Bloomberg writers say soaring power bills threaten to swing US elections.
Electoral Politics
Please consider Electric Fury by Bloomberg writers Josh Saul and Ari Natter.
Across the country, soaring electricity costs are burdening consumers and stirring voter anger. The rapid build-out of artificial intelligence data centers, along with tariffs and upgrades to an aging grid, has raised power prices at rates unseen in decades. The war in Iran is throwing global energy markets into upheaval, adding a surge in gasoline prices to affordability concerns.
The energy strains have propelled the once-mundane utility bill to the center of US politics, a place it hasn’t occupied since electricity became a staple of American life. After a 2024 election in which voter concerns over inflation and the economy helped send Donald Trump back to the White House, the outcome of this year’s midterms stands to be as much about the price of power as the price of groceries.
Trump himself brought up the issue in his February State of the Union speech, unveiling a plan to have tech companies build their own power plants for their AI data centers. It was the first time in the history of the annual address that a president explicitly framed rising electric bills as a consumer concern.
“It’s completely unprecedented in modern history for it to be talked about nationally and for it to be a campaign issue,” says Joshua Basseches, a Tulane University professor who studies energy policy. “It’s the thing that’s on voters’ minds.”
The pressure will intensify. The North American Electric Reliability Corp., the country’s grid security regulator, forecasts that US power demand in summer will rise 224 gigawatts over the next decade—roughly the equivalent of adding 180 million homes. One analyst said the last comparable surge came during World War II.
Pennsylvania’s 7th District, a mix of rolling mountains and former manufacturing strongholds clustered along the Lehigh River, will be a proving ground for the issue’s importance. Republican Representative Ryan Mackenzie is facing a tight race against Democratic challengers including Carol Obando-Derstine, a former utility employee campaigning on cutting power costs. Both agree that power prices should come down. But like so many other affordability debates in American politics, unity on the problem dissolves into division over the solution.
“Republicans will likely be held more to account for this issue, even if at a policy level they may not deserve as much of the blame as they will be receiving,” says Charlie Dent, a Republican who held the Lehigh Valley congressional seat now occupied by Mackenzie from 2005 to 2018. Mackenzie, who beat the incumbent Democrat in 2024 by just 4,000 votes, stands to be particularly vulnerable. The campaign arm of House Democrats has zeroed in on the race, issuing a February press release quoting local residents complaining about their electric bills.
What’s Going On?
- California’s residential electricity rates are close to double those in the rest of the US in large part because of the state’s ambitious climate policies and costs tied to preventing wildfires.
- In Pennsylvania, power plant retirements are squeezing supply as data centers are stoking demand. The state’s electricity comes from the PJM Interconnection power grid, the nation’s largest, stretching over 13 states from the Midwest to the East Coast. Residential electricity rates on this grid have risen rapidly since 2020, with the three states that gave PJM its name—Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland—seeing increases of about 40% in that time, according to BloombergNEF.
- On the PJM grid, data centers will add at least $23 billion to customer bills over the three years ending in May 2028, according to Monitoring Analytics, the grid’s independent market monitor.
Electoral Politics
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, has backed data center development, joining executives from PPL and private capital giant Blackstone Inc. last year to praise their plan to build gas plants to power the facilities. But he also filed a lawsuit against PJM in 2024 over price hikes, resulting in a settlement that his office says saved PJM customers $18 billion, and has continued to push PJM on reforms to keep bills in check.
Several of the Democrats running against Obando-Derstine in Pennsylvania’s May primary have also made power bills part of their platform. Bob Brooks, president of the state firefighters union, has a platform to “crack down on price-gouging utility monopolies.” The platform of Ryan Crosswell, who resigned as a federal prosecutor to protest Trump’s dropping corruption charges against then-New York City Mayor Eric Adams, includes “fighting the construction of any AI data center built in or around PA-07 that would increase energy costs for Lehigh Valley families.”
Customers are still angry. They’ve been turning out in large numbers at the public hearings over PPL’s planned rate increases and flooding regulators with handwritten complaints about rising bills and reliability.
“Please, put a stop to this, we are stretched thin as it is,” wrote Shirley Turner, adding that her husband is a veteran of the Korean War and has dementia. “There has to be a stop to these rising prices. We need our electricity!!” The owner of the historic Americus Hotel in Allentown said his monthly power bills have jumped from around $14,000 to $18,500.
Jose Echevarria, an Allentown warehouse supervisor who voted for Trump in 2024 and cites Second Amendment protections as his biggest issue, was used to his PPL bills coming in around $200 in the winter months. The 50-year-old was astounded when his most recent bill hit $367. “I’ll vote for whoever has big ideas to make it lower,” says Echevarria, who grew up in Puerto Rico and drives his gold Ford Fusion for Uber to make ends meet. “It doesn’t matter if they’re a Republican or a Democrat.”
Evidence of Demand Outpacing Supply
- Explosive demand growth: AI and data centers are the dominant driver of the strongest U.S. electricity demand surge since 2000. EIA forecasts record consumption in 2025–2027, with data centers fueling much of the acceleration (U.S. demand rising ~1% in 2026 and ~2–3% in 2027 after years of near-flat growth). Energy Information Agency
- Projections show data center power needs roughly doubling or tripling by 2028 (e.g., from ~4% of U.S. electricity today to 6.7–12% or higher), with AI as the fastest-growing segment. Global data center electricity is expected to more than double by 2030, with the U.S. accounting for a huge share. belfercenter.org +1Pipeline demand is enormous: Analyses point to 183–220 GW of additional data center power demand in the U.S. pipeline (much of it AI-related and with firm commitments), equivalent to ~22% of current peak U.S. demand. Belfer Center
- New generation capacity is being added (e.g., record solar, storage, and some gas), but it often doesn’t match the speed, location, or reliability (24/7 baseload) that AI data centers require. Transmission buildout, interconnection queues, transformers, and permitting take 3–10+ years, creating bottlenecks. Woodmac
- Morgan Stanley projects a ~49 GW power shortfall for U.S. data centers by 2028.
- In hotspots like Northern Virginia (Data Center Alley), PJM, ERCOT (Texas), and parts of the Midwest, demand is outpacing available capacity, leading to project delays, higher capacity prices, and utilities scrambling. belfercenter.org
- Reports indicate 30–50% of planned 2026 data center projects face delays or cancellations due to power/grid constraints (and related equipment shortages). Some completed facilities sit idle waiting for connections. Yahoo
It’s Not THE Issue
Electricity is a problem for sure. However, electricity prices are not “the thing that’s on voters’ minds,” as the article puts it.
It may be the top issue in sections of Pennsylvania. But in other places the top concern may be rent, HOAs, property taxes, food, jobs, deportations, gasoline prices, the war, homeowner’s insurance, health insurance, or even Trump’s war with the Pope.
Voters are upset over an entire gamut of things. For farmers it’s diesel, fertilizer, and tariff retaliations.
However, this is an issue Trump brought upon himself. That increases the importance.
Trump’s Energy Pledge
- Clip 1: With the Trump economic plan, we will will cut your energy prices in half within – lock it down – you can get get very angry at me if we don’t do it – but within 12 months your energy prices will be cut in half.
- Clip 2: My plan will cut energy prices in half or more than that within 12 months of taking office.
- Clip 3: Number one, your energy bill within 12 months will be cut in half. That’s my pledge all over the country. To farmers, that’s my pledge all over the country.
- Clip 4: If you vote for me, I will cut your energy and electricity in half within 12 months. We’re gonna cut them down.
- Clip 5: And under my plan we will cut energy and electricity in half within 12 months. And that means your homes too.
- Clip 6: I will cut your energy and electricity prices in half. 50 percent. Five O, within 12 months of taking office.
- Clip 7. My plan will cut energy prices in half within 12 months. We’re gonna have energy prices for businesses, but in my opinion maybe even more importantly for the average household by 12 months from January 20th which is the day we go into office.
- Clip 8: I will cut the price of energy and electricity in half. Ready? 12 months from January 20, your electric bill, including cars, air conditioners, heating, everything. Your total electric bill will be fifty, five o, fifty percent less. We’re gonna cut it in half.
- Clip 9: And I will cut energy and electricity prices in half within 12 months of taking office. Fifty percent.
- Clip 10: The pledge that I am making now, and we’ve done this a little bit over the last month or so, we are going to bring energy down by 50 percent, five o percent, fifty percent within 12 months from January 20.
Portions of those clips are guaranteed to make some great campaign ads for the midterm elections.
How Big Will the “Blue Wave” Be in the Midterm Elections?
On April 12, I asked How Big Will the “Blue Wave” Be in the Midterm Elections?
I expect Republicans will lose nearly every seat the consensus now labels as tossup.
My base case is the Democrats win the House and Senate. I have as many as 6 Senate seats pickups in play. Click for discussion.
Related Posts
January 30, 2026: Dear Zoomers, Trump Says He “Wants to Drive Up Housing Prices”
I don’t want to drive housing prices down. I want to drive housing prices up. They can be sure that’s what’s gonna happen.“
Somehow, I doubt Gen Z will like this message.
On March 30, 2026, I cautioned Powell Warns the Markets and Trump that His Patience with Inflation Has Limits
Powell’s speech was to Harvard students but read between the lines.
Powell’s warning was aimed straight at Trump.
April 10, 2026: March CPI a Blistering Hot 0.9 Percent Led by Gasoline Up 21 Percent
Inflation in March was a scorcher. Here are some month-over-month and year-over-year charts.
On April 10, 2026, I noted Consumer Sentiment Drops to Record Low in April, Consumers Blame the War
The war and resultant inflation is what forced capitulation by Trump.
On the one political side there are Pres. Trump’s policies for promoting more jobs and lower costs. So far no one else on the Republican side takes credit for better ideas.
On the other D political side the progressives are in front, speaking loudly of ‘affordability’, but with few proposals that can be believed to actually provide it. We can guess that they will put us back on a trajectory to netzero economy, which means higher energy prices unless we do the sane thing of using much less energy. They will seek a higher minimum wage, jumping 2x past the old call for $15/hour to $30/hour. We who do well have to share that with the lower classes, or do it ourselves or do without. Leveling the income distribution. Sen. Sanders hijacks a Trump idea and converts it to his own use = tax the rich much more and pay $3,000 to everyone in the bottom quartile. Would that work as he describes?
It looks like we are screwed, situated between two sets of bad ideas. The only comfort is that we are richer than most-anyone-else in the world and can afford the hit.
Stop derivatives trading on energy and even shut down ETFs, and the price of oil will drop by 50%. There is so much money in these assets it is distorting the price of oil.
Data centers should have to pay more per WhatsApp than those using power to simply live
The Epstein Empire and the Epstein Class could not care less about your electricity bill. They know you are a subject of the Epstein Empire, and as their subject you WILL pay and pay dearly.
Everywhere prices skyrocketed are blue states. CT didn’t skyrocket during this time because it was already the most expensive in the country. So what does this mean for the 2026 midterms? NOT a total wipeout for the GOP?
I strongly suspect that average California rates exceed those in CT and that Pacific Gas & Electric charges higher electricity rates than any utility in CT does..
So I guess the AI-generated porn isn’t actually “free”?
Neither Republicans or Democrats are going to be able to bring down prices in any meaningful way unless massive amounts of new supply are brought online.
Since it’s all but impossible to get massive amounts of supply online in the short term (1-2 years) absolutely nothing is going to get done about these prices.
Welcome to feudalism 2.0. As the concentration of real wealth and power continues, this is where we are heading. The funny thing about the real economy is that the laws of men are less relevant than the laws of physics. The bottom line is society requires a lot of consumable calories (energy) in order to make or do anything. Unfortunately, the average person is an absolute moron and knows nothing about physics.
Hedge accordingly.
The year is 2028. NASDAQ is celebrating 500 consecutive up days as Trump continually tweets about how great the deal with Iran will be, despite no additional talks having taken place in 2 years…
Brent oil still trades at $100, though physical cargoes trade hands at $500 a barrel. Everyone thinks this is totally normal…
Datacenters now consume $5 trillion of capital annually, despite producing only $50 billion of annual revenues. No one is quite sure how to monetize them, but they build them in the hope that someone else will crack the code…
$MSTR ran out of letters in the alphabet for new preferred securities. The Ponzi is still failing…
Private Credit vehicles have been gated for 3 years now. They trade on the secondary market at 10c of face. Marketing documents focus on the low realized volatility of PIK return streams…
Europe is rolling out its 27th round of climate taxes as it desperately tries to stave off economic collapse…
From @hkuppy on X posted today.
Great fun but what if a part or two become true?
Yep. “AI” (machine learning – had this since the 70’s) and data centers will turn out to be the greatest mis-allocation of capital and resources the world has ever known.
Drill baby, drill….
Fatburger Americans better get used to no central air this summer…maybe try getting healthier, get up from behind the keyboard and do something useful…go outside and get some fresh air — plastic-bag-snack eating retards
Nuclear is the answer…A-I will build it with Japaneses sex robots
Trump does usually deliver – always more pain. Tariffs for example were to lower prices and generate revenue. Almost everyone knew this was insanity; we get higher prices, scarcity and pay the tariff to boot! Tariffs are also corporate welfare. Energy: the orange ass could have rolled back the epa, but no dice! We all have to pay higher rates for ‘renewable’, ‘sustainable’ energy which never was viable. No coal fire plants -or very few- are left. No new nuke plants – it takes ten years to get approval. Same with cars and ridiculous cafe requirements – major costs to consumers who had no choice or options. But the big one is the freaking war and all the hyenas with an R after their name voting to keep the war going. (Except Rand Paul) And let’s give the war dept another $200B for the war and $1.5T for them in next year’s budget. More good times coming for affordability! Who the heck would even buy our ‘debt instruments’ anymore?
Mr Paulson says they won’t, very soon (cf Bloomberg interview)
here’s a guy who can feel your pain:
Trump: “Millions of American small businesses, including corner stores. What is a corner store? I’ve never heard that term. I know what a corner store is but I’ve never heard it described– a corner store. Who the hell wrote that?”
Every data center should have its own windmill.
Even if you force data centers to generate their own power, they would end up competing with utilities for the same resources; and still increase power prices
for consumers. It doesn’t matter if it’s wind, solar or gas.
Trump says all this “energy stuff” is “fake inflation”. I am sure MAGA voters adopt this as their new “inflation gospel”.
Fake inflation? Perhaps we can pay for it using fake dollars. I’ve already raided my monopoly game.
It’s all because the Democrats shut down the most reliable and cheap energy available
Coal fired plants. Windmills and solar panels
Will not save the day, its the number one cause of higher electrical bills, someone’s gotta pay for all that BS.
Nope. Wrong on all counts. Which is pretty amazing. It’s hard to be 100% wrong, even if you are an idiot.
First. Coal is not cheap. Natural gas and renewables are much cheaper than coal.
Second. Electricity is not expensive because of renewables. It is expensive because demand exceeds supply.
Third. Far more coal generation and coal mines were closed under Trump than Biden or Obama.
Fourth. During Trump’s first term 48 GW of coal generation shut down and 7000 jobs were lost in just 4 years. More than Biden and Obama combined in 12 years.
Fifth. Look at the numbers. We need 86 GW of additional electricity this year. Where will it come from? Not coal. No new coal generation planned by Trump. Not nuclear. We aren’t building any new nuclear power plants. Natural gas. Yes. 6 GW planned. We could do a bit more if there wasn’t a 3-5 year backlog on natural gas turbines.
So we are short 80 GW of new generation. So prices for electricity will keep going up unless we can find another source.
Fortunately there is another source: solar, and wind.
Sixth: One of the states leading the way is the great oil and gas state of Texas. In 2025 they added 20 GW of solar, 5 GW of wind, and 2 GW of natural gas generation. No coal. No nuclear. They went with what was cheapest and available.
Thank God the President didn’t put any tariffs on imported solar panels! And thank God the President is maintaining great relations with China! And thank God the President hasn’t done anything to tighten the flow of nat gas out of the Middle East! He’s a genius of 5d chess!
Trump’s average IQ voter thinks you just owned the libz hard
With a name like Rex River, I wouldn’t expect your shirt to have sleeves but your beer does.
Why is anyone shocked? All those angry people should have been reading Mishtalk. From TWO years ago almost to the day…
https://mishtalk.com/economics/ai-cryptocurrency-will-double-data-center-energy-consumption-by-2026/
Well it’s 2026 and here we are….ta da! It’s like magic. Did anyone here position for profits knowing what was coming? Since everyone is whining and complaining I suspect not.
So here’s your SECOND BIG CHANCE. Read what Mish wrote today:
Some of the things listed in that paragraph may be remedied but I am highly doubtful. If anything more issues will be piled on and I predict water shortages (data center and over farming), diseases running rampant (e.g. measles, fungus, etc), labor spikes (demographic death spiral & immigrant hatred), and massive inflation. You’ve got 1000 more days of clown in charge so use your imagination.
So the obvious question for today is how will you prepare for what’s coming?
For me the answer is easy: Got exit strategy?
And then there is this gem which was a debate (2023) between ICE and EV cars and it’s perfectly timely as oil disruptions lead to thirsty petrol cars all over the world.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/bidens-trillion-dollar-clean-energy-grab-bag-in-pictures-and-quotes/
What are the odds that a new democrat administration will flip the switch back to EV’s citing the oil crisis Trump caused? A prudent investor might want to take a look at all the “green” industry that was tossed under Trump to position for profits.
I love reading the comments. Poor Kidhorn though EVs would be in every garage by now. Too bad he got banned, would be good to hear about his current views now. It’s always a hope that view evolve with circumstances, evidence, failures and successes.
Of course, if you hypothesise Trump being a russian asset, all that makes perfect sense.
Who cares about hypotheses when the fact is that Trump is a Zionist asset?
JD just told the Turning Points gathering that the Trump administration had brought down electrical prices as promised. I guess this happens when you do not pay your own bills.
…dem gibz
Meanwhile Trump is trying to stop new renewable projects
• The Trump administration is paying nearly $1 billion to TotalEnergies, a French energy company, to abandon offshore wind projects off the U.S. East Coast.
• The payment functions as a refund for offshore wind leases the company purchased during the Biden administration.
• In exchange, TotalEnergies agrees not to build the wind farms and instead shift investment toward natural gas and other fossil fuel projects in Texas and the Gulf of Mexico.
• This move follows multiple failed attempts by the administration to block offshore wind through executive orders and legal challenges. Courts repeatedly ruled against those attempts.
• The payout is described as a new tactic: if the administration cannot stop wind projects through regulation or litigation, it will pay companies to walk away.
Key details from each source
• The Guardian reports the U.S. will pay $928 million to cancel two offshore wind leases and redirect investment into LNG and shale gas. It frames the move as part of a broader pattern of dismantling offshore wind capacity.
• The Independent confirms the same figure and notes that internal documents show the administration is preparing settlements to terminate the New York and North Carolina wind projects. It also highlights that this follows a series of courtroom defeats.
• AP News describes the payment as a “novel tactic” in Trump’s long-running campaign against offshore wind, emphasizing that the administration is shifting from regulatory obstruction to direct financial buyouts.
What this means
• The administration is actively using federal money to halt renewable energy development.
• The policy is not about delaying projects — it is about permanently removing them from the pipeline.
• The deal also binds TotalEnergies to avoid new U.S. offshore wind projects going forward.
• Critics argue this sets a dangerous precedent for paying companies to abandon clean energy.
• Supporters argue it is a way to reverse Biden-era green energy initiatives and expand fossil fuel production.
He just lives in the past with his big money contributors
No understanding of a resilient energy network
Papa,
I wanted to say thank you for sticking around and posting comments, looking back at comments from even 2022, you had foresight and insight to see what was coming.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/us-industries-are-buckling-under-pressure-of-surging-electricity-costs/
Lots of profits all that time from 2022 to today and hopefully more to follow.
You are awarded a 3-star Mishelin comment award and lifetime best commenter award.
Thanks. I appreciate your comments as well.
That was worth going back to check on. Kudos
Seems strange to me the Federal government would get involved in a State issue (power generation).
Even stranger is that somehow the individual states are allowing the Feds to usurp their control over it.
Unless offshore projects are Federally controlled as opposed to onshore ones that belong to the states.
I expect that building those projects requires Federal money-help. So which is cheaper, completing the build or paying those companies to walk away?
Basically, this is the government using federal funds to influence what should be free market decisions and then living with the consequences whether it be profit or loss. Biden and Obama encouraged green energy and Trump is discouraging it. Both are wrong, let the free market work without subsidies to go forth or shut down.
Worth checking: Are these payouts to stop offshore wind projects smaller than the net payout to the same companies to complete building the same projects?
I remember from 2008 “Drill, baby drill!” that the environmentalist response was that we society should drill under Detroit*, meaning increase automobile CAFE standards to force a decrease in consumption of oil and energy. (*= I had seen a play, ‘The Madwoman of Chaillot’, stopping the drilling for oil under Paris France. I recommend it. Internet search trying to find the title more quickly returns that there is oil under Paris.) (If environmentalists could just completely stop extraction of oil, instead of having to convince us to use renewables instead, they would!)
The sailors on USNavy ships for Epstein Fury are running out of food
In message exchanges with him that she shared with USA TODAY, the sailor said service members on the ship eat when they can, and they divvy up food evenly when one person gets more than the others.
Supplies “are going to get really low,” and the crew doesn’t anticipate any port visits until the ship returns from its mission, he wrote in a message on March 11.
“Morale is going to be at an all-time low,” he wrote.
Karen Erskine-Valentine, pastor of a church in Shepherdstown, West Virginia, said she was alarmed to hear from a community member whose son is in the Middle East aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln about the poor quality of food on the ship.
The Abraham Lincoln is one of two aircraft carriers sent to the region, along with the USS Gerald Ford. A third, the USS George H.W. Bush, is on the way
“The food is tasteless and there’s not nearly enough and they’re hungry all the time,” Erskine-Valentine said. “That kind of breaks your heart.”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/16/iran-war-mail-packages-middle-east/89609308007/
No, it doesn’t break my heart that a little mercenary accomplice in a criminal war bent on genocide is hungry.
Hope those terrorists starve to death.
An entirely appropriate fate, given that millions WILL starve to death because of this American terrorist campaign.
And the USS Eisenhower carrier had a fire in the laundry room…
The results of the taco economy that just keeps getting “better.”
Mish ski areas in Vermont do not always get power when or in the quantity they wish, regardless of ability to pay. Why should AI datacenters be treated any differently?
And by the way – who is going to end up paying for the overexpansion when the chips that are used become more efficient as is always the case? Or when better methods are developed that require less compute? I fully expect socialized losses.
AI Data centers will soon be (if not so already) defined as having much greater value to a functional society than recreational ski areas. Do you think hospitals should get power before ski areas? If so, then you buy into this hierarchical user economy.
About half of data centers are canceled before being connected to the mains, sometimes even after the foundation having being laid.