of the drop off for EVs is heating the cabin, something you get for free with gas cars, so if you can put up with being cold, the range doesn’t suffer much.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
It’s always funny and tragic when a government, especially European and above all French, screws up in a big way for all to see. In France in the early 1960’s the US embargoed IBM computers to France because Congress was pissed off at them for some reason. France then decided to build there own and after three decades of effort and money had to call it quits. There are others where France was ahead in a way. The Minitel was an early version of the internet in the early 1980’s. I used it and thought it was really neat. Then the real internet came in and blew it away. There were successes however. France passed a contract with Westinghouse to build the nuclear reactors and it worked very well and continued to do so even when the government in a fit of green pulled money out and let it degrade. Airbus is a good example but it is not the only one. Generally anything that touches defense and aerospace are full of successful joint ventures between government and the private sector. Adrian the French space launch company was doing reasonably well until recently when SpaceX blew the whole sector out of the water. Now every country that launches will have to put a lot of cash down to develop their own reusable launchers or close up shop. Funny enough the company that makes the most money for France did it without being chosen by the government and that is LVMH, the luxury goods maker whose goods are lusted after by the world’s wealthy and not so wealthy. Arnaud ended up being the richest man in the world without government help.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
3 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
Ariane was renamed Adrian?
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Did I write that? Shame on me. I can never forgive myself. Thanks for pointing it out.
JRH
JRH
3 years ago
As one with 3/4 of a century of experience from the other
side of the pond I watch what is happening to your country
with disdain.
The UK is behind you in the sense that their is no difference
in voting blue or red , gerontocracy prevails for your country
and our choice in the UK is one of all colours melding into
an indigo blue of unfathomable mediocrity.
Nobody must question anything and accept TPTB views of
everything, what happens when personal opinions based
on logic are considered pointless?
Avery
Avery
3 years ago
What to Expect When Technology Winners Try To Pick Politicians?
On display yesterday in Florida.
MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 years ago
Reply to  Avery
I loved that “dumb and dumber” bit by musk and desantis.
MPO45v2
MPO45v2
3 years ago
These anti-government posts are always a hoot and it begs a question. If the government is always picking losers, the wrong policies, and the wrong paths then why does government just get bigger and bigger and bigger? It doesn’t matter which party is in office, government always gets bigger and there is more spending and more government.
Perhaps it happens because while the free market provides cool products like iphones and netflix it does nothing to solve the endless trashing of the planet on every continent and across every ocean.
If you’re driving down the highway and you see 5 cars in front of you all tossing trash onto the freeway you’d probably be outraged and want something done about it but that is exactly what every person in an ICE car does on a daily drive by emitting CO2 and other toxins into the atmosphere. Curiously the free market doesn’t have a plan for the growing CO2 problem on the planet and that’s just one example.
And don’t get me on plastics and the Texas sized patch of plastic junk floating in the pacific ocean, when is the free market going to fix that?
It’s clear that neither big government nor the free market is the answer, I don’t know what is so I’m just going to enjoy myself like all the other selfish people on the planet until mother nature decides enough is enough.
TexasTim65
TexasTim65
3 years ago
Reply to  MPO45v2
How do you expect technology to solve the problem of trashing the planet when the problem is directly related to an ever increasing population which requires ever increasing amounts of finite resources? Infinite growth against finite resources is mathematically impossible. Thus the planet gets trashed.
Ironically, the faster the planet gets trashed, the sooner the problem gets solved via a mass extinction event when:
A) Resources are all consumed.
B) War happens on a global scale when resources become very scarce.
C) Disease/famine happens when resources become very scarce.
One of those 3 things will happen, the only question is when.
Matt3
Matt3
3 years ago
And the above is why I think we are entering a long period of stagflation.
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
3 years ago
“But Airbus turned out to be the exception, not the rule. There has never been anything like it since.”
Airbus, flush with government subsidies, decided to scale up and create A380, the biggest albatross ever when Boeing was scaling down with Dreamliner. Airports had to be modified to accommodate it, but that didn’t deter the empire of hubris, the EU.
Now, the existing fleet has to be maintained and supplied with spare parts while the project is over.
Cocoa
Cocoa
3 years ago
My HE Washing machine is so crummy that I run it with deep rinse, hevy soil, heavy load and extra water. It also destroys my clothing by grinding the fabrics against each other. All to save water, which I override EVERY TIME. Maytag. A total POS
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Cocoa
And some old folks remember the lonely Maytag repairman.
And it was true, they were really great, dependable machines, that worked extremely well.
Until they were made less expensively.
Avery
Avery
3 years ago
Reply to  Cocoa
Speed Queen
lamlawindy
lamlawindy
3 years ago
Reply to  Avery
100% Speed Queen. Basic, effective, durable.
Dave
Dave
3 years ago
Reply to  Cocoa
I could imagine someday when we have a black market on appliance improvements. Like the Seinfeld episode with “low-flow” showerheads.
Doug78
Doug78
3 years ago
Reply to  Dave
Saw that episode last night. Loved it!
Lisa_Hooker
Lisa_Hooker
3 years ago
Reply to  Dave
Smuggling high-quantity flush toilets into California?

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