At Davos, Trump proclaimed he “defeated inflation”.
CPI January and December 2025
- CPI Jan 3.0, Dec 2.7
- CPI Excluding Food and Energy: Jan 3.3, Dec 2.6
- Medical Care Services: Jan 2.7, Dec 3.5
- Food and Beverages: Jan 2.4, Dec 3.0
- Food Away from Home: Jan 3.4, Dec 4.1
- Utilities and Fuels: Jan 2.9, Dec 6.7
- Rent of Primary Residence: Jan 4.2, Dec 2.9
- OER: Jan 4.6, Dec 3.4
- Shelter: Jan 4.4, Dec 3.2
- Energy: Jan 1.0, Dec 2.3
The Fed’s target is 2.0 percent. Only energy is close. But it’s up 1.3 percentage points since January 2025.
Things Getting Worse
- Medical Care Services
- Food
- Utilities
- Energy
Things Getting Better Slowly
- CPI
- Core CPI
- Shelter (Rent and OER)
Energy may be a surprise to some because Gasoline is down 3.4 percent from a year ago.
I don’t show Gasoline because it’s so volatile that it blows the scales on the graph in both directions.
But in the broader category of “energy”, electricity and natural gas more than offset the decline in energy.
Inflation Defeated
On January 21, 2026, CMBC reported Trump Says Inflation Was ‘Defeated.’
In the war on affordability, President Donald Trump has claimed victory over inflation.
Trump said during a speech Wednesday in Davos, Switzerland, that he had “defeated” inflation and reined in consumer prices over the past year.
In an address to world leaders and others at the World Economic Forum, Trump said that the U.S. has “virtually no inflation.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, also told CNBC that inflation remains “uncomfortably high.”
“Inflation is especially problematic for lower and middle-income Americans, given the high inflation for many staples such as groceries, electricity, apparel, furniture, childcare, and healthcare,” Zandi wrote in an e-mail.
Classic Trumpian Lies
Trump’s inflation claims are nothing but classic Trumpian lies. No one believes his nonsense, and it shows up in the polls.
Exaggerated claims on inflation destroyed Biden, and Trump is doing the same thing.
Trump just cannot help himself on anything, ever. Instead of under-promising and over-delivering, Trump over-promises and under-delivers everywhere.
Inflation remains out of control, and labor market weakness is obvious. It’s a bad economic mix for the Fed.
Related Posts
January 27, 2026: Trump Cheers a Plunge of the US Dollar “I Think It’s Great”
“Look at all the business we are doing,” says Trump.
A sinking dollar adds to inflation.
January 31, 2026: Competing Claims, How Much Labor Market Weakness Is There?
Some see “No Signs of Labor Market Weakness”. Others strongly disagree.
February 2, 2026: Odds of a National “Blue Wave” in Midterm Elections are now 69 percent
Three weeks ago blue wave odds were only 41%.
See the post for the polymarket definition of “Blue Wave”, now at 73 percent.
February 2, 2026: The Fed Has Two Huge Problems Starting Now, Acyclical Inflation and Jobs
The Fed is not in a good spot.
Addendum – Trump’s Economic Promises Timeline
8/9/24: “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.” NBC Montana, Trump Rally in Bozeman, MT, YouTube (August 9, 2024).
8/14/24: “Under my administration, we will be slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months” “Prices will come down. You just watch: They’ll come down, and they’ll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything.” PBS NewsHour, Trump Rally in North Carolina, YouTube (August 14, 2024).
8/17/24: “Starting the day I take the oath of office, I will rapidly drive prices down and we will make America affordable again. We’re going to make it affordable again.” “We’re going to get your energy prices down. We’re going to get your energy prices down by 50%.” PBS NewsHour, Trump speaks at campaign rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, YouTube (August 17, 2024).
9/5/24 @ 48:04 “We will eliminate regulations that drive up housing costs with the goal of cutting the cost of a new home in half. We think we can do that.” NBC News, Trump Addresses Economic Club Of New York, YouTube (September 5, 2024).
Source: Trump’s Economic Promises Timeline by US Rep Lloyd Dockett – Texas.
Many more humorous quotes.
“Trump just cannot help himself on anything, ever. Instead of under-promising and over-delivering, Trump over-promises and under-delivers everywhere” Indeed, sir.
What makes Trump, especially in his own mind, a perfect politician: He believes his own lies.
Once that sharpie is in his pudgy little hand, inflation can be any number he wants it to be.
Biden averaged 5% annual inflation for his term. Trump is averaging around 2.75% based on PCE.
both are way to high… inflation 0% should be the target so that middle class people don’t get eliminated and high debt/leverage is not unduly rewarded.
Not that simple. There are sticky prices and there is not adequate price competition, i.e., monopolies
About as successful as everything else he has done. The fact the the economy and financial markets have held up as well as they have is a testament to their resilience despite the daily actions of a deranged, self-centered maniac who desperately wants to be king.
How’s Trump doing on inflation? Shitty. We’re running a $2T deficit and he’s proposing a 50% increase in “defense” spending. He even wants to renovate the Kennedy Center (which his lackeys have temporarily renamed the Trump-Kennedy Center). We’re broke, m*therf*cker. Stop spending, you grotesque weirdo. That goes for the White House ballroom, too, even theoretically (which means not really) it’s all paid by private contributions (bribes).
First, if Trump had devoted his attention to inflation instead of the firehose of lies, half truths, propaganda messaging that he spews almost daily that is not inflation related and had his DOJ, FTC, Treasury, etc., similarly devoted their attention to ameliorating the effects of inflation on the working and middle classes along with jawboning the FED about inflation instead of ranting incessantly about firing the Powell he might have been successful. Instead the Donald does what he does and that is talk about himself and his so-called accomplishments that are failures, missed opportunities, and despicable behavior.
Second, the best arbiter of how the US is performing on inflation is the Atlanta FED monthly Sticky Price Report. Why is this better than the CPI or PCE? Because the Sticky measures the goods and services that move infrequently and are therefore more predictable where prices might be in 24 months. With that said the Atlanta FED report since Trump II was elected is in the below link.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STICKCPIM158SFRBATL
Needless to say the trend is not his friend.
Griffin is gone.
Had enough.
But I left her first amusing comment and my reply for posterity.
Anyone who replied to her other comments are erased by default.
With a valuation collapse in the global equity markets, the crypto markets, and the gold/silver markets, inflation will be defeated … along with the real consumer economy and the president’s administration who will lose an absolute 2-5% of his remaining 27% base. The Trumpist House leadership have shot themselves in the head with Clintons’ demanding an open forum for their questioning on the Epstein files … With Tulsi’s Russian allegiance under whistleblower claims, this administration and its Trumpist politicians are absolutely disintegrating.
Read from inside the snake pit:
“Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said President Trump’s Make American Great Again slogan was a “lie,” saying his first year back in office was focused on obliging wealthy supporters.
“I think people are realizing it was all a lie. It was a big lie for the people. What MAGA is really serving in this administration, who they’re serving, is their big donors,” Greene said in a Wednesday interview with radio personality Kim Iversen.
“The big, big donors that donated all the money and continue to donate to the president’s PACs and donate to the 250th anniversary and are donating to the big ballroom,” she added.”
I’m shocked! I guess people didn’t figure this out during his FIRST TERM.
Many of us, and I have been saying ‘look under the hood, he’s BEEN and IS lying!”
In the ’90’s I was the Kansas Director for the Psongas (sp?)/ Rudman bipartisan Ant-deficit cooalition. People woudl reply w/ ubsurd comments like “cutting teacher salaries will balance the deficit”. I realized back then people were stupid and ALWAYS sucked up to “the kindest Gentlest Way” – as easy, albeit stupid wins. Hear the political phrase “if you’re explaining you’re losing?” ALWAYS people want a kinder gentler way – and HAPPY to ignore real facts. Eat it. And note – this was:
During the longest GDP expansion of the Century!When Clinton and Washington would PAY DOWN the deficit.
All gone, people bought into BS and disregarded THE FACTS.
*’uck it. I tried – VERY HARD. I can only hope to suck up some reasonable amount of SS and Midicaid before it implodes.
This whole thing is on the backs of people who DID NOT WANT TO KNOW BETTER – BUT DIDN’T CARE. Enjoy your melt.
Hey… the Concord Coalition! I was a member. I guess you were the other member!
Paul Tsongas
Paul has been dead for decades.
Did we not fight for truth and justice?
WTH is now???
He made hundreds and hundreds or even billions of dollars for himself and his family.
The presidential post is a golden pot.
MAKE DONALD GREAT AGAIN.
Here in Australia we are now the first OECD country to start raising rates this cycle. This occured yesterday.
We have followed somewhat similar inflation paths to the US. We were quite slow to raise rates, it tamed somewhat. Though like the US our elected politicians have made inflation worse though through different means.
Inflation has been stubbornly over 3% when our target rate is 2-3%. So our central bank had only one sensible choice. (IMO we cut too early following the US)
Thanks for the report from Oz!
Federal Data Is DisappearingThe Trump administration has disrupted data collection on everything
https://www.notus.org/trump-white-house/federal-data-is-disappearing
If you haven’t been concerned about the data that’s come out the last 50 years then there is no point in worrying about it now but here are some key stats:
Trump will get the blame for the economic Trumpocalypse that’s coming even though it’s taken 50+ years to get here but it won’t matter anyway.
So yeah they can stop publishing data and try sweeping a ton of crap under the proverbial rug but the whole world knows it’s there and you can’t miss it. It stinks as bad as a Trump filled conference room!
But hey, the Arc de Trump, Trump-Kennedy Center, and the White House ballroom will all have Trump’s picture for you to gratify yourself with to keep the misery away.
Got exit strategy?
Really good post. Depressing though!
We’re going to need those Mexicans back.
And you know what?
Life longevity is coming. People will be healthy and live for well over 100.
They will be healthy, productive and health budget will drop.
? ? ? Really.
Over 100 years old. They will be healthy, independent and productive? ? ?
Do they have to go reeducation to fit in this AI economy?
No, they will be burdensome. Massive demographic shift. Endless handout for well over 50 years of their life. Massive strain on economy.
Hmmmmmmm.
thanks for the reference; this perspective, under the radar, completely escaped my attention.
This just in from a trusted mainstream media source – “Epstein was working for the KGB going back to Brezhnev.”
Back to Krushchev even. Lol. “Trusted mainstream media source”. Double lol. Also, it was Russia that attacked the USS Liberty.
A regular green cabbage on Amazon Fresh is $2.99. By Walmart delivery it would be $2.84 (but they are out of stock, and only have organic at $4.34). At Safeway it is $3.38. I have to have our groceries delivered since I am taking care of an elderly relative at home; I can’t go out scouring ethnic markets for bargains. My husband and I eat a lot of produce, and cabbage always was cheap. It is not cheap anymore.
Understood! I’m having trouble with cornflakes and coffee.
Look on the bright side, Karen. You may not be able to afford cabbage, but we will have a renovated Kennedy Trump Center in DC and a new White House ballroom.
I thought trueflation was less than 1% for last 12 months
Truflation is true bullshit. It’s market based rent measures only include new leases which are dropping.
~90 percent of the market is lease renewals.
Plus none of these measures include property taxes or homeowners’ insurance. So, it’s all bullshit.
You wonder how many blind loyalists would follow Trump even if he said that if people simply empty their tires— It would eliminate Inflation?
Best to completely avoid these Hicksvilles. Nobody lives there, anyway.
If you were on health care subsidies, SNAP or any other type of social program, your inflation has skyrocketed to the moon. If you don’t need or use any social program, your inflation has skyrocketed to the moon.
But the inflation today is going to pale in comparison to what will happen over the next few years. These are the good times inflation, enjoy them while you can because Trump is only going to make things worse.
Now is the time to load up on as many income producing assets as possible. Heck even some gold and silver will help.
Beneath the hood things are quite unstable – USD$ dropping = inflationary, USD/YEN, Sectors, Metals, Volatility = VIX – this is not normal! Some days the crosscurrents are greater than others. Like today.
Ths big risk is this unsettling instability is a sign of problems for which if the Fed has to eat a “Fed Put” for say a debt Minsky Moment we will then have much bigger problems. All made worst by our “Lie’n King”.
Testing, testing. I gather that my posts on this site are now being censored, and I am just seeing if this one gets through (and for how long, if so).
Trump was a practical businessman. He doesn’t seem to have much theoretical understanding of inflation. He does learn from experience, but he is running out of time to learn about this one. Inflation is one of the things that destroys all civilized societies in the long run. Censorship is another.
“Practical Businessman”? You are marninating in his koolaid.
THERE HAD NEVER, EVER BEEN A SCINTELLA OF THIS ADMINISTRATIVE CORRUPTION BEFORE.
Add to the $2.8 BILLION ALREADY DISCLOSED:FROM THE GOP’D WSJ NOW ADD $487 MILLION in UAE Bribes:https://apis.mail.yahoo.com/ws/v3/mailboxes/@.id==VjN-9oLYLKVm5VRty5CY7bsohIG4wwRa0dVhsPdRuU9fSqwCM1b2zIUxtwp4On7zgXGV6F676llwJijNHGM9Rx73ng/messages/@.id==AAC9eOrRVXMNhL2fwhxsJcgydYt/content/parts/@.id==2/thumbnail?appid=YMailNorrin&downloadWhenThumbnailFails=true&pid=2
He can’t run a regular above board business.
He’s the “Caligula of Grift”!
Before Trump was first elected in year 2016, the Australian Government was making large donations to the Clinton Foundation. Immediately it became clear that Trump had won, Australia stopped the donations. Do you think those donations weren’t for the purpose of buying influence, or that Hillary didn’t know about them? Don’t pretend to me that Trump is extraordinary, even if he does squeeze out some money here and there. I don’t like it, but I have to live with it. And shall we talk about the persistent story about how people who arrive in Congress poor leave very rich?
Whataboutism!!!!!
Respond first to the criticism about Trump through refutation of facts and events that he is not a grifter then bring in the Clinton Foundation, though the Clintons are pikers compared to the Trump Grift.
As I understand it, Trump was a real estate developer in New York City. To be a real estate developer, you have to deal with local politicians, too many of whom are stupid as well as corrupt. Some of them are so stupid that they don’t KNOW they are corrupt. As a developer, Trump would have to have dealt with them and given them what they wanted, without breaking any law himself. The people in charge of the law are also corrupt. I think you would have to be pretty bright, in a practical way, to thread the needle and make a profit.
I don’t know if I completely understand your American word “grifter,” but as I understand it, the Clintons were grifters – small-time crooks and swindlers who got very lucky. Trump is more of a master strategist. The fact that censorious ladies can’t see that is maybe more their problem than his.
Another non-sequitur, followed by obfuscation of what Trump has been since Daddy Fred Trump has had to bail him out and been culpable in racial discrimination per HUD and DOJ settlement then DJT filing bankruptcy in the real estate, casino, education, airline, etc., sectors.
He is such a grifter that transferred money raised for charity went to the Trump campaign, political contributions and other sordid transfers benefiting Trump.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trumps-charity-admits-violating-irs-self-dealing-ban
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/07/trump-charity-foundation-misuse-067411
‘Trump Lies’ has gone from Breaking News to business as usual
I await hearing how Biden’s claims that fell short were not the same politicians ruse as are Trumps/
I wonder why people ever thought Trump (lie or not) thought Trump could improve “things” he has not the power (nor does any president) to do.
I’m not defending Trump. I’m curious of what people really expected to happen in this nation regardless of which presidential candidate won (Harris or Trump).
What Ray Dalio (for one example). depicts about world political, economic and social decay) is beyond one man, president or not.
And, in our nation where half the population and the representatives of that population work to ensure failure, what are we to expect.
Blame Trump for failing to achieve what he said but blame yourselves also for believing and accepting what candidates say whenever they run for office.
What ever policy you can suggest that Trump should do will be shot down by the opposition.
Answer: Because the typical Trump voter never understood Trump doesn’t have that power. He told them he had the power, what more could they possibly do before believing him? It’s not like they would ever fact-check him, if you think they would well WC Fields to you good sir.
A president and congress cannot bring prosperity. When anyone alludes to that or says they can, we must “think” about what and why they say that and be pragmatic enough to discount it. Both parties and most politicians must “sell” themselves. “We”, don’t have to accept what the sell. We can “THINK”.
They all bullshit and we must wind up with one or the other. But then we must have realistic expectations about them.
What a politician can do is to get out of the way, and get the public servants out of the way. If he does that, and the society hasn’t been completely ruined, free people will do the rest.
I seem to recall a story from my school days (well over fifty years ago, so they probably don’t tell the kids about it now) about a time when French peasants were so exhausted by the interference and theft by the French upper classes that they stopped bothering to work, and the French aristocracy turned out and FLOGGED THEM OUT INTO THE FIELDS to work. If our stupid bureaucrats in the West were left to themselves, instead of being stopped from time to time by a man like Trump, they might find themselves having to flog the workers back to work, too.
Ayn Rand told you all about it. That must have been over fifty years ago, too. It is about fifty years since I discovered her work.
Were would we be, right now, if Harris won? Would we be shy of and free from criticism and strife? Would it be a “better world” and a “better US?”. That was the gamble in November 2024.
Of course a lot of unknowns… But here is my list. Canada conservative and Greenland heading for independence. Basic good terms with Canada, Mexico and the world.
The math bats last, as you say. The second half of the boomer cohort knew all of this by the late ’80s. They were still teaching about compound interest and exponents by the 6th grade 10 years prior.
Speaking of lies, please correct your headline. No one ever promised to “end inflation”. The Fed targets a minimum of 2% inflation as best for the long-term economy. Trump has made considerable progress toward that goal, reversing the clown-show performance of the Biden regime.
“Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.”
Apology accepted, if you make it.
Otherwise you are just another Trump-worshiping MAGA clown in a TWS hat.
Trump ALWAYS says over the top statements. Stupid shit like ‘solving Ukraine overnight’.
Sure, it’s over the top – and many of us might/would take it as a more reasonable “soon”. But damn, you, me EVERYONE should stand by your WORD. BY GOD YOUR WORD IS YOUR WORD.
But when it’s not even close Mish is right to call BS. B/e it IS.