Durable goods orders plunged 0.8 percent in September and the Census Department posted a negative 0.8 percent revision to August. 
The Census Department Durable Goods Report for September posted some grim statistics, most of it aircraft related.
New Orders
- New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, down three of the last four months, decreased $2.2 billion or 0.8 percent to $284.8 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent August decrease.
- Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent.
- Excluding defense, new orders decreased 1.1 percent.
- Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $3.1 billion or 3.1 percent to $95.4 billion.
Shipments
- Shipments of manufactured durable goods in September, down two consecutive months, decreased $1.8 billion or 0.6 percent to $287.3 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent August decrease.
- Transportation equipment, also down two consecutive months, drove the decrease, $2.3 billion or 2.4 percent to $94.4 billion.
Unfilled Orders
- Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up forty-nine of the last fifty months, increased $2.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $1,391.2 billion.
- This followed a 0.2 percent August increase.
- Transportation equipment, up forty-four of the last forty-five months, led the increase, $1.0 billion or 0.1 percent to $895.1 billion.
Inventories
- Inventories of manufactured durable goods in September, down three of the last four months, decreased $1.0 billion or 0.2 percent to $528.3 billion. This followed a virtually unchanged August decrease.
- Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, led the decrease, $1.0 billion or 0.6 percent to $171.1 billion.
Capital Goods
- Nondefense new orders for capital goods in September decreased $4.0 billion or 4.5 percent to $84.1 billion.
- Shipments decreased $3.1 billion or 3.6 percent to $84.8 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $0.7 billion or 0.1 percent to $839.3 billion. Inventories decreased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $232.0 billion.
- Defense new orders for capital goods in September increased $1.1 billion or 6.4 percent to $17.5 billion.
- Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 0.8 percent to $14.4 billion. Unfilled orders increased $3.2 billion or 1.5 percent to $208.2 billion. Inventories decreased $0.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $25.6 billion.
Revised August Data
- New orders, $587.1 billion (revised from $590.4 billion)
- Shipments, $589.2 billion (revised from $590.1 billion)
- Unfilled orders, $1,389.0 billion (revised from $1,391.4 billion)
- Total inventories, $859.6 billion (revised from $860.2 billion)
All of the revisions were negative.
Spotlight Boeing
Much of this weakness is related to aircraft, always so volatile that it would blow the scales of every chart if I plotted the orders.
Yesterday, the Union Voted to Reject Boeing’s Latest Offer. I will cover this separately, but it is terrible news for Boeing.
My feelings say (feelings are my feminine side) is that people have enough crap already, at least as much as their feelings that their income and credit card debt have synced up.
Could it be excess COVID inventory is still sitting in warehouses? I remember as things were reopening 2-3 years ago, I ordered as much as I could for a project at work.
Good time to be in the weapons manufacturing realm.
The revisions, while negative, are not what I would describe as being “steep”
It’s larger than most other revisions in that series, and larger than most monthly values in the series as well. The revision took the August data from flat to -0.8%. And a -1.6% change in 2 months annualizes to 9.6%/year, which will certainly be steep if it continues.
Analysis looking for a specific answer?
These small monthly durable goods order numbers are volatile (as Mish said). The average for the last fourth months (not two) would average out to a positive 0.3% change per month. Which about matches the 4-month average before that. Which is higher than the 4-month average before that when overall real GDP was still growing substantially.
If the decline picks up considerably, it may be different for the future. But a 0.8% decline for a volatile series is not “plunging” or “steep” in a statistical analysis
More dogshit numbers from dogshit economy. #1 issue to voters. #2 is border. Starting to make sense
Washington Post refused to endorse. I guess he’s not Hitler after all. Hmmm.
All Jeff Bezos doing apparently.
I see the LA Times also not endorsing the cum dumpster either. First time for them too and some people quitting over it (no real loss)
L’Arroseur Arrosé
Hitler deal tough sell.
Ivanka Trump being married to Jared Kushner. Kushner being modern Orthodox Jewish.
This latest right up there with 50 Intelligence agents swearing on a stack of bibles, well maybe only signing a letter about Hunters Laptop being Russian disinformation.
What’s telling a little fib now and then anyways, no biggy..
Speaking of Adolf, when it comes to German generals, I’d take one Rommel over all of Biden-Harris’ DEI generals. Rommel was not only a brilliant Field Marshall, he had the guts to stand against Hitler, leading to his eventual ‘suicide.’
It’s not like Hitler didn’t have his good side.
JFK thought so, his diary revealed this point. Our version of history is a cascade of good guys (us) and evil villains.
your comments looking for good side of Hitler is ridiculous.
It is like saying that your executioner prayed daily