Retail Recovery Limbo
Please consider recovery in limbo as retail traffic falls.
U.S. states that have driven a record surge in coronavirus cases may now be slipping backward here in their economic recovery, as cellphone data shows retail visits in a clutch of high case-growth locations falling below the rest of the country.
In Arizona, Texas, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, which had edged ahead of other states during their drive in May to reopen commerce, retail foot traffic has slipped below levels elsewhere, information from data firm Unacast showed.
The data, which covers the period through July 3, is not representative of retail sales. But it does highlight the dilemma many economists and health experts have raised from the earliest days of the outbreak of novel coronavirus: Inattention to health protocols like wearing of masks and social distancing combined with a rush to reopen businesses could lead to worse outcomes for both public health and the economy.
“A mismanaged health crisis across many states means short-term gains will transform into medium-term sluggishness as social distancing relaxation is reversed and virus fear lingers,” Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in an analysis on Thursday. “It’s now evident that the economy is entering Q3 (third quarter) with much less momentum than previously anticipated.”
Nationally, cellphone tracking data from both Unacast here and Safegraph here showed retail visits were stalled or falling. Time management firm Homebase here showed employment among its small business clients hit a plateau, while clients of Kronos here which manages employee time across a larger swath of industries, showed a drop in shifts.
Sales are slowing and the recovery in jobs may have too, based on unemployment claims.
For discussion, please see State Claims Decline But All Unemployment Claims Are on the Rise
Mish
Sort of off-topic… Cataluña daily and 14 day cases, green line is end of lockdown
Via Matthew Bennett
I’m confused. The chart shows a 0.6% decrease Y-o-Y in foot traffic, but there were so many retailers closed during that time. I would expect at least a 50% decrease in foot traffic for April.
Once PPP ended, I permanently eliminated 2 jobs. That was in late June. I never did any temporary layoffs.
can’t figure this one out — is it bullish or bearish?
Everything is bullish. Drown the virus in liquidity.
Dow 100 million.
Getting more and more bullish.
Mish is now doing more winning than the President.
OK. Now replicate that graph at the top of this@Mish posting with a random set of 5 states. And do that a few times. Then you’ll be able to calibrate anything shown on this particular table.
Similarly, individual states, e.g. New York, are imposing two-week self-quarantine requirements on residents visiting from specified states. How can this be enforced? Not that I’m opposed to it, as my state (Idaho) has been inundated by folks from neighboring states (primarily Washington) trying to get out of their places of residence for a vacation or just a chance to be outside, but they’re bringing their friends (coronavirus) with them. Well documented.
Will the United States become less united? Will border controls be implemented at state borders? Already my home state had told visitors from a neighboring state to stay home. Weird times.
In europe EU law on travel re. epidemic is not binding so there are different formats taking shape that are logical but incoherent to a centralised plan, and added to this is the changing picture within countries. In rough order of importance people are concerned about 1 not getting locked down again 2 tourism and economy 3 having to figure out and deal with what their government and restrictions are about. Those are interchangeable, depending. Strange times, wears down on people and society as well.
“…wears down on people and society as well.”
And in the US they got guns. I see ‘rebellion’ all over the place, from both poles of the political spectrum.
That sentiment exists in many countries in europe also, though the population are generally moderate there is tension, and “an angry mob is an angry mob”, if they start here then it would get out of hand fast. Migration is a particular flashpoint, but that leads directly to the opposing government policies that exist with regard, and the rest of the policy arguments that exist. Each country is different, in UK you have BLM and associated arguments with, in Spain currently members of government are suggesting nationalising two million migrants , in france it is riots in ghettos and yellow vests, Italy has its differences , so do others. It would have to get quite desperate for it to go up in flames somewhere, but you add in unemployment and bureaucratic incompetence and I would be surprised if one country or more in europe did not have a large breakdown in order in the coming year or two. In the US you have the national guard and one basic set of differences, in europe you have EU without authority at this level and however many countries each with distinct arguments and governments that are often seen as incompetent that are not respected as they are, that are not in a position to call in the use of force without making everything a whole lot worse.
“And in the US they got guns. I see ‘rebellion’ all over the place, from both poles of the political spectrum.”
You’re too optimistic wrt your fellow American. We may have a few more peashooters than the average shackled European, but we ain’t no Taliban by any stretch.
It wouldn’t take much in the way of guns, for Idaho’s inundation by outsiders, as well as “Hey Millie, it’s so cool; we’re like social distancing now, by traveling across 4 states on a coughing tour, to look at “real estate” and cough some on people in places where people are less contagious than where we are from!!” in general, to come to a screeching halt real quick… And with it, the increased rate of contagion spread.
Shackled in some ways, but in others less so. You don’t see people protesting migrants (or ostensibly new arrivals in obligatory quarantine) like this in the US for example
For sure. There was a time when the US genuinely was a freer country than most others. But that hasn’t been the case for a long time.
We do still have marginally more freedom to own and bear arms. But at the same time, we also have the most militarized police, and best equipped standing army anywhere outside of Israel. And as far as freedom is concerned, it is the delta n armaments between the state and the people which matters, not just the absolute amount of guns people have.
And aside from that, we are paying at least no less effective taxes than anywhere else now. It’s not as if mandates to pay someone are any different from a direct tax. We pay more fines, spend more time in jail, and a subject to more police harassment than in most of Europe. And that’s not even counting the at least 20 to 1 greater extent to which are harassed by ambulance chasers backed up by government….
Add it all up, and it’s not even clear we have any more de facto freedoms left than even the Chinese. We are ahead in some areas, lie gun ownership and perhaps freedom of at least some form of speech. But well behind in de facto economic freedom, which is why their companies are free out innovate and out produce ours despite being burdened with a communist government.
“and perhaps freedom of at least some form of speech.”
Sure, if your speech agrees with the ‘woke’ agenda. Just because our government doesn’t do the censoring doesn’t mean there is no censorship.
I’m fully aware of that. Pretending “we” have free speech just because the leeches hauling you to court for speaking, aren’t nominally on government payroll, is an obfuscation so transparent you’d think even the indoctrinati would catch on. But it seems they don’t. Sadly.
It’s up there the same less-than-literates claiming “we” have some sort of “free market” health care. Just because the Newspeakers calling what we are forced to pay a “mandate” instead of a tax…..
Or that we have some sort of a housing “market”, despite the government running around telling people who are allowed to build what where…. Again, it’s so transparent a three year old of average or above intelligence can’t fail to see the idiocy of it. Yet, the drones keep droning to the bent-over beat, just as told by Massa and his propaganda ministry.
I do think speech is an area where we may still have the tiniest of legs up on China, though. In at least some respects. If a Chinese Mish, and his commenters, wrote about Xi what he/they write about Trump, I don’t think the site would stay up long.
But yes, it is pretty sad day, when you’re down to picking favorites among turds in a sewer, as that’s all you’ve got left…
“……produce ours despite being burdened with a communist government.”
That is how I figured it also, except europe has changed a lot these last couple decades and is increasingly empty of direction or of sentiment .
There is one difference with right to arms though that I noticed, this is from thinking through various personal experience of confrontation with others. In anglo society, more so in US, any argument comes down to how the other will react. When others have arms, well you make sense and think through your approach, because the other might take your life if you are too stupid. The US is a bit paranoid like that, but there is at least some sense to it, because people know the limits between each other. Maybe it also makes action by state pre-emptive also, which would be a negative. In europe I have come across unbelievable amounts of stupidity and irresponsible attitude. At base is both the idea that “you can’t hurt me” (why would I want to? – but respect of others is a good thing) , and added to that the fact that to call in intervention both everyone loses and the lesser loser is the one who is most manipulative with that intervention. The result is a very tedious waste of time and drawn out uncertainty, where one will feel permanently menaced on top of any insult – menaced because the other can make sure you lose even if you have done no wrong, with little danger of great loss to themselves . Where there are arms, well to be like this towards another is to ask for a bullet, and when you have someone being stupid towards you, you can stare them down because you know you are actually sparing their life by not reacting. That attitude of “sense” must transfer through to the legal system to an extent also.
So fast forward to any say being increasingly in the hands of the state, whether by increasing superiority of force or whatever manipulation, and it just gets corrupted, because authorities take their superiority for granted, and society becomes their experiment. They are able to walk around offering the solutions they choose uncontested, because they “own” the system. Moderation of the use of force just becomes use of force in moderation . I think in the US Waco is used as an example of “how not to challenge authority” ? Even after that though, anyone presuming over someone else’s affairs will be aware that if they overdo it, the other has the ability to hit back. People aren’t out to be martyrs much, but it does make a difference in the balance of power as experienced by both sides, because literally (somewhere) it is understood that any unreasonable action and the resulting use of force is in the hands of both parties, even if one is heavily outnumbered. One thing about the anglo legal system is that because it is based on common law principles there is a greater sense of arbitration rather than what exists in the rest of europe, which is Roman based and more instructional to any mandate.
So in the US this all gets lived in a different way, verging on make believe, whereas in europe it tends to start with make believe verging towards true confrontation. Authorities are (or get) so used to handling all sides to any reality, they actually believe their placebo concepts are able to mislead whole parts of society because that is (the only visible) option people take part in. How people feel though is often very different, and attempts at diluting or subverting any base or raw movement are not guaranteed. Government used to be in touch with this kind of sentiment, they got so good at manipulating it that they seem to think they own it, that they are cleverererer. They don’t though, and they aren’t, because at the end of the day people’s lives are not there to be made a show of, and resentments created become indefinitely and often inflexibly engrained in the attitudes people hold, sometimes to very bad effect.
Regarding free speech, at least in the US it is understood what the concept means, and there are strong defenders of it. In various countries of europe people get silenced, they know how far against the grain is permitted, and if they go too far too publicly they get attention and not just from the general public. So that mostly only leaves mass protest where there is safety in numbers and a degree of anonymity, at least that is what I have observed.
It isn’t all bad either but I am comparing evolution. Once a person comes up against these concepts they don’t forget it, many just try to get as much as they can out of whatever system exists , but once expectations turn negative then even those people get upset.
“A mismanaged crisis…”
Short of apologising for anyone, but there are many economic distortions around because of the pandemic, the idea that economically one way or another of approaching the epidemic is better is subjective. So for example, north Africa has had relatively few cases, Morrocco around 20 000 or something, same Algeria, if figures are correct. They are keeping land borders closed indefinitely, three million Morroccans will not visit their relatives this year, just a much fewer number via flights with pcr test (majority drove from north europe previously). There goes a whole load of economic activity to safeguard Morrocco. E.g.
Spain had months of lockdown and it was late with that, but even so, after opening with a relatively low background of infection now infections are increasing noticeably. Baleares will oblige everyone to wear masks, will it make a difference to the economy, in which direction? It depends, as does how much of Spain goes back into lockdown, how much people will stand of that, because obviously protest and social disruption are not generally positive for economic activity either.
So trying to judge this all is close to impossible.