PPI service prices, which the Fed is more concerned about, are not headed in the right direction. 
The BLS report the Producer Price Index was rose 0.2 percent in October but the details are unsettling.
PPI Final Demand Key Detail Month-Over-Month
- PPI: +0.2 Percent
- Services: +0.3 Percent
- Goods: +0.1 Percent
- Excluding Food and Energy: +0.3 Percent
- Food: -0.2 Percent
- Energy: -0.3 Percent
Despite declines in food and energy, the PPI was up 0.2 percent.
Goods Details
- An 8.4-percent increase in the index for carbon steel scrap was a major factor in the advance in prices for final demand goods.
- The indexes for meats, diesel fuel, fresh and dry vegetables, and oilseeds also moved higher.
- Prices for liquefied petroleum gas fell 18.1 percent.
- The indexes for chicken eggs, processed poultry, and ethanol also decreased.
Services Details
- Over three-fourths of the broad-based advance in October is attributable to prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing, which moved up 0.3 percent.
- The indexes for final demand transportation and warehousing services and for final demand trade services also increased, 0.5 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively.
- Over one-third of the rise in the index for final demand services can be traced to prices for portfolio management, which advanced 3.6 percent.
- The indexes for machinery and vehicle wholesaling; airline passenger services; computer hardware, software, and supplies retailing; outpatient care (partial); and cable and satellite subscriber services also moved higher.
- Margins for apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing fell 3.7 percent.
- Prices for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services and for truck transportation of freight also declined.
PPI Year-Over-Year
PPI Final Demand Year-Over-Year Details
- PPI: +2.4 Percent
- Goods: +0.2 Percent
- Services: +3.5 Percent
- Food: 2.7 Percent
- Excluding Food and Energy: 3.1 Percent
- Energy: -8.6
The year-over-year trends are inching up despite a massive drop in energy.
PPI Services
PPI Services are 67.2 percent of the PPI.
Trade, Transportation, and Warehousing are are 24.1percent of the PPI.
CPI Rises 0.2 Percent But Another Hot Month for Shelter
Yesterday, I reported CPI Rises 0.2 Percent But Another Hot Month for Shelter
The Fed will have a tough go of things if there is lack of progress on the cost of shelter.
Neither the CPI nor the PPI reports should inspire confidence in a mass of rate cuts by the Fed.
This economy lacks various doctors, prison guards, cops, state troopers, ship builders, and a host of factory workers. I would expect that services/labor inflation is going to increase.
I heard the economy is so bad, Kamala Harris is going to call Dave Ramsey for financial advice. Apparently she spent a billion dollars for a job interview, and the job fell through and now she’s 20 million dollars in debt.
Thats a lot of beans and rice. maybe she can get a 2nd job delivering pizza or something.
I mean times are hard, when a lawyer has to call Dave Ramsey for a little bit of help.
I think the show title is “Kamala Harris, Billion Dollar Disaster.” its on Itunes and all your favorite podcasting service.
According to DeepAI (?? reliability) GDP growth in 1929 was about 8% with a CPI of 0.5%. It appears the valuation decay time ratio for assets in1929 verses 2024 has a 0.35 to 0.36 proportionality ratio, meaning the peak to nadir time course will be much faster.
http://www.economicfractalist.com/blog/
The easiest manner to observe the 31 October 5/10/10-12 day initial global equity collapse decay series is to look at a month’s worth of a daily gold chart. Gold made final highs on 30/31 October 2024 following a 3-phase 9 October 2024 4/9/6-7 day final growth fractal :: x/2-2.5x/1.6x peak. Day 7, 31 October, started at the high valuation level of 6 October and ended at the low of the day which began the 5/7 of10/10-12 day 3-phase x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x fractal decay series, analogous to the 9 Aug 1929 to 13 November 1929 13/27/30 day decay series. Thus far, gold has lost about 7 % in 11-12 days, whereas the more sensitive bell weather gold mining stocks have lost about 25% over 18 trading days.
The global asset-debt macroeconomic system’s overvaluation/excessive-bad-debt-burden collapse affects both equities, commodities, and, yes, crypto’s. Buckle up.
The Trump and Hoover 4-year administrations will have much in common.
So what?
You are trying to use this meaningless snippet of data to say that there’s no deflation?!
Try harder.
You still haven’t explained where all the magical consumer spending money and credit is coming from to create this imaginary inflation you keep saying there is.
Ukrainian bonds have surged 12% in past month because investors expect that Trump will get a rapid war settlement, which is good for business. At least, in the short run https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/1857015405853782468
Inflation you say?
This is a very nice video of a summary of all the inflation inside next year’s medicare premiums for all you on medicare. It’s scary crazy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzN5meKtyPI
But with Trump’s tariffs coming soon on China, I’m sure medicare costs will plunge as everything is made in America again! /s
“It’s turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up!”
In 2019, Medicare Part B was $135.50/mo. Now it’s $185/mo, a 36.5% increase. The deductible increased from $185 to $257, an increase of 38.5%.
At the same time, the quality, capacity and resilience of the U.S health care system has gone DOWN in the last 6 years, which is ironic because you would think a “pandemic” would have had a positive effect on improving the system.
TLDR: Americans are paying more for less, as usual, and this trend will continue into the future.
Is this that infinity inflation again? Where the price keeps rising like Bitcoin, and the things you get for it vanish like Coviid?
At what point to people give up this fantasy? When your “medicare” is $135,000 per month and all you get is a sticky plaster?
This whole narrative is beyond ridiculous.
Why can’t anyone do mathematics any more?!
the private healthcare industry (corporate medicine) ain’t about curing anyone. There are no patients. Only billable events that can be turned into recurring billable events via “treatments” also known as recurring revenue streams.
Medicine is broken and can’t heal itself…so we pay to be injured further by a demented system.
Stay away from doctors, they are no longer healers they are salesmen in white coats. Selling your health down the drain.
October 2019 – 49.33 million people over 65 on social security (medicare?).
October 2024 – 55.86 million people over 65 on social security (medicare?).
That’s a 13.24% growth rate and will continue to grow through 2030. There’s no free lunch, someone somewhere has to pay for all of this and simply “lift the caps” and force younger people to pay more isn’t why young people voted for Trump.
If anything the DOGE chief is gonna slash and burn benefits but whatever happens, have plenty of popcorn and a backup plan like emigrating to Mexico (lol, the irony).
Data source: https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/
In that same time frame the COLA’s for Social Security totaled 25.3%. This percentage increase is only 69% of the Medicare Part B percentage increase. How can all these “sum of the parts” price increases add up to the official total goods & services CPI?
If China cuts off agricultural imports from the U.S., agriculture commodity prices will go down. Winning!
Yeah then farmers go broke and need bailouts on the backs of taxpayers. Every solution brings more socialism.
Price rises are not inflation.
and money isn’t paper currency. is this a semantics lesson or economics?
For somebody who claims they don’t care about politics, you bring up Trump in every post.
He’s in charge of policy now but if you prefer, I’ll write GOP. The whole point is you reap what you sow prayer man. I don’t want to commit heresy against your savior.
Hes inheriting a trainwreck, I agree.
Ten year back at highs of June 2024.
Equity Markets should be backing down off the post election exuberance.
Gold been dropping showing some stress in risk.
Fed, no reason to hit gas.
USD has been strong.
Currency USD/JPY made a substantial retrace off lows.
Powell did a live interview today and basically said Fed will be sitting on its hands waiting to analyze what happens as year closes out.
would add ECB was out speaking about climate change 🙂
not kidding.
Mish is better than Wolf.
He surely is and is more open minded and welcoming of comments.
Wolf delete those who don’t bow to Herr Wolf. He fights, insults and constricts commentators, fearing Googl. Trump might payback Meta, MSFT and Googl. Institutes have a short time to liquidate positions.
The Fed should not be cutting.
The central bank doesn’t get to decide, the market tells it what it’s doing.
The Fed cannot fight the bond market, otherwise it will implode or explode like an egg in a microwave.
Thanks for your analysis!