Producer prices in September confirm the jump consumers saw at the grocery store. 
The BLS report the Producer Price Index was unchanged in September. despite a surge in the price of food.
PPI Final Demand Key Detail Month-Over-Month
- PPI: +0.0 Percent
- Services: +0.2 Percent
- Goods: -0.2 Percent
- Excluding Food and Energy: +0.5 Percent
- Food: +1.0 Percent
- Energy: -0.7 Percent
Energy more than offset the jump in food because the increase in services has more weight than the decline in goods.
PPI Year-Over-Year
PPI Final Demand Year-Over-Year Details
- PPI: +1.8 Percent
- Goods: -1.1 Percent
- Services: +3.1 Percent
- Energy: -13.8 Percent
- Food: 3.2 Percent
- Excluding Food and Energy: 2.8 Percent
The year-over-year trends are inching up despite a massive drop in energy.
CPI Good News on Shelter and Energy But Food Jumps
Yesterday, I noted CPI Good News on Shelter and Energy But Food Jumps
The CPI was a mix of good and bad in September. The good outweighs the bad especially for renters. But what’s ahead?
The Cost of Food Increased 0.4 Percent in Sept, What’s in Your Basket?
Also consider The Cost of Food Increased 0.4 Percent in Sept, What’s in Your Basket?
The BLS just handed Trump a huge campaign talking point. Five charts.
Increase From Pre-Pandemic
- Food at Home: +26.34 percent
- Food Away From Home: 28.7 percent
- Fruits and Vegetables: +18.0 percent
- Meat, Fish, Poultry, Eggs: +30.3 percent
- Cereals +28.6 percent
- Dairy: +20.6 percent
Looking Ahead
I expect further improvement in shelter, due to falling rent and OER. That is very good news given their weight in the CPI. Short term, the good new might end there.
The price of crude has spiked so energy costs will rise.
Medical care services is another hot spot that is bad news. Unfortunately, I expect the bad news will continue.
The hurricanes will drive up the cost of home repairs and materials, perhaps substantially.
Insurance costs will rise everywhere as insurers will look to spread out the damages.
I will go over medical costs later today.
Ridiculous Answers from Harris and Trump Regarding Food Costs
On September 27, I noted Ridiculous Answers from Harris and Trump Regarding Food Costs
Both candidates have been asked questions what they would do about the rising cost of food. Let’s discuss their answers.
Trump also blamed imports. That is preposterous. Reducing imports would raise prices. And if Trump deports migrant crop pickers, prices will skyrocket.
Click on the post for a discussion of the correct answer. Hint: Think of something President Reagan said.
History often rhymes.
In the 70’s unions demanded and got COLAs in their contracts.
It took 2-5 years to trickle through the US economy.
Then some brief wage and price controls and gold ownership legalized.
The US (and the World) is going to do That Seventies Show again.
If I were a betting man, I’d be rich. The Harris campaign demanded a rate cut, the Fed didn’t have a choice but to obey, and now it will blow up in their faces. Food inflation is much higher than what they’re reporting. How much is the BLS hiding? Our whole government are a bunch of liars.
Yes But Trump will Save Us…
Where can i get a ball cap with that slogan?
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/lets-take-a-look-at-donald-trumps
Why the recall? Just sell it cheap to reduce the CPI. Krugman Hedonics.
BrucePac Recalls Ready-To-Eat Meat and Poultry Products Due to Possible Listeria Contamination | Food Safety and Inspection Service (usda.gov)
Any deaths will bring down future social security and medicare payments.
A broker told me that he was “advised” to tell his clients that inflation is “contained.”
He said he couldn’t do it with a straight face and is afraid he is going to lose his job.
Some things on wall street will never change and that is the continued pack of lies they foment (anything for a trade or to initiate a transaction, regardless of the facts).
You all should invest in stocks so my commissions can pay for my kids tuition next semester.
Not true. This is just everyday normal
https://thefederalist.com/2024/10/11/kamala-has-never-been-more-awkward-than-during-her-univision-town-hall-interview/
According to “Erdogan Economics” it’s almost time for another rate cut.
keep cutting till hyperinflation…
That’s probably the fate of NZ….
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut its official cash rate by 50 basis points, following a 25-basis-point decrease in August, flagging concerns about subdued economic activity, weak business investment and consumer spending.
The recent moves by the RBNZ represent a stark change from earlier in the year, when it flagged further hikes.
What’s next?
Further interest cuts are expected, with some economists forecasting another 50 basis point move late next month. The RBNZ will be closely watching inflation data due out in late October and jobs figures released in early November.https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/new-zealand-panics
1M CL downtrend cycle might be over by the end of Oct. Thereafter CL might popup.
If food prices are up 1% how come cooking oil went from $5.33/gallon to $11.99/gallon? Eggs went from 99cents to $4.00/dozen. Premium India Pale Ale went from $5/six pack to $14.00. Apples are a dollar each.
Broccoli and Brussels Sprouts are still the same price they were five years ago.
So there’s that.
Some catagories have gone crazy, Oil’s, Snack foods,Soda’s,chips etc. beer, High population area restaurants have crazy high prices, reasons to blame go to government regulations. Rural areas have lower prices on the menus.
Stop with facts. Embrace the Joy
That fall in goods -1.1% is a squeeze on manufacturing.
Which also continues to get hit with rising service costs to manufacture.
Fair share of manufacturing base being Union Labor. Case in point company like Stellantis getting scorched on sales.
Past Price hikes of product line are hitting sales volume considerable.
Not at all favorable to make Union workers happy as their need to cover cost of living rises going to be hampered by Manufacturers ability to pass new wage increases along to consumer.
Interesting turn of events, services which are labor dependent went up.
George Gammon had an interesting video out comparing 2007 to 2024 and while there are some similarities, other things are very different, the most important of which is the tight labor market.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXg24HoMGBU
Unfortunately, George doesn’t look into the demographic situation. In 2008 there were 49.865m people on social security, today there are 72.554m. An increase of 22m people or 45.5% increase. Those numbers only go up from here and the ticking time bomb gets larger.
“It’s turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up!”
Prepare accordingly.
1980 election parallels indeed.
more disable people will get less and less.
“We are living on borrowed time and borrowed money”