Negotiation Tactics
The ultimate deadline is the end of the year. Is there still time for a deal of any kind?
Eurointelligence comments Maybe They are Not Negotiating After All.
Philippe Lamberts MEP shared an interesting snippet of information about the state of the Brexit negotiations. Don’t take it for granted that we are in a final stretch. While it appears that negotiations are going on, this is pure illusion. The British are not negotiating, he said. This corroborates our take last week. Lamberts confirmed that these talks did not just end a day early. They actually broke down.
Lamberts was a member of the Brexit steering group in the European Parliament, which accompanied the first part of the Brexit negotiations. We think he may have first-hand knowledge of the state of the current negotiations. In an interview, he said the negotiations were only for show, to give the appearance that something is happening when it is not. And he said the UK government was not really interested in a deal.
We agree with Lamberts that the UK is not being serious. But we also think that the EU wasted five months with a proposal that was objectively unreasonable, like the ECJ power grab. The EU has systematically misjudged UK politics, and is only now slowly coming to terms with Brexit. Both sides have strong incentives to make a deal. But we believe that both sides really need to hear the ticking clock. They are not hearing it now, but we believe they will hear the ticks more clearly by September.
EU Overplays Its Hand
The EU demanded the UK bow down to the European Court of Justice, give up fishing rights for nothing, and agree to some freedom of movement clauses that triggered Brexit in the first place.
Once again, the EU demanded too much from the UK and once again Boris Johnson politely told the EU where to go.
Boris Johnson politely said go to hell.
I believe a minimal deal is in the best interests of the UK and the EU. Details can come later as there is no time for details now.
Details aside, it is not the EU’s place to insist on the piss poor deal they tried to cram down Theresa May’s throat.
Johnson has made it clear that will not fly.
Mish
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This talk of “there isn’t time”, is utter hogwash. These institutionalised muppets (on both sides), have had YEARS to behave like adults and get it done, details included.
Whether it’s disbelief, incompetence, or lack of will I can’t say, but if they worked in the private sector, heads would have rolled and progress would have been made years ago.
I expect a last minute “temporary” fudge to maintain existing trading terms between EU/UK for a bit longer – but without ongoing membership payments from UK. This is permitted under WTO and still allows UK to negotiate our own deals with US, Australia, Canada, Japan etc, etc. Barnier will be offerred “early retirement” and told to take it.
This is a good article on the issues.
As has been regularly pointed out since Brexit was first pushed for in 2016 – the retarded “Contra os Bretoes” Greco-Roman southern EU never came on board what the European Union stood for and never gave tens of thousands of keen on the EU British any chance to effectively occupy in their countries.
These retards caused Brexit and now are keen on further damaging the UK in Brexit negotiations. Unlike the Frugal northern EU which takes 80% of UK trade, none of the retards individually do any noticeable two way business with the UK.
The UK is obviously ahead of the game – not least in allowing 3 million+ EU citizens (most from the retarded south) opportunities to progress themselves in ways both denied to the British, and impossible to achieve by themselves, in their own countries.
“I believe a minimal deal is in the best interests of the UK and the EU. Details can come later as there is no time for details now.”
I do as well but I’m not sure how likely it’ll be. The EU will want one as a form of extension, to kick the can down the road so we’re further into Boris’s term in parliament. They’re desperate to ensure it doesn’t look as if “we’ve got our cake”, even if they’re worse off as a result. They’ll also want us to keep contributing. Whereas we want to get it resolved early in the Parliament so we can move on.
It’s pretty clear there are no negotiations.
The sooner both sides understand a depression has started the better. Not a recession, a depression.
Rules and regulations won’t end it, only trade or total war will.
The same Barnnier that signed off on the Wuhan lab against French Intelligence.
Says it all.
EU hasn’t purged itself of the need to dictate and thats understandable given the history having come out of life under Hitler, Mussolini, Franco, Communism etc. They don’t realise they are doing it, little self awareness.
I miss Avid Remainer. Said no one ever.
Avid Remainer had a platform for speaking his/her mind. Unfortunately for him/her, all his/her predictions were wrong, and Mish was right on every one, so he/she vanished without a trace.
It’s being reported that Boris has already told Mutti that the UK is ready to go with no deal and some same sort of agreements as Australia has with the EU.
The EU’s top Brexit negotiator is Michel Barnier. He’s already been caught out on tape ridiculing the U.K. Why is he even still on the EU’s negotiation team?
Difference is to give ECJ credence on trade matters with which it can gain position by projecting to EU countries that it has authority over a trade partner, or trading with reduced conditions and having ECJ and EU negotiators try to justify to EU countries any future stance they should take for EU trade relations to carry authority. So right choice in my opinion to not cede to ECJ oversight.
Simply the arrogance of assumed power-hungry elites (the EU). I’m rooting for the UK.
The EU want to dictate terms not negotiate. If they maintain that stance we’ll revert to WTO terms at the end of the year.
Great analysis Mish. Britain has larger problems to deal with right now than trade.
Demand for keeping fishing quota as before, ECJ as arbitrator and punishing the UK with future tarifs if EU rules are not followed.
Level playing field is another ridicules EU demand.
I begg to differ: The EU is not really negotiating.
Thank goodness there is CANZUK, an important matter being worked on quietly.
At least Spain dropped demands on Gibraltar for now, even though Gibraltar citizen voted vastly in favor to stay an over seas territory in the early 2000’s.
Sounds like a realistic assessment of the current state of play.