Demand for EVs is crashing in the US. Only six percent want an EV for their next vehicle but 67 percent want an ICE up from 58 percent last year. 
2024 Global Automotive Consumer Study
Please consider the Deloitte 2024 Global Automotive Consumer Study
Four Key Trends
- Slowing EV momentum may be putting current decarbonization timelines in jeopardy.
- A significant number of consumers may be thinking about switching vehicle brands.
- Interest in connectivity features may not fully translate into revenue and profit.
- Younger consumers are interested in vehicle subscriptions, as a growing number of them question if they need to own a vehicle going forward.
BEV Charging Time and Anxiety Range
Price a Top Concern in the US
Subscription Model
Losing Bets
The Wall Street Journal comments on Hertz, Tesla and the Perils of CEO Groupthink
Hertz announced to much fanfare on Oct. 25, 2021, that it planned to buy 100,000 Teslas. “Electric vehicles are now mainstream, and we’ve only just begun to see rising global demand and interest,” then-CEO Mark Fields said. The share prices of both companies popped, and Tesla’s market capitalization surged past $1 trillion, exceeding the valuations of nearly all traditional automakers combined
Over the next year, Hertz announced plans to buy up to 65,000 Polestars and 175,000 electric vehicles from General Motors. Hertz featured Tom Brady in ads renting an EV. “Knowing Hertz is leading the way with their electric fleet speaks to how the world is changing and the way companies are approaching being environmentally and socially conscious,” the legendary quarterback proclaimed.
The market has changed. Electric-vehicle euphoria has crashed into reality, and Hertz’s bet has gone south.
Readers might have heard that lower maintenance costs are a major electric-vehicle advantage. As Hertz discovered, the opposite it true. Even minor accidents can require batteries to be replaced, which can cost $20,000. Many EV parts aren’t readily available, so cars have to sit in the shop for weeks.
The bigger problem is that Americans don’t want to plan trips around the locations of electric-vehicle charging stations—often to discover later that the chargers are broken. Nor do they want to download multiple apps to charge at different stations, or worry about their battery range degrading in cold temperatures.
Traditional automakers had committed to spend tens of billions of dollars on EVs. Startups such as Lucid, Nikola, Lordstown and Rivian debuted on public stock exchanges with fantastic market valuations despite having produced few if any cars. Rivian in early November 2021 boasted a $153 billion market cap. It’s now worth $17.3 billion.
As demand for electric vehicles stalled, the buzz wore off. The auto industry and investors are now suffering from a horrible hangover.
The EV reversal illustrates the perils of groupthink, which has infected the C-suite and Wall Street just as it has college campuses. Ideological conformity has fueled the ESG (environmental, social and governance) and DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) movements in corporate America, which have proved costly and distracting.
Eight Inconvenient EV Truths
- EVs are more expensive
- EVs are inconvenient for anyone who needs a public charger
- EVs are inconvenient for anyone who drives long distances
- Insurance costs are higher
- Maintenance costs are higher
- Repairs take longer and parts are in short supply
- Minor accidents can be very costly requiring a new battery
- Consumers don’t want the damn things and rightfully so
Those are the inconvenient facts.
In addition, people have legitimate concerns over many things including fires, battery recycling, minerals and mining, and whether EVs do anything positive for the environment at all.
To repeat, most consumers (94 percent) don’t want the damn things and rightfully so.
Hertz Is Selling 20,000 EVs Due to Lack of Customer Demand
On January 11, I noted Hertz Is Selling 20,000 EVs Due to Lack of Customer Demand
Hertz is selling a third of its EVs globally, with 20,000 in the US and will use some of the money to buy more Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) gasoline-powered cars.
Add that to the list of inconvenient facts.
Seeking Green Utopia, the US and EU are Quietly Killing Vital Industries
Despite the inconvenient facts, the US and EU governments are hell bent on pushing everyone they can into EVs.
The sad reality is a Green utopia will never exist. Meanwhile, the US and EU are Quietly Killing Vital Industries.
Finally, in China where EVs are soaring, China is still rapidly adding coal power plants to produce the needed electricity. Hooray?
I have 3 cars – 5yo gas full size truck, 3yo gas family SUV, and electric car for commuting to work. Had the EV for 1.5 years and 25k miles. No maintenance or repairs other than adding window wash fluid. Ive never needed to charge it outside of my home. It is by far the most fun and pleasant of our vehicles to drive. My kids much prefer to ride in the tesla than the other vehicles. My truck rarely gets driven other than trips to Home depot. We usually take the SUV to Disney/beach, but it feels like im driving a car from my childhood —-old fashioned. The EV has made my commute way way way more enjoyable. My family usually flys if the drive is more than 4 hours anyway. I really cannot see myself buying any more gas cars, maybe a hybrid if i really needed the distance. Heck my current EV is constantly getting better. Every time I update the software there is a new feature.
Its silly to let political bias keep you from buying a better product.
I don’t have a political bias other than not liking any of them for various reasons. I cannot stand Trump and would not vote for him.
I will vote Libertarian.
The fact of the matter is EVs are fine for a subset of people who have their own charger, seldom drive far, and can afford the high cost.
I am still waiting to see how they handle the next hurricane evacuation in Florida when millions of drivers all hit the road at the same time.
That will be fun.
Helicopters will hover above and drop electric plug lines, just as the military can refuel its planes while in flight!
Exactly.
I have under development a 3000 mile retractable extension cord for commercial air travel.
Most Hurricane evacuations don’t cause much battery drain.
You can use the A/C or Heat for DAYS without causing issues…and FLA isn’t that cold, so not a problem. That’s a buncha Fossil Fuels FUD. You know it. We know it. Everyone who pays attention knows it. Yeah, we realize your financial motivation is BIG OIL stocks.
There’s going to be about a 45% increase in EV Sales THIS year 2024 in the US.
That’s WAY faster than any ICE Vehicle manufacturer is growing (partiall because some are shrinking). Those sales are Almost ALL coming at the expense of ICE vehicles.
Model 3 is just above $31K with Fed Gov Incentives. WAY below the cost of the Average vehicle in the US, which is about $48,000.
The Model Y is a bit above $36K with Incentives…NOT counting any additional State Incentives.
There’s a REASON that the Model Y is the BEST Selling Vehicle in the ENTIRE World. Not a Toyota anymore.
There’s 280,000,000 passenger vehicles in the US that need to be replaced. PLENTY of people match the criteria for EVs…in fact, the VAST Majority.
Pretending that the shift isn’t already in process.
Poisonous Tailpipe fumes poison the air, Gasoline and Diesel Runoff and Refining poison the Water and the Air…they’ve been contributing to Lung Disease, Respiratory Illnesses and Cancer increases for many, many decades at scale. The healthcare costs alone of poisonous ICE exhausts are well in excess of any delta in costs. Time to get off the BIG OIL addiction.
Of that six percent, I’ll be a good never actually owned an EV before, and second time buyers are practically nil.
Completely false. First, 9% of people already Purchased EVs last year in the US. 90% in Norway, 60%+ in Scandinavia, 40% in China, The number of EVs purchased in the US will INCREASE AGAIN to more than 1,600,000 vehicles this year. A 45% INCREASE. Plenty of 2nd time buyers.
This has ALREADY happened for a decade in other countries and the US is rapidly catching up.
I think it’s a little humorous that we’re debating this as if EVs are at the peak of their capability/price/convenience/etc.
If you went back in time to 2010 and told me I could buy an electric car for $15k (what I paid for my lightly used Bolt) that would go 200+ miles and fully charge in an hour, you’d be laughed at.
EVs are already far superior for most short trips which is what most people do. They get cheaper every year. The charging station map adds new stations near my house what seems like every day. Tesla keeps selling more cars every year.
Even if we’re at the peak of EV tech, they’re a great car for a lot of purposes. If further improvements occur (which they certainly will) they’ll be even better.
Fox News reported there are lines of Tesla’s in Chicago waiting to recharge. The problem is the temperatures are too cold, so the battery takes hours just to reach fast charging temperatures. Some owners have tried multiple times. This reminds me of the gas lines in the 1970’s.
Most of that was hype. Teslas have been getting charged in Chicago for a Decade…no real problems. How many ICE vehicles didn’t start at that same time in Chicago during the Deep Freeze??? LOTS.
There’s TWO MILLION Battery issues from AAA for ICE vehicles Every. Single Year. in the US.
You know why they don’t make the news??? Because it’s SOOOOOOOO common an issue it’s not even relevant for local news. Just like the 200,000 ICE Vehicles that catch on FIRE Every Single Year in the US. Nobody cares…because it’s sooooo commonplace.
Tesla’s one of the fastest growing companies in the world. It gets MORE clicks than any other Topic relating to automobiles or Energy.
None of my friends who live up there in Chicago had any problems with their Teslas over the last month. FUD sponsored by Fossil Fuels companies… Most of those issues were from UBER Drivers who didn’t keep their vehicles charged or didn’t know what to do to pre-condition their batteries for charging.
Like it or not, there will be 1,600,000+ New EVs sold in the US this year. And 1,600,000 LESS ICE vehicles sold this year in the US.
Takes five times the dirt dug up to build them. Certain Components cannot be recycled! To power them you new you need Fossil Fuel electricity! They actually pollute more and are not cost effective. Fuel cells are the best can use the same infrastructure, offering less
Pollution as well.
“ Fuel cells are the best can use the same infrastructure, offering less
Pollution as well.”
Nope: Fuel cells require new infrastructure based on hydrogen production, distribution and storage. And after 50 years of using fuel cells, there is virtually NO infrastructure. It isn’t needed because there are only 15000 FCVs in the US vs 2.5 million EVs.
The infrastructure to support the growing number of EVs is currently being expanded. The infrastructure for H2 is not.
Currently 98% of H2 production comes from fossil fuels. There isn’t enough available electricity to mass produce H2 by electrolysis.
H2 will remain a niche market for decades.
Buncha Fossil Fuels FUD lies. NONE of Fossil Fuels can be recycled. You BURN it every day you drive. And poison yourself, your family, your friends and your neighbors every time you start your engine and drive around. Many EV owners have Solar and Battery Storage…don’t use a drop of Fossil Fuels. Many of the states with the Most EVs have gotten rid of Coal and are getting rid of Natural Gas over time. They use Hyrdo, Solar, Wind and Geo, PLUS Battery Storage. These points are Ten Year old FUD from Big Auto and BIG OIL…neither of which are your friends.
I likely have my gas truck the rest of my life but in the event I need another car it will be a classic gas engine. Many videos out there on how to make biofuel. It’s not that hard. Old grease, filtering and some other cheap chemicals. I will do it out of pure spite and the fun of driving it in 4th of July parades. Screw off.
The poisonous fumes from burning gasoline cause brain damage. It’s clearly too late to matter for you.
Out of curiosity, does it take time to price down the price of spare parts as EVs are relatively rare? Wouldn’t it be like that for any relatively new product in the market ?
We’re assuming EVs will never improve from today, apparently.
Spoiler Alert: None of these 8 items are true. Especially number 8, LOL
That is downright idiocy from TommyElectric
The adoption rate of EVs, actions by Hertz, actions by GM, action by Ford, and survey of intensions speak loud and clear.
And that is despite massive incentives and subsidies. OK EVs are coming, by government coercion if necessary.
And from Gary
“I can see the adoption of EVs going a bit slower than some expect but 75% of Americans drive less than 40 miles a day round trip to work and around an urban area. “
That is my expectation and I believe Papa Dave’s
There will be adoption and for some, EVs make sense. But upfront costs are big despite subsidies.
I suspect gov’t coercion is actually making matters worse especially after subsidy ends.
Regarding Insurance
EVs generally more expensive for makers with ICE counterparts, but difference is dropping. But Teslas are amongst the most costly electric vehicles to insure.
https://www.moneygeek.com/insurance/auto/electric-vehicle-insurance-costs/
Regarding Repairs
Kelly Blue Book
“Generally, higher-priced vehicles cost more to insure because they also cost more to repair or replace. Today’s electric vehicles also have fewer moving parts than conventional automobiles, but those parts can be pricey. If the battery pack is damaged, certain safety protocols are often necessary, adding more to the repair bill.”
The report adds, “There aren’t as many shops with technicians trained to fix electric vehicles versus traditional vehicles. That means those qualified facilities may charge more for repairs because of the specialized training required.”
Progressive
https://www.progressive.com/answers/car-insurance-electric-vehicles/
Insurance for an electric car may cost more than insurance for a regular gas-powered car. An electric car’s higher price tag and more complex equipment means it may cost more to repair or replace if it’s in an accident. That can mean higher rates for policyholders who carry comprehensive and collision coverage. However, tax incentives and long-term savings on fuel and maintenance can help offset higher insurance rates.
Let’s not kid ourselves. The VAST majority of EVs in the US are from Tesla. They have their OWN Insurance that is much cheaper than Legacy Insurance Companies.
The VAST majority of people in the US don’t drive that far, so it isn’t “for some” it’s “For MOST” people distance isn’t an issue.
The best selling vehicles (Model Y) keeps getting cheaper every year.
There’s a REASON that the Model Y has outsold EVERY other Vehicle in the World last year. And there will be around 4 MILLION more EVs sold this year than last year. Around 18 or 19 Million this year VS 15 Million last year. People who drive EVs know that FOX “news-tainment” is sponsored by BIG OIL and Legacy Auto…and the irony is that they’re fighting against the Fastest Growing AMERICAN Manufacturing Company there is. Such silliness.
Would not be surprised to see FORD have Tesla start making most of its EVs…they’re already switching to Tesla SuperChargers…and Plugs in their vehicles.
I think part of the reason the US is against EV is becaue they don’t have an SUV EV. We like our SUV’s. The lowest model is priced high. I can’t imagine what a EV SUV would be priced at. I don’t think they’ll make them in my lifetime. We will NEVER buy an EV. The initial cost is high. If you’re in an accident your car could get totaled if the battery is damaged. The money you’ll receive to replace your vehicle is estimated on deprectiation so you better have enough money to replace it. My sister and brother-in-law both live in Texas are work for auto insurance companies. It’s cheaper to pay to total a car than to fix it. Not all body shops can handle repairs for EV’s. The MSM doesn’t talk about these issues.
This is BALONEY. There are SEVERAL SUV EVs. Stop the Fossil Fuels FUD. End of story.
At first vehicle subscriptions will be a good deal. But then as everyone adopts them the price on them and the terms of the subscription deal will just get worse and worse for the stupid consumer who simply cannot pass up on a freakishly unfair deal in the favor of someone else. How is the world so full of morons?
There’s already “Vehicle Subscriptions” that MILLIONS of people use every day. It’s called Ride Share and it’s way cheaper than owning a vehicle for Millions of People. Automobiles depreciate at a terrible rate. Always have…always will.
My wife and I have owned two EVs for the past 2 years, we are fully electric and neither EV is a Tesla. We charge at home 95% of the time. We live in the SE USA, where the DC fast charging infrastructure is sub-par to many other parts of the country. We have taken long trips with zero issues charging. Our insurance did not go up. We have spent zero money on maintenance other than windshield wiper fluid, cabin air filters and windshield wiper blades. Our total “fuel” bill for the entire year of 2023 for home charging was under $600 for BOTH cars, yes under $300 for each car to drive roughly 12,000 miles per year in each car. We haven’t had any accidents so no repairs needed. Only a few times we have had to bring the cars to the dealership for software updates or service recalls, all of which were very minor. Yes, driving a long distance takes a bit more planning but we only take these trips 2-3 times per year. The rest of the time we are home charging and waking up to a full battery every morning. The time it takes to plug in an EV is the same time it takes to plug in your cell phone. The ride quality of an EV is smooth, firm, responsive and very vexciting. We are 100% sold on EVs and will never return to an ICE vehicle.
well good for you.
You have a home charger negating poor infrastructure.
You don’t mind the hassle of driving long distance because you only do 2 trips a year.
You are a suitable candidate for EVs
Yes, I am the majority of the motoring public.
Really chaps their behind to understand that the MAJORITY of New Vehicle Buyers are also the Majority of Home Owners, who usually have access to charging, Huh?…
Keep on keeping on!
Cheers!
Just like the VAST majority of Home Owners. The people who own the MOST vehicles.
When it comes to Tesla’s, the cars seem to have numerous serious problems that Musk tries to hide from that might be rolled into the “maintenance” costs figure. Perhaps if Hertz had chosen a better brand, they wouldn’t have to be writing down their investment.
——–
Tesla blamed drivers for failures of parts it long knew were defective
Wheels falling off cars at speed. Suspensions collapsing on brand-new vehicles. Axles breaking under acceleration. Tens of thousands of customers told Tesla about a host of part failures on low-mileage cars. The automaker sought to blame drivers for vehicle ‘abuse,’ but Tesla documents show it had tracked the chronic ‘flaws’ and ‘failures’ for years.
By HYUNJOO JIN, KEVIN KROLICKI, MARIE MANNES and STEVE STECKLOW Filed Dec. 20, 2023, 11 a.m. GMT
Shreyansh Jain was ecstatic in March when he picked up his first electric vehicle, a brand-new 2023 Tesla Model Y. He used a sizable chunk of family savings to buy it with cash.
“We were over the moon!” said Jain, an electronics engineer in Cambridge, England.
His exuberance came to a “grinding halt” one day later, with 115 miles on the odometer, Jain told Reuters. As he drove with his wife and three-year-old daughter, he suddenly lost steering control as he made a slow turn into their neighborhood. The vehicle’s front-right suspension had collapsed, and parts of the car loudly scraped the road as it came to a stop.
“They were absolutely petrified,” Jain said of his wife and daughter. “If we were on a 70-mile-per-hour highway, and this would have happened, that would have been catastrophic.”
The complex repair required nearly 40 hours of labor to rebuild the suspension and replace the steering column, among other fixes, according to a detailed repair estimate. The cost: more than $14,000. Tesla refused to cover the repairs, blaming the accident on “prior” suspension damage.
Jain is one of tens of thousands of Tesla owners who have experienced premature failures of suspension or steering parts, according to a Reuters review of thousands of Tesla documents. The chronic failures, many in relatively new vehicles, date back at least seven years and stretch across Tesla’s model lineup and across the globe, from China to the United States to Europe, according to the records and interviews with more than 20 customers and nine former Tesla managers or service technicians.
…
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-musk-steering-suspension/
It’s just really simple at the moment for me, and that’s all i can speak for on “want”. I have friends (in low places) in Des Moines, Branson area, and La Crosse. It was minus 10 on Saturday. If I chose to visit my friends, I would be asking for massive range risk and danger at these temperatures to drive there. Sure I may get good at planning such an undertaking in an EV future but currently my only need when deciding on a trip is who can watch my cats. I have zero range concern with an ICE or a Hybrid. I cannot purchase an EV because i have no interest in buying the additional headache and worry when none exists today with ICE or hybrid. And that’s why the poll is accurate for so many folks. Subsidies, mandates, maintenance costs or cost to own long term, ultimate disposal–none of them matter if I have to plan my excursions as if I were traveling to Europe or the moon. I’m sure there are 1,000 gas stations within 1/2 mile of my entire trip to Des Moines though I don’t need fuel before arrival. In these temps I couldn’t get there reliably, without risk at -10F and without recharging. Don’t make it about religion here–folks have lots of worries so, until infrastructure changes, they likely are like me and don’t want to introduce a problem or complexity where none exists today. Not a luddite, I have an air source heat pump with propane as the fuel for late Dec-mid March. Much of America is rural and Americans are used to traveling large distances. ICEs/Hybrids allow us to continue to live our lives as we want, and that’s what the poll was asking!
The VAST Majority of the population in the US is NOT rural…not even close. Most live IN cities or Suburbs..or very near them.
The Model Y is the BEST Selling Vehicle in the World for a reason.
Anyone who ACTUALLY drives EVs knows this entire paragraph is a buncha hooey from Fossil Fuels FUDsters that have been lying about this for more than a decade. Simply put. people in Norway, part of which is ABOVE the Arctic Circle and makes Des Moines Winter seem like a tropical paradise, are NINETY PERCENT new EVs. They’re doing just fine. I lived in Chicago until a couple of years ago for a decade…just fine in Winter. This isn’t a thing…it’s for clicks and ad revenue from news who doesn’t bother to cover the 200,000 FIRES of ICE vehicles each and every year in the US. They also don’t cover the TWO MILLION Gasoline / ICE Vehicle Dead Battery Services that AAA has to perform every year in the US. WHY doesn’t the news cover that, you ask?? Because it’s SOOOOOOOOO common that nobody actually cares about it. It happens to ICE vehicles every single day of the year.
What is a “subscription model”? A “lease” by another name?
Boycott mercedes and bmw for supporting Israeli genocide at icj.
I am buying a new BNW M440i that is due to arrive at the dealership next week
But Hamas leaders love driving them!
Change will happen. Much like smart phones. 20 years ago many people were reluctant to get a mobile phone. Now the majority of most people on earth have one.
Uh… no. F. Fail.
Costs of EVs are already insane. The Ford EV truck prices went up last year by 10K+ because of increases in the cost of the batteries.
The thing is … there is nowhere near enough raw materials to build all the batteries required… so even a slight uptick in EV sales drives prices higher.
Read My Lips – There will be no transition to EVs because it is impossible
Impossible like powered flight?
Or getting to the moon? Or Radio? / Satellite Phones and TV?
Cheers!
Read our lips…EVs are ALREADY transitioning. There’s MORE EVs sold every year Globally than ALL vehicles sold in the US combined.
The US is the only Advanced Economic Country that’s really behind the curve…but the number of EVs will grow about 45% this year or more in the US. The prices of EVs have gone down dramatically, with Teslas now at $31K (or less) with Fed & State Incentives. They will CONTINUE to go down in price as the volume continues to go up. The average price for a New Vehicle is $48,000 in the US btw.
There’s PLENTY of materials in the world to build batteries. More being brought online every month. “We make the Impossible, merely late.” The vast majority of materials in batteries can be recycled. This isn’t a thing at all. Keep believing EXXON…they’ve never lied to you before…Oh! Wait! I’m sure there were WMDs in Iraq…they just musta all been used up before the Texas Based, US Politicians invaded YET Another OIL Producing Country for their OIL Overlords.
Big difference between a $1,000 phone and a $60,000 car my friend
Which is why the Tesla Model 3 is about $31k after incentives. The Best selling Vehicle in the World, the Tesla Model Y is about $36k after Incentives. But just keep talking about the Fossil Fuels FUD points. They’re happy poisoning your with your own exhaust. EXXON thanks you for your obedience. They’ll tip their cap next time they start another War over OIL, so they (and OPEC+) can jack the prices up to $100 / bbl again.
“Finally, in China where EVs are soaring, China is still rapidly adding coal power plants to produce the needed electricity. Hooray?”
The coal plants are located away from population centers. Coastal China is so densely populated, that even emissions from minimally-polluting modern engines add up. Chinese also generally commute fairly locally. US-style “road trips”, or driving across the continent for Thanksgiving, is not nearly as common in that country of airplane-speed trains from everywhere to everywhere. So EVs are a much better match for actual driving patterns there.
Also, China is wealthy. They added more net new infrastructure yesterday, than the US has done cumulatively since 1970. Just as they added more hospital capacity in the first two weeks of the Covid pandemic, than The West has added since German Reunification. And more high speed rail last year, than Europe and Japan has done since the initial Shinkansen. And more housing since 2020, than the US has since the Western Expansion. Or something along those lines. Infrastructure shortages, just don’t seem nearly so insurmountable then.
That’s all very China; or at most wealthy, dense Asia; specific though. In the US, none of that holds. Here, there is precious little benefit from trying to stuff BEVs down people’s throats by government fiat and encouragement.
“Just as they added more hospital capacity in the first two weeks of the Covid pandemic, than The West has added since German Reunification.”
Some time later, i read that the 10 day hospital build was a hoax, along with people dropping dead in the street.
The US built hospitals for covid patients, but they didn’t come. Looks like we had a spendemic.
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/07/851712311/u-s-field-hospitals-stand-down-most-without-treating-any-covid-19-patients
Building infrastructure is easy. Building infrastructure that will turn a profit is much less so. Once built, infrastructure has to be maintained and that costs money, lots of money, so if there is no profit you either have to look for subventions or let it deteriorate like China’s Ghost Cities or the Rust Built in the US. France has high-speed rail and it is a pleasure to ride but to build them they had to close the rail system that serviced small and medium-sized cities so now to go from one to the other you need a car where before you didn’t. The end result is that big cities get the service and all others do without. There are only two high-speed lines that turn a profit and all the others are loss-making and are heavily subventioned. In China is it the same?
The government building anything is not easy
“Building infrastructure is easy.”
If one is minimally competent. As America at least somewhat remained, back when the interstates were originally built. If one is not, even maintaining already built infrastructure is obviously very hard.
Kind of like building airplanes.
Generally: Somewhat competent people with resources, simply have many more options than incompetents who are broke.
As for France: Public transportation serving towns with population one, never made sense to anyone but silly ideologues bent on vilifying private cars in the first place. Chinese high speed trains are built between midsize-and-above cities. Midsize in China meaning Berlin, Marseilles or thereabouts population vice. Far above where issues of managing parking and orchestration of current private cars become harder than concentrating people on trains and railways. And that’s before considering pollution impacts.
Germany does provide proof individual cars can serve to connect economies which add up to almost Shanghai sized in a more distributed fashion. But again; the German freeway system does presuppose both competence and resources. Absent those, it’s back to Anglo style falling down of everything while frantically trying to make up for it by the only thing anyone is still capable of: Printing dead guys faces on paper pieces while desperately bombing everyone and everywhere in order to continue getting some attention,
Funny how EV owners seem to not understand that they are driving coal-powered ‘clean’ vehicles
hahaha… how dumb is that
Funny how Fossil Fuels FUDsters seem not to understand that they are simply parroting OLD talking points from BIG OIL. Hahaha! How ignorant is that?
Many EV owners have Rooftop Solar and Battery Storage…not only do they NOT use Coal…they don’t use Gas either. The amount of Coal usage in the US has plummeted from well over 60% to LESS than 20% in just over a decade. Coal is completely OLD news Slow FUD Eddy.
Oh the nonsense would be humorous if you weren’t poisoning yourself, your family, your neighbors and your friends every time you started and drove in your ICE vehicle. EXXON and OPEC+ appreciate your loyalty and donations…and will think of you fondly next time they start a WAR in an OIL producing country to jack up the prices to $100 per Barrel. Really…I am SURE they will.
The US has been adding EV infrastructure for OVER a decade and has one of the fastest growing EV infrastructure anywhere. There’s a reason that EVs are growing so much faster than ICE is collapsing. There’s 18 or 19 MILLION EVs that will be sold this year. More than ENTIRE amount of vehicles sold in the US each year. The US will increase EV sales by about 50% again this year. Most people drive 40 miles per day or LESS in the US. Pretending that that’s not the case is absurd.
My only concern is upfront cost.
If they were cheaper to buy outright, I’d purchase one in a heartbeat.
The do NOT cost more to maintain when all costs are factored in. No oil changes saves a lot, plus there’s fewer moving parts.
They cost 1/3rd to operate over a ICE car for fuel.
It’s that upfront cost that keeps me away. Because of that upfront cost, an EV costs more to run than an ICE car.
I vote with my wallet and the way to get me to change my vote is to get my wallet to agree.
I think long term, the prices will come down. Lithium is going to absolutely crater in price. The world has way more lithium than it can ever use, even with present discoveries, they just need to find the will to get it.
For me, it worked out to a small cost savings vs the equivalent gas. Roughly 3 years to an economic break even, in line with the environmental break even. Up front cost is real, but manageable.
You are deluding yourself… with your coal powered jalopy
And YET…EVs will grow over 45% AGAIN in the US this year. They’re replacing ICE vehicles both in the US and Globally. There will be more than 18 MILLION EVs sold Globally this year…which is more than ALL of the passenger Vehicles sold in the US this year. The US averages 40 Miles per day or less. Not long distances.
The funny thing is that Fossil Fuels actually cause people to die earlier, get lung disease and illnesses, cause cancer and other health problems. The COST from those are massive. But silly people pretend that OPEC+ is their buddies…and that they won’t jack up OIL prices to $100 per Barrel AGAIN. Hope you enjoy the next OIL SHOCK.
Why would you ignore the other 7 points? Please help me understand your thinking
I was looking for a new vehicle, ended up with a BMW. Ever different dealership I went to while deciding on the model I told them I don’t want an electric vehicle, SUV, truck, convertible or 2 door. I want a 6 cyl turbo, 4 door sedan
Bunch Fossil Fuels FUD…that’s why. Maintenance Costs are lower…almost NO Maintenance needed.
Tesla Model 3 ($31K) and Model Y ($36K and Best Selling Vehicle in the ENTIRE World) after US incentives, are both less than the Average New Vehicle Price of $48,000 in the US. WAY less when you count costs of Maintenance and Gasoline / Diesel)
Almost NO-ONE in the US drives long distances on a regular basis. 90%+ are Less than 50 miles.
Plenty of chargers at Grocery Stores, Home, Apartment Complexes, Movie Theaters, Work Places, Parking Lots, Parking Decks, Starbucks is adding them to nearly all their locations where possible.
“Minor Accidents” don’t require a new battery…quit the lie.
Consumers are ALREADY buying them…OVER 15 MILLION sold last year Globally…OVER 1.1 MILLION sold in the US last year. The US will sell 45% MORE EVs this year than last year. Which means that LESS ICE vehicles will be sold this year than last.
That survey was a crock…or was 961 Fox Viewers. Either way LOTS more EVs sold in the US this year.
Then buy one from Hertz for $20k
You have to wonder, how many of these C-suite people and politicians and their media minions, are actual cilmate cult retards, and how many of them are cynical psychopaths, just jumping any way to squeeze more cash of another fad.
Much better than being actual brain damaged people huffing the poisonous fumes from their tailpipe. ICE vehicles are dying…while killing you and your family. Cancer, Lung Disease, respiratory illnesses and hear disease all worse because of poisonous emissions from your tailpipe. But just keep sucking it down…Darwin awards.
I’ve advocated for common battery system for all EV’s
make battery better – great – still same size/connections/etc.
then make battery service stations were they replace old discharged battery with fully charged one – $50 and 10 minutes and you’re on way
station re-charges for next one
also when newer batteries are built they can replace old ones with industry program
charge $$ when EV sold to fund it
Think about all the format wars between companies over computer connectors and media formats, never mind Betamax v VHS. There’s no incentive for companies to do that, hence Appie just make their own connectors etc…
Which reminds me…
How do you get your data off old 5 1/4″ floppies?
You may spend $50 to gas up.
I spend $12.
Big difference.
If EVs ever do replace ICE vehicles the greenies, the government and legacy media will denounce them as the worst thing ever for the environment. They will say that mining, battery disposal waste, battery fires and the vast amount of electricity the EVs consume is destroying the world. While these reasons are true minus the hyperbole, these excuses will be the purpose to get you out of your car because that is their ultimate goal.
Wolf Richter of Wolfstreet.com has been on fire over EV naysayers. He insists quite the contrary is happening: ICE sales are declining and almost perfectly being replaced with EV sales. Or, as Wolf put it: “Every EV sold is not an ICE sale.” I don’t know what to think, since there are fact and figures for both arguments.
Personally I wanted to get a CNG car. There’s a filling station in the other town and its cleaner and cheaper than gasoline. But Honda Civic CX stopped being made in 2013 and there are not many mechanics around who handle that work, though its not much different than other ICE engines. Its a pity.
Hydrogen Fuel cell seems far more likely to emerge as a long-term winner.
But only in DelusiSTAN
Wolf is not wrong when he says that every EV sale is not an ICE sale. The number of cars sold is pretty constant.
But he seems to predict that trends go on forever instead of plateauing. In other words he believes that if EV sales are growing 10% a year that will continue until 100% of all car sales are EV’s. But there is no evidence that is going to be true. It can and likely will plateau at a certain point when the early adopters and enthusiasts all have an EV.
At that point EV and ICE sales will essentially stagnate (whether it’s 50%-50% or 60%-40% or 30%-70%etc). The only way it will move off that point is if something dramatically changes that makes one way more competitive than the other.
Wolf also insisted that self driving taxis would rule the world – then San-Fran quickly back peddled and pulled them off the streets
Wolf does not mention this
Medicare savings going to EV subsidies.
https://www.newsweek.com/electric-car-credits-biden-picks-green-new-deal-over-seniors-opinion-1859258
Wolf is a MORON. Try posting this article on his site and I guarantee you he will delete it.
Reflect on
“US and EU governments are hell bent on pushing everyone they can into EVs,”
and Bait and Switch.
The people pushing EVs and climate change alarmism would like to go further, to ditching the private automobile with no replacement at all, therefore no need for EVs. That everyone shall walk (, or bicycle).
In the EU the governments are already promoting that, with closing parts of cities to some or all automobiles, and with promoting “10 minute cities” where everything you need is within a 10 minute walk.
Electric car sales will only grow by 20% in 2024 versus the 60% seen in the previous 2 years. That’s not a crash.
Grow where? China?
YES! They will continue to pile them into parking lots and let them rust… and call them sold
I’m sure decarbonization and climate change will be on the ballot in November. But not term limits, a balanced budget amendment, or prosecuting everyone involved in forcibly injecting us with experimental mRNA and imposing martial law…..
I watched my local TV stations this morning and a common story was how EV charging stations were backed up for hours over night in temperatures of -10 F. Video showed some EVs being towed because they had used up their charge trying to stay warm and couldn’t move. EVs may be popular in warmer areas, but today in Chicago it’s hard to be an EV owner.
As near as I could tell, I was getting about 2/3 of the quoted max range at below zero this weekend. 300 miles becomes effectively about 200. I started the day with a 50% charge and did an afternoon’s worth of errands with no problem though.
I didn’t see any big issues with charging stations in Denver. The stations at the biggest suburban mall were full – but there’s a grand total of 4 of them that I saw, so not a big surprise on a crowded shopping day.
It looks like my battery gets hammered in the first 5 miles and then as the battery warmers catch up it does ok.
yes – EV’s work best for people with garages or at a minimum private driveways. At least for now.
I’d only get one for commuting. I think the best option is the hybrid. My buddy got one after his car got totaled in an accident. Got a Kia. Uses it for commuting to work and around town. Functions like a Prius. Gets over 50 miles a gallon. I think this is a great idea and this is the best alternative vs just EV.
Depends. For me, the PHEV didn’t really address what I wanted – no ICE engine at all. If it were going to be my only car, then absolutely. As a second commuter-only vehicle? Nah.
Like all things – there’s a tool for every job, and no size fits all. There’s lots of room for both. I’ll admit if that the PHEV jeep could fit into my garage, then….
I prefer an elephant, camel, or horse… much more environmentally-friendly, and you can breed them and eat them too. No need to live in a pod, with an EV, eating anthropod smoothies through a drip.
But why?
They don’t actually work for anyone
It just doesn’t work if you don’t have your own charger. I’ve never used a public one… they usually seem fairly empty, except for holidays, when they look impossible.
Having your own charger means never going to the gas station again.
I agree with that. Fast DC charging is a bit hard on the battery, and slow charging would be a massive PITA. EV’s don’t fit everyone.
A bit hard… hahahahahaha… a bit…
But I can put 500km into my vehicle in a few minutes at a gas station …
Why would I want to wait hours to do the same with an EV?
I live in a northern cold-weather state. As I write, it is -6 F outside with a predicted high of 7 F. Yesterday it got down to -15 F and the high was 0. These temperatures are not friendly to EVs. EVs greatly lose power and range once temperatures get cold.
If someone is to purchase and use an EV in a state like mine, they need to be able to park it inside a heated garage (or, at least a full-enclosed garage). That is a luxury. But then, EVs are luxuries — generally a wealthier person’s third car. A toy.
I noticed that the one EV in our area –a Rivian — has not been out since summer ended. A small sample, I know, but interesting to me.
Today Illinois Governor Fatso is making his way to Iowa to campaign for Biden. (What’s up with that? Did a Chicago journo type from Northwestern notice people practicing to spell k-u-c-i-n-i-c-h on an Ankeny diner counter napkin?) If he’s doing the right thing and riding in an EV limo with those weather conditions, – 7 deg F now, he may wind up being stranded at Starved Rock state park.
It’s not a toy for us and wasn’t that pricey really. $43k on a cash purchase equivalent basis (leases right now are priced very advantageously).
Not really a toy – a pretty good commuter car for around town. Once in a while a 2 hour drive to some mountain property we have, but probably wouldn’t try that in subzero weather. Heated garage isn’t necessary, but a garage or other means to have a convenient at-home charger is a requirement (for me, at least).
EV’s are luxuries in two senses of the word – 1) it’s a great second/commuter car not a primary car. 2) They went after the high end of the market hot and heavy and somewhat ignored the bottom end. That’s slowly changing.
My wife drives the hell out of ours… 18k a year. It’s the only car she’s got.
Saves a few hundred a month over what she was spending on gas before.
For a commute that’s 20+ miles each way or someone who drives a lot locally? Absolutely. I think that’s where the EV starts to shine.
I don’t understand…
And….
You can get an elephant for $43,000, much better value for money.
0-60 time sucks though. I don’t even want to think about emissions.
Try accelerating with an EV then trying to slow hard into a corner… that massive battery weight is a problem
Top speed of 25 mph is concerning as well. I heard Volvo drivers often transition to elephants due to the 10 ton collision advantage.
But…
What is the source of your power? Nuclear? Coal? Gas?
You’d have be deeply delusional to buy an EV in a cold region … alas delusion quickly gets shattered when you try to run the heater hahaha
I live at 10,000 feet in Colorado and it’s lousy with Rivians and Teslas (I have a Bolt). Everyone does fine in the winter.
As usual, the reality often lies between the two extremes.
The big surge in EV sales growth is likely over in the US and China. Expect continued “slow growth” in sales.
Expect PHEV to be the new growth area. Which is where we should have focused our attention in the first place, rather than straight EV.
Expect ICE sales to continue their slow decline as folks slowly switch to PHEV.
At some point in the future, battery tech will improve enough to make EVs cheap enough to become adopted on mass. But I don’t know when that will happen.
No, I think Hydrogen, Ammonia, and on-board micro-generators… too many of EV/PHEV advocates are not engineers and have little idea of the reality of what they are advocating for. The problem is the ultimate source of energy, and PHEV doesn’t fix that, it’s just a fossil-fuel-powered EV… if you want to be “sustainable”, buy a horse and cart, a dirigible, or a sailing boat. People pushing junk EV tech are not meeting any spec of their requirements capture. You want to decarbonise, right? So use Hydrogen, not Carbon!
About a month ago I saw a company, which I can’t recall, was building a green hybrid where the charging mechanism is a fuel cell rather than a gasoline engine. Range was 700+ miles.
In 50 years they’ll be saying the same thing
Hydrogen is too hard to store and explodes easily and ammonia literally stinks. I would not like to drive a car that has those aspects. Can you imagine trying to impress a girl with a car that smells and could explode at any minute? I prefer to pick her up in a Tesla.
I prefer having my driver pick her up in the Maybach.
Depends where you live. Montreal for example is >90% hydro and 5-6 cents per KwH. Definitely makes sense there.
“ too many of EV/PHEV advocates are not engineers and have little idea of the reality of what they are advocating for.”
It’s not about engineering. It’s about momentum. H2 FCVs have been a niche for 50 years. They will be unable to reach big enough numbers to gain the momentum needed to become a success.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will remain niche vehicles for the rest of this century.
“ The problem is the ultimate source of energy, and PHEV doesn’t fix that, it’s just a fossil-fuel-powered EV”
“ You want to decarbonise, right? So use Hydrogen, not Carbon!”
Less than 2% of hydrogen is currently green. The other 98% is produced from fossil fuels. You are NOT reducing carbon by using hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. And there is very little spare electricity around to generate more H2.
We can’t even build out enough nuclear and renewables to meet our electrical requirements right now. Let alone use it to generate green hydrogen.
There are 2.5 million EVs in the US. The infrastructure is currently to service these EVs is being built out at great expense.
There are only 15k FCVs in the US after 50 years of development. There is no infrastructure to support them. And no money for infrastructure since we are already building the EV infrastructure.
I expect EV sales will yoyo around for a while before taking off again. Smartphone adoption and many other high-tech innovations followed the same pattern. Battery technology will get better and perhaps much better and infrastructure buildout will alleviate the rechanging station worry.
I agree. But on a different time frame. PHEV sales will surpass EV sales before the end of the decade. And they will stay ahead until the battery tech and infrastructure improvements occur. Which probably won’t happen till after 2040.
PHEVs are the bridge vehicle that gets us to an EV dominated world by around 2050.
In 2050 I expect ICE, PHEV, and EV numbers to be roughly equal. After that, EVs will dominate. FCVs will still be a niche.
On top of it all, the groupthink reason to drive EVs over ICEs – carbon dioxide induced climate change – is the biggest hoax of the 21st century.
Late 19th century if you’re dating from when the relationship between atmospheric CO2 and temps was first discovered and mathematically estimated.
The people buying them now are no longer the Green group.
Slow down, Skippy.
“ Consumers don’t want the damn things and rightfully so”
1.2 million people bought one this year. People do want them, but ICE and PHEV cars will likely be better sellers overall. You’re being as categorical as the green true believers here. They will be neither 100% of cars sold nor will they be 0%.
It’s not The Answer, but they aren’t stupid either. For me, it’s the perfect second car. The phrasing of the Deloitte question doesn’t really support your thesis here.
I bought an EV last month. My next purchase though will be an ICE car, since my car is the road trip car. I don’t want 2 EV’s. I want one EV. But not for my next car.
That 6% is consistent with overall market share approaching 10% over time.
You’re being too black-and-white here and every bit as bad as the “everyone needs an EV crowd.”
I think nobody wants one is similar to nobody thinks the earth is flat. Literally nobody on any topic is rarely true, but when 4% think the earth is flat and 6% want an EV despite an endless influence campaign and free money it’s safe to say nobody is a good approximation of reality.
If 1.2 million in one year is a close approximation of nothing, I’ll concede defeat. Even us finance guys don’t round like that.
Golf buggies, milk floats, airport cars, mobility scooters, segways, what else? What actual types of EVs are being bought, for use in what context, and by whom? Because at the costs described, it’s improbable that this is Joe Public consumers.
Too common on the roads now for it NOT to be Joe Public. Closing in on 10% market share. I’m fairly Joe Public, albeit an upper middle class one.
e-bikes, weed whackers, lawn edgers, lawn mowers, ladies vibrators….
Hey Brian, my wife and I have been fully electric for 2 years now, we live in the SE and neither car is a Tesla. We have taken several long trips, northern Arkansas and central Texas, in both cars with zero issues. Just takes a bit more planning and having a backup plan available. It also has taught us to enjoy the journey as much as the destination. We take more back roads for short cuts to DC chargers and have seen rural parts of our country we wouldn’t see on interstate travel. It’s been a total joy.
“As demand for electric vehicles stalled,”
Total BS false claim
US BEV new vehicle registrations were up over +50% in 2023 versus 2022
How us that stalled?
ICE registrations were up under 1^
The HERTZ NEWS IS COMPLETELY MISINTERPRETED>
These EVs were originally leased to ride hailing companies like Uber. They are typically 2 to 3 years old with 50,000 to 100000 miles Tesla model 3;s. Older and with more mileage than most used ICEs sold by Hertz
Hertz tried to redistribute them to Hertz offices in spite of th fact that they already had enough EVs there to meet demand
Hertz did not offer bargain prices for these EVs which were just compact cars to customers. In fact Hertz tried to rip off customers by charging a $35 recharging fee if the EV was returned with less charge than when driven off. That would make them more expensive than a similarly sized ICE.
I believe there was an additional fee if the EV brought back with under 20% or 10%of a fill charged.
US BEV sales boomed in 2023
Grow up and report reality.
Predictions are usually worthless.
EV sales data are real
About 1.4 million BEVs, PHEVs and HEVs were sold in 2023.
2024 sales are just speculation.
I will return to see if this post gets deleted
rather than refuted.
You have a hard time understanding the difference between nobody has and nobody wants. When determining what people want polling is kind of what you look at. Unless the poll is inaccurate which is of course possible the message is these cars are unwanted going forward. It would be weird to argue everyone wanted a ford pinto a year after they started catching fire and citing the pintos already on the road as your evidence.
I don’t now. What people want and what people purchase tend to be pretty doggone similar.
Last year everyone wanted a tickle me Elmo and lots were purchased. This year it’s no longer the hot toy. It’s not complicated. What people did in the past has zero to do with what they want today.
But they’re still buying them. Same monthly pace at over 100k BEV’s in December. Unless you’re saying you have access to January numbers that haven’t happened yet. I’ll trade you one Tickle Me Elmo for a Tesla charge adapter for a J1772 plug.
December was only 15 days ago. Things changed since December?
No, not true at all.
I want a million dollar house, but I have to settle for my 200k house.
I want an EV, but they are too expensive to justify the cost.
I want to go on vacation instead of work, but here I am working because I like eating.
What people want and what people purchase are often wildly divergent. They settle for less because of financial reality.
EV’s are wonderful but still expensive.
What wasn’t true? Just bought an EV for the equivalent of $43k cash price (leasing kind of screws with the numbers – you have to do a bit of math to figure out what you’re really paying). Not low end, but pretty far from the high end. Fully loaded, 4 door sedan. You can pick them up for right around the US average new car price of $48k or less. Or you can spend whale bucks. $15k over average starts getting competitive with the lower priced luxury brands. Not cheap, but available at average new car prices.
Granted wants are not desires, but the a) claim was that no one wanted them, and b) the survey that implied declining demand was more accurate than actual purchase data. Turns out December was a decent EV month after all at about the 8% market share. The numbers don’t seem to support either claim.
Polling is BS
There is no money on the line
People can virtue signal for EVs
or slam them
All irrelevant
Sales are real data
Your head is in the sand.
US BEV sales boomed in 2023
I make no predictions for 2024
The author’s claim that EV sales have stalled was a lie and maybe it was alie you wanted to hear
Sales data contradict that lie.
The polling could be accurate – if you ask someone with 2 cars in the household who bought an EV in the past few years what their next car will be, it’s probably not an EV – they probably don’t want two EVs even if they like the first one and would own it again. Of that 6%, if half would buy one again but needs an EV for the next car (replacing an ICE they already own essentially), then the 6% figure is fairly comparable to a 10% market share, which is where we are at. That said, PHEV probably makes sense for a larger number of people than BEV, which is why that’s where the growth is right now.
I tend to think polling is useful, but you have to understand the results from within the context in which the question was asked. It doesn’t always mean what it says at the first glance.
What sales data? Source?!
Cox Automotive is one. 8.1% EV market share in Q4. Kelly also tracks it. The December number might have come from marklines. All firms that specialize in automotive sales data. Also Argonne National Labs tracks the data oddly enough. Argonne gets their data from JD Power, Wards, manufacturers’ data, and other industry associations. No real reason I’d question sources really. Too easy to catch errors when registrations data comes out later.
Most people wanted to keep their horse and buggy 125 years ago too.
Indeed. There will be a transition, this time by government force.
People dropped the horse and buggy by choice.
The entire world is transitioning to electric. Fossil Fuels for autos and light duty trucks is not sustainable for the future, battery electric is the far superior technology. Carmakers cannot compete in China or Europe unless they sell electric. So goes those markets, so goes the US market. Nobody in government forcing anyone to buy an EV. Build a non-electric car that satisfies the emission standards and you’re good to go.
“I will return to see if this post gets deleted rather than refuted.”
And what will you do if neither happens?
I’m always amused when people make silly statements such as these.
I have had a post published here critical of an article that WAS later deleted.
Conservatives censor too.
Again, if your post gets deleted what will you do?
It’s assuming that people get bent outta shape when they get censored by a non-governmental entity. If this blog doesn’t meet your fancy then stop giving Mish money by visiting it.
Easy Peasy
Funny thing is that what Mish wrote is not even what the Deloitte piece said. It said growth and momentum were slowing (not reversing or that sales were in any sense declining).
Sounds like you are doing “cope”.
50% of what? 10,000?
1% of what? 10,000,000?
“Do the math”… then do your misinformation or disingenuous misinterpretation.
– Hertz announced it would be selling about a third of its global electric vehicle fleet, reversing course on several big bets it had placed on EV’s.
– The move seemingly followed the rest of the auto industry, which has quickly shifted its position on EV’s after years of aggressive plans and projections, with several automakers cutting production of vehicles or reducing prices as inventory has built up in recent months.
In October, GM and Honda announced that they were canceling plans to jointly develop affordable EV’s in the face of slowing demand.
Hertz CEO Stephen Scherr told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday that the company’s move, which followed large purchase orders of Tesla and GM EVs, was “responding to the reality, which is we’re trying to bring supply in line with demand.”
“The reality of EVs and Tesla’s being the best-selling car will, at some point, render them the best rental car,” Scherr said. “It’s not yet, so we may have been ahead of ourselves in the context of how quickly that will happen, but that will happen.”
Hertz said it would be selling about 20,000 electric vehicles. It would then use some of those proceeds to buy internal combustion engine cars. The company would also be taking a $245 million incremental net depreciation expense as a result.
“Maintenance costs are higher”
Can you please provide details for this claim?
Sure “Readers might have heard that lower maintenance costs are a major electric-vehicle advantage. As Hertz discovered, the opposite it true.”
Hertz blamed maintenance costs along with lack of demand for punting on EVs. Good enough?
It would be helpful to me quantify those costs.
My understanding is that the electric motors last longer than ICEs and the brakes tires and grease and such are the same, so I wonder if lack of usage causes batteries to degrade more rapidly and this creates an extra cost.
For me, Just quoting Hertz’s PR machine lacks the substance that I have come to appreciate from MishTalk. I can appreciate lack of demand driving Hertz’s strategy (See what I did there? 🙂
I am still curious “what are the maintenance costs?”
A good percentage of collisions apparently lead to battery replacements at huge costs. They are built into the frame. So you don’t have oil changes at 75 bucks or so on EV’s but even a few battery replacements in the fleet makes maintaining ICE vehicles look cheaper.
Kind of apples to oranges though. Those are accident costs not maintenance. If you were going to compare, you’d look at the next difference in just the maintenance bit, and then add in the differential in insurance that’s just due to the EV and not due to the materials in the coach itself (costly aluminum/composites). EV’s is maybe just a bit higher. It added around $100 to my cost. Most of the increase in Tesla’s insurance relates to the aluminum bodies. Even a minor fender bender that doesn’t impact the battery can total a Series 3 if the body repair involves a lot of aluminum work. You can’t pull aluminum straight once it bends.
—
Fast charging causes increased battery wear, the same as with the same technology batteries in cellphones.
As others have noted – Hertz included damage and repair in their costs. That’s not maintenance. There’s just no way actual maintenance is higher, though accident repair is absolutely higher on aluminum bodied cars like the Hertz fleet. Some of the repair cost increase isn’t even directly EV related.
So, no, not really good enough. This is too sloppy. You’re smarter than that, which is why I read this stuff.
Hey Mike, that’s not really any type of quantification. You’re just repeating the statement from hertz. Data would be useful.
I don’t have data. Nor do you have data to dispute.
That was a reason they gave and it seems reasonable to me.
Bear in mind that rental drivers are not the most careful and they likely don’t have much experience with EVs, learning on the spot in unfamiliar places.
Yes, I do agree that rental drivers are not the most careful and a poor demographic to put behind the wheel of an EV for a short term duration in an unfamiliar area. Hertz’s little EV project was doomed to fail. Anyone with any sort of experience driving an EV knew it would fail. I would be happy to send you my receipts for wiper fluid, cabin filters and wiper blades over the last 3 years if you like. That’s all the data I have and all the data pretty much most EV drivers have, save Ann except new tires which I haven’t needed yet. Fortunately, I don’t have any Oil Change receipts to show you over my 45,000 of electric driving, which at every 3,000 miles would’ve been 15 oil changes if I drove a Dino-mobile. How much does an oil change cost, I forgot? I also don’t have any receipts for brake work since with regenerative braking I rarely even touch my brakes. Sorry, no receipts for tune ups, radiator flushes, transmission, fuel/water pumps, alternator, or belt work either.
– Demand for EV’s is crashing in the US. Only six percent want an EV for their next vehicle but 67 percent want an ICE.
> Now that the hype, tricks, and false truths, are behind us, the Real Truth finally gets told!
– Eight Inconvenient EV Truths
EVs are more expensive
EVs are inconvenient for anyone who needs a public charger
EVs are inconvenient for anyone who drives long distances
Insurance costs are higher
Maintenance costs are higher
Repairs take longer and parts are in short supply
Minor accidents can be very costly requiring a new battery
Consumers don’t want the damn things and rightfully so
Those are the inconvenient facts.
> I couldn’t agree more with that list, and I myself have been hyping 1,2,3,6 & 8 for the better part of a year!
– In addition, people have legitimate concerns over many things including fires, battery recycling, minerals and mining, and whether EVs do anything positive for the environment at all.
> All very legitimate concerns and answers are not at all forthcoming.
– Despite the inconvenient facts, the US and EU governments are hell bent on pushing everyone they can into EVs.
> They made many, many deals with many, many Corporations and are panicking that they just crushed this industry, and maybe for a decade or more. That would make sense to start over in about 10 years, and use that time wisely. Like start focusing on Infrastructure and Cost Points for starters!
– The sad reality is a Green utopia will never exist. Meanwhile, the US and EU are Quietly Killing Vital Industries.
> Reality bites sometimes.
– Finally, in China where EVs are soaring, China is still rapidly adding coal power plants to produce the needed electricity. Hooray?
> Isn’t that just perfect, and says it ALL!!!
5 of the 8 are facts. 1 is wrong (that maintenance costs are higher), 1 is opinion that isn’t supported by purchase behavior (that no one wants them). 1 is both right and wrong depending on how you measure cost – over the life or up front.
One that surprised me – my insurance was remarkably inexpensive. Up $100 vs the older volvo it replaced. New EV is cheaper than a 14 year old Porsche at least.
but similar customer base… I guess they can buy the EV as a carbon offset so they can drive around in their Porsche when nobody’s looking.
That cost of fixing your EV is likely being socialized in the insurance rate. EV’s are expensive to repair after collisions. ICE vehicles hit EV’s so make everyone pay?
To a degree, but insurance companies are pretty good at pricing out risk, so I’m not sure. It’s a good question that would be fun to understand though.
Hertz blamed maintenance costs along with lack of demand for bailing on EVs.
– Forbes States: EV Sales Pace Is Running Short Of Power Going Into 2024. The proof is a combination of hard numbers and harder
decisions by some of the major automakers. Those decisions include General Motors Co. slowing plans for new EV introductions and delaying the rollout of a new generation Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV until 2025 and Ford Motor Co. cutting production of its F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck by 50% at the start of 2024.
– EV Cost is higher up front, on average, Vs. Equivalent GV Cost. (Sticker Cost, minus money back programs of any sort)
And
– EV Cost is higher over life, on average, Vs. Equivalent GV Cost. (Insurance, Maintenance, Disposal, Charging, Upgrades etc.).
Well then, we’ll just have to make owning an ICE hell for everyone.
If only voting wasn’t a thing huh?
You will own nothing and be happy.
I can see the adoption of EVs going a bit slower than some expect but 75% of Americans drive less than 40 miles a day round trip to work and around an urban area. Once the charge time is below 20 minutes and range on a full charge hits 400 miles EVs become viable. Especially for 2 vehicle families. Same with solar for home as 4 years ago I priced home panels $63,000 and just got a new price of $22,000 – 7500 tax credit. Solar panels for home should now be viable without any tax credit and EVs will hit that point quicker than the home panels have.
If you are considering solar for your home, make sure you talk to your home insurance company about it.
I live in Florida and mentioned to my insurance agency I was thinking of going rooftop solar and they said it would affect my rates. At least here in Florida the insurance company is going to charge more because of the distinct possibility the system gets damaged in a hurricane like storm or it some how isn’t installed right and causes a roof leak (new roof) or causes an electrical fire etc.
Hadn’t thought about Florida, but in CO in wildfire country there are risks that need to be mitigated. I tell people that the only time to put solar on a roof in the WUI (Wildland Urban Interface) is when you’re putting on a new roof. Then, if you want solar, put on a steel or other more fire resistant roof.
I could see roof panels in Florida becoming flying guillotines easily enough. Makes sense.
Yes, I will not put them on my Florida home. Georgia home I’m going to.
CA seems to be working hard to kill solar energy juggernaut here. Business is down significantly. Left-over supply might be why your quote is so much less.
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California Has Dealt a Blow to Renewable Energy, Some Businesses Say
Some companies are leaving the state or reducing their presence there after California greatly reduced incentives for homeowners to install rooftop solar panels.
By Ivan Penn
Jan. 14, 2024
California has long championed renewable energy, but a change in the state’s policies last year has led to a sharp decline in the installation of residential rooftop solar in the state.
Thousands of companies — including installers, manufacturers and distributors — are reeling from the new policy, which took effect in April and greatly reduced incentives that had encouraged homeowners to install solar panels. Since the change, sales of rooftop solar installations in California dropped as much as 85 percent in some months of 2023 from a year earlier, according to a report by Ohm Analytics, a research firm that tracks the solar marketplace. Industry groups project that installations in the state will drop more than 40 percent this year and continue to decline through 2028.
“The solar installations are off a ton,” said Michael Wara, a senior research scholar at Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. “What’s happening right now is a painful adjustment process.”
Construct Sun, a solar installation company that is based in Reno, Nev., stopped doing business in California after its sales dried up four months after the policy began; executives said the company was now focusing its efforts on Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.
…
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/14/business/energy-environment/california-rooftop-solar.html
How about last vehicle? An EV hearse, possibly with a free cremation included.
How are maintainence costs higher for EVs?
They are lower
Repair costs are usually not included with maintenance costs especially if still under warranty.
How are they lower?
I don’t know one way or the other.
The maintenance estimates often come from the manufacturers or some group that supports EV. Is it wise to take figures from those two sources at face value?
It’s the equivalent of the mpg ratings you see on ICE vehicles. They aren’t accurate and do not reflect reality.
They should be quite a bit lower. No oil changes, no fluid changes other than batter coolant at 30k on some cars and maybe brake fluid. You use the electric motors to both stop and start, so no brake wear to speak of if you’ve set the car up to drive like an EV instead of a traditional car. There’s just very little that actually needs to be done (and a major reason I bought one – my wife doesn’t keep track of maintenance items on her car as religiously as I do, so it saves arguments.)
For most EV’s, it’s tires and wiper blades only in the first 100k miles.
The big one I can think of is battery replacment. Tires wear faster on EVs as well.
Oil changes in modern ICE vehicles last alot longer. 5,000-7,000 miles per change.
Modern coolant in ICE vehicles is generally good for 100,000 miles. Brakes need changing between 40,000 and 50,000 on an ICE vehicles depending on driving habits.
ICE transmission fluid exchanges are good for 60k in most modern vehicles.
I could see the battery being an issue, but that’s 10+ years away. In that amount of time, you’ve likely done
Approaching $4-5k total depending on how expensive the brake sets are and if you like synthetic oil rather than the cheap stuff.
Tires wear marginally worse due to weight, but not terrible. It should be more or less pro rata with the extra 10%-15% or so in weight. Rivian particularly has issues, but those are user-driven. God save you if you bought the 10,000 pound Hummer.
The numbers still don’t add up to being worse than an ICE.
They are heavy SOB’s though.
I’m failing to see how your estimated $4,000 – $5,000 in ICE maintenance costs over 100,000 miles comes remotely close to reolacing an EV battery, which $10,000 and up. Assuming you can get a replacment.
Because the odds are you won’t be replacing the battery within 100k miles. They should last at least 10 years, but the actual full life cycle beyond that is as yet not fully understood. “At least 10 years” is the best people can say and not all that different than a transmission for example.
They quoted roughly $5k to replace a battery on my car in the event it failed, but in present value terms with 10 years to go that’s about $35/month which is right around what I spend on oil changes alone. ($75-80 every 3 months or so).
Offset the cost of the battery with the non-zero chance of needing a transmission, engine/trans control module (they fail often due to heat) or engine replacement, and it’s probably a lot less of a difference vs ICE than folks think.
So even at $10k, that’s only $70 a month which with tuneups, oil changes, timing belts, fluids, batteries etc isn’t that much higher. If you took all the money you spent on maintenance and invested it, you’d have most of the money you’d need to replace the battery sitting in savings – and still not likely need to replace the battery.
Forgot to add – for me, the battery has a lifetime warranty, so it doesn’t even factor into the equation. For me, it’s just straight savings.
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With normal driving, Mobil 1 synthetic is good for a year or 20k miles, whichever comes first, according to the company. 6 quarts are $33 at Costco on their regular sales (my car takes 4.5 quarts) and a filter runs $7 or so. I pay $30 labor to have someone do the change.
Consumer Reports has the average annual cost as $900 for EVs versus $1200 for an ICE. So they are lower on average according to them. But good luck getting definitive figures.
For example, I was looking to see how often Tesla drive belts need to be replaced and came across this:
“Our experts found that over five years, the owner of a Tesla Model 3 can expect to spend an estimated $3,115 on maintenance, or $623 annually. That’s slightly higher than many gas-powered competitors. For example, maintenance for the Genesis G70 costs $2,621 over five years.”
https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/maintaining-your-tesla/
Here’s my anecdotal data:
My bought-new 2003 Mazda Protege has cost a total of $7909 in maintenance costs, or a bit less than $400 / year. That includes replacing the AC compressor and other AC system components (which can happen on any car) when it seized after 15+ years. The other components didn’t necessarily have to be replaced but rather than waiting to find out if they were damaged I just told the shop to go ahead and do it. That plus an oil change was nearly $1500 for my single biggest repair expense. The Protege was built in Japan and the reliability has been phenomenal. Tires are the single largest expense category for me and, as the article linked above noted, they wear faster on EVs due to weight and they are more costly than what my car requires.
The numbers can be spun any way one likes.
I wouldn’t mind having an EV, But charging is the biggest issue, even at home as I do not have a garage. There is no way I will run a live cord to the car exposed outside and assume the potential liability issue.
Hertz actually said in a press release the EV maintenance costs were lower but the repair costs were surprisingly high.
See my comment elsewhere on it being related to being aluminum bodies. It’s not just the EV component. AL bodies are hideously expensive to repair.
I suppose you could use the bicycle analogy. Cycling is much healthier and cheaper then driving, and better for the environment (assuming it’s practical to do). Until you have an accident and all those savings and health benefits get wiped out, plus a lot more.
yes, but in reality, most people use multiple modes of transport in multiple different contexts and use cases.
They arent. You hardly ever touch the brakes, no oil changes, no transmissions to service, though some models need battery coolant changed every 30k.
There’s just no way this can be right.
Hertz is essentially also factoring in repair costs as part of maintenance. Those are extremely expensive on an EV.
parts and labour… parts means supply chains, and labour means training, and cost-of-living driven up by synthetic “inflation” (e.g.: things like minimum wage price floors).
Hertz in their 8k references repair costs. Whether you want to call that maintenance or not it’s a real expense, and it would be illegal not to mention senseless for them to lie in their filing.
“ expenses related to collision and damage, primarily associated with EVs, remained high in the quarter, thereby supporting the Company’s decision to initiate the material reduction in the EV fleet.”
I can see collision costs being a lot higher if the fleet is largely Tesla. That has more going on there than it being an EV though – aluminum bodies are horrible to try to repair. On my ICE car, you can’t even weld in new panels well – it’s all high tech adhesives and other things my banker brain doesn’t get. My gut having talked with a shop that repairs them is that the it’s the body that’s responsible for most of the cost in most accidents (most are run of the mill fender benders that should cost 10k but end up costing 20k due to the aluminum.)
I think that’s why my steel-bodied EV wasn’t that expensive to insure.
For EVs in the abstract, They’re only higher if you include battery replacement as a maintenance item. If you do that, then yes…..
If you don’t do that, they’re only higher because you’re not comparing like-for-like: BEVs primarily exist in the first place, because the hacks slapping them together, could not even remotely hope to hack it at producing real cars. SO they did what such hacks always do in totalitarian societies: They got totalitarian government to favor them.
The BEVs on the road, aren’t exactly Toyota Corollas, to put it mildly. There’s probably more quality engineering and QA in just the bolts holding a Corolla together, than it is combined between all of the the Tesla and sundry Chinese EV startups’ in total. And that’s not about to change: Tesla, as always, is in the business of selling paper to Fed Welfare Queens. “Product” is just a marketing expense. The third biggest one, after lobbying and hype peddling. While if the Chinese could compete with Toyota at quality, they would have done so in regular cars as well. The can’t. Not by a long shot. At least not for another decade or two.
I’m not sure even then it’s really more in maintenance once you convert the $5-10k expense 10 or more years from now into a stream of monthly/quarterly payments beginning now. When I did the rough math, the oil changes alone on my car roughly would cover the battery cost in 10-11 years. Easily cover it if you toss in brakes.
Should have added-my car’s battery has a lifetime warranty, so that doesn’t really factor into my maintenance cost. Someone else brought up Tesla’s drive belt system. That’s legit, but I don’t think most EV’s use that kind of system. I think most are direct drive through a single gear set.
“…the $5-10k expense 10 or more years…”
But you don’t know if it is instead $25K in 7-8 years… Or even, if it will be available at all, after one too many fires renders the packs uninsurable, and perhaps even the cars unparkable in underground structures.
Everything BEV is uncertain. The tech for one. Outright resource constraints for another.
But also: The current complete disconnect between costs and prices.
Subsidies, “encouragements”, mandates and “official goals” completely prevent any real price discovery. So does, to an even greater extent, infinite free money handed to the dumbest of the dumb; who know no better than blindly falling for every silly hype and “funding” it with stolen trillions transferred their way. In the process covering up any possible ability to learn whether the things can realistically be built profitably.
BEV companies have zero incentives to be economically rational, hence aren’t. In their world, they can just say “future” and “Flash Gordon” and “abracadabra”, and they’ll be made “billionaires” simply by virtue of serving as convenient useful idiots for the Fed facilitated “ownership society” retards classes who are told they “made money from their home” and “inveeestments.”
Add it all up, and there is zero reliable forward guidance able to independently outlive what is currently just a silly hype show. People simply have nothing reliable to base estimates about future anything BEV on. Doesn’t matter if it is battery pack replacement prices, or for that matter battery pack availability in 7-10 years. Or charging standards. Or if the Fed enabled at-best-semi-literate hype peddlers currently cluttering up Davos will be on to the next bunch of idiots-only drivel and childish hero worship by then; leaving the current BEV and Musk cycle just another neglected dead end.
In an environment like that, why not just go for something proven instead. Sure, if the subsidies are outsized enough, as they seem to be in Norway and perhaps China, rolling the dice may be worth it. But anywhere else; why bother when more predictable alternatives are so easy to come by.