Retail sales rose 0.1 percent following a 1.7 percent surge in March.
The Advance Retail Sales report for April shows the expected flattening of consumer spending following the upwardly revised March surge of 1.7 percent from the initial reported 1.4 percent.
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $724.1 billion, up 0.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 5.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from April 2024.
Total sales for the February 2025 through April 2025 period were up 4.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The February 2025 to March 2025 percent change was revised from up 1.5 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 1.7 percent (±0.2 percent).
The key phrase is in italics. These are nominal sales. It’s real (inflation-adjusted) sales that feed GDP.
Month-Over-Month Details
- Total: 0.1
- Excluding Motor Vehicles 0.1
- Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.2
- Motor Vehicles: 0.1
- Food Service: 1.2
- Gas Stations: -0.5
- Nonstore: 0.2
- Food Stores: 0.0
- General Merchandise -0.2
The gyrations in motor vehicles are so wide they distort the chart.
What stands out is unusual quietness. Most categories were between -0.2 percent and +0.2 percent.
In March, consumers acted to get in front of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2.
Advance Retail Sales Millions of Dollars Seasonally Adjusted
Advance Retail Sales Select Categories
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Detail
Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Highlights
- Since January 2020, nominal sales are up 40.52 percent
- Since January 2020, real sales are up 13.72 percent
- Real sales peaked in March of 2021 along with covid stimulus that set inflation on fire.
- Real sales are down 3.16 percent since the covid free money handout.
The vaunted US consumer is largely a mirage of inflation.
Meanwhile, Congressional spending is out of hand and long-term yields have been rising.
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“Real sales are down 3.16 percent since the covid free money handout.” Roughly flat since the beginning of 2021. How remarkable that since the beginning of 2021, the S&P 500 is up about 55%!
A little over a 4 year when retail sales don’t increase but stocks increase 55%. Anything askew with that?
Mish seems just as committed to his tariff-price narrative as the people he berates for Trumpophilia. Both sides of this are delusional and gripped by wishful thinking.
https://www.trustintelligence.co.uk/investor/articles/features-investor-why-tariffs-might-not-terrify-private-equity-investors-may-2025
Attention Walmart shoppers
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/15/walmart-wmt-q1-2026-earnings.html
In an interview with CNBC, Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said tariffs are “still too high” – even with the recently announced agreement to lower duties on imports from China to 30% for 90 days.
“We’re wired for everyday low prices, but the magnitude of these increases is more than any retailer can absorb,” he said. “It’s more than any supplier can absorb. And so I’m concerned that consumer is going to start seeing higher prices. You’ll begin to see that, likely towards the tail end of this month, and then certainly much more in June.”
They Looted Companies — Now They’re Looting the Government
https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/they-looted-companies-now-theyre-looting-the-government
All I know is the real economy is far worse than the financial press would have you believe. As long as the stock market is up, that’s all they care about and they push every bit of news to keep the illusion of a great economy going.
True. Now doesn’t that make Trumps point and Bessent too that the stock market is NOT the U.S. economy? We know its not. But somehow people do not want to just admit that because of their TDS. I do not mean you, but too many people
I also think Trumps Most favored nation drug plan is brilliant and helps all Americans. Its like the Nato of healthcare. Why are american prescription drugs 5 times higher than Europe? if the democrats would have passed this bill they would be hailing this 24/7 on CNN/MSNBC……