Raging Debate: Is Immunity From a Covid-19 Infection Stronger Than Immunity Via Vaccination?

Vaccination vs Natural Immunity Debate 

A WSJ article addresses the question Which Carries the Stronger Immunity, Covid-19 Vaccines or Infections? Note: That is a not paywalled link. 

Evidence is building that immunity from Covid-19 infection is at least as strong as that from vaccination. Scientists are divided on the implications for vaccine policy.

Vaccines typically give rise to a stronger antibody response than infection, which might make them better at fending off the virus in the short term. Infection triggers a response that evolves over time, possibly making it more robust in the long term. A combination of both types appears to be stronger than either alone. But the jury is out on whether one form is stronger than the other, and whether their relative strength even matters for vaccine policy.

One thing is clear: Vaccination is a far safer, more reliable strategy for acquiring immunity, given the risks of serious illness or death from infection. But viewpoints splinter about whether people who have had Covid-19 before need a full course of vaccination, and whether documented prior infection should count as proof of immunity—as is the case in some other countries, including much of Europe.

A recent Israeli study found that people who had been vaccinated with two shots of the vaccine developed by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE —the most commonly used there—were 13 times more likely to later get infected than those with a prior infection. The study, which hasn’t been peer reviewed, tracked confirmed infections between June and August this year for people who had been either vaccinated or infected in January or February.

Some studies suggest the opposite. One, conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, found that, among people hospitalized with a respiratory illness, Covid-19 was over five times more common among those who were unvaccinated and had an earlier infection compared with those who were fully inoculated and hadn’t had the virus before. Critics say the study, which hasn’t been peer reviewed, had flaws that likely overestimated the relative strength of vaccination.

The two forms of immunity appear to have different strengths. Vaccination with mRNA vaccines produced higher concentrations of neutralizing antibodies—the type that prevent the virus from entering cells—than infection, although levels waned in both groups, according to a recent paper published in the journal Nature by researchers at the Rockefeller University in New York.

So-called hybrid immunity—that in people who have had both vaccination and infection—has been shown to be strongest of all. The Rockefeller researchers found that vaccination boosted levels of antibodies in the blood and memory B cells in people who had been infected before. The effect also appears to work in the other direction: A study of vaccinated people who were infected during a July 4 holiday weekend outbreak in Cape Cod found that they produced high levels of antibodies and T-cells directed against the virus. That study, led by researchers at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, hasn’t been peer reviewed.

Some doctors say the mounting evidence on the role of immunity from infection supports a more nuanced approach to vaccine policy.

Among them is UCSF’s Dr. Gandhi, who supports a single dose of vaccine in people who have had the virus. She also thinks prior infection should carry weight when it comes to vaccine mandates. “Mandating [vaccination] so that someone [unvaccinated] loses their job if they have a proven prior infection is going too far,” she said.

Marty Makary, a professor at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, also advocates a case-by-case approach to vaccination in people who have already had Covid-19, especially among children. “There’s no scientific basis for vaccinating people who had the infection,” he said. “It’s not clear to me that the benefits of vaccination in someone who has circulating antibodies outweighs the risk.”

“The risk of vaccination is extraordinarily low,” said Tom Frieden, former director of the CDC and chief executive of Resolve to Save Lives, a nonprofit initiative that works on strengthening epidemic preparedness. “The benefit is high and the uncertainty with infection makes it so that you can’t make that a replacement to vaccination.”

Supporting Evidence For Every Position

The article contains enough studies and opinions to suit whatever you want to believe. 

I am more prone to believe Israeli and Rockefeller studies than studies by the CDC.

Indeed, the conflicting and changing stories coupled with outright purposeful lies by Dr. Anthony Fauci explain why many do not trust Fauci, the World Health Organization, or the CDC.

Certainly the vaccinations have proven to have fewer complications and lower death rates than being unvaccinated. 

And even if one survives Covid, there appears to be additional benefit to vaccinations. 

Does Omicron Change the Debate?

Actually, we simply do not have enough information to know. 

Here’s a debate proposal of another kind.

A friend of mine asked me to promote a debate between Dr. Fauci and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

The proposed format is a 60-90 minute debate on COVID lockdowns, masks, vaccines and treatments. 

That’s the challenge if either happens to read this post.

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Dr. Odyssey
Dr. Odyssey
4 years ago
I have taken the liberty of reposting the following comments due to their relevance to intelligent discussion of the issue.
Blurtman’s comment:
Stronger is the wrong question. Broader, yes of course, natural immunity confers much broader immunity than the narrowly defined mRNA products. Another unasked question is which provides better protection against mutants. It would take quite a mutant to evade protection from natural immunity.
Also never discussed is innate immunity. Low affinity and broadly reactive IgM antibodies that help neutralize pathogens at the outset.  Also part of innate immunity are NK cells and other immune cells that possess pattern recognition receptors capable of recognizing and causing a response to infection. If not for innate immunity, humanity would not survive the emergence of novel pathogens.
With regards to the safety of mRNA products, there is zero long-term data.
Speculato’s comment:
Blurtman, 
Well-stated explanation, which seems to elude some individuals on this site; they perhaps don’t understand the complex layers of this issue historically, politically and most importantly, SCIENTIFICALLY. You make a cogent explanation.
”If not for innate immunity, humanity would not survive the emergence of novel pathogens.”
This seems to be the crux of the discussion…I’ve tried to present the ‘Terrain Theory’ on this site, while embracing the ‘Germ Theory’ for treatment of certain pathogens for which the human body may have no defense. The Terrain Theory is not popular here as it’s almost never in the public consciousness, and because of the gross propagandizing and politicizing of the alternative, we see some acting as children in defending a belief they don’t fully understand. 
Your contribution may have helped.
purple squish
purple squish
4 years ago
I personally love this question, as it exposes the COVID regime hacks for what they are. If we were really trying to come to a conclusion scientifically, we’d start with an informative Bayesian prior that was something like this: There are a handful of viruses like HIV or dengue fever for which convalescence doesn’t provide significant immunity, and literally thousands of other viruses where it does. Which category is any new emergent virus most likely to fall into? Conservatively, there’s a 99% chance that it’s not one of the weird exceptions. And of course, everyone, including the doomers, seemed to be on board with this in early-mid 2020 and they were making projections using SIR and SEIR models, where the “R” stands for “recovered”. Good so far. Then we started getting data in from actual studies, and did we learn anything that made us think that maybe this virus had some weird superpower? No, basically every study done shows that recovery from SARS-COV-2 is just like it works with almost everything else. See this systematic review for instance, which shows an average risk reduction of 90% up to 10 months later: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/01632787211047932
And, of course, there’s over a hundred other studies that aren’t included in that review that touch on some other aspect of how good recovery from infection is in preventing further harm from COVID. Beyond that, even if you somehow miss the logic on the prior and the data, you still might come to the right conclusion through a couple other lines of reasoning. E.g. if any endogenous factors influence the clinical outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection, like BMI or hypertension, and they are more or less similar within individuals, then the 99.7% of people who survived COVID the first time will have fewer risk factors than people who died, and will be more likely to survive a reinfection as well. Yet, bravely standing against this onslaught of evidence is the CDC with its two embarrassingly bad studies. Just for the sake of argument, let’s grant that they’re really trying hard to assess the situation and come up with a policy that optimizes for health (hilarious premise at this point, but humor me). In that case, their position tells us one of two things: (1) the CDC is looking at the same information everyone else is, and somehow coming to the wrong conclusion; or (2) it is using secret data not available to the scientific community at large, and has failed to bring this important information to our attention, in which case it has a criminally bad problem with transparency. In short, this is a “debate” in the same way that we might debate whether fire is caused by exothermic oxidation or escaping phlogiston. Really, it’s a government agency being caught red-handed in doing something completely different than what it is authorized to do. 
dpr777
dpr777
4 years ago
Qatar study (as reported in New England Journal of Medicine)
Natural immunity reinfection study from Qatar: 
of 353,326 infected, 
1,304 reinfections, 
4 hospitalizations, 
0 ICU admits, 
and 0 deaths.
PCR+efficacy: 99.631%
hospitalization+efficacy: 99.99886%
ICU-efficacy: 100%
death-efficacy: 100%
Any more questions ?
Mish
Mish
4 years ago
Reply to  dpr777
Yes – How many died attempting to get natural immunity rather than getting vaccinated?
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Mish
Probably a very small number.  As I have posted previously (and you can go lookup the link for the Gallup article), less than 1% of Covid infections wind up in the hospital.  LESS THAN 1%!  And obviously some much smaller number wind up dead.  And of those who died, the vast majority were teetering on the edge anyway as they were old, obese, had multiple comorbidities or some combination of all of the above. 
And yet again, sigh, the total percentage of Covid dead, assuming we accept the publish CDC numbers, are less than 0.125%.
You’ve got a math background.  Use it instead of trying to defend the indefensible.
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
Reply to  Mish
Most Covid-19 deaths reflect the fact that most people were denied early outpatient treatment and once in the hospital, treated with Remdesivir, which has a 23% severe adverse reaction rate.  How many people that fell into the 23%, died due to an adverse reaction to Remdisivir? We aren’t being told. They are simply counted as a Covid death, as they were being treated for Covid-19.
While it is a small overall number of people, Fahreed/Tyson treated 6,000 Covid patients with their protocol, and none died.
With the vast majority denied early treatment, i don’t consider it a fair comparison between the number of those who died of Covid, to those who have died of the shot. Therapies should never have been blocked by the FDA.
Dean_70
Dean_70
4 years ago
Eventually natural immunity will prevail among both vaxxed and unvaxxed but big pharma will contribute the results solely to vax.
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
4 years ago
So much of the data out there is an opaque bag of information about old folks in poor health. Sold as data about everybody.
Consider this: Maybe Cuomo and certain other governors took the right advice: Isolate the old folks. Especially those with Covid. NY, after all, had its huge spike in March/April 2020 … then … nothing. You could argue (not particularly persuasively, but you could argue) that all the easy Covid targets got whacked early before they could do harm to the rest of NY.
Hmmm. “Sold as data about everybody.” That rings a bell. What? Where? When? …….. Ah. Yes. AIDS!
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Felix_Mish
Robert Kennedy’s new book on Fauci says that AIDS was a hoax.
FooFooFed
FooFooFed
4 years ago
If you think that the nasal and lung mucosa don’t provide any defense/immune system response then you would believe vaccines are as good as natural acquired immunity. The question should be how much do we know about the immune system today and have vaccines reflected that new knowledge base? I don’t think Mish really thought about his Topic Question. Naturally Acquired viruses stimulate the immune system in ways we may not even know about today. Do you really think a Intramuscular vaccine has the same stimulative effect on the entire immune system? 
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Certainly the vaccinations have proven to have fewer complications and lower death rates than being unvaccinated.
Few complications than being unvaxxed?  
And even if one survives Covid, there appears to be additional benefit to vaccinations.
What might those be?  Super strength?  X-ray vision?  immunity against all future diseases?
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  Jojo
“immunity against all future diseases?”
CDC had a press release that said those who vacc has lower non-COVID overall death rate than we suckers who don’t vacc….

If that’s true, sign me up for every booster available  🙂

Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Yooper
Yes, with a study length time of what 11 months?
amigator
amigator
4 years ago
Thanks for bringing up this topic. I have read both studies by the CDC the most recent was an exercise is how to prove a vaccine is better than a previous infection and has more foot notes than my Chow hydraulics text book. The other study was 250 people in Kentucky.
I think the lack of a decent review/study of this issue demonstrates the political nature of the vaccine. 
I have had three flu shots in my lifetime I doubt now I will ever get one again. If I do it will not be for health reasons but to protect my job.
This is my new America.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  amigator
They are talking about switching future flu shots to mRNA type technology.  Talk about opening Pandora’s Box!
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
“One thing is clear: Vaccination is a far safer, more reliable strategy for acquiring immunity, given the risks of serious illness or death from infection.”
Which is BS for a whole slew of reasons starting with Covax is a partial solution that only works on the spike protein configs that the immune system has been trained on (mutations not covered) and isn’t a sterilizing solution, thus allowing the vaxxed to act as vehicles enabling mutation.  Meanwhile, natural immunity will generally work across variants (unless they have mutated significantly).
Then there are all the risks that are showing up in only the Covaxxed such as blood clots, strokes, heart attacks, possible ADE, possible autoimmune diseases and much more that may take years to show up, unless you happen to be putting a strain on your vascular system, like numerous athletes who are dropping dead w/o explanation after recent Covax shots.
But hey, except for that, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln?
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
“A friend of mine asked me to promote a debate between Dr. Fauci and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.”
Steve Kirsch has offered a $1,000,000 bet to anyone from the public health agencies, that will debate him and prove him wrong about his Covax research. No one has taken up the challenge.
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
It’s as if the whole medical community threw out all research done pre-COVID around SARS version 1 and the mRNA gene therapy research for cancer identifying significant risks in the technology especially with ADS when used as a vaccine.
I’ve a close family member who does cancer research at the University of Michigan, has three dozen plus published papers on the subject over the past 10 years. It’s as if mRNA is so brand new when you speak of “possible” risks, but act like it’s been around for 10 years, so don’t ask questions :/
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  Yooper
Maximus_Minimus
Maximus_Minimus
4 years ago
Reply to  Yooper
More accurately, mRNA has been around since life’s been around. It’s the mechanism to transcribe genes into enzymes, but it’s easy to jump to the conclusion that delivering man-made mRNA for a virus protein will have the same linear result.
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Nihil ad rem. Irrelevant to the discussion. 
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
Reply to  Yooper
Anyone who does not parrot the official narrative, no matter how impeccable their credentials, is smeared or ignored. Dr. Yeaden is the former Chief Science Officer at Pfizer. He had to threaten to sue the BBC, to get them to retract something they said about him.
To me, the scientific/public health agencies/medical community flushed their credibility down the toilet, when they smeared Hydroxychloroquine, a drug with anti-viral properties. Zelenko gave his patients 400 milligrams of HCQ, while the Oxford Study gave 6X, 2,400 milligrams, a toxic dose. Of coarse, the Oxford study HCQ patients would be worse off than non HCQ patients.
Dr. Chris Martinson called the HCQ study, “rigged.”
There couldn’t be an Emergency Use Authorization for a vaccine unless there was no alternative viable therapy. Thus any had to be obstructed, for a vaccine only agenda, within the public health agencies. A lot of lives were lost as a result of no early treatment.
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
“There couldn’t be an Emergency Use Authorization for a vaccine unless there was no alternative viable therapy.”
THIS, precisely….
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
Nobody has tried because Nobody could convince you loons that water is wet.  
TheWindowCleaner
TheWindowCleaner
4 years ago
I venture that upward of 95% of you here would be harping about people not getting vaccinated if Hillary Clinton had been president when COVID arose. Get real…about the issue, and yourselves.
Mike 2112
Mike 2112
4 years ago
Nope. Both Trump and Desantis are pro-vax.
And Biden, Harris, Cuomo, and many other prominent dems were anti-vax when Trump was prez only to change their positions when Biden was elected.
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
I think it’s the opposite. The Dems at the time were talking about never getting a vacc developed under Trump – until Biden won and now it’s better than sliced bread and can help eliminate ALL causes of death according to the CDC politicians…
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
I was infected by the very early version of COVID in April 2020. I NEVER get sick beyond a stuffy head for a day or two. That spring I was laid out for 2 weeks. Fast forward to this month, my wife was infected at work at a fully vacc’d hospital back office. I had swollen lymph nodes within a day of exposure and that was it. Entire house tested positive (two of us and 4 kids) with no symptoms. My doctor said simply that because I was exposed and recovered, I had an immediate response (rather than the 3-5 days it takes for the immune system to ramp up). Although anecdotal, this is in alignment with quite a few studies:
NIH

Prior infection in patients with COVID-19 was highly protective
against reinfection and symptomatic disease. This protection increased
over time, suggesting that viral shedding or ongoing immune response may
persist beyond 90 days and may not represent true reinfection.
Cleveland Clinic
Out of the 1,359 staffers who were unvaccinated and previously infected with COVID-19, none were reinfected during the study (6 months). The study has found that someone who has been
infected with the coronavirus is unlikely to be reinfected for at least
10 months

There are many to show boosters are needed after 3-4 months because they wane, here’s the NIH and Lancet.

“Furthermore, multiple epidemiological and clinical studies, including
studies during the recent period of predominantly delta (B.1.617.2)
variant transmission, found that the risk of repeat SARS-CoV-2 infection
decreased by 80·5–100% among those who had had COVID-19 previously
(https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00676-9/fulltext#box1).
The reported studies were large and conducted throughout the world.
Another laboratory-based study that analysed the test results of 9119
people with previous COVID-19 from Dec 1, 2019, to Nov 13, 2020, found
that only 0·7% became reinfected after 18 months.
Researchers have also found that people who recovered from SARS-CoV
infection in 2002–03 continue to have memory T cells that are reactive
to SARS-CoV proteins 17 years after that outbreak.
Additionally, a memory B-cell response to SARS-CoV-2 evolves between
1·3 and 6·2 months after infection, which is consistent with longer-term
protection
Of
interest with regard to the threat recovered, unvaccinated people are  to others is the CDC even shows no reported instances of previously
infected people who are infected a 2nd time actually having a viral load
sufficient to transmit it to anyone else.
thimk
thimk
4 years ago
Well has there been any other studies on non covid viruses ? What offers superior protection vaxed or natural immunity > I really think this debacle  is exposing how little we know about infectious disease . There is a dearth of quality research.   It’s a travesty , Your billions for CDC  , billions spent on the war on cancer, et all are  complete mis – allocations .     Wake up, this puppy shutdown the economy and destroyed small businesses , people’s  lively hoods . Has any sovereignty in history ,shutdown its economy , due to a epidemic ?? 
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  thimk
There is abundant research, but if it doesn’t align with the current propaganda, then it’s dismissed. A very simple question is:
We sit here almost 2 years after this thing started, and Fauci and the CDC have no research as to the immunity after recovery?!?!  Really?!?!
The rest of the world does.

Another is,”Why are we not looking at ALL treatments once infected?” The CDC says aspirin helps, steroids help, a whole bunch of off-label medications can help according to the CDC – BUT NOT Ivermectin? The drug Billions of people have taken to nearly eliminate the pandemic level infections in Africa and India, and it cannot even be prescribed here?

…and this doozy from a week or two ago – the CDC says you have a lower risk of dying from ANYTHING if you only get a shot?!?!
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  Yooper
The whole public health & regulation complex has been gradually captured and incorporated in a for profit Pharma. It affects all decisions, including where research money goes, and which people are seen as promising, etc etc.
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Yooper
One of the problems that prolongs the misinformation and propaganda coming from the Federal public health officials/agencies is that there is no way to question them because the media refuses to offer (or actually allow) any opportunities to raise questions.  They refuse to investigate VAERS reports on their own, they refuse to allow MD’s that disagree with the establishment narrative time on their shows to challenge the narrative and they censor any attempts to inject non-approved viewpoints/articles/papers into the discussion.  I regularly get censored on various bigname media sites but I don’t quit trying to break through the stonewalls.
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
4 years ago
Reply to  Yooper
Thanks for the CDC link in the follow-up comment. Hard to wade through such study reports. Hand waving in the footnotes is not an appealing look.
“…and this doozy” : Well, shots correlating with a lower risk of any kind of death doesn’t sound odd. If the shot lowers the impact of a common disease, you gotta figure some shot people are going to be able to have more reserve resources to fend off other dangerous threats. Especially true for the old folks, who, by definition, have few resources in reserve to handle attacks.
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  thimk
Apologies, forgot the link:
“During December 2020–July 2021, COVID-19 vaccine recipients had lower
rates of non–COVID-19 mortality than did unvaccinated persons
after
adjusting for age, sex, race and ethnicity, and study site.”

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7043e2.htm

Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  Yooper
Yes. Once vaccinated you are less likely to fall off the ladder, be struck by lightning, or have a car accident. </sarc>
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  thimk
The balance of risks is not the same for everybody.
If you’re a 93 year old overweight diabetic, the balance of risks likely favors vaccination.
But if you’re a child (article in the Lancet a few weeks back, as does dr Makary,  states that there are no cases of death globally from Covid for a healthy child) the balance of risks is quite different. Of course, the risks are different if you have leukemia or some other illness.
There is a big problem with many statistics, dissolved from context and the proper denominator.
TheWindowCleaner
TheWindowCleaner
4 years ago
The relevant consideration is, “What is the safest and surest way to immunization? That is obviously vaccination. Every other consideration is probably inflenced by politics and/or anecdotal less than unscientific bias.  
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
“What is the safest and surest way to immunization? That is obviously vaccination.”

True, but only if you get infected and recover, and at high risk for hospitalization.

If you really whiteboard out the policy and resulting effect in the US, it’s to push everyone into vaccinations, encourage transmission among those who think they’re immune with a vacc (think De blasio in New York), so the population develops natural immunity without pressuring the medical system.

Thalamus
Thalamus
4 years ago

The problem with saying:  “Vaccination is a far
safer, more reliable strategy for acquiring immunity, given the risks of
serious illness or death from infection…”  is the data being used
to make this assumption is not accurate.  People with only one jab, or who
haven’t waited 14 days since their second jab, are considered
unvaccinated.  Most of the adverse events, including death, occur during
this “unvaccinated window.”  Declining T and B cells post jab,
similar to AIDS, is also a big warning flag against long-term efficacy. 
And, the most logical argument is the Flu shot against the Coronavirus. 
It has never given long-lasting immunity, only one flu season, and up to 50%
efficacy at that.  Covid-19 is a Coronavirus and is therefore under the
same laws of physics (short-term immunity) as the Flu Shot operates under.  This is proven
with the “breakthrough” cases so far, and the Delta Variant
hospitalizing vaccinated populations (despite the press/hospitals quoting fake
numbers).  You can’t, with current technology, provide immunity for the
ever-changing Coronaviruses–so why try on the whole world population? 
  This is a Luciferian/Marxist takeover of the world population under the
guise of saving the world from a Pandemic.   

Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
I generally support the claim that acquired immunity is good…..at least as good as being vaccinated, maybe better.
The problem is…..I don’t see that risking serious disease or death to acquire it makes much sense when there is a fairly decent vaccine that prevents almost all serious illness and has extremely low risk.
Boosters are no big deal to me……as long as they work.
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
Reasonably speaking, the best route especially for high risk people is to get vacc’d, then get COVID for a lasting natural immunity.

…or get a booster every 4-6 months forever?

Eddie_T
Eddie_T
4 years ago
Reply to  Yooper
Since COVID is not going away, I expect for people in my line of work to be exposed sooner or later.  So I might get the chance to find out if you’re right. Fwiw, I expect yearly boosters to be the norm, not every 4-6 months. 
Omicron quite possibly might be the highly-transmissible but far-less-deadly variant that could give us all immunity without killing us. That is what you might tend  to conclude from Dr. Coetzee’s remarks.
The patients in Johannesburg didn’t seem to be getting very sick. In Soweto, however, the reports are not quite so reassuring. The difference is that in Johannesburg more patients are vaxxed. You might conclude that means the vax is working against the O variant…but I think it’s to early to really tell.
I do think it’s probably somewhat overblown, and that markets are not going to be affected much beyond the next few days. jmho
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
“Omicron quite possibly might be the highly-transmissible but
far-less-deadly variant that could give us all immunity without killing
us.”

Very interesting comment… maybe that’s how these things die out…

Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
Prediction, especially about the future is rife with error. The Omicron variate has probably been circulating in Africa for a while now and has only been picked up through whole-genome sequencing of samples which took place in South Africa because that country has a highly- developed medical community so it does it more than others. It has probably been circulating well before then but hadn’t been picked up because the symptoms are not sever.  If true and I hope kit its is, then this would be the last hurrah of the virus before it becomes just another endemic coronavirus of which there are many. Endgame is here but we have to have one good scare (short) before it’s over.
Jackula
Jackula
4 years ago
Reply to  Doug78
I think I already had the Omicron variant here in LA last week. Exact symptoms of a mild case after going to a big dinner party 3 days earlier with a bunch of world travellers. Mild headache, achey, and tired as hell. Lasted a day and a half. Was about to test but was feeling better. I’ve had Covid New Years 2020 and the J&J vaxx. Avoiding a booster because my immune system is primed. Immune system has been firing off a lot since I rejoined the human race in public, Dodger games, big indoor events…
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
What you are saying may well be, but the vaxxed might be more instead of less at risk (than the unvaxed) on rechallenge by a new version.
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  Yooper
No. That logic would apply to a therapeutic medicine which mitigates symptoms.
Infection after the vax does not reproduce the natural response.
There is even a name for a mismatch between the response to rechallenge and the vax elicited response, known as OAS (original antigenic sin).
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej
Since the Steelers are getting crushed, this is my Sunday (and thank you).
Had to post it 🙂

refers to the propensity of the body’s https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immune_system to preferentially utilize https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunological_memory based on a previous https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infection when a second slightly different version of that foreign pathogen (e.g. a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacterium) is encountered. This leaves the immune system “trapped” by the first response it has made to each [by a vaccine]
and unable to mount potentially more effective responses during
subsequent infections
. Antibodies or T-cells induced during infections
with the first variant of the pathogen are subject to a form of original
antigenic sin, termed repertoire freeze.

davebarnes2
davebarnes2
4 years ago
“from Covid-19 infection is at least as strong as that from vaccination”, but the average financial cost is quite different.
I would have no problem with your thesis if we deny Covid hospital services to the unvaccinated and let them “die at home with dignity”.
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  davebarnes2
So logically, we do the same and deny treatments with anything else that costs hospitals money:
– too fat? 5 foot 10 inches tall and over 175 pounds, go away. Obesity is the premier comorbidity
– drink alcohol?
– take all those medications on TV that clearly says y’all die with the side effects?
– don’t get a flu shot, and get sick?
– eat Hot Pockets and McDonalds?

Brookings had a poll showed that 41% of democrats think that any COVID infection results in hospitalization. CLEARLY not the case and impacts policy decisions like you proposed.

Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Yooper
Yup.  Less than 1% of Covid infections result in hospitalization!
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  davebarnes2
Very few infections result in hospitalization; better therapeutics (or permission to use) would make a big difference.
(? Uttar Pradesh; Japan)
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
documented prior infection should count as proof of immunity—as is the case in some other countries, including much of Europe
This is not actually true. The 2G status only applies for 6 months, excluding all those who had Covid early on, when testing was unavailable.
The status also counts a positive PCR test as Covid, without any serological confirmation of an actual case.
The  1G 2G 3G (German geïmpft/genezen/getest, ‘vaxed/recovered/tested’) basically comes down to vaxed-only or vaxed + 24hour test status, and 2G is functionally the same as 1G. The vaxxed are assumed to block transmission & infection, even though we know they can be asymptomatic spreaders who do not stay home sick, lacking symptoms).
whirlaway
whirlaway
4 years ago
Well, no reasonable person has said that they will not get the flu vaccine in year X because they had the flu in the year X-1.   Why?   Because seasonal flu virus mutates every year, and every time that happens, the virus is new and so should be the vaccine.    In fact, they are more likely to rush to get the vaccine because they were made to realize how awful flu can be.  
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  whirlaway
Apples & oranges.  Also different vax technologies.
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
  • Is your titer of measles anti-bodies sky high? No. The body economizes, but can ramp up production.
  • Do people with a healthy immune system produce high titers of nAbs? No. It is those with a weak immune reaction who become very very ill and have the highest antibody titers.
  • Do the vaccines produce higher nAbs titers. Yes. 10-100× that of natural immunity. Does this mean you are better protected? No. The high levels elicited by the doses (normally one uses minimum immunogenetic dosing, to avoid adverse events and complications) are sooner testimony to advance knowledge by Pharma that the immunity would not last 6 months otherwise.
  • The whole discussion has been plagued by antibody level fetishism, assuming a direct correlation between nAbs titers and immunity, and the denial of natural immunity. This makes no sense. Viruses replicate inside the cells, and nAbs circulate outside the cells in the serum. They prevent cell entry, but not replication. The most important immune defense against viruses, is attacking cells that are infected, not nAbs.
  • Reinfection analyses are plagued by relying on a positive PCR test, without confirmation of seropositive IgG antibodies, while we know that a positive PCR test at 35 Ct only contains reproduction viable virions in 3% of the cases. So many of the reinfection ‘cases’ had a PCR positive but did not actually catch (confirmed) Covid disease.
  • How broad is natural immunity? Broad enough that people with sars1 antibodies still react to sars2, and 80% of the people on the Diamond Princess were not infected, despite being old and sleeping in the same huts as others who were, because of cross-immunity! This is why the initial exponential modeling failed … they were assuming everybody was immunologically naïve and susceptible.
Natural infection is sterilizing, and prevents transmission. Your body’s first line of defense is the mucous membranes, but to the immune system this is the outside of your body, like skin. Vaccine elicits responses inside your body, but not in the mucous membranes, particularly in the nasal pharynx, which are initially colonized by the (respiratory) virus.
SAKMAN1
SAKMAN1
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej
Natural infection is sterilizing? I’ve read the debates between FDA/CDC and companies (that were granted EUAs with the word “neutralizing” in the intended use) claiming to have tests that can determine neutralizing levels of antibodies.
Last I heard, FDA refuses to allow language suggesting that a particular titer level results in neutralization, let alone sterilization.
Asymptomatic infection has been shown to result in much lower and much less durable antibody titers than a long nasty infection. Further, reinfection post asymptomatic infection is well known.
The problem I see with all of these debates is a system complexity that is far beyond the cognitive capabilities of the average person. The answer is actually a moving target because the virus itself, if you can even call it one thing at this point, is a moving target. The brains of most people cant handle moving targets. Black and white, conservative and liberal, rich and poor, are just fine for them. They need big conceptual buckets to throw things into.
FDA and CDCs problem is two fold, and requires strong scientific answers and data to these problems.
1) Antibodies vs. Variant (and now strain?). Does your natural infection from Jan 2020 SARS-CoV-2 sterilize you vs Omicron (which might be SARS-CoV-3)? Did it sterilize vs Delta?
2) If so, as before what titer level is neutralizing? What titer is sterilizing?
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  SAKMAN1
Both organizations are now nothing more than politicians who use science when necessary to support their policy, and discredit science otherwise. The biggest issue is antibodies as a standard. The immune system is far more complex, and they NEVER discuss B/T cells in the discourse. I linked to many studies by the Lancet, NIH, and the Cleveland Clinic that do show that antibody levels alone do not demonstrate neutralizing immunity.
…CDC even shows no reported instances of previously
infected people who are infected a 2nd time actually having a viral load
sufficient to transmit it to anyone else.
I would suggest if you cannot transmit it to others without getting sick, that constitutes neutralizing.
The big question is how to test for “neutralizing levels” because it’s NOT just the anitbodies currently in your bloodstream

SAKMAN1
SAKMAN1
4 years ago
Reply to  Yooper
It is easy to find manuscripts aiming to evaluate the severity of reinfections, and further, many instances of reinfections that were severe enough to land the person in the hospital. Are you saying these hospitalized people were not contagious? That feels far fetched to me.
The problem remains exactly what I stated initial, the “reinfections” are not actually reinfections, it is a primary infection from a variant. If I wasnt 100% clear.
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  SAKMAN1
You are confusing two different things.
Neutralizing refers to neutralizing antibodies (nAbs); these are distinguished from binding antibodies.
Antibodies bind to proteins of the antigen, and are very important in fighting bacteria. The affinity with which they bind differs among various types of antibodies. During immune response, your body selects for the B-cells which produce the best antibodies, so there is a gradual maturation process (which takes time) in developing tighter binding antibodies … itself somewhat of a miracle. People with asymptomatic/light infections often have insufficiently matured antibodies, which are less effective, but these people manage to eliminate the virus without getting enough time for the B-cells/antibodies to maturate, but nevertheless eliminate the virus without them because there are a lot of moving parts to your immune system. Neutralizing antibodies are those that block entry of the virus particles into your cells. Neutralizing antibodies can perform without recruiting other immune cells to finish up, although binding antibodies often signal to the immune system to get rid of whatever matter (bacteria) they are stuck to. Sometimes binding antibodies actually enhance the infection. There is no way to say what level of antibodies is neutralizing … it also depends on the quality/affinity, on whether the antibodies are neutralizing, on which antigen epitopes that they attach to. Your body makes various antibodies to a whole slough of antigen epitopes.
Sterilizing is not a step up from neutralizing but characterizes the type of immunity, not the quality. Sterilizing means you can’t be infected and can’t infect others. There used to be two polio vaccines (Salk/Sabin), the Salk was prophylactic but not sterilizing, the Sabin was sterilizing but in some cases reverted to the unattenuated form of the virus, causing outbreaks and harming people without protection … that is why for a long time they administered both types, but in non-endemic situations there is no danger from the oral version. The problem with leaky  (non-sterilizing) vaccines in the middle of an epidemic is that they change the evolutionary preferential pressure on the virus. Normally a more contagious variant wins from a less contagious variant, but a more lethal variant tends to have more trouble spreading (b/c the host dies or isolates sick) which makes it less contagious. A leaky vaccine removes the cost-side of being more lethal, since the host is protected, and in vaccines for animal diseases has lead to cases of the virus becoming more dangerous, instead of less dangerous but more contagious.
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej
Very good explanation.
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej
This is one of those copy/paste posts for reference…. Thank you!
Jojo
Jojo
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej
Very nice!
SAKMAN1
SAKMAN1
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej
You say that sterilizing immune responses are not a function of the quality of the antibodies, it is a type of immune response. Lets throw in affinity and quantity in as well since those are qualities. If a vaccine produces antibodies, what would make that antibody response sterilizing vs neutralizing? I mean it is obviously quantity and affinity (qualities), but go ahead and explain. While you are at it, do you think that a vaccinated person that has a great response to the vaccines and generates a huge amount of high quality antibodies is sterile? I do. Further, even if there were no good memory cells formed they will remain sterile until the titer drops below some point, and they will be able to neutralize the virus until the titer drops below a certain point. So, there certainly is a titer level, for each person, that is sterilizing or neutralizing. We dont have meaningful data to tell us what it is, and it certainly varies quitr a bit, but it certainly exists.
I agree that memory B cells are not often discussed, and certainly a good memory can result in the body rapidly producing high quality antibodies which can result in sterilization. Sterilization and neutralization are on the same spectrum, and that spectrum is related to the quantity and quality of antibodies that are available at any given time point. It is memory B cells, and the events leading to a good response that is off the spectrum, when formed it is a durable source of antibodies and could lead to a more durable ability of a body to be able to quickly fight off and control an reinfection of the same virus.
I think we agree on this. You view sterilizing as being a type of response dependent on memory, I view sterilizing as a function of the available antibodies at any given time. I believe that even without memory that sterilization can be achieved, but that it would be temporal.
The question I posed the first time can be refined to memory vs what?
You claim that natural infection is sterilizing (i.e. develops good memory b cells) vs the virus causing the infection. Fine, I agree, who cares? The next infection will be against a variant of that virus, and if the variant is sufficiently different, effectiveness of the memory is reduced. Its like saying you have math figured out because you’ve passed matrix algebra, problem is you are currently taking a diff eq test.
My point is that if the virus keeps moving, who cares if your natural or vaccinated immunity is better? They both work, and the virus will be doing its best to evade both based on what we have seen. Its just with a vaccine your likelyhood of ground glass opacity in the chest X-ray of your lungs is lower.
Tanner D
Tanner D
4 years ago
Simple answer.   Reinfection vs breakthrough infection.  
Its clear natural antibodies are superior at preventing infection compared to vaccine derived antibodies.  But natural antibodies are vastly more risky to obtain.  
Call_Me
Call_Me
4 years ago
While such a debate might be good for ratings and generating a few memes, one should expect it to provoke as much thought as a modern presidential ‘debate’.  Lincoln and Douglas those two are not.
pimaC
pimaC
4 years ago
Yooper
Yooper
4 years ago
Reply to  pimaC
Thank you!
BillSanDiego
BillSanDiego
4 years ago
Has any doctor ever in history suggested that a person surviving a viral disease should get the vaccine for that disease to “reinforce” the natural immunity that was obtained from having been infected by that virus? Measles? Yellow fever? Mumps? Of course not. So why is the suggestion being made with respect to this virus? Politics.
Has it ever been suggested that a vaccine provides better immunity for any virus than does natural immunity obtained from having been sickened by the virus? It has not. So why is that being claimed for this virus? Politics.
In fact, the opposite is clearly displayed. Natural immunity for measles, mumps, yellow fever, and all other viruses for which natural immunity is created, is robust and lasts a lifetime. Why would this virus be any different? Politics.
These vaccines create short term immunity at best. How would such a thing “reinforce” immunity created by nature? Politics.
Blurtman
Blurtman
4 years ago
Stronger is the wrong question. Broader, yes of course, natural immunity confers much broader immunity than the narrowly defined mRNA products. Another unasked question is which provides better protection against mutants. It would take quite a mutant to evade protection from natural immunity.
Also never discussed is innate immunity. Low affinity and broadly reactive IgM antibodies that help neutralize pathogens at the outset.  Also part of innate immunity are NK cells and other immune cells that possess pattern recognition receptors capable of recognizing and causing a response to infection. If not for innate immunity, humanity would not survive the emergence of novel pathogens.
With regards to the safety of mRNA products, there is zero long-term data.
COVID, like many infectious diseases, is a disease of metabolic unfitness, targeting obese abusers of their own bodies. Ditch the carbs, do cardio, lose weight, don’t smoke, and don’t succumb to the rampant fear mongering.
Doug78
Doug78
4 years ago
Reply to  Blurtman
Very good summary. Broad is better than narrow. Innate immunity is better than broad and narrow together. No long-term data on the vaccines. Covid above all attacks those weakened by comorbidities.  
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear
4 years ago
“Certainly the vaccinations have proven to have fewer complications and lower death rates than being unvaccinated.”
Based on Chris Martenson’s recent podcast, while the number of deaths from vaccine is less than death from COVID in an unvaccinated person, the serious side effects from the vaccine are 10x worse than hospitalizations unvaccinated experience. People under 60 years old experience vaccine side effect more often/ severely than people over 60 years old.
COVID policy in the US focuses only on death, not the big picture which includes vaccine side effects and demographics (age). Policy is saving one life, but harming 4 or 5 for life. Some of those who have experienced severe side effects from the vaccine are committing suicide, but there is no entry on the COVID scorecard.
Zardoz
Zardoz
4 years ago
Reply to  Six000mileyear
Link to those suicide statistics? Oh, they’re being suppressed? Of course they are..:.
RonJ
RonJ
4 years ago
Reply to  Zardoz
You could talk to pro mountain biker Kyle Warner. He said, “Out of the COVID-19 vaccine recovery group, six people commited suicide in the past month or so.”
Webej
Webej
4 years ago
Reply to  Six000mileyear
Focusing just on deaths, why is the all-cause mortality in 2021 higher than 2020, with the vaccines to help us prevent deaths?
Anon1970
Anon1970
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej
Deaths from homicides are way up in Chicago vs. 2020. Deaths from opioids are way up nationally in 2021 vs. 2020. ICU units filled with covid-19 patients delayed some or many surgeries in 2021 vs 2020, leading to premature deaths.
Felix_Mish
Felix_Mish
4 years ago
Reply to  Webej
My eyeball doesn’t see a lot of total-death difference between 2020 and 2021 in the US. Very different wave-form profiles, though.
For fun, you could even tell a story of how the first vaxers, mostly old folks, stopped the big (+45%, peak) flu season last winter. Then vax wear-off caused the Sept 2021 bump. And that’s all she wrote for 2021. 🙂
Here’s the US excess death link again: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

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