The BLS just handed Trump a huge campaign talking point. Five charts.
Food Away from Home vs Food at Home Month-Over-Month
- In the prior 19 months, the monthly price of food fell 3 months, was unchanged 6 months, rose 0.1 percent 5 times, rose 0.2 percent 3 times, and more than 0.2 percent only twice.
- That string of good news for food at home ended in September with a 0.4 percent jump.
- In the prior 19 months, food away from home rose at least 0.4 percent on eleven occasions, and was never negative or zero.
Six CPI Food Categories Month-Over-Month
This is a nasty chart. If your basket is heavily towards (meat, fish, poultry, eggs) or (fruits and vegetables) you took a big hit this month.
CPI With a Spotlight on Food
The year-over-year price of food and beverage, and food at home appear to have bottomed.
CPI Six Food Categories Year-Over-Year
The year-over-year price of meat, fish, poultry, and eggs is ripping higher. This is as expected given the surge in month-over-month prices.
The decline in the year-over-year price of food away from home has stalled. I suspect it will soon turn back up. Factor in rising tips and it never receded as much as the chart implies.
CPI Food Index Levels
The above chart is what ties everything together. It’s one thing to say year-over-year numbers are falling, and it’s an entirely different thing to say prices are falling.
If your diet is cereal, congrats! You get to say the price of food is down 0.28 percent from a year ago.
If you primarily dine out, your bill (not counting tips) has gone up by 3.6 percent. As calculated above from unadjusted levels it’s 3.9 percent.
Increase From Pre-Pandemic
- Food at Home: +26.34 percent
- Food Away From Home: 28.7 percent
- Fruits and Vegetables: +18.0 percent
- Meat, Fish, Poultry, Eggs: +30.3 percent
- Cereals +28.6 percent
- Dairy: +20.6 percent
Ridiculous Answers from Harris and Trump Regarding Food Costs
On September 27, I noted Ridiculous Answers from Harris and Trump Regarding Food Costs
Both candidates have been asked questions what they would do about the rising cost of food. Let’s discuss their answers.
Trump also blamed imports. That is preposterous. Reducing imports would raise prices. And if Trump deports migrant crop pickers, prices will skyrocket.
Click on the post for a discussion of the correct answer. Hint: Think of something President Reagan said.
CPI Good News on Shelter and Energy But Food Jumps
Earlier today, I commented CPI Good News on Shelter and Energy But Food Jumps
The CPI was a mix of good and bad in September. The good outweighs the bad especially for renters. But what’s ahead?
Talking Points
Today, the BLS handed trump an enormous talking point on a silver platter.
If Trump was smart (not that he can or will do anything about this), he would hammer this issue hard, in the correct way, blasting Harris for suggesting price controls.
The rent issue is settled – Rent only rises once a year and most rents renewed May-August. Yes how they break will decide but issue settled.
Food is another matter. It changes every month, It is a huge issue precisely because people see constant change.
I’m a retiree who shops for groceries for two. I find myself often distressed as I watch families next to me shop. Basic food items like fruit, veggies, meat, fish, dairy, etc. go up by a dollar or more per week, $6 for 2 peaches, $1 per orange, $6 for gal of milk, $4 a lb for chicken breasts, peanut butter $7 for a 16 oz jar, etc. Then there’s shrinkflation with smaller and smaller jars, boxes, and cans. Get your 12 oz cans of soda for what used to be the price of 16 oz. or 1 pt 14 oz mayo for the price of the former 16 oz jar. I wonder how in the world a family with two or three youngsters to feed can possibly afford to buy food as well as pay rent/mortgage (ave rent here is $1,825 a mo if you can find a place) and keep a car running to commute to work. If the election turns on inflation and cost of living, I don’t see how Trump doesn’t win.
“If the election turns on inflation and cost of living, I don’t see how Trump doesn’t win.”
If economic performance over the preceding presidential period determines elections, the two idiot parties will be oscillating in and out of power every election.
Neither of them has championed; heck neither have been able to even comprehend; as much as a single non-destructive policy for decades on end, and won’t be doing so going forward. Hence: Things; all things; WILL continue to get worse and worse. Every year. Year in, year out. America creating NO value; but instead functioning only and solely as a theft racket aimed at keeping an ever shrinking clique of useless and imbecile Fed Welfare recipients in; always unearned; splendor, by stealing ever more of all that previous generations built up back before ’71. Americans have been getting poorer and poorer for 50 years now. There is virtually NO chance of that changing for decades upon decades, as it would take a literal revolution for all the idiocies ensuring it remains so to be cleared out and replaces with something resembling economically literate anything-at-all.
In 25 years, Americans will live like current day Argentinians. Heck, by the look of things, all the down to cheering for Dear Leaders mindlessly banging weird hairdoos into walls in Israel.
YOU are 100% correct of course. democracy works perfectly. for the past 2500 years, folks elect themselves(representative republic). war mongering dumb nihilists elect those types. hence Trump and Harris. DEMOCRACY WORKS PERFECT. END OF STORY.
What kind of designer peanut butter is that or what store is ripping people off selling peanut butter that high? On October 7, I paid $3.98 for a 40oz. jar of the Walmart house brand Great Value peanut butter at Walmart. Trump and the Republicans are equally to blame as the Democrats for inflation. 95.9% of US House of Representatives Republicans voted YEA and 92% of Republican US Senators voted YEA and Trump signed it. If people dont like or want inflation, they should vote Libertarian, the only party whose platform is to cut spending and debt. Voting for R or D is voting YEA for inflation.
My comment was referring to the $2.2 trillion CARES act that nearly all the Republicans and Trump voted for, causing inflation “bigly”.
Fortunately, natural gas prices remain low. $2.70 natural gas, is the same as $16.20 WTI (6:1 ratio). Gasoline remains reasonable, averaging $3.25 (local price will vary).
I expect gasoline prices to stay reasonable for the foreseeable future as demand is waning (thanks EVs, PHEVs and fuel efficiency gains).
However, I expect natural gas prices to rise as demand grows for more electricity generation (thanks EVs, PHEVs, AI, Crypto, etc)
I have been shifting some of my investments from oil producers to gas producers. More DiamondBack, Tourmaline, Arc Resources.
Cheers!
look at TRGP
Thanks!
thanks for your recommendations.
Do not fear many Blue states are solving the “problem” of cheap natural gas by barring new hook-ups, carbon tax credit markets for companies, and netzero goals for replacement of gas furnaces with $20,000 heat pumps. The State profits from the carbon tax will create a bureaucracy of highly paid civil servants to re-distribute money to those “hardest hit.” Favored Dem businesses will get a carbon exemption so they can give to their candidates in lieu of the tax. The rest of the carbon tax profits from energy businesses still remaining in the state will go wherever the heck the Dems want it to after being dumped in the general fund.
Nice rant.
Don’t care.
Just bring more Haitians into the food plants. Problem solved! Sheesh, easy peazy. . What’s next, Mish?
LOL……..
With the cost of everything rising so much, going out to eat is a novelty now. As a result I have altered my shopping to ADD a going out to eat Meal!
Last week a couple decent steaks, with some asparagus and a small container of ice cream for dessert!
This week, I am thinking Seafood for a splurge!
It’s a nice way to have a nice meal, without breaking the bank, or going without!
Try shrimp & grits. Get some cajun spice seasoning for the shrimp. Saute in some butter. Quaker Oats makes pretty decent microwavable grits. Steam some asparagus. Pretty easy meal to prepare.
Helene and Milton devastated FL. CA fires are still burning. Mudslides destroyed Palos-Verdes peninsula four cities : two of Palos-Verdes and two Rolling Hills . Nature destroyed wealth accumulated for decades east/west. It’s a war against CA and FL. They might not recover for years. CA & FL are getting hit like ==> Jasa and S.Lebanon.
The cost of eggs, junk meat and chicks, tomatoes sauce and the cost of labor – especially CA labor – are rising. In CA the min wage of junk food restaurants is $20/hr. CA min wage of health aid workers is $18/hr. Junk food outlets are closing or cutting hours. Demand for health aid workers is high. Boomers are getting heart attacks, cancer and strokes. Somebody has to feed, dress, undress, wash them, help them with #1 and #2, wrap them with a wide belt… 24/7 days and nights, even if they are 6’5” and 300 pounds.
The average ss monthly check is $1,800. Food cost about $400/person. Since the average 1BD rent is $1,400 the gov transfers money to landlords. After food and rent nothing is left. In major cities the situation is worse.
For retired homeowners who pay $6,000/$10,000/y in RE taxes, ex mortgage, insurance, maintenance and repairs – one thousand here, three thousands there – their houses suck gov transfer money.
I was waiting for some comments on profiting from the high food inflation but sadly no one stepped up.
As I mentioned before, when Mish posts something and then there are subsequent whiners and whining, I like to look for profits.
I own shares of Tyson Foods so I decided to check in on them and came across this pertinent article…
https://qz.com/mcdonalds-sues-tyson-foods-jbs-cargill-beef-supply-1851667117
The gall of McDonalds to sue to force the meat producers to produce MORE meat so they can sell it cheaply to McDonalds is entertaining but it also tells me McDonlads will likely take financial hit soon enough otherwise why file the lawsuit. It also tells me that Tyson Foods is gonna rake in the profits so I’ll hold on to those shares and sell OTM calls against my position for additional premium to be a bit short. I’ll sit back and collect the dividend then go out and buy a nice juicy steak.
“It’s turtles all the way down and inflation all the way up!”
McFarms coming soon?
mcd is already just a r/e play
I’m doing just fine avoiding those 2 bottom feeders
great stuff. thanks
Proteins are the killer in my basket, Mike. No doubt the Feddies would prefer we all switch to even more carbs and seed oils in order to hide the inflation. Never mind increasing rates of obesity and diabetes and inflammation from such food pyramid diets. (Ozempic for all?) /sarc big time
I don’t understand how this would help Trump, Mish. First, the overall inflation rate decreased again; those are the headlines.
And I understand that food inflation might get some people’s attention even though it’s much less than it was a couple of years ago. But even if it went up 0.4% in one month, that would be an increase of 40 cents on a $100 grocery bill. Who would that sway to vote Trump, if he campaigned on it?
Most voters don’t judge food inflation by a government report. They judge it by what they see in the grocery store. It matters most to the working class, the majority of whom support Trump, The democrats are the party of eggheads and trannies.
We won’t be getting those food price increases back. That’s the reality.
Can I interest you in a lard sandwich?
Food inflation, while a problem, can at least partially be mitigated by shopping around for replacement foods. If pasta has gotten expensive, switch to rice. Pickles up? Try beets.
The other thing about food inflation is it hits the poorest hardest. There are shoppers who go to the supermarket and never look at the prices because the poorer cohorts are eagle-eyed in their shopping for them.
Finally, eating out from home is a pleasure that will have to be denied to some. In Canada, where I live, a Quarter Pounder Meal at McDonald’s costs $14.50. This is a whole hour’s work at minimum wage. (Meanwhile a bag of pasta will run you under two dollars and last 3 meals.)
— Greg (my blog: dark.sport.blog)
Ah, “Substitution”, which IIRC is the same technique Fed Gov would use to hide inflation. “Hmm, Steak got too expensive so we swapped it out with Ground Beef…oh, that’s expensive, too, so…we’ll swap it for floor sweepings? /sarc
Just buy smaller amounts of Doritos and other staples 🙂
i think the median amerikan would be well served to eat 25% less and ditch one of their autos……….try walking to do more things……..
ok eddy. the garbage amerikans call food is great for SS system. more for me
What I am about to write is sort of off topic sort of but today the Atlanta FED reported that nominal overall wage growth and service wage growth grew by 4.6%, those with a college degree grew 5.1% and all of the aforementioned growth were over a three month rolling period.
The bond markets are signaling higher rates not a 25 basis or 50 basis count at the next FED meeting.
Given that both Harris and Trump are over the top supporters of Netanyahu if Israel escalates it strikes against Iran and Iran responds how long before energy prices rise past the $70 to low $80 range?
Shades of the 70s energy crises are reentering into the sunlight.
Trump = big supporter
Harris = Turncoat
i don’t think the term turncoat applies to an amerikan person not giving a phuck about another country like israel or ukraine.
OT but I just learned and wanted to share that one of the polling outfits came up with its own unemployment rate as part of a monthly job-market survey. Unemployment is measured by asking “who do you work for” and tallying response “unemployed but looking for work”. Their Unemployment rate is 8.7%, up from 8.4% last month.
This either tells you something about the lack of accuracy of the official unemployment stats (in which case it supports Mish’s incipient-recession thesis too), or the lack of accuracy of all forms of polling (which would include Presidential polls as well).
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/economic_indexes/rasmussen_reports_unemployment_update/rasmussen_real_unemployment_rate_again_double_the_official_rate2
i still don’t know anyone who is out of work.
Well that settles it, then. I don’t know anyone with cancer. Yay! Cancer has been cured!
Trump is his own worst enemy. Everyone is affected by food prices.
To ignore the aggregate effect of money flows on prices (using the transactions velocity (Vt) of money, i.e., with bank debits being the proxy), is to ignore the inflation process. To dismiss the concept of Vt by saying it is meaningless (that people can only spend their income once, as defined in Keynesian economics), is to ignore the fact that Vt is a function of three factors:
(1) the number of transactions;
(2) the prices of goods and services;
(3) the volume of M.
Inflation analysis cannot be limited to the volume of wages and salaries spent (as income velocity by definition does). To do so is to overlook the principal “engine” of inflation – which is of course, the volume of credit (new money) created by the Reserve & the commercial banks, plus the expenditure rate (velocity) of these funds. Also, e.g., overlooked is the effect of the expenditure of the savings of the non-bank public on prices (dis-savings). The (MVt) figure encompasses the total effect of all these monetary flows (MVt).
Only Government can create inflation.
https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1844398034119266558
Banks create ex nihilo more money than the Federal Reserve. The FED has very little influence over the long end of the curve if at all since the end of WW II.
The difference between today’s inflation and the 70s were banks created more money then than today factoring in the devaluation of yankee dollar.
Foreign students are good for business. Colleges are charging them $60K/ $90K instead of $15K/$20K for state colleges. They are building clusters of land/apt x 10/15 floors mostly for foreign students, bc their parents/gov can pay, transferring knowledge. The homeless are nearby observing the 18Y/22Y girls.
My food costs doubled this year. So did the free money sloshing around.
mail in votes rolling in fast now………huge amount breaking for Ds and unaffiliated and minor party
Just making things up?
NOPE
It’s not 47 million requested but mailed out (see CA which mailed out a big portion of that). Those are not ballots submitted or even counted. Ballots that are cast will not be counted until the week of active in person voting begins (again in CA). Ask me how I know well it’s in the voter’s guide or if you go to your county’s registrar/recorders office you can access most if not all procedural processes regarding the handling of ballots and their counting. Parties do not have access or are given numbers with regard to voting numbers or totals until after voting closes on Nov. 5th.
no shit sherlock. i worked the polls in CA, AZ, SC and NY since i was 16 back in 1964.
After adjustments for bird flu and supply chain disruptions, food inflation is 0%. There is no inflation. It’s all in your head.
If a food company lost a lot of money from Covid, and spoilage of unbought food in storage added to the losses, plus Covid managed to trim the competitors of companies that sell a can of beans from 5 to 2, wouldnt you raise prices as high as you could for as long as you could to compensate? It’s temporary. All we need is a little good old fashioned capitalism to get prices back down.
The US gov raised tariffs on China. China retaliated. She bought less CA tomatoes and walnuts. Prices deflated. The farmers adjusted cutting their crops acreage, selling farmland to homebuilder. Prices of fruits and vegetables are rising. The spread between food at home and away from home is growing. Costco makes everything cheaper. Costco is always busy. Your house is Costco warehouse.
“Today, the BLS handed trump an enormous talking point on a silver platter.”
I was under the impression that “renters” were going to decide this election so shouldn’t that headline be, “the BLS handed Harris an enormous talking point for all those renters that will decide the election” ??
Food is a fairly small amount of spend in comparison to rent.
The rent issue is settled – Rent only rises once a year and most rents renewed May-August. Yes how they break will decide but issue settled.
Food is another matter. It changes every month, It is a huge issue precisely because people see constant change.
Wrong. Rent doesn’t matter. Nor the economy. Nor the border. Nor free speech. Just abortions. All day everyday….Im glad you aren’t looking at the betting odds monkeypox bc your confidence would be waning.
Here’s a link for you sweetheart
https://polymarket.com/elections
Shes going down faster than she did on Willie Brown
Then you should load up on DJT.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/
Let us know how many shares you buy. Might work out better than Tesla for you.
I’ve never owned either. And would never own an EV
I wonder how much insurance premiums factor into the inflation data. Probably not enough. Insurance cost has risen a lot.
Most illegals don’t work in agriculture. Something like 3%. Reducing mouths to feed through deportation of illegals should lower demand and competition for housing and food.
The price of donkey shows will skyrocket, though.
A wide variety of rices.
And many, many types of beans.
And Beef Wellington.
And Stilton.
And 15 year old single malt.
It’s ok, I don’t need to eat. #whiteguysforharris