The often volatile Advance Durable Goods report from the Census Department again has some details worth a close look.
New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $5.7 billion or 2.4 percent to $245.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two of the last three months, followed a 3.1 percent November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.5 percent. Transportation equipment, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, drove the increase, $5.9 billion or 7.6 percent to $82.9 billion.
Shipments
Shipments of manufactured durable goods in December, down six consecutive months, decreased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $250.4 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent November decrease. Transportation equipment, also down six consecutive months, led the decrease, $0.4 billion or 0.4 percent to $83.2 billion.
Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in December, down three of the last four months, decreased $0.8 billion or 0.1 percent to $1,156.0 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent November decrease. Machinery, down fourteen consecutive months, led the decrease, $0.5 billion or 0.5 percent to $101.6 billion.
Inventories
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in December, up seventeen of the last eighteen months, increased $2.2 billion or 0.5 percent to $436.0 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent November increase. Transportation equipment, also up seventeen of the last eighteen months, led the increase, $1.7 billion or 1.2 percent to $151.2 billion.
Capital Goods
Nondefense new orders for capital goods in December decreased $4.5 billion or 6.5 percent to $64.5 billion. Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 0.5 percent to $74.8 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $10.3 billion or 1.5 percent to $671.6 billion. Inventories increased $2.2 billion or 1.1 percent to $199.2 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in December increased $9.1 billion or 90.2 percent to $19.2 billion. Shipments decreased $0.3 billion or 2.5 percent to $12.4 billion. Unfilled orders increased $6.8 billion or 4.3 percent to $165.0 billion. Inventories decreased $0.3 billion or 1.3 percent to $24.0 billion.
Five Key Points
- Excluding defense, new durable goods orders decreased 2.5 percent.
- Shipments, which feed GDP estimates, were down six consecutive months.
- Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods are down three of the last four months. Unfilled orders are an indication of future hiring.
- Transportation equipment inventories are up seventeen of the last eighteen months. Think Boeing.
- Nondefense new orders for capital goods in December decreased $4.5 billion or 6.5 percent. These are considered “core capital goods”, an indicator of future expansion.
Defense spending is one thing propping up the economy.
But +2.4% sure is a beautiful headline number.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Questioning the whole “Trump Economy” may seem in poor taste to those who have benefited so much but it is something we should do. What is being ignored is the structural issues that haunt America’s competitiveness and far outweigh the benefits of lower taxes.
The Trump economy is based on huge deficit spending. We must also face the fact that deficit spending can only take the economy so far and carries with it a fair amount of negatives. The article below explores Trumponomics in all its glory and why this won’t end well.
https://The “Trump Economy” Is A Mirage Based On Spending.html
Exactly, it has also benefited the Obomber/Bush/Clinton/Bush/ Reagan economies.
Trump will to spend (borrow/print)hundreds of billions on some goofy ass space force while entire major cities turn in homeless squalor,what an idiot.
So those in private sector jobs are very vulnerable to layoffs. Direct government employees and government contractors have a little more financial security.
The “Forever Wars” are serving their purpose.
Core capital goods orders
consensus … +0.2%
actual … -0.9%
“New orders for manufactured durable goods in December increased $5.7 billion or 2.4 percent to $245.5 billion,”
…
Yeah, you have to appreciate the rope a dope. Gain would have been halved if not for negative revision to prior which provided a boost. Strip away ALL the BS and Total New Orders (year to date over 2018) fell from -1.3% in November to -1.5% in December.
All that BS is necessary to polish the turd (of truth).
Kinda surprising the Dems went along with stimulus spending in an election year.
They’re as dumb as they look.
Wow! Way to further the discussion. All of the Dems who “went along with stimulus spending” are also elected officials and many (most?) want to be reelected, so perhaps there’s your answer.
don’t forget the idiots who voted for them, Chichocki.
There is ONE party in DC, and it is the War Party.
Anyone who hasn’t figured this out by now is hopeless.