A huge jump in gasoline prices led to increased spending in March.
Retail sales were wild in March led by a huge hump in sales at gas stations.
Please consider the Census Department report on Advance Retail Sales for March of 2026.
Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $752.1 billion, up 1.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from March 2025.
Total sales for the January 2026 through March 2026 period were up 3.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The January 2026 to February 2026 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.7 percent (±0.2 percent).
Nonstore retailers were up 10.1 percent (±1.8 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 2.4 percent (±1.9 percent) from March 2025.
The key phrase above is “adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.”
The report only lists nominal sales, not real (inflation-adjusted sales). It’s real sales that feed GDP.
Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month Gasoline
Nominal Retail Sales Month-Over Month Change
- Total: 1.66 percent
- Excluding Motor Vehicles: 1.94 percent
- Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: 0.65 percent
- Motor Vehicles: 0.5 percent
- Food Stores: 0.7 percent
- Nonstore Sales: 1.0 percent
- Gas Stations: 15.45 percent
Those are hot numbers but it’s entirely inflation and gasoline as shown by real spending.
Real Advance Retail Sales Month-Over-Month
Real Advance Retail Sales Percent Change Month-Over-Month
- Total: 0.8 percent
- Excluding Motor Vehicles: 1.1 percent
- Excluding Motor Vehicles and Gas: -0.2 percent
- Motor Vehicles: -0.4 percent
- Food Stores: -0.2 percent
- Nonstore Sales: 0.2 percent
- Gas Stations: 14.6 percent
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales
Real vs Nominal Sales Notes
- Real retail sales peaked in April of 2022 at 228,788. They are now 227,696. That’s a decline of 1,092 or 0.48 percent.
- In April of 2022, nominal sales were 660,194. They are now 752,063. That’s an increase of 91,869 or 13.92 percent.
Over 100 percent of the increase in retail sales since April of 2022 is due to inflation.
Correct me if I am wrong, but didn’t someone campaign on fixing this?
Real vs Nominal Advance Retail Sales Percent Change from Year Ago
Percent Change from Year Ago
- Nominal retail sales year-over year peaked in March of 2025 at 5.2 percent, now 4.0 percent. That’s the number the Commerce Department reports.
- Real retail sales year-over year peaked in March of 2025 at 2.7 percent, now 0.7percent. That’s the number that matters.
Year-over-year retail sales up 0.7 percent from a year ago is an anemic number.
But hey, “Look at the Dow. That’s what everyone should be talking about,” said Attorney General Pam Bondi right before she was fired.
Under questioning from Rep. Jamie Raskin about the DOJ’s handling of Epstein files, a visibly agitated Bondi interrupted to highlight record-breaking stock market highs.
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April 10, 2026: March CPI a Blistering Hot 0.9 Percent Led by Gasoline Up 21 Percent
Inflation in March was a scorcher. Here are some month-over-month and year-over-year charts.
April 16, 2026: Fury Over Electrical Bills Mounts. It’s Another Midterm Election Issue
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April 20, 2026: Trump and Elizabeth Warren Share the Same Price Gouging Belief on Beef
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Looking at my related posts, I believe I need to issue a reminder: “Look at the Dow. That’s what everyone should be talking about.”
There is NO honesty left in any aspect of Government. If you SUDDENLY GET HONEST (MEANING FOLLOWING THE NARRATIVES TO THE LETTER LIKE Bondi, following orders, even), then you get canned.
Weird times, these.
I recall Grandpa saying: “I can’t win for losin’.”
Inflation is not growth.
That is one way to simulate an economy.
TACO TUESDAY!!!!
“I MAKE THE BEST TACOS, NO ONE MAKES TACOS LIKE ME, THE BEST TACOS EVER IN HISTORY!!!!”
These are the greatest Tacos of any Century!
Iran says not going to Pakistan for peace talks. Will bombs drop tomorrow?
Lol….Trump extending cease fire deadline. TACO Tuesday!
Fed up of this cat and mouse game on and off.
Depends on how long the US thinks it needs to reload and take another swing.
The “ceasefire” was intended only for that purpose.
Well I say there is a 90% chance Trump will drop bombs AFTER market close on Friday. Monday market open will be chaos, it’s a visible pattern.
Everyone that positioned with short positions will make out like bandits. Oil will probably spike to $130 or more.
Then we’ll get a new “greatest deal” announcement which will juice markets and again, those positioned for profits will make out like bandits. Heck, I think even Iran is probably now getting in on the action. They’d be dumb not to profit off of this mess.
Of course, the military may need more time and Trump can TACO on any day.
Where is Doug and his list of items that Trump will force the Iranians to agree to?
Trump says he extended the ceasefire at the request of Pakistan. Lol!
Trump says the blockade remains in effect, but 2 cargo ships and 1 Iranian tanker exited the strait without the US Navy stopping them.
Jun Brent over $100.
Bonds rising. Vix rising. Airlines running out of jet fuel.
US 10-YR
4.311 +0.061
US 20-YR
4.897 +0.048
US 30-YR
4.913 +0.032
Will bombs drop tomorrow?
Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council told CNBC that Trump’s Golden Age is upon us by citing dropping prices of eggs.
Most of Trump’s economic team continually flouts the idea that since the price of eggs has dropped there is no affordability crisis and it’s a media hoax.
Let them eat eggs
Trumps Team must be getting only Scrambled Eggs ….to get those results?
Currency tendered, UP.
Goods and services rendered, DOWN.
Sounds profitable eh?
The Trump administration is one giant hurricane across the US and world. Full of high bloviating winds and hot air. From tariff disaster to Epstien to ICE and now energy disaster, the catastrophic damage of these clowns knows no bound or end.
How are you MAGA fools loving those high gas prices? Loving the golden age yet?
Do worry, Trump will find a way to make things even worse.™
You gave two Trumpers very tender feet. How mean of you 😉